Newbie 1382 (Game Over)

[Kattaze]

From how I perceived it, Kattaze was a good candidate for a Night Kill, and I'd assume that the Mafia aimed him during the night, and the doctor protected him. Otherwise it's too coincidental for the doctor to just happen to random protect the right target.
Since I have barely any scum reads, I'll contribute what I can : I don't think Kattaze is scum (I know at this point it really feels like the two of us are scumbuddies, and if one of us flips scum that would really suck [particularly because I'm very scummy to you guys]).
In #323, Kattaze said that he was expecting to be NK'd, and I'm sure some doctor would try to protect him. The other possibility is that he is scum and purposely did that with a no NK, but that's really unlikely, as it doesn't confirm him as town, and wastes a night for Mafia.

We don't know if there's a doctor right now, there's only a 1/3 chance that there is with how this game is set up. Otherwise, this seems kind of WIFOM'y.

Actually, there's a 50-50 chance that there's a doc. The only thing that could have prevented scum lynching were the power roles in setup A (jailkeeper and 1-shot bulletproof) and setup C (doc). There's nothing in setup B which could stop their NK so it must be A or C. Unless you think they might have chosen not to NK which I doubt but then again I'm not that familiar with site meta so maybe it's more common than I think.

Mr. Flay

, do you know whether scum often choose no NK?

I'd like to hear from the other players about what they think of rmp/my interaction on this page.

You've convinced me that rmpeacoc isn't as townie as I had previously been thinking. Probably still leaning null-town at this stage though, but that's mainly because of how convinced I am of my current scumreads right now.

[pitoli]

I'd like to hear from the other players about what they think of rmp/my interaction on this page.

I'm more inclined to take your side. Peacock didn't mention Lor as scum until less than six days left, and then put him at L-1 (after saying "fine." in 266, making him the fifth person total to vote him after you, me {which I unvoted}, Xiao, and NQT.)

I'm really less interested in whose side you'd take and more interested in whether you think it could be a Town/Scum interaction (or if it's Town/Town).

[pitoli]

Actually, there's a 50-50 chance that there's a doc. The only thing that could have prevented scum lynching were the power roles in setup A (jailkeeper and 1-shot bulletproof) and setup C (doc). There's nothing in setup B which could stop their NK so it must be A or C. Unless you think they might have chosen not to NK which I doubt but then again I'm not that familiar with site meta so maybe it's more common than I think.

Mr. Flay

, do you know whether scum often choose no NK?

There are 6 possible setups, not 3, right?

[Mr. Flay]

I need a minute to catch up, but I don't for a MINUTE believe this was a nokill event. Look at the grid:

This game is using the standard Newbie Game setup, Matrix6. One row or one column will be randomly chosen from the table below and the remaining six roles will be filled in by Mafia Goons and Vanilla Townies as appropriate to create a total of 2 Mafia-aligned players and 7 Town-aligned players.

	A	B	C
1	Town Jailkeeper	Vanilla Townie	Mafia Goon
2	Mafia Roleblocker	Town Cop	Town Doctor
3	Town 1-Shot Bulletproof	Mafia Goon	Town Tracker

Now, I know this is a new setup and all, but you all can see that 5/6 setups can have a blocked kill; only Column B lacks such a mechanism (JK blocks kills on their target, for those who don't know). I don't know why lortaku is playing the Doctor card, unless he's the Mafia Roleblocker and

knows

we're in that setup. I don't like Kattaze's assumption that B is impossible, because we COULD have had some really bizarre scum decision to NK, but for now I have to go with Occam's Razor and assume one of the other five setups is in play.

And yes, I was on my phone Saturday and assumed the fourth vote was the hammer vote. By the time I got home it was after 4... Bad IC, no biscuit.

Now I need to go reread. But I agree with those who want a short Day,

unless

someone has valuable role information (a Doc claim would give us a confirmed innocent, a JK would narrow the pool to two). If not, NO CLAIMING! I need to think about whether hypoclaim would be a good idea, but I feel like it would just give scum information and not town.

[Kattaze]

Sorry, I read the setup incorrectly. You're right, there's 6 setups, not 3, and 5 of 6 could have resulted in no NK. Also, what is a hypoclaim?

[Mr. Flay]

Oh wow, that's not on the wiki. Sorry.

Hypothetical Claim. "If I were a (usually Cop), I would have investigated Soandso N1". Usually everyone in the game does it sequentially. Then if anyone dies and flips (Cop), you know who all their results were. It's a really blatant form of breadcrumbing, and only really benefits Town in some specific Open setups. Otherwise scum very easily figures out who is what based on their own secret actions.

[Mr. Flay]

I don't know why lortaku is playing the Doctor card, unless he's the Mafia Roleblocker and knows we're in that setup.

