Newbie 1361: The Ninja Council (Game Over)

[mrbungle]

looks fun

UNVOTE:
VOTE: chkflip

[gene1991]

Wth? Seriously bungle? You changed your vote just like that?
Nacho is still my strongest mafia read. Yesterday, I feel like I went with majority vote and voted for someone I was less confident of their mafia status in, and we did end up being wrong. And, idk, I just want to trust my gut this time. So, I don't think I'm going to change my vote from Nacho, not unless there suddenly is a lot more posts from Nacho, David, or Chkflip.

gene you might hate this, but in the last few hours i've begun to feel DEEPLY ambivalent about david, and levi to some degree. hell, the thought crossed my mind that pirate might actually be scum and that scared the shit out of me. (kinda joking about that... she is prob town but the replacement's lack of effort is worrying)

since D2 the activity has dropped to like nothing, people just aren't posting and i'm getting paranoid that this might be because people are wrong about either nacho or hawk/flip so the scum don't feel like they need to post anything.

soooo my solution is that I'm going to try my best to refrain from posting so I can see where the conversation goes when I'm not here yelling about nacho

also fuck having so many replacements (nothing against the players who replace, just there are so many of them) 3 replacements before the middle of d2 is just absurd. i feel like we've had to start the game all over again but with two less townies to start out with. SO mafia-favored imo.

Well I've thought about that too, I've thought about what if Nacho flips town, who would be whose partner then? David and Chkflip? No, it makes more sense that we are right about Nacho.
I feel more and more confident that Levi is town with his posts. I feel like I should just go off what I know now, and deal with tomorrow when tomorrow comes. Basically, if I am wrong about Nacho, tomorrow I'll think about what that would mean. But for now, what there is to think about is if he is maf based on what we have before us.

I also think that if we refrain from posting, nothing will happen. Maybe I just hit refresh to much, but you eliminate all of the posts from you, me, and Pirate, and then look at the frequency of the posts, it's sad. and if you eliminate all the posts people made because they were answering a question you asked them directly, there's like what, 2 posts left, over a period of a week or so now.

I don't think getting replacements has been as much of a problem as the lack of posting has been. I would be fine with a few more players getting replaced as long as the new replacements posted more often. Yesterday there was like 5 people who were barely ever posting. And there's not 5 mafia. So, I don't think the lack of posting means that we are wrong about Nacho. Nacho, or anyone, is not even going to get lynched unless people start posting and voting. And we can wait and see how it plays out, but if players start jumping aboard the Chkflip bandwagon more, then I'm going to take that as Chkflip being town, because I think it's possibly telling that mafia isn't jumping aboard a Nacho lynch.

[gene1991]

After Isoing david I now push him back to third likely to be scum which then puts Chkflip in first place

What's Isoing ?

[mrbungle]

Wth? Seriously bungle? You changed your vote just like that?

twas intended to be a pressure vote. reason i didn't say nothin is becasue if you announce that your vote is only a "pressure vote" then you've basically called your own bluff. pressure votes should look like 'intent to lynch' votes otherwise they dont strike fear in the hearts of scum. yet here i am talking about it lol...

WATCH OUT chkflip i is pressure voting you be WARNNED!!!

also i don't think my vote on nacho is doing any good. he's pretty obviously scum but people want to wait so we can "have more discussion." the frustrating irony in this is that the people who are are all gungho about waiting to get more discussion are the people who are making no effort to generate discussion. i am not in favor of having less discussion. i am in favor of having lots of discussion within a smaller time frame. waiting forever and being all passive just allows nacho to do what he's doing. i think we should make some kind of ultimatum like "yo nacho we will lynch you in x days if you don't start taking the game seriously."

i did another round of those charty things and yet again i ended up with nacho + hawk scumteams as the most common result

anyways, drunk posting is probably bad so i'll stop.

actually no.... speaking of such, i didn't like nacho's drunk post. it's a fucking forum, you don't have to be completely incoherent just because you're drunk. town people who are about to get lynched have no reason to be incoherent.so what nacho's doing just looks like more stalling to me. i'm not accusing him of being sober but i am accusing him of feigning incoherence so that we don't hold him accountable for not explaining reads

[mrbungle]

,

I also think that if we refrain from posting, nothing will happen. Maybe I just hit refresh to much, but you eliminate all of the posts from you, me, and Pirate, and then look at the frequency of the posts, it's sad. and if you eliminate all the posts people made because they were answering a question you asked them directly, there's like what, 2 posts left, over a period of a week or so now.

yes this is frustrating. all game long various people have accused me of talking too much. and lots of these people aren't providing any content of their own. david for example, (while i think he';s town) prety much only posts when answering a direct question.

so if you guys want me to be less, as many have put it, "destructive," then how about making an effort to generate some discussion yourselves? maybe if i dont go to sleep, and wake up with 0 new posts to read I won't feel the need to spam the hell out of the thread

[chkflip]

/chortle

druuuuunk as fuck rihgt now.

