Newbie 1351: Hyrule's Under Attack.. Interesting..-GAME OVER

[Ineffective]

Mostly because she stayed on the wagon on you for a while--- but in the case with mac she unvoted as soon as he hit L-1 and gave his "let me out reads"

[goodmorning]

Mmm, fair enough. You've thought deeply about this, I see.

[Ineffective]

Err wait... She asked for someone to unvote... She wasnt even on that wagon was she

[goodmorning]

Which wagon when?

[Ineffective]

She declared intent to hammer... Then he said somethibg she viewed as a towntell and asked for an unvote...

[Ineffective]

On mac right before i switched the wagon onto you

[goodmorning]

I see.

Or rather, I don't see, because I'm too lazy right this second to try to figure out which of her 500 posts is relevant to this situation.

[Ineffective]

Ya this has been a pretty damn long game but ya... I dont scumread her... But if she was scum that would be a damn good way to protect her partner from a lynch without suffering too much scrutiny

[fferyllt]

Mac and Fropome/Z7

There was essentially zero interaction between Mac and Fropome. From Fropome's side this could be scum distancing if his slot is scum. Z7 and Mac began interacting almost from Z7's first posts. Z7 was leaning town on Mac. Mac said he looked somewhat suspicious (post]693[/post] and others. Mac is one of the players that Z7 has consistently interacted with.

Z's vote on VE after a lot of hemming and hawing could be seen as a protective move of Mac, whom VE was voting. Though I would not expect to see this behavior in my home environment, I see people make cases that scum protect/support each other here at MS. It's really a foreign concept to me.

So, it's a weak case for Mac/Z7 as a pairing.

Reading through this iso, I think it gave me enough to also conclude that Z7/VE is not a viable pairing.

Z's focus on VE originally on day 1 could have helped lead to a lynch, I think. His focus since then seems almost like a safety zone - he can dither and rant about VE but not worry about facing the music re a mislynch.

I can't see a case for them being partners.

[fferyllt]

Gah. I really don't have the focus to do this rigorously. Still fighting a headache.

[Ineffective]

You are putting more effort into it than i am ffer... I used logic but didnt type it all out with so much reasoning.... Kudos to that... Im still rereading and your posts are giving me some things to focus on

[fferyllt]

Voluntary claims end to skeev me out, personally.

Speaking FMPOV:
If Z is Scum, his partner could be {Ine, ff, VE}
If ff is Scum, her partner could be {Ine, Z}
If Mac is Scum, his partner could be {GIF}
If Ine is Scum, his partner could be {ff, VE, Z}
If VE is Scum, his partner could be {Ine, Z}
If GIF is Scum, his partner could be {Mac}

This list demonstrates a huge wtf to me - not so much about you personally, but about how scum teams play mafia at MS. I have seen logic like this used to support FoSes/votes in other games I've played at MS, and it worried the hell out of me when my scum partner in my first newbie game always had me at the top of his town pile.

If you have me down as a potential partner of ineffective and Z7, then logically I think you should have me as a potential partner with VE too. Why not?

[Ineffective]

Something i noticed about his list is that his top 2 fosses match up with how many potential partners each player could have from his point of view--- i almost wonder if that was intentional... I mean i guess its natural in some ways to have that happen--- but mac isnt the top of my scum reads, GM is--- yet in my list i can only see two potential partners for gm and 4 for mac.... He has expressed an equally high level of fos sauce for me and Z and lo and behold we have an equal amount of potential partners

[Ineffective]

aLso i just dont see the mac and gif being not only the most likely partners for each other but the only likely partners for each other

[fferyllt]

Eye/ineffective - Careyhammer/VE

Eye pushed carey to leave the game. I'm vaguely wondering if scum-Carey's partner would want him replaced (Mac, Eye, Rev). This is hard to entertain because Carey's replace-out left me thinking he's town and VE has improved on that read.

Eye/Ineffective - Mac

His read of Mac moved around. I thought the reasons for moving were good, but could also be seen as following town around.

Eye/Ineffective - GiF

Did not like Revenus at first. Moved him up his list. Never interacted directly with GiF

Eye/Ineffective - GM

said GM's case on me was not just bad, but scummy. Thought both of us looked scummy for backing off each other "too quickly". did not like my meta-based reason for backing off.

Eye/Ineffective - VE

really bad reaction to VE. demands he read the thread came off the AA wagon over it. When VE demonstrates working knowledge of thread, he moves to GM "for Deras"? On reread I hate myself for considering him possibly scum over his late day 1 frustration with VE, AA9 and GM.

Ineffective ran through a bunch of wagons quickly. Were any non-starters? I don't think so. deathtunneling on GM - un-cc'd PR but GM has been lazy and sloppy at times.

[fferyllt]

Z7-852 - Mac, GiF
Mac - Z7, GM, maaaaybe GiF
Ineffective - GiF, VE, Z7
VisceraEyes - maybe Ineffective
GuyInFreezer - Z7, Ineffective, GM maaaaybe Mac
goodmorning - Mac, GiF

[VisceraEyes]

I'm just going to do my townreads because I wouldn't be surprised if any of the people I have as null/scummy are scum with each other. My strongest scumteam atm is [red]Mac/GM[/red], but GM has claim JK and I'm now on the fence with her. I still don't like the claim, but whatever we can not lynch it.

fferyllt: fferyllt is scum. I'm not going to go over her posts...she's hyperactive. Perhaps compensating? I'd guess if fferyllt is scum then her partner is a lurker, or semi-lurker. Z fits that description,

and

Z replaced her hypertownread Frop. Not sure if Frop fits the description of lurker, though he DID replace out. Her townread of Frop was by her own admission meta-based, which quite neatly allows her to not have to explain some of Frop's questionable thread actions.

