Mini 1451: A Memory of Light (Game Over)

[Selkies]

@ Selkies - i KNOW that..what i'm saying is look at it from Beli's point of view..not mine...not yours...HIS logic doesn't make sense...
He has shown that he knows the flavor pretty well...He thinks that scum do not get fake claims...so why would scum Fakeclaim a huuuuge main character this early in the game? One that most likely would be in the game? From his point of view it should be a extremely ballsy gamble, yet he doesn't bat an eye...Whether the Mod gives' fakeclaims or not isn't the point here...its WHY Beli thinks it's fake...

Ok.

My familiarity with the flavor begins and ends with wikipedia. I can't really judge the merits of arguments about how central a particular character is.

On other sites where I have played, although the mod may not craft full safe-claim role descriptions for scum, they do often provide some character names and leave it to the scum to work out the details of a claim. Does that sort of partial claim help happen at MS?

[Nero Cain]

If the mod is competent, they'll give safeclaims for a themed game the follows cannon. For a themed game like, CHK or Jason T there's no need.

[Amrun]

Selkies, yes, that happens as well.

[Nero Cain]

So what has Orc been saying in the hydra?

[Selkies]

Orcinus has been windsurfing. We haven't talked since this morning.

All of these claims are confusing as hell to sort out. It seems like there are holes of one sort or another with each MsM's,ThAd's and Beli's.

Of the three, Beli come off the most genuine to me. Don't know how Orcinus feels overall but he doesn't want to lynch MsM today.

Amrun is setting off some alarms for both of us.

Orcinus thinks Icea is really vague, but is undecided if it's scummy-vague.

[ThAdmiral]

@Ms Marangal I am seriously having trouble with your suspicion of Ghostlin yesterday. You said that you thought the dreamwalkers were town. You claim to be one. He breadcrumbed bolded words like dream in a series of posts and you still had him as scum in your reads list.

It's not adding up to me.

- f

This is a good point, however I find it hard to see marangal as scum since she defended me so much yesterday. Don't really see the scum motivation for that.

The foxhead medallion passively renders the user immune to direct effects of the One Power in flavor

key words there being "passive" and "the One Power"; Commuters decide which nights to commute on, so it's not passive, and can be protected from the NK, and it's a real stretch to imagine the Power being the only way to kill in this game unless

everybody

can channel. Even if you don't believe

any

claims, MattP flipped Birgitte, who could not channel, so it is known that there are non-channellers in the game

So are you saying there are night actions that aren't "one power" night actions? If so, maybe I'm not as indestructible as I thought.

Horseshit. Horseshit, horseshit, horseshit! And for those of you who still don't know what I mean, it's the shit that comes from a horse.

There is no way I'll believe that. No way.

Mods do give scum full fake claims, if that's what you don't believe.

But the biggest issue I have is this. In 866 you say "there's more to the role as well" but then in 906 you say you planned on claiming first thing today. So which is it?

I never said I planned on full-claiming.
I'm not going to respond to the rest of your post btw - most if it was just "you're scum" "no I'm not" stuff anyway, so what's the point of keeping that going.

But you're freaking town as town town town for not knowing it. SOOOOO town.

So, dead tonight. I'm fine with that as long as my flip makes you lynch ThAd's lying ass

Question: why do you believe mara, but not me?

edit: basically what swords said.

I doubt ThAd's claim because commuter doesn't fit the setup, and I don't accept the stipulation that Mat would "definitely be in this game;" There are a lot of characters in WoT, and I drew a pretty minor character. There are enough major characters in the series for every player in the game to roll one if that's how the flavour was being done.

Yes, but Matrim is a very major player in the books...you think scum would chance that he's not in the game this early? Really?
Considering you don't think scum are given fake-claims, i don't see how you would think this...

Yep, loving swords right now, and looking forward to seeing beli's response.

[ThAdmiral]

ok I'm going to do a bit of wagon analysis. Feel free to draw your own conclusions from this. It will also be something to revisit as more people flip in the future.

