Gears of War Mafia - ( Game Over! )

[The Goat]

How do people feel about Messiah? there was some things that trouble me with regards to him.

a) his lack of fucking involvement.
b) just.. the set-up. Orange mafia ninja... town tracker... would it make sense for a red watcher?

I wish he was more involved, but I don't see him as scum, much less red scum. He fits as orange scum risking that claim since being orange he could deduce that Pirate was not scum, hence Slaandar did not visit PC.

I'm Going to be ISOing Nero in the following days

.

This.

Nero, I apologize for being so openly hostile, but Jesus do you get under my skin.

I will wait, analyze, then vote.

[Angelious Nero]

I realise that post was not helpful at all but it will come to me.

guille why haven't you been blowing shit up?

Yeah, I ran out of bombs when I tried to blow up Rubi. Had only 3 bombs.

Well that's convenient.

How do people feel about Messiah? there was some things that trouble me with regards to him.

a) his lack of fucking involvement.
b) just.. the set-up. Orange mafia ninja... town tracker... would it make sense for a red watcher?

I wish he was more involved, but I don't see him as scum, much less red scum. He fits as orange scum risking that claim since being orange he could deduce that Pirate was not scum, hence Slaandar did not visit PC.

I'm Going to be ISOing Nero in the following days

.

This.

Nero, I apologize for being so openly hostile, but Jesus do you get under my skin.

I will wait, analyze, then vote.

But all I wanted to know is what you thought of my theory yesterday.

I'm also very very annoyed that MsM didn't respond to my 3498 and just kinda let herself get lynched.

[Angelious Nero]

Mac, I'd like to see your full case on us please. I'm a tad bit concerned how Mac was agreeing with me and kind of budding me and then flips a switch and calls me scum the next day.

[Mac]

i don't know. if it's slandaar v messiah as it was and there both red then a watcher is more suitable role to seem town than fakeclaiming as strongman.

The issue with this theory is the lack of a town watcher. Which town PR do you feel would be absent with two scum teams?

Also, if Messiah was fake claiming, I have no idea why I wouldn't be dead.

You are missing the point of what I said. Orange mafia ninja, invisible to town tracker, possibly invisibile to red watcher? Also you are not dead because you would be reading Messiah as town.

[guille2015]

Doing an ISO on Nero, Slaandar, and KoC yields 500+ posts. I need to narrow things down and systematically do things.

First, let's check how many times Slaandar and Koc Mention Nero. Answer: very little. I checked for every known itteration of the name, so correct me if I missed any:

That seems kinda a reach for this early in a game... I don't even particularly like meta cases at any point in a game, but this early just feels somewhat off.
@

Angelius

: have both heads posted, or is this just Arc/just Nero so far?

OK I read everything after being motivated by Mastins pro buddying technique

Town;
Bork
Mac
Mollie
Goat

Probably town;
Mastin
Jal

I think town:
Majiffy

NC

Undecided
AP

Might be scum
UN
GIF

Probably scum
KoC
ANG
Qwints
Maran

Scum
Cryo
Messiah

anyone I didn't put in this list I really don't have an opinion on; also; I didn't use hydra names because I mostly went from memory.

also; I expect this to be multiball.

I have noticed in my games that scum tend to either not mention their scum buddies, or mention them in completly irrelevant way. Slaandar has NC (Which I think is Nero Cain) as "I think" Town. However, he does not mention them at all, I don't see why. Also noted is that by this time in the game. KoC and Nero have gone after Majiffy. I assume slaandar felt that he had to defend Majiffy since his buddy was in the wagon.

EBWOP:

UNVOTE:

Evidence points to PC being town despite her flip flopping around on me a bit.

I think good votes are Viomi,

AN

or havingfitz. moreso the first two than fitz.

I can understand fitz and AN to some degree, would like to hear more reasoning (or be directed to it if I missed it) on Viomi outside of the hardcore lurking.

After having not given any attention to AN, he does mention here that AN is a good candidate for a lynch. Granted AN has been lurking on prior days.

I'm waiting on some confirmation from the mod for right now, but I got results on someone other than the person I actually targeted. Presumably it's some redirecting or bus driving, but the names are close enough to give me a little pause.

What the hell. This is Anti-Town. you don't mention that you have night actions.
Is this a new trick to earn town cred??

...you don't want the claimed town watcher to note that he has a night action? Are you even fucking reading the game at this point?

Not a serious attack from KoC.