Sorry for the triplepost here, but I just realized that the other possibility (besides lortaku's partner being the RB, of course) is that he's trying to narrow down whether he's facing TWO ways to block a kill (Column A) or just one that can be easily dealt with (Row 2). More active scum points for lortaku, on top of yesterday's lurkfest. Also

if one of us flips scum

is the WEIRDEST way to say that I've ever seen. Why not "if rmpeacoc flips scum"?? ReVOTE: lortaku though I do think we need a week or so of discussion in light of N1.

Right now I like pitoli and nqt more as Town than on D1, for their reactions to what happened. rmpeacoc is flipping practically ALL of my scumtell triggers with today's posts, but I'll have to break that down later. Suffice to say the further revisionism, especially the backtracking on lortaku, is not the least of it.

[Mr. Flay]

Sorry, was thinking ahead to my next paragraph. That should say

Why not "if

Kattaze

flips scum"??

[rmpeacoc]

sigh. alright well here's me praying lortaku is scum so that you can all see where I was coming from.

Flay, I like the idea of a hypo claim, personally, but my worry is what if someone already breadcrumbed? I don't have experience as scum in this setting but couldn't the scum just look back and narrow down who is a pr based on that?

[Zaicon]

Vote Count 2.1

lortaku (2)

: rmpeacoc, Mr. Flay

Kattaze (1)

: notquitethere

rmpeacoc (1)

: pitoli

jon_h61 (1)

: Kattaze

No Vote (4)

: JerryArr, jon_h61, lortaku, Xiao Long

With 9 alive, it takes 5 to lynch!

Deadline is Tuesday, June 25 at 4:00 PM CDT, which is in (expired on 2013-06-25 16:00:00).

[Kattaze]

Oh wow, that's not on the wiki. Sorry.

Hypothetical Claim. "If I were a (usually Cop), I would have investigated Soandso N1". Usually everyone in the game does it sequentially. Then if anyone dies and flips (Cop), you know who all their results were. It's a really blatant form of breadcrumbing, and only really benefits Town in some specific Open setups. Otherwise scum very easily figures out who is what based on their own secret actions.

Hmm interesting. I don't know if I like the idea that much though because it seems the people who go later in the sequence have an advantage (especially if they're scum) to either sheep other people's reasoning or see flaws in people's choice and change their own choice. It's the type of thing that would work well in RL mafia where everyone had to write it down first then reveal.

Also, what's with this inconsistency?

But I agree with those who want a short Day

,

unless

someone has valuable role information (a Doc claim would give us a confirmed innocent, a JK would narrow the pool to two). If not, NO CLAIMING! I need to think about whether hypoclaim would be a good idea, but I feel like it would just give scum information and not town.

And then:

Also

if one of us flips scum

is the WEIRDEST way to say that I've ever seen. Why not "if rmpeacoc flips scum"?? ReVOTE: lortaku

though I do think we need a week or so of discussion in light of N1.

Do you want a short day or not? Looks like you changed your mind in the space of 20 minutes.

[rmpeacoc]

if one of us flips scum

Why not "if rmpeacoc flips scum"??

Just wanted to point out he wasn't talking about me. he was talking about Kattaze.

[Mr. Flay]

No inconsistency. I mean "shorter than running the deadline out like D1". I think some of you took me too literally when I said most games run close to deadline... they don't HAVE to if we're ready to decide.

[pitoli]

Hmm interesting. I don't know if I like the idea that much though because it seems the people who go later in the sequence have an advantage (especially if they're scum) to either sheep other people's reasoning or see flaws in people's choice and change their own choice. It's the type of thing that would work well in RL mafia where everyone had to write it down first then reveal.

With these kinds of things I think people usually try to make a list of scummiest --> towniest and then popcorn their way through it. Of course, finding the common ground to create such a list is difficult and time-consuming.

Right now I like pitoli and nqt more as Town than on D1, for their reactions to what happened.

So you liked NQT's vote on Kattaze?

[Mr. Flay]

Flay, I like the idea of a hypo claim, personally, but my worry is what if someone already breadcrumbed? I don't have experience as scum in this setting but couldn't the scum just look back and narrow down who is a pr based on that?

No no no, I'm not in favor of a hypo claim after

coffee

thinking about it for five seconds. It will just hand a TON of data to the scum and let them cherrypick the PRs. You should have realized the same thing, frankly.

Right now I like pitoli and nqt more as Town than on D1, for their reactions to what happened.

So you liked NQT's vote on Kattaze?

Not the vote per se, but the rest of 356 seemed to be coming from a very Town mindset in reaction to two non-deaths.

Up next: rmpeacoc's posts from today.

[rmpeacoc]

Flay, I like the idea of a hypo claim, personally, but my worry is what if someone already breadcrumbed? I don't have experience as scum in this setting but couldn't the scum just look back and narrow down who is a pr based on that?

