Open 493 - Jungle Republic. (Game Over - Werewolf Victory)

[Bacde]

Princess what I got out of that post is that you are willing to look for evidence to fit a case, rather than the other way around

It doesn't necessarily make you scum, but it indicates to me that you are looking for all the wrong things when you are trying to determine who the scum is

My reads have been pretty well explained this game, so it shouldn't seem like magic that I've been finding scum

I'll show you one point in particular that I thought was bad (I have other points as well but I think just 1 is sufficient for an example)

[Bacde]

if you guys lynch fbn I will be very disappointed in you town, time out seriously

Seriously! Don't kill the wolf!!

Ok, this was when I was still assuming fbn was town. I made that assumption of mine clear in the post where I explained that when I replace in I like to assume that the town is wrong and that the largest bandwagons are on town. You aren't trying to construct what you believe my mode of thought to be, you made the conclusion that I am a wolf when you wrote this case before you had even attempted to understand my thoughts.

@Fuzzy

can you make something else up to explain why you are voting for klick please? it would make me feel better

just bs something with better reasoning

Nice job, coach.

This was actually the post that caused me to scumread fbn. Its pretty obvious if you read my ISO this thread that up until that post I had a not-scumread on fbn, and afterwards I was completely willing to lynch fbn.

My belief that fbn was a wolf and klick was a mafia was actually kind of lucky, but I was confident that they were on opposing scum teams and I just got the impression of which team from their posts and the way I felt about them.

Basically, in your "case" on me its pretty obvious that you were just trying to paint me as scummy, rather than try to understand my thought processes. Why is that? What was the purpose of your "case" post?

[Bacde]

So my vote was mostly omgus. :/

Why did you OMGUS vote me after I

unvoted

you?

[Bulbazak]

Sorry about taking so long. My life has gotten rather hectic recently, but I'm back. Going to outline the Princess as mafia case first, and then move on to responses:

you should probably start contributing because the way things look everyone is going to keep disagreeing about our top scumreads and then you will be the compromise lynch of the day at this rate

o7

I'm Town. Just found the thread. Reading now.

Princess was under considerable pressure, and as Bacde said, would have probably been the lynch, as everybody had her slot as scum of some sort. The first thing she does when she replaces in is say that she is town. This seems forced and overdone, as the first thing town would say would not be "I'm town." That's something that scum say to try to appear town. In fact, town tends to not emphasize their alignment as town as much as scum try to, mainly because town knows that they're town and really don't care to repeatedly inform everyone, instead wanting to just find scum.

17 minutes later (of "reading" the thread):

VOTE: Klick

Well. THAT was easy. Klick is the other werewolf. Now we just have to find the mafia goons.

4 minutes after that, Klick self hammers (That was quick...). 2 minutes after that:

^Good Voting^

Translation: "Thanks partner for helping me with the towncred!"

She has then been trying to use that lynch as reason for why she is town (towncred):

I'm not Autti and I'm Town. Also, I helped lynch a non Town as my very first vote. That buys me at least one opportunity to be wrong. So stop tunneling on me because of the former occupant of this slot.

Again she overemphasizes her "towniness", and she is pushing incredibly hard for towncred from the Klick lynch. Her Klick vote, Klick's reaction, and her response to Klick look like partner interaction and her bussing a buddy for towncred. The only way that could happen would be if she was mafia, and not the wolf. It was apparent to me immediately when reading the thread, which is why I am repeatedly saying that Princess is not wolf, but rather mafia.

Bacde, I've made my Princess-mafia case. Make your Princess-wolf case. We'll then discuss the merits and flaws of both. And don't tell me to look in your ISO. Make it fresh and put some effort into it like I have.

[Bacde]

Bacde, I've made my Princess-mafia case. Make your Princess-wolf case. We'll then discuss the merits and flaws of both. And don't tell me to look in your ISO. Make it fresh and put some effort into it like I have.

lol I was actually going to say your princess-mafia case is pretty good

[Bacde]

I still wanna lynch princess though

if she looks like a scum, floats like a scum, and quacks like a scum,

then she's probably a scum

plus if she flips maf you will get mad analytic-cred and I'll be even more willing to help you find the wolf (and be more willing to listen to the possibility of Egg being a wolf)

I want to believe you man but I've got reservations

[Egg]

Princess. This is an open setup. There are no scum power roles.