I noticed a mayor Bus between Slaandar and KoC. More coming from KoC. This is expected since I have seen them both busing before. After KoC successfully buses Slaandar. It makes sense that KoC's buddy be AN since they are in no real threat of getting lynched at any point prior to KoC getting Lynched. Why would KoC bus, yet, even with very little attention thrown to them from other players, AN received two attacks from KoC that lead to nothing.

BTW, I plan to do this type of analysis on everyone here alive. I am assuming that Red had 3 scum partners or more (but doubt the more part) in which case that is my target.

Following post will consider AN's post in relation to all scum.

[guille2015]

You guys are fucking retarded.

vote: Koc

nothing else is happening today, if he flips scum then I'll tell you all why its stupid to lynch me. If he flips town then we should be lynching from Guile, Bcade, Mac, MS.

Tell us why it's stupid to lynch you?

[Messiah]

I'm usually pretty unavailable during weekends, but I know I suck this game. I'll give this game some attention over the weekend.

[Venmar]

Votecount 8.1

[L-3] Guille2015:

[L-3] Messiah:

[L-2]

Angelious Nero:

Mac

[L-3] The Goat:

[L-3] Mac:

Not Voting

• Guille2015, Messiah, Angelious Nero, The Goat

Deadline

• June 4th, 2013

Mod Notes

• I do not believe anybody is V/LA.. I might be wrong however.

[Messiah]

Taking a look at each night's respective deaths:

Mastin/AP N1
Jal N2
PV/Fitz/bork/PC N3
Bacde N4
No-one N5
<presumably 1 scum team left at this point>
DGB N6
Viomi N7

1. A missing kill N2. As far as possible reasons that kills were stopped at this point in the game, we have Mara's 1-shot BP, an Orange RB and an Orange doc/commuter (potentially).
   
   
2. A missing kill N4. We know Rubi didn't protect or commute here, so the 1-shot BP (potentially) and the RB.
   
   
3. Two missing kills N5. The 1-shot BP (again, potentially) and Rubi's commute.

I think The Goat is essentially confirmed at this point. I refuse to believe that I'd still be alive otherwise, and unless you think I'm an unkillable red-mafia watcher then you probably should too.

Guille is obviously an arsonist/bomber/whatever thing, too, given that there's no other explanation for his kills at all and he correctly nailed Rubicon's ability to prevent NKs on himself. I don't know if he's more likely to be town aligned or third party (balance-wise, 'cause I'm terrible at that). If he is a third party then he poses a pretty significant threat at this point; in this scenario he likely wouldn't only be a 3-shot and would have had the last few nights to prime people and he could potentially blow everyone to hell tonight and win, but that might just be paranoia cropping given that the game seems pretty close in hand now *. Very safe to assume he isn't the last red, in any case.

~~

I'm not feeling overtly preferential between Mac and Nero as the red. I guess I'm leaning Nero right now. I know I've been calling for Mac's head pretty loudly for a lot of this game, but it's starting to feel like he's.. I don't know, actually trying to help I guess? I feel like I felt a strong genuineness from him when he was appealing to me the other day, and that has made me question my scum-read ever since too.

* Scum's only choice has been to kill off players other than myself and Goat (he could

potentially

kill Goat tonight going into LyLo if we mislynch today, though he'd be revealing himself to me if he did and lose any chance of turning me against the other party), and try to pull off something where he turns one of the two players in 3-way LyLo with him against the other. Overthinking and choking in LyLo is far from unheard of, but I think we can pull this off pretty easily, assuming I'm right about Goat/Guille and bar the last scum having a powerrole that turns the game on its head somehow (both of which are insignificantly likely as far as I can tell).

Also,

Mac

, can you share some of Nero's red connections you found that made you decide he's the lynch for today?

[Messiah]

Actually yeah, I really think Guille is town from his posts today.

[guille2015]

Venmar

: Can we get some prods out to Nero and whoever else is late.

Nero

: I want you to answer my question above.

Also Nero, If Angel hasn't posted on the hydra, I suggest you remove that hydra from the game, and replace in as Nero Cain.

[Mac]

@messiah; the KoC lynch in particular stands out. his stance refusal to vote KoC and then failure to explain why we shouldn't lynch him the following day was a key point. Not wanting to hammer KoC probably cos he was Godfather... it just makes sense. he keeps focusing on PR's rather than VT's imo.

I'm worried guille is not town either. what is your role name, guille?