Based off the mods posts here are any wagons that got up to at least 4 people:

milkshake

5 (

MattP

, Nero Cain,

Ghostlin

, Demon, Selkies)

milkshake

6 (

MattP

,

Ghostlin

, Demon, Selkies, sword_of_omens,

ThAdmiral

)

Belisarius 4 (Demon, Selkies,

milkshake

,

Ghostlin

)

sword_of_omens 4 (GoodCop_BadCop, Iecerint,

MattP

, Nero Cain)

ThAdmiral

5 (Belisarius, Amrun,

milkshake

, Selkies, Demon)

sword_of_omens 4 (Iecerint, Nero Cain,

Ghostlin

, GoodCop_BadCop)

Ms Marangal 4 (sword_of_omens, Demon,

milkshake

, Selkies)

milkshake

7 [Lynched!] (

ThAdmiral

,

MattP

, Ms Marangal,

Ghostlin

, Nero Cain, GoodCop_BadCop, Iecerint)

So just going off sheer numbers and probability (aka "the adel method") it is unlikely that any wagon that gets to 4 had no scum influence, and that goes doubly for any wagon that got to 5.
People who's names show up multiple times include:
nero - on the first milkshake wagon, also on the soo wagon and the final milkshake wagon.
Demon - on the early milkshake wagon, also on myself, belisarius and marangal.
Selkies - similarly to demon was on the early milkshake wagon, as well as myself, belisarius and marangal.

Looking closer at the wagons that have already had a few people's alignments revealed we have:
nero, demon, selkies - on first milkshake wagon
demon, selkies, soo - on continuation of first milkshake wagon
demon, selkies - on belisarius wagon
gc_bc, icerint, nero - on soo wagon and continuation of soo wagon
soo, demon, selkies - on marangal wagon

As you can see demon and selkies basically pop up on each wagon, and in particular those wagons which there are only a few unknowns on due to flips (and from my perspective, my own alignment). Note that they weren't on the milkshake lynch wagon. I'm not sure how to take this, as they both voted him earlier in the game.

Now that is simply looking at it based on numbers and probability.
Of demon and selkies I think selkies is town. I lean null on demon, or I should say I did before this analysis. I now think he is a very good lynch option.

vote: demon

[Belisarius]

HIS logic doesn't make sense...
He has shown that he knows the flavor pretty well...He thinks that scum do not get fake claims...so why would scum Fakeclaim a huuuuge main character this early in the game? One that most likely would be in the game?

My logic doesn't make sense

if

one accepts your stipulation that Mat (and by extension, the other 2 main ta'veren) are

definitely

in this game, which as I have stated, I do not. Not everyone has to be a major character, and not all major characters have to be represented. I rolled what amounts to Perrin's sidekick, so I'd expect to see more bit parts and other factions such as Whitecloaks and Seanchan. You could fill 8 of the 13 slots in this game just with major characters from the Two Rivers who showed up in tEotW and were still alive in AMoL.

So are you saying there are night actions that aren't "one power" night actions? If so, maybe I'm not as indestructible as I thought.

It's almost guaranteed. There is lots of killing done in the series that doesn't use the Power. I could easily see the PRs in this game using the One Power quite a lot, but the factional kill is almost certain to be vanilla.

Question: why do you believe mara, but not me?

I've already answered that -- it doesn't make sense to have both Commuters and Dreamwalkers in this game. My one-shot ability is described in my role PM as a way to evade the night kill. That's what a commuter does. If I'd got MattP's role PM I'd probably be voting Mara right now.

[sword_of_omens]

My logic doesn't make sense if one accepts your stipulation that Mat (and by extension, the other 2 main ta'veren) are definitely in this game, which as I have stated, I do not.

Nope, i didn't say they definitely had to be in the set up.. you would figure that odds are high that at least 1 or 2 of them would be..why would scum (on Day2) be ballsy enough to claim one of the 3 Main characters of the story? You don't think that they'd be worried about a cc at all? (Again this is going off your belief that no fake-claims are given)

[sword_of_omens]

No, I get it now.

You're right, sword. Beli's logic doesn't add up.

so why aren't you voting with me?