Didn't even read Bacde's response to princess because it was a BS case and she effectively said so herself before bacde even responded so... yeah. Not worth reading.

Bulb, tell me you don't see how you are stretching bad play and painting it as scumminess...

Bacde, you really think that Bo was saying he'd vote either of Autti and Klick and both were his buddies.

[Bacde]

Bacde, you really think that Bo was saying he'd vote either of Autti and Klick and both were his buddies.

every time someone says "scum would never" a goon earns a scummy

I think Autti is scum and I really don't care if she's mafia or werewolf

I think wolf, but Bulb's case was decent

doesn't really matter to me

[Mac]

NK speculation is making me think Bulb is a wolf, aaaah

[Bulbazak]

I've been wrestling with this a bit in my head all morning. I'm more sure thene is scum than I am with bulb. However, as much as I didn't want to deal with "which scum group should we lynch?", I'm confident in thene being mafia rather than werewolf.

And yes, werewolves can and should shoot mafia. And yes, they did so last night. However, with one mafia left, their odds of doing so are much less now. Also, we don't know if the Bo shot was an attempt at mafia or not because some people had him as town. I think it's better to try to eliminate the NK now.

Seriously! Why is no one seeing this?!

Egg does seem to be unusually sure TNE is mafia. I'm interested to hear his reasoning. Other than that though, I'm not seeing anything overtly wolfish here. Spell it out for me in nice simple words, Bulb?

Everything that Egg has said tends to center around the werewolves in some form or another. Sure, he may talk about needing to hunt the last wolf, but only because saying otherwise would be too strong of a tell against him. The key part of the quote is how he talks about the NK. This feels like he is talking more out of experience, as the one who made the kill, rather than drawing conclusions about it the day after. His question about Bo is more WIFOM related than an actual question, almost as if he is daring everybody to figure out why he shot Bo, secure in the fact that no one will suspect him, precisely because it was him who asked it.

Why is Mac no longer a suspect?

Bulba, why does Klick's flip make Mac conf-town?

Mac is not a werewolf because of the way he jumped on Fuzzy throughout d1, during RVS specifically. Similarly, he can not be mafia because of the way he questioned Klick. As Bacde said, Mac reached that line of questioning on his own, and he pushed the Klick case when Klick was still thought to be town. Therefore, since he is not werewolf with Fuzzy or mafia with Klick, he must be town.

Your basic deductive reasoning is still ignoring the fact that none of the "this should gain me towncred" posts she made came until after the flip.

Well, there was no way she could make those arguments BEFORE the flip.

As many people had Bo as town yesterday compared to those that had him as scum. E.g. me, GM, Bacde had townreads, Bulba, Mac, TNE had him as a scumread. No idea what Egg thought of him.

I had the feeling that Bo was on the suspect list in some form or another, at least null/scum. Maybe it was just me...

What if I'm just a townie who is trying to figure stuff out?

I believe you, but you need to get over your confirmation bias first before you can proceed.

What confirmation bias?

Bacde has suspected me of being scum ever since I revealed d2 that Mac was a scumread. He kept on pushing me on my reasons for this, and then used this as evidence I was scum, saying that I was focusing on Mac too much (which was not true). Even after I conceded my Mac read, he's continued to push me as scum and oppose all of my reasoning, simply because I had the audacity to have a different read on Mac than he did. It doesn't matter what I do at this point, he'll continue to push me as such, even if all the evidence points against him. Hence, confirmation bias.

Bacde, Bulba, stop being snarky and bitching at each other over stupid shit.

I am. I just had a very stressful week last week, and was just overly snarky to the point of self-destruction. On that I apologize, but I'm not going to do anything more, as I'm not going to feed into a 7for7 sense of arrogance.

There were no votes on the slot so it's not like there was any pressure there. The lack of pressure makes your theory really bad.

Actually, there were 3 votes on your slot, putting you at L-3. Almost everybody had you as a scumread of some sort, and you would most likely have been the compromise lynch had the day continued. Therefore, you had quite a bit of pressure on you.

Don't be ridiculous. I didn't even read the 1st page. I looked at the current vote count and wanted to see if Klick was scum or an easy target. In ISO it was glaringly clear Klick was scum [I assumed wolf. I was wrong. So sue me.] and that the wagon was a good one so I voted. No further reading required.