No no no, I'm not in favor of a hypo claim after

coffee

thinking about it for five seconds. It will just hand a TON of data to the scum and let them cherrypick the PRs. You should have realized the same thing, frankly.

Did you read what you posted? I had my own concerns... I wasn't saying 'lets hypo'

[Mr. Flay]

Actually I lied.

Spoiler: First of all, here's who posted in the last eight hours of D1:

• nqt at T-7:50, switching us from a lortaku-Jerry tie to a Jerry-Jon tie. He says he'll vote "Jerry or whomever" at deadline.
  
• Kattaze at T-7:22, saying he won't be awake again until after the deadline. He *is* voting for one of the vote-leaders, though, so later complaints ring a little hollow here.
  
• Flay at T-7:21 and again at T-7:17. I thought I'd be home before deadline.
  
• Kattaze at T-7:08 answering a last-minute question from Flay (thanks by the way).
  
• jon at T-7:06, asking the group to lynch someone, even him.
  
• jon again/next at T-4:54, saying he won't be back in time to vote more.
  
• Xiao at T-3:44, saying he ISO Jon and Jerry to figure out who to lynch now that the lortaku wagon is crumbling.
  
• notquitethere at T-3:24, showing he's paying attention to the thread and saying he'll revote lortaku at the deadline if necessary.
  
• Jerry at T-1:47, declaring the Jonwagon dead for D1 and switching us back to a Jerry-lortaku tie. He even implies he'd be willing to vote himself to ensure a lynch.
  
• nqt at T-1:43 switches from Jon back to lortaku. For some reason though he says "a mislynch would be toxic". WTF??
  
• pitoli derps at T-1:13 and assumes lortaku has been lynched, asking him for a roleflip and final reads. If she's scum faking it, I'm impressed.
  
• Flay phonederps at T-1:10, making the same mistake as pitoli and calling for no reads except from the dead man. No Townie Brownies for me here, but also no reason not to hammer lortaku for real if I was scum.
  
• Jerry realizes the error at T-56min, but he's already voting lortaku.
  
• Xiao posts in frustration at T-41min, but he's also already voting lortaku. Technically he could have switched to Jerry for an equal L-1, but Jerry was the last person to post and Xiao didn't know if he'd keep that self-hammer threat.
  
• Jerry at 2 minutes to deadline.

That's it. pitoli or Flay could have realized the error, but weren't around. lortaku probably wasn't going to hammer himself. Jon and Kattaze were absent. Nobody made any huge scumslips in this chain of events; notquitethere's initial vote switch is the weirdest thing to come out of it, but he switched back hours before deadline. pitoli makes no excuses for the miscount once D2 starts; rmp on the other hand jumps right in with the blame game, despite the fact that she was just as absent as Jon (and her vote just as 'useless', or not; see above). Xiao posts about like I expect, impatient and bloodthirsty. No tells there either way.

But, back on rmpeacoc:

I've been on the lortaku wagon all along.

Gunning for towncred if we lynch lortakuscum? I think yes, but it requires a lortakuscum flip first, so minor tell here.

I mentioned you as a third scummy player. I never said I wanted you lynched. Read more closely.

More fine-grained semantics from a player who just doesn't post very carefully (or at least tries to take things back when they are interpreted in the 'wrong' way). If you think someone is scummy but you don't want them lynched, what the hell is so scummy about them?? Why DON'T you want them lynched if they are scummy?

I've been on the lortaku wagon all along.

More bullshit. You were the 4th vote on Lortaku (L-1) when we were getting close to deadline.

Read back darling. I never said I started the wagon, but was scumreading him all along. Sorry, my 'vote' hasn't been on the wagon, but my READS have.

Why are you lying, Rm?

For most of Day 1 you didn't refer to Lortaku at all besides indicating he was a newbie and likely needed a lot of help with figuring out how to play.

The first time you mention anything about him being scummy is #245, a mere page before you voted him.

Now I'm wondering why you were telling me and Jerry not to pressure Lortaku for lurking, even telling me off for wishing that Lortaku would replace out. If you really were scumreading Lortaku all along, you wouldn't have cared about the votes on him. And you definitely wouldn't have minded about a replacement - which would have probably enabled you to get a better read on your supposed

"top scumread"

. Lortaku's active lurking would have earned a lot more suspicion from Town-Rmpeacoc, not this "let's help the newbie out" crap which I feel is a much softer position and more likely to come from scum.

I'm just going to quote this post in its entirety, because it saves me a lot of typing.

@pitoli - Before that point was bullshit with Xiao. I didn't call anyone OTHER THAN Xiao scum before I vote Lortaku. I also wasn't around all that much and when I was I was being insulted and attacked.

