Newbie 1351: Hyrule's Under Attack.. Interesting..-GAME OVER

[fferyllt]

mac do you believe GM's claim?

[Ineffective]

Its not practical, it is gutless... If you are lynching scum they have no reason not to claim PR - THUS if you are not willing to lynch a claimed pr YOU WILL NOT LYNCH SCUM

[Ineffective]

Mac do you have a reason not to vote GM aside him claiming pr?

[Mac]

Thats not the fucking point. We have no cc, and I personally have no reason not to believe GM's claim.

[Mac]

Mac do you have a reason not to vote GM aside him claiming pr?

I've had a townread on her for most of d2 now, and I still haven't read some of the last few pages prior to gm's claim right now.

[Ineffective]

alsoi might do well to note that there are a garunteed 2 scum members and there are 1 or two prs - therefore math-like logic makes his pr claim less likely to be truthfull,,, more than 50% he isnt pr

This happens to be a greater chance than the amount of luck it takes for him to claim a PRthat isnt in the setup which is 50%

[Ineffective]

If you townread him that is a more respectable reason not to vote him - just dont blame it on his PR status that is a copout

[Mac]

Well I'm not but I'd never lynch a claimed PR with no CC regardless. I made the mistake of hammering our cop in my first newbie game.

[fferyllt]

Thats not the fucking point. We have no cc, and

I personally have no reason not to believe GM's claim.

I wish your reason was a little stronger than this somehow. GM hasn't given me a strong reason to believe her claim. The sprinkling of "keep" in her posts is a point, but when I'm scum I sometimes set up claims game days in advance of making them.

she's positing that Z7 and Eye/Ineffective are the scum team, in which case Z7 would have been on his own to decide the scum night actions on night 1. Eye didn't log in again between his last post and daybreak day 2. Deras strikes me as an odd kill for Z7 to pick. Z7 could have specified that Eye was doing the kill even though Eye had flaked,

[Mac]

I actually wasn't sure about the claim because keep is such a common word BUT i haven't looked at the posts at all. It looks well thought out for a fakeclaim PLUS laying the foundations so early means she would've had to commit to JK regardless of what happened.

[Ineffective]

Ya derus was on that GM wagon that failed --- ffer can you crt+f. GMs iso on this thread for "keep" and compare it in proportion to the thread we were looking at earlier? I cant ctrlF on a phone

[Ineffective]

Mac. Saying the word "keep" isnt a crumb that is commital as it would be overlooked had he not mentioned it - try again

[Mac]

Well i haven't seen the posts so don't know how obvious this keep is.

However your "try again" comment is stupid.

[Ineffective]

Sorry that comment did look a little agro- if you havnt noticed its in my nature to be agressive, and i was getting a little tired of you giving us bad reasons not to lynch him instead of explaining why you thought he was town

[Mac]

You haven't asked for reasons why I thought gm was town, regardless i still don't think we should be lynching a possible PR.

The more you post, the more i wonder if you are scum. some seriously poor posts coming from you if you are town.

[fferyllt]

she used the word "keep" 15 times before role claiming. She used "keeping" once. 263 posts total.

My posts have 7 occurrances of "keep", "keeps" etc. prior to her claim. 426 posts total.

[Ineffective]

What about his posts on other thread - that is something more scientific to compare it to than someone elses posting

[Ineffective]

*her

I must be reading masculine qualities into GM somehow - maybe its the avatar idk

[fferyllt]

In micro 137 GM used the words 4 times in 36 posts.

[Ineffective]

15/263 = 0.05703
4/36= 0.11111

Git nailed

[Ineffective]

So not only did he not use the word keep more than he usually does - he used it more often in the other thread by about twice as much... Which makes up for the margin of error in a smaller games sample size by far

[Ineffective]

Someone should hammer this ... I have zero doubt as of now. His crumb was proved to be a fabrication which dispells any doubts i had before

[Ineffective]

If you want we can compare it to a game he played as town too--- in case you are wondering if the word "keep" is something he uses more often as scum

[fferyllt]

Might be worthwhile. Especially in a game with less than 50 posts, statistical methods are suspect.

[Ineffective]

They would be suspect to me had it not been doubled up in the other game compared to a game where he was supposedly inseting it - but we can run every game if you want - i suspect the results would show that he undoubtably did not crumb at all and used it as a convenient thing to say