She basically killed the momentum on a Mac lynch earlier today too, but on the other hand she was bringing attention to him when he was inactive before that. :/ And anytime she voted Mac it definitely lacked any kind of sincerity or conviction...it seemed to be obligatory like every time.

fferyllt, Z7

,

fferyllt, Mac

Ineffective: Inef is scum. Frankly I thought EU was scum at the end of the day D1, so okay.

He didn't even mention GM until the whole "rolefishing" thing...which is kinda ironic if you think about it because it was Inef's deathtunnel that ended up inspiring GM's claim. Like, if GM is town and Inef scum, I would expect to see more of a fire to GM's posts...anger that Inef's "evil rolefishing scheme" worked like she said he was doing all along. If GM is fake-claiming, I can definitely see Inef being her partner. Think about it: consider that she could have already been planning to fake-claim considering the heat she was under D1, and considering she claims to have crumbs. So a "deathtunnel bus" would be an appropriate in that scenario.

The only thing I don't like about the theory is how hard GM was after EU D1. That's a pretty hard, consistent bus. But presuming the claim is fake and planned, it could all be a part of the ruse. I can definitely see GM as scum with Inef.

Inef's reluctance to vote Mac was pretty worrisome. I mean, he easily added his vote to the tally for Z, myself, GiF and GM, but he had something of a crisis of indecision once GM claimed JK and I was pushing for people to vote Mac instead.

Ineffective, goodmorning

,

Ineffective, Mac

[VisceraEyes]

Which...kinda worries me actually. If we lynch Mac and he flips red, both of my townreads look worse as a result. :/

[VisceraEyes]

And frankly because of that, Mac flipping red should make ME look worse to both of my townreads.

Man, is it bad that I'm rooting for one of my scumreads to flip town? LMAO

[fferyllt]

finally some paranoia.

[VisceraEyes]

I know exciting right? It's why we play ^^

Anyway I feel like we can suss it out. After all, it may not matter anyway because I'm like guaranteed to die if GM is scum fake-claiming (barring WIFOM shenannies) and likely to die if she's town (depending on whether she protects me and whether scum target me if she doesn't).

[Ineffective]

Thats some pretty far fetched paranoia, but ill buy it. Personally i would read myself as GIFs partner for not pushing on gif when he was the only person left in my null POE to push on, which i explained by having a slight PRread on him... almost like i was asking him to claim PR

Man im really having an out of body experience here, did i just pair myself on a scumteam lol!

No but seriously... I see that as a more likely read than that of with mac or GM--- i can kinda buy the mac bit bc me unvoting could be viewed as me using ffers plea as an excuse to push on someone else... But GM? If he was my partner why would i call on GIF to hammer him if he was a PR? (i didnt say hey gif, but i did say "if there are ANYprs not voting GM please hammer because of my strong pr read on you)

Why would i debunk the (in my view) bad logic of unvoting a scumbucket because he claimed pr? and get in a hissy over it with mac? Oh ya theres a reason why im not macs partner too--- i genuinely thought he was being idiotic for the blind faith in "dont lynch pr claims" and was terribly frustrated at him

[Z7-852]

I like this pairing thing. It gives a idea how other people see the game currently. I even compiled data to spread sheet so its easier to see with one clench. I really liked fferyllt (#2112) analysis of possible GuyInFreeze and Mac pair. Also her case (#2133) on me and mac was good reading. Inneffetive post (#2136) was less useful for me. I really like reading this kind of cases because it helps to see other peoples views and they can help to clear ones mind about their own reads.

Goodmornings reads (#2121) were fun to read. First of all she had GuyInFreeze and Mac pair. If this wasn't the case almost any other pair is possible (where she isn't in). This either means that she doesn't have reads on other pairs or first one is a strong read.

This is also first time that VisceraEyes (in my opinion) have opened up (#2141) his reads in good cases. But in this post the whole Ineffective/goodmorning case don't really work for me.

Personally I don't see goodmorning/VisceraEyes team to possible like I saw before. Also I don't think Mac is partnering with ether one. But GuyInFreeze and Mac pair (someones that have been howering in my null zone the whole game) seems to be quite popular. Especially Mac (that I have been leaning to null/scum lately) is a prime target. If he flips scum, it would clear lot of suspicions off goodmorning and VisceraEyes in my mind.

VOTE: Mac
I think this puts him to L-1.

And my math isn't wrong like inneffective liked to point out (#2117). You have to consider what is probability of VisceraEyes being a Doctor if goodmorning is a jail keeper. Is simple case of Bayesian probability.

[Ineffective]

To use bayesian probability to justify your end calculation, you have to pretend there is missing information that we currently have...

We know there is no cop because everyone has claimed. This eliminates the unceartainty of 3 options which you are still considering valid

[goodmorning]

Goodmornings reads (#2121) were fun to read. First of all she had GuyInFreeze and Mac pair. If this wasn't the case almost any other pair is possible (where she isn't in). This either means that she doesn't have reads on other pairs or first one is a strong read.

I remain convinced that Scum is {Z, Ine}. These lists are only hypotheticals.