So, no reading and opportunistic vote. Gotcha.

Princess, two things about 1077. One, Bo's scum read on your slot was probably legitimate. I don't think he was just looking for big wagons, especially now knowing that klick was his buddy. I think he wanted you lynched, but was setting up a bus in case he needed it. He had autti as scum late in Day 1. That's why you aren't mafia in my eyes.

That's actually a good point...

I don't see how null/scummy players are influential.

Bo is a strong town player. While I had a null/scum read on him, had he survived and been town, he would have been an important member of the town as the game progressed.

[Bulbazak]

I still wanna lynch princess though

if she looks like a scum, floats like a scum, and quacks like a scum,

then she's probably a scum

plus if she flips maf you will get mad analytic-cred and I'll be even more willing to help you find the wolf (and be more willing to listen to the possibility of Egg being a wolf)

I believe Princess is scum of some flavor, and I'm more willing to lynch her. Here's what I think: If Princess flips mafia, Egg is wolf. If Princess flips wolf, Egg is town and Thene is mafia. Everybody else is town.

Bulb, tell me you don't see how you are stretching bad play and painting it as scumminess...

What "bad play" are we talking about specifically?

NK speculation is making me think Bulb is a wolf, aaaah

What NK speculation is that?

[Mac]

the NK speculation in my head. But I don't think it's working out.

[Syryana]

Wow people got active. I'll catch up with this in a bit.

[Bacde]

Bacde has suspected me of being scum ever since I revealed d2 that Mac was a scumread. He kept on pushing me on my reasons for this, and then used this as evidence I was scum, saying that I was focusing on Mac too much (which was not true). Even after I conceded my Mac read, he's continued to push me as scum and oppose all of my reasoning, simply because I had the audacity to have a different read on Mac than he did. It doesn't matter what I do at this point, he'll continue to push me as such, even if all the evidence points against him. Hence, confirmation bias.

this is probably true

it doesn't mean I'm wrong though

[Bacde]

I think princess is the best lynch of the day

I'm like 1 billion times more likely to trust bulba if princess flips maf

[Bacde]

I believe Princess is scum of some flavor, and I'm more willing to lynch her. Here's what I think: If Princess flips mafia, Egg is wolf. If Princess flips wolf, Egg is town and Thene is mafia. Everybody else is town.

I can agree w/ this reasoning somewhat

and if thene and egg are town, then bulba is the mafia

[Syryana]

So brief impressions I got from reading:

Egg still wants to lynch Bulba

Bulba still wants to lynch Egg

Princess made a bet that she should probably have been modkilled for, since it changed Egg's mind

Princess is still scummy.

Did I miss anything?

[Bacde]

^^Thats about it

[Bulbazak]

So brief impressions I got from reading:

Egg still wants to lynch Bulba

Bulba still wants to lynch Egg

Princess made a bet that she should probably have been modkilled for, since it changed Egg's mind

Princess is still scummy.

Did I miss anything?

I'm considering joining the Princess wagon to see what she flips. Are there any really big hanging issues/questions that need to be discussed?

[Mac]

did people miss the part where princess admitted she was a wolf/scum of some sort?

[Syryana]

I've been good with a Princess/Autti lynch since forever, so no.

[Bulbazak]

did people miss the part where princess admitted she was a wolf/scum of some sort?

Probably, but it's been obvious for awhile.

I believe Princess is scum of some flavor, and I'm more willing to lynch her. Here's what I think: If Princess flips mafia, Egg is wolf. If Princess flips wolf, Egg is town and Thene is mafia. Everybody else is town.

I can agree w/ this reasoning somewhat

and if thene and egg are town, then bulba is the mafia

Bacde, you want to put this to the test, and lynch Princess? Or do you think there is more to discuss?

[zabriel]

Vote Count 3.3

Bulba (Egg) - L-4
Egg (Bulba) - L-4
Princess Proton (Goodmorning, Syryana, Mac) - L-2

Day 3 will end in (expired on 2013-05-30 23:00:00). With 8 alive, it takes 5 votes to lynch.

[Bacde]

did people miss the part where princess admitted she was a wolf/scum of some sort?

yes I missed this?

[Mac]

well she made the stupid bet and then admitted it was rhetorical and never going to happen. ergo she is a wolf.