MOD WTF UPDATE OP

[leviathan93]

After Isoing david I now push him back to third likely to be scum which then puts Chkflip in first place

What's Isoing ?

Isoing is when you look at only a specific players posts. you can do that by going down to the bottom of the page and instead of seeing everyones post you can pick a person and then only see their posts. how many and what number out of the whole it is. it allows you to see their playstyle and meaning without other context. can be helpful.

[mrbungle]

/chortle

druuuuunk as fuck rihgt now.

MOD WTF UPDATE OP

hey mann how's it going

got dem read's yet? we be all low on dat shit, fiends be fiending ya know? need mo product all up in dis. when we gon get dat re-up? stash be runnin low dog, yea hear? got all dis territory, but it aint doin' no good with all dis weak shit we been gettin'

[Nachomamma8]

The main reason I don't like David Jones is because of the disconnect between his posting and how sure he is of his scumread on mrbungle. All game, he has tunneled on bungle and hasn't really put forward many reads of his own. He didn't really put too much input into the NicCage lynch, but was fairly sure to throw immediate blame for mislynch on (guess who) bungle after the fact.

town player dont eagerly go to lynch like random... they observe who they suspect to get more information on possible other scum
also town player try to get others to vote for the same person ....if what i'm saying is true and acceptable then automatically others will follow
only mafia have to push their agenda and try to manipulate the town

Aaand despite this sort of mindset, DJ hasn't really done any looking into anyone else for any scum possibilities, yet have held popular lynch targets near the top of his list for the longest time.

ok ...@mrbungle i see your point of view too ....so i just have to assume you are hyperactive townie for now

...and then after tunneling bungle the entire fucking game, he just suddenly starts trusting him and calling him hyperactive townie and adopts his scumreads completely?
I don't really think that a flip-flop of that magnitude really shows a town mindset. I think that he opposed bungle early because he thought he was going to get in trouble after egging on the gene quickhammer, but when he saw no one was really pushing his lynch, decided to switch what horse he was backing and started posturing for an inactive lynch.

Hawk's posting is interesting, but there are a few things that I picked up on that make things even more interesting.

mrbungle is either an awful townie or mafia. Either way he's a good vote. He's pushed one of the flimsier cases I've ever seen, switched his strongest scumread to a townread within 11 posts, and contradicted himself. Oh yeah, and gene1991 is town because of his newbie status (according to mrbungle). Outstanding.

The reasoning for his vote here is exactly the same as DJ's reasons for voting bungle in #165, which means that it's not likely that they are scum together. While I can easily see scum picking up on town's reason for a case, I can't really see scum picking up on his buddy's reasoning for a vote and following him on it. DJ also never gives any indication that he's picking up on this from Hawk, which definitely suggests scum more than town.

The reason I looked at mrbungle's gene read is the following. I disagreed with the reasoning for considering gene town at that point in the game because I thought mrbungle had mischaracterized gene. Thus, it looked like he had fabricated a town read (which would fall in line with scum knowing who town are) and I was interested in seeing what he would say if I brought it up. I didn't make a big deal about it (our discussion lasted all of three posts from me) because it looked like a dead end. The only reason I have discussed it since is because others have brought it up.

This theory seems definitely seems like a town frame of mind, and the fact that he didn't follow up on it ever but had a pretty well-hashed out reason for asking the question in the first place. I didn't really like the question because it seemed like he was attacking bungle's townreads because he was afraid of them sticking, but that definitely wasn't the case.

David jones. (Read is slowly changing based on posts and his perspective, was initially in the scummy slot)

What made David Jones look scummy and what brought him up to null?

He also did a good job of questioning multiple people on multiple angles; didn't fall into the tunneling trap like DJ did and felt pretty invested in figuring out people's alignments. Chkflip came in and was town as fuck so I don't really think that the slot is scum.

Leviathan's 132 is a bunch of wishy washy crap that only allows him to call someone town if and only if he discredits them first. Exemplified in his read on bungle. The rest of his reads are generally nothing strong, nothing special, except for the Hawk townread which ended up going into a flip that was also pretty fucking scummy and immediately moving to pressure vote him instead of DJ or I was strange, awkward. I do think that levi would be conscious of his buddy getting replaced, meaning that it's not likely that the two are scum together.

[Nachomamma8]

Vote: David Jones

[BlazeJP]

Hey up, sorry for inactivity but was away in Liverpool with with my footy team for the weekend. Once I've had a quick read this aching and creaking soul with chip in.

[mrbungle]

nacho so who else is maf? you kinda eliminated hawk AND levi from being paired up with david. everyone else i think you have as town so... who's the other scum?

[Nachomamma8]

DJ and levi is still my preferred team pick. Where did I imply that DJ and levi didn't work great together?