[Amrun]

Beli... So you're saying you're a commuter. And you still think an unlimited doc is in the game? Reals?

P-edit: I don't agree that poor logic = scum.

[Nero Cain]

He claimed 1 shot.

[Belisarius]

And you still think an unlimited doc is in the game? Reals?

It's plausible, since the dream isn't safe the way a traditional commuter would be.

More plausible than both Dreamwalkers and traditional commuters in the same game, at any rate.

I'm done addressing the "Scum wouldn't be brave enough to claim Mat" stipulation as it is essentially a game of "is not/is too" and is in no way conducive to catching scum.

[Demon]

How..have I not been replaced..been having way too much fun over summer lol.

[Demon]

Sorry Thad, I read up until 'wagon analysis' and just stopped. It's bullshit and the whole "1 scum between selkies and demon" conclusion you've managed to arrived to is srsly nothing more than sputtering drivel. 1) you are very very bad/paranoid town (hey why not both). or 2) you're scum and you want to look town by starting some revolutionary wagon on obvtown.

still reading up.

[Demon]

THREE scum.. and our votes are split on them.. wtf? All on Beli/Marangal plz, I' ll vote after i read.

[ThAdmiral]

Sorry Thad, I read up until 'wagon analysis' and just stopped. It's bullshit and the whole "1 scum between selkies and demon" conclusion you've managed to arrived to is srsly nothing more than sputtering drivel. 1) you are very very bad/paranoid town (hey why not both). or 2) you're scum and you want to look town by starting some revolutionary wagon on obvtown.

still reading up.

[Demon]

Actually Im pretty sure Thad shouldn't be today's lynch.

I might buy Amrun-SK(?).

Vote: Ms Mrangal

[Demon]

And their mutual townreading each other is probably not scum-scum.. so if MM flip smafia then Beli is town, I guess.

[Iecerint]

OK, reading

[Iecerint]

OK, so the rest of D1 was pretty familiar to me, and I didn't notice much that stood out to me except that Nero Cain linked milkscum -> GCBCscum in the early 20s on grounds that didn't make much sense to me somewhere in the early 20s.

Flavor brainstorm: Is there someone in the flavor who can force people to enter the dreamworld in the flesh? I think this is the only way the body would disappear ala the D2 opening flavor, but I don't remember people being pulled into the dreamworld in the flesh as a "thing." Perrin, Luc, and Gaul do it voluntarily, but that's it.

The Nero Cain-Amrun interaction totally totally throws my Nero read on its head, specifically in Amrun's 884 BUT this is messed up by Nero's response in 886, which means the dynamic was different from what I thought it was. 884/886 obviate my Amrun concerns related to this interaction.

Mara looks town to me from the circumstances of her claim today. Mara, does your PM make explicit reference to the "dangers" of the dreamworld ala Beli's claim?

SoO makes good points on Beli re: doubting fakeclaims and simultaneously doubting a Mat claim (963), especially since Beli seems to know the flavor pretty well. Beli's vig crumb claim on Demon also looks solid.

Waiting for Mara's answer before continuing....

[Amrun]

What is your read on me, Iece?

Also, it's clear by now that the reasons that I thought Nero thought what he thought are not the actual reasons... Which still leaves me confused. I meant to ask this before: Nero, do you have meta of SK hunting early game as town? As scum?

[GoodCop_BadCop]

I never said I planned on full-claiming.
I'm not going to respond to the rest of your post btw - most if it was just "you're scum" "no I'm not" stuff anyway, so what's the point of keeping that going.

Deflecting scum confirmed. I specifically asked Thad to quote which posts of ghostlin's made him obvtown, and his response is "what's the point of it" essentially? He's caught scum and flailing around.

~BC

[Amrun]

Eh.

I'm probably willing to lynch ThAd today. Sometimes I think he's town and then sometimes I"m like "wut"

I'd MUCH prefer to lynch Marangal, and I only really want to lynch ThAd upon the agreement that if he flips town, we immediately string up Marangal.

[Nero Cain]

Nero, do you have meta of SK hunting early game as town? As scum?

no and no.

Did you fakecrumb as mafia? They do do that ya know?