Newbie 1351: Hyrule's Under Attack.. Interesting..-GAME OVER

[fferyllt]

paranoia is healthy in mafia, but Z7 the degree to which you're focused on VE appears to be to dangerously exclusive.

[Mac]

paranoia is healthy in mafia, but Z7 the degree to which you're focused on VE appears to be to dangerously exclusive.

Absolutely agreed.

[Z7-852]

I'am just paranoid about how this whole mass claim turned out. And because it was made by the player that I suspect most that makes me even more uneasy. And about the 15%. That's the probability that there are jail keeper and doctor in the game. Probability for VisceraEyes claim to be true given goodmornings claim is true is mathematically even smaller. I'am sorry about all this math but I have been doing economical scenario analysis for the past few days and I see probability factors everywhere.

[fferyllt]

I'am just paranoid about how this whole mass claim turned out. And because it was made by the player that I suspect most that makes me even more uneasy. And about the 15%. That's the probability that there are jail keeper and doctor in the game. Probability for VisceraEyes claim to be true given goodmornings claim is true is mathematically even smaller. I'am sorry about all this math but I have been doing economical scenario analysis for the past few days and I see probability factors everywhere.

It's quite odd to me that both the role claimants are at the scum end of your meter.

[goodmorning]

That is odd. After all, there's a 0% chance that there are no PRs in this game.

[Z7-852]

I'dont think both of them are scum, but haven't made my mind who to trust or should I trust both.

[Ineffective]

Gif.. Hellooo¿¿¿¿¿

i want some kind of confirmation that you come off as forced to people when you are a town VT.... i dont even see those posts as forced but its all perspective.

As I said, it only applies to EM, hence off-topic.

If it only apllies to EM why did you relate it to a MS game

[Ineffective]

Ok now that VE has claimed i propose a mini-game that i would like for everyone to participate in...

Lets ignore who we fos for a moment and do a team analysis

Take every player and explore "if x is scum who is thier partner"

Multiple answers are ok but try to slim it down to the most likely results

If we see one person that nobody can see being anyones partner, we can assume they are town or that they are highly skilled in distancing
If one person is paired with several people they can be more likely to be scum OR wishy-washy null town
If two people are consistantly paired, they just might be the scumteam

If anyone wants to take it a step further we can also table out "if x is scum these people are town"

I think this could give us a fresh perspective and open up any minds that are clogged up atm--- EG both me and Z7 are currently deathtunelling one of the PRclaims... It is not possible that both are scum

[VisceraEyes]

I'm intrigued. This will have to wait until after work though.

I've never specifically pairhunted though...should be entertaining at the least.

[fferyllt]

will give it a go when I stop being headachy. In a recent game orcinus and I did POE on 3 possible pairs to figure out who couldn't be scum with each other. it worked pretty well, but we had things somewhat narrowed at that point.

[VisceraEyes]

I mean, I would say we've got a pretty decent chance of having it narrowed already with 2 uncc'd claims and some strong townish presences. I'm going to remain cautiously optimistic about our chances here regardless of how this lynch goes.

[Ineffective]

Ya i was trying to add a layer of logic to our pre-existing poe... Fairly confident that after this excersize we can agree on a lynch... mine will come in a few hours after some irl stuff and some rereading d1

[fferyllt]

Revenus/GiF and Mac

Revenus voted Deras (over a comment Deras made about Fropome), Mac agreed about comment (could be scum could be newbtown)

Both encouraged Carey to replace out when he complained about 3 page of thread*

Re the GM/Me kerfuffle Mac took sides, and Revenus distanced (suggested a Carey lynch)

Rev foses ArcAngel for the non-random role assignment assumption, stays on Carey

Mac votes Carey when I unvote ArcAngel after Carey put her at L-1.

Rev had Fropome/Z7 solidly as town. Mac has argued against this off and on, on post 760 he backs away from the Z-wagon that formed after VE joined the game.