[mrbungle]

oh nvm, misread

[mrbungle]

well.... all the things you said you didn't like about david are the things i also don't like about him. to add to your list, he doesn't offer up original content. most of his stuff is him responding to direct questions. him being scum would be very nice, as it means i don't have to assume there's a townie who's capable of saying the dumb shit david's said so far

so congrats i guess... i no longer think you and hawk MUST scum.... now i think you and david is a possibility lol
UNVOTE:
VOTE: nacho

gonna go back to my vote on nacho. i liked the stuff he said about david, but i didn't really like the ways he was using to give other people reads. a lot of his reads are based on association therios which just seems like a really odd mindset for a townie to be using. ESP nacho. i expect nacho would be able to provide reads that are based on more than "i don't think these two can be scum together"

so nacho.... gonna need to hear more from you about levi

[Nachomamma8]

What is based on association theory?

[mrbungle]

"I do think that levi would be conscious of his buddy getting replaced, meaning that it's not likely that the two are scum together."

"The reasoning for his vote here is exactly the same as DJ's reasons for voting bungle in #165, which means that it's not likely that they are scum together. "

I don't have an issue with the logic behind those statements. What I don't like is that they seemed to be a core part of your reads when there are so many other (and more reliable) methods of divining alignments. What I'm getting at is they seem a bit like scum-explanations..... grounded in truth/logic, but kinda tangential to the main body of arguments a townie would normally use

Also, I really don't see levi as scum. I think you might be able to convince me to not lynch you and lynch david, but you're really gonna have to come up with something good to convince me of levi.

[chkflip]

Still voting for what's convenient, I see. Read up.

VOTE: mrbungle

meta states this might be nachoscum, but I've got a much stronger bunglescum read after everything.

1] The aforementioned calls my slot scum-then-town-then-scum flip-floppery.

2] Votes where convenient, notice his vote is fourth (L-1 vote) on the NicCage wagon and, oh snaps, third (L-1) on the Nachowagon.

I could come with more but I simply don't have time right this second.

town: gene, levi
null: everyone else except
scum: bungle
most likely to be partner: unknown, I'm going to have to dig deeper in the re-read but I'm very confident with my vote.

[Nachomamma8]

I don't have an issue with the logic behind those statements. What I don't like is that they seemed to be a core part of your reads when there are so many other (and more reliable) methods of divining alignments

You'd be wrong in assuming that they are a core part of my arguments.

[Nachomamma8]

I think you might be able to convince me to not lynch you and lynch david, but you're really gonna have to come up with something good to convince me of levi.

This is also a really, REALLY weird thing to tell your top scum suspect.

[mrbungle]

ok i'm really liking a david lynch right now

in D1 david completely avoids mentioning anything at all about the nic lynch. imo his tunnel on me was a facade he was using so that he could just let the nic lynch happen and avoid any responsibility for it while still having something to post about

@flip ur read is bad. so what if I change my read on your slot? this game has gone on how long now... a couple weeks? you really expect someone to not change their reads during that time?

and you still haven't said what you mean by "convenient to do so." do I look like I'm just sheeping thread sentiment? do I look like I'm scared to attack anyone? do I look like I care about how townie or scummy my play look?

it seems like you're accusing me of... idk... i really cant tell. you've designated the frequency of my attacks on players as a scumtell without bothering to explain why it's a scumtell.

[mrbungle]

I think you might be able to convince me to not lynch you and lynch david, but you're really gonna have to come up with something good to convince me of levi.

This is also a really, REALLY weird thing to tell your top scum suspect.

it's just leveling. i want you to explain your scumread on levi because I don't buy it at all. the reasons you gave for david were good but the stuff you've said about levi so far is not convincing

[chkflip]

The magnitude at which you've jumped reads scum to me.

You didn't just go scum to null to town to null to scum. It was scum to town to scum. AND THEN you backed off of me when you were clearly looking like you were in the wrong from our previous engagement, or so that's how I'm reading your "I smoked a cigarette" post.

Your voting patterns have also been very, very safe to the extent that you're not so much sheeping the thread as you are following the flow of other people's reads. The difference being that you find "new reasons" to vote someone and it reads to me like you're going with the safe vote. Note how you didn't vote me until someone else had already done so.

You don't read like town, either, so there's that.

[Nachomamma8]

I think you might be able to convince me to not lynch you and lynch david, but you're really gonna have to come up with something good to convince me of levi.

This is also a really, REALLY weird thing to tell your top scum suspect.

it's just leveling. i want you to explain your scumread on levi because I don't buy it at all. the reasons you gave for david were good but the stuff you've said about levi so far is not convincing

Levi is an emotional player, but I find he's easiest to catch him out on tone. I haven't really heard the town tone that I'm used to hearing, but I haven't heard a tone I can point to as scum quite yet. There's a few other things that point me from side to side as I observed, but that's the main point I have while reading levi.

[Nachomamma8]

Seeing how he reacts to my DJ push is probably going to do wonders for that read, though.