Let me translate:
"You weren't around pitoli, but neither was I, and when I was I was being Attacked for my Emotions so I will Appeal to your Emotions here because Xiao was mean to me. Once I stopped being so distracted by my Emotions I totally stopped defending lortaku and voted for him when a lynch looked likely."

sigh. alright well here's me praying lortaku is scum so that you can all see where I was coming from.

Further possible distancing going on here. I really like the idea of a lortaku flip today, because a great deal of my rmp 'case' depends on lortaku being scum, and lortaku's rolefishing today has done NOTHING to make me want to change my vote.

Tags fixed. ~Zaicon

[JerryArr]

I'd like to hear from the other players about what they think of rmp/my interaction on this page.

I'm more inclined to take your side. Peacock didn't mention Lor as scum until less than six days left, and then put him at L-1 (after saying "fine." in 266, making him the fifth person total to vote him after you, me {which I unvoted}, Xiao, and NQT.)

I'm really less interested in whose side you'd take and more interested in whether you think it could be a Town/Scum interaction (or if it's Town/Town).

Right now, I'd say town/town, but it's a very real possibility that rmp is scum... so many posts people find contradictory.

As for Flay's reference to a short 7 day long day, I don't think that's much of a contradiction. We just had a 14 day long day, and I expect today and beyond would last at least a few days, but compared to 14, I'd think 7 would be pretty short. (Although,

Flay

, how long do days usually last after day 1?)

[Kattaze]

sigh. alright well here's me praying lortaku is scum so that you can all see where I was coming from.

Further possible distancing going on here.

I really like the idea of a lortaku flip today, because a great deal of my rmp 'case' depends on lortaku being scum,

and lortaku's rolefishing today has done NOTHING to make me want to change my vote.

Why not just flip rmp today, and settle your case against her straight away?

Kinda playing the devil's advocate here because at this stage I don't think she's scum so I won't be voting her. (probably have her at about 3rd or 4th most likely)

[Mr. Flay]

Why not just flip rmp today, and settle your case against her straight away?

Because lortaku is scummy by himself, but rmpeacoc is only really SUPERscummy in partnership.

[Mr. Flay]

(Although, Flay, how long do days usually last after day 1?)

Varies wildly. Depends on power roles, participation, D1 flip, etc.

[Kattaze]

(Although, Flay, how long do days usually last after day 1?)

Varies wildly. Depends on power roles, participation, D1 flip, etc.

I wouldn't really say that it's "after D1" right now. It's more like an extension of D1 where we have narrowed down the setup possibilities slightly. That said, I suppose a no-lynch is somewhat telling, because it is in scum's interest to no-lynch on D1. Normally that would mean they could come out on D2 and have one less towny to worry about (because of NK). We just got lucky here with no NK.

Also in a no-lynch D1 situation scum would avoid nasty questions that would emerge if they played a part in getting a towny lynched.

[rmpeacoc]

That's an interesting bus, then... but okay.

I half just want to lynch him now so that I can hear Flay's reasoning for why I must be scum if Lortaku is?

[notquitethere]

Kattaze

I can totally empathise with not being awake at the deadline-- that's often he case for me too. Question, is this the behavior of scum under fire:

Wow I've never been in a no lynch before. I'd seriously urge that we lynch someone, even me. Come on folks, let's get it together and lynch someone. IF you lynch me, seriously consider Kattaze tomorrow, I know they'll hem and haw, but don't let them get away clean. I think they're trying to line up enough mis-lynches to win.

I'll take one for the team if it keeps us from no lynching.

?

(Will address others and any outstanding questions in a few hours time)

[jon_h61]

Kattaze

I can totally empathise with not being awake at the deadline-- that's often he case for me too. Question, is this the behavior of scum under fire:

Wow I've never been in a no lynch before. I'd seriously urge that we lynch someone, even me. Come on folks, let's get it together and lynch someone. IF you lynch me, seriously consider Kattaze tomorrow, I know they'll hem and haw, but don't let them get away clean. I think they're trying to line up enough mis-lynches to win.

I'll take one for the team if it keeps us from no lynching.

?

(Will address others and any outstanding questions in a few hours time)

I notice you aren't scared to use your vote. Are you satisfied with Kattaze's answer? If so, why aren't you voting me, since you're implying I'm scum? I seriously suggest that if you're Town you vote who you think is scummiest. That way it's harder for scum to say you're setting up lynches, distancing, and all those other things scum like to try to accuse Town of.

I still have suspicions of Kattaze, but I hope he's just misguided Town. Jerry is mostly a relational tell.
ATM I think Peacoc's acting really squirrelly.
This is mostly a gut vote
VOTE: rmpeacoc, but will try to expand on it later.

My laptop is still dead, and will probably stay that way for awhile.
We're going camping and fishing this weekend for Deb's B-day.

@MOD I'll be V/LA from Friday afternoon til Sunday some time, probably late