After not mentioning Eye at all to speak of besides the thing about Eye saying that statistics supporting AA9 (when they DIDN'T damn it), Mac joins the Eye wagon on late day 1.


GIF pretty seamlessly picks up Rev's town reads with the exception of VE (Rev had him as scum)


Gif and Mac tangle over Deras kill, specifically Mac's post 1414.

GiF and Mac exchange votes. GiF joins the day 2 Mac wagon, and Mac calls it opportunistic

Mac's preferred lynches are GiF and ineffective.

I think there's a mild/weak case for Mac/Rev on a scum team together, Not so sure about GiF/Mac, though I could see scum-GiF deciding Mac's day 2 wagon wasn't salvageable and Mac throwing out a distancing vote with the expectation of being lynched. He's been consistent with his vote since then.


* had to lol. This is the longest Newbie thread on the site by quite a margin and we're still in Day 2

[Ineffective]

Ok cool you put alot of thought into that... Now if you could condense it to a left and a right colum with x on the left and x's potential partbers on the right so it can be quoted with the other lists later for a quick side by side compariaon later that would be awesome

[Ineffective]

Owait i just noticed that whope thing was about one pair lol... More in depth than i thought

[fferyllt]

My first try was a process test. The summarizing helps me, but I don't know if it's useful for others to read. I could steam that level of analysis down to 4-5 sentences probably if preferred.

[TraceyLyn11]

VOTE COUNT 2.9

[L-4] Z7-852:

[L-4] fferyllt:

[L-2] Mac: (GuyInFreezer, VisceraEyes)

[L-2] Ineffective: (Mac, goodmorning)

[L-3] VisceraEyes: (Z7-852)

[L-4] GuyInFreezer:

[L-3] goodmorning: (Ineffective)

Not Voting:

1 (fferyllt)

• With seven alive, it takes four to lynch.
  
• Day Two's deadline: May 16, 2013 CST or in (expired on 2013-05-16 15:30:00).
  
• V/LA: No one.

[Ineffective]

I'am just paranoid about how this whole mass claim turned out. And because it was made by the player that I suspect most that makes me even more uneasy. And about the 15%. That's the probability that there are jail keeper and doctor in the game. Probability for VisceraEyes claim to be true given goodmornings claim is true is mathematically even smaller. I'am sorry about all this math but I have been doing economical scenario analysis for the past few days and I see probability factors everywhere.

This math is wrong them must exist.. Therefore you must treat one of them as a constant since there are no other PR claims

So factoring in the knowledge we currently have there can only be 3 scenarios- one of which is the scenario where both exist in this setup 33% chance mate

[Ineffective]

This math is wrong as one of them must exist*

[Ineffective]

Of the 66% chance that only one pr exists--- i am more inclined to believe VE--- not only for looking town --- also because GM's claim was made under duress and VE's was voluntary

[Ineffective]

Tenative list pending further research... To give you an idea of what i invision the concise and quotable versions would look like after any analysis you want to include--- im guna start with my biggest townreads --- for science!

x - could be scum with

Ffer - Mac
VE - Gif
Z7 - mac
Gif - mac/VE/GM
Mac -GM/ z7/ffer/gif
GM - mac/gif

[goodmorning]

Voluntary claims end to skeev me out, personally.

Speaking FMPOV:
If Z is Scum, his partner could be {Ine, ff, VE}
If ff is Scum, her partner could be {Ine, Z}
If Mac is Scum, his partner could be {GIF}
If Ine is Scum, his partner could be {ff, VE, Z}
If VE is Scum, his partner could be {Ine, Z}
If GIF is Scum, his partner could be {Mac}

[Ineffective]

So i guess if we were gunna base the lynch off of my list alone, the lynch would be mac--- but we have multiple perspectives to figure into this equation and i still have to finish reading d1!

Pedit- awesome list

[goodmorning]

Why don't you think ff and I could be partners?

[goodmorning]

(I ask because we've been accused of it by your slot before)