Mini 1451: A Memory of Light (Game Over)

[GoodCop_BadCop]

BC what are your current thoughts about Iece?

- f

I can start pulling more detailed meta on IECE; but for now, it appears to me that he’s struggling to keep up and his absence during the bulk of day one has left him at an impasse. It does concern me he took this long to vote, but from my skim of his past games that seems to be a fairly common thing for him regardless of alignment. He's picking up steam now, and I'd like to observe a while longer. The other head is a bit more suspicious than I am of him currently.

Regarding Amrun and Nero, gonna sort out this mess. Can anyone point out Nero’s “crumbs” for me, because I don’t really see them?

Thad is still scum though. Nero/Thad might be a thing and I’ll go back and compare some ISOs.

P-edit: Amrun, the second kill smells more like a SK IMO. The unique way of killing feels wrong for another scum group. But I might be buying too much into the flavor.

~BC

[Amrun]

That's what I thought about the flavor, too, GCBC. But I don't understand the source material so I don't know what makes more sense from that perspective.

I was a lot more suspicious of Iece until he came at me like this. I was actually planning on voting him after the thad/marangal thing was sorted out. But now ... not so much. Of all the people for scum Iece to take a stance on, I'm probably one of the more risky ones to make an enemy of (for him personally, not because I'm laik so awesomez).

[Iecerint]

Above I'm lumping SK into different-scum.

My guess from flavor would be Forsaken/Dark One are one scum team, and Mordeth/Padan Fain/Ordeith/Shaisam/whatevernamehewantstouse as a 3rd party.

Pedit: Just read Nero's D2 posts.

[Amrun]

Yeah, but there's no point of investiscum if it's not two scum teams.

[Iecerint]

Regarding the Ghostlin kill flavor, I think the body totally disappearing like that AND Tel'aran'rhiod being implicated implies that someone was killed by being forced to enter the dreamworld in the flesh involuntarily. This would mean that instead of just dreaming in the dreamworld, you physically enter the dreamworld with your body.

But I can't really think of any people who do this in the flavor. The only people who enter the dreamworld in the flesh in the flavor at all are Perrin, Gaul, and Luc/Isam/Slayer/whichevername, and they all do it voluntarily, and the only scumrole in that set is Slayer (non-channeller allied with the Shadow who serves as Perrin's personal antagonist), and I don't think Slayer has the ability to force others to enter the dream in the flesh.

[Iecerint]

Yeah, but there's no point of investiscum if it's not two scum teams.

Well, presuming Nerotracker, scum can use it to either find the SK or to find PRs/get nightgame info.

[Iecerint]

Which stands to reason...

Mara, did either of the other players in the QT indicate that they had entered the dreamworld unexpectedly?

[Amrun]

Yeah, but there's no point of investiscum if it's not two scum teams.

Well, presuming Nerotracker, scum can use it to either find the SK or to find PRs/get nightgame info.

He's not a tracker, though. He definitely didn't track me to Matt. Alluding to it just confused him.

[Iecerint]

I'd assumed he had just demured.

[Nero Cain]

What the fuck is this shit about me crumbing. Not an investigation role.

[Selkies]

BC what are your current thoughts about Iece?

- f

I can start pulling more detailed meta on IECE; but for now, it appears to me that he’s struggling to keep up and his absence during the bulk of day one has left him at an impasse. It does concern me he took this long to vote, but from my skim of his past games that seems to be a fairly common thing for him regardless of alignment. He's picking up steam now, and I'd like to observe a while longer. The other head is a bit more suspicious than I am of him currently.

Regarding Amrun and Nero, gonna sort out this mess. Can anyone point out Nero’s “crumbs” for me, because I don’t really see them?

Thad is still scum though. Nero/Thad might be a thing and I’ll go back and compare some ISOs.

P-edit: Amrun, the second kill smells more like a SK IMO. The unique way of killing feels wrong for another scum group. But I might be buying too much into the flavor.

~BC

Does it concern you that orcinus and I are taking even longer to vote?

[GoodCop_BadCop]

BC what are your current thoughts about Iece?

- f

I can start pulling more detailed meta on IECE; but for now, it appears to me that he’s struggling to keep up and his absence during the bulk of day one has left him at an impasse. It does concern me he took this long to vote, but from my skim of his past games that seems to be a fairly common thing for him regardless of alignment. He's picking up steam now, and I'd like to observe a while longer. The other head is a bit more suspicious than I am of him currently.

Regarding Amrun and Nero, gonna sort out this mess. Can anyone point out Nero’s “crumbs” for me, because I don’t really see them?

Thad is still scum though. Nero/Thad might be a thing and I’ll go back and compare some ISOs.

P-edit: Amrun, the second kill smells more like a SK IMO. The unique way of killing feels wrong for another scum group. But I might be buying too much into the flavor.

~BC

Does it concern you that orcinus and I are taking even longer to vote?

No. Should it? You’ve stated a few times that you’re waiting on Orci to get back before voting. Iece had no such reasons as far as I can tell.

Thoughts on the current amrun/nero situation?