[guille2015]

* Scum's only choice has been to kill off players other than myself and Goat (he could potentially kill Goat tonight going into LyLo if we mislynch today, though he'd be revealing himself to me if he did and lose any chance of turning me against the other party), and try to pull off something where he turns one of the two players in 3-way LyLo with him against the other. Overthinking and choking in LyLo is far from unheard of, but I think we can pull this off pretty easily, assuming I'm right about Goat/Guille and bar the last scum having a powerrole that turns the game on its head somehow (both of which are insignificantly likely as far as I can tell).

My thoughts are the same.

I am currently trying to figure out who is more likely to be scum from Mac or AN. Given that I doubt that Goat and Messiah are scum, and I'm town. The game from my perspective is easy. Lynch one of them first then lynch the other in Lylo. However, I rather hit scum today, just in the event that something bad might happened.

[guille2015]

I'm worried guille is not town either. what is your role name, guille?

I'm Baird.

The coolest character in the game, of course.

[Mac]

not as cool as Cole.

but what is the role name specifically.

[guille2015]

Venmar Hasn't sent me Colonel Guile's PMs yet. I don't have the role Name specifically, As in I don't remember the details of the role.

I'll request it again.

[guille2015]

not as cool as Cole.

This is Blasphemous!!!!

[Venmar]

Players Prodded:

• The Goat
  
• Angelious Nero

I can only do so much to ensure activity, I don't enjoy prodding people, so please stay active.

Also, if people could stop randomly deleting their role pm's / forgetting them, that would be great.

[Angelious Nero]

given that there's no other explanation for his kills at all and

he correctly nailed Rubicon's ability to prevent NKs on himself.

its fairly common for scum to have a extra kill or you know, he could just be lying and that it was the scums kill. How is the bolded a towntell?

I don't remember you ever trying to get Mac lynched but I'll read you in ISO.

Nero: I want you to answer my question above.

you know you're supposed to scum and not town, right? Or is it the other way around for you?

Also Nero, If Angel hasn't posted on the hydra, I suggest you remove that hydra from the game, and replace in as Nero Cain.

What's the point in doing this?

his stance refusal to vote KoC

Not wanting to hammer KoC probably cos he was Godfather... it just makes sense.

Except that would be fucking suicide. This is the exact thing that DGB said and its totally untrue.

and then failure to explain why we shouldn't lynch him the following day was a key point.

I don't know why you and Gullie think this is important.

he keeps focusing on PR's rather than VT's imo.

[/quote][/quote]
So all yesterday you were agreeingish with me and now I'm scummy for it? The hell?

[Messiah]

its fairly common for scum to have a extra kill or you know, he could just be lying and that it was the scums kill. How is the bolded a towntell?

So the last red scum could potentially have an ability that killed two people in one night in addition to their factional kill? I don't.. really think so. You might technically be right but you're obviously missing the point if you're just picking on that bolded bit.

I don't remember you ever trying to get Mac lynched but I'll read you in ISO.

http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 1#p4853841
http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 3#p4853843
http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 5#p4854185
http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 9#p4854219
http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 4#p4855174
http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 7#p4866947
http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 0#p4875880

[Messiah]

@messiah; the KoC lynch in particular stands out. his stance refusal to vote KoC and then failure to explain why we shouldn't lynch him the following day was a key point. Not wanting to hammer KoC probably cos he was Godfather... it just makes sense. he keeps focusing on PR's rather than VT's imo.

I'm worried guille is not town either. what is your role name, guille?

These are good points. I really can't get it out of my head that you lurked the thread and avoided commenting on anything during the Slandaar/PC/me thing, though, tbh. That's a pretty damning connection too.

[Mac]

can you explain how this is scummy rather than stupid town play?

at the time of slandaar/pc/you I was at work and viewing from my phone. I may have said this, I don't remember, but I was dumb and didn't know what to do really. other than ask questions.

[Messiah]

Given that we're looking for Slandaar's scum buddy, it's hard not to think you might have known what was going on and didn't want to risk taking his side and it blowing up in your face or risk going against him and ruining his play against PC.

[Mac]

surely i could have just voted pc and acted like I believed slandaar in that case? like alot of people did. it would've been blending in.

Nero also never commented on it either. in fact he voted PC early on and

kept his vote there regardless of your information proving otherwise

. this is another biggy for nero-scum for me.

[Angelious Nero]

Mac, why were you some what buddying me yesterday, I mean I was pushing the whole "last scum is in the prs" and you seemed to be fine with it. But now today I'm scummy for it? Please respond this time.