~BC

[Iecerint]

What the fuck is this shit about me crumbing. Not an investigation role.

You went after Amrun hard at the start of D2 despite taking a very different approach D1. You implied that you thought that she was the SK per se in multiple posts.

[Cephrir]

Vote Count 2.6

ThAdmiral 2

(GoodCop_BadCop, Belisarius)

Ms Marangal 2

(Amrun, Demon)

Demon 2

(ThAdmiral, Ms Marangal)

Amrun 2

(Nero Cain, Iecerint)

Belisarius 1

(sword_of_omens)

Not Voting 1

(Selkies)

With 10 alive, it takes 6 to lynch.

Deadline for Day 2 is June 20th at 11:59 PM US Eastern. This is in (expired on 2013-06-20 23:59:59).

[Selkies]

All the claims and all the moving parts to the claims are making me crazy. Could be that the stuff that has bugged us about Amrun since about the start of day has to do with her thinking she'd been tracked.

Amrun are you also a channeler or dreamwalker? I think you said you are not a dreamwalker.

- f

[Amrun]

I don't channel, or dreamwalk, or anything like that at all. At least, my role pm doesn't mention it so if it were to happen I"m assuming it would be happening due to someone else's action(s).

[GoodCop_BadCop]

Why in the world do we have four equal competing wagons? This does not make any sense to me. There is a large amount of indecision and split views that it is making it difficult for me to see trends in voting pattern with regard to who is pushing and who is countering a push.

Before post #1018,

ThAd

and

Mara

were the lead wagons. Iecerint added Amrun to the list with his vote, and Mara added Demon to the list with her vote.

If scum is trying to avoid pushing a mis-lynch at this stage of the game in order to not stick out (assuming at least one of ThAd or Mara is town), Iecerint fits into that category nicely with his vote to add the Amrun wagon to the table. Also contrary to my other head, I DO find Selkes indecision with scum-reads quite scummy who could also be doing the same thing of trying to lay low. While we are on the topic of Iecerint and my other head and voting hesitation, a quick meta-hunt of Iecerint shows me that his hesitance to vote is his scum-game while he is much less so as town-Iecerint.

Recent-Town Game: DarkSouls Mafia
Recent-Scum Game: Gaymafia II

We (the heads) can't come to an agreement on Iecerint.

I currently believe Mara's claim, but fail to understand one thing...

Mara, would a town commuter, dreamwalkers, and a doctor all exist in our mini-game setup and still be balanced?

Selkes, you should lay down your vote so I can get a better read on you.

SOO, if you can't get any steam for a Beli lynch, who is your other scum-read?

Iecerint, you claim that Amrun's comment of "I think I know why he thinks this" factors into your scum-read/vote on him. Why didn't that comment (which comes before your #900 in which you state your top three suspects (Myself, Thad, and Nero)) factor into your scum-read-list at that time, but does now?

~GC

[Iecerint]

My 900 is just my reread from the first half of the game. 995 is where I finish the rest of it.

But initially in 995 I did kind of write off the Amrun stuff when Nero didn't push when she crumbed "knowing" why he thought she was scum. At the time, I thought Nero not responding meant I had made things up in my head about the whole thing. IIRC Amrun also says something about "have you been reading carefully" in that post, implying that whatever she was thinking of wasn't night-game-related. But then I reconsidered when I came back to think about it and decided that that level of salience from Amrun was kind of weird, and then I decided that it was a scummy kind of weird.

[Nero Cain]

His reasoning is pretty loopy, to me, and the fact that he now seems to be backtracking and including mafia is a possibility confuses me more

You said something which sounded suspicious to me, if you and Iece and whomever think its derpy to give my opinion then so be it. We also had two kills last night. The simplest answer says its a second kill from a second killing role like a SK or vig. I don't know how common a SK is is in mini's though.

Also the other WOT game had a sk and I think that was mini.

I seriously doubt we have multiscum in such a small game. I don't know the flavor... does that make sense? Are there two enemy groups?

How close are you paying attention here? There's been a bunch of talk about flavor.

Does it concern you that orcinus and I are taking even longer to vote?

For the record, I am concerned that you've been less aggressive then normal and Orc is lurking/ignoring this game.

Could be that the stuff that has bugged us about Amrun since about the start of day has to do with her thinking she'd been tracked.

Why would town be worried that they got tracked?

[Selkies]

Why would town be worried that they got tracked?

Why would scum trot out a fake claim with so little vote pressure?

[Selkies]

orcinus and I have had a chance to talk in more depth about the game, so I'm ready to move out of data acquisition mode.

But, first I'll talk about the data.

We have a bunch of role claims that don't quite match in terms of details. My initial thought was that some "one of these things is not like the others" would help narrow things down, and perhaps that is true, but it's not obvious at the moment. So, we tried doing a PoE that isn't so role-claim dependent.

Town

Amrun - had her as town yesterday, and when we started thinking about what scum benefit there was to claiming when she did, we realized there isn't much scum benefit at all, and it looks more like town trying to bring some clarity to a murky situation.
Nero - He seems to be classic paranoid town, with his cards held close to his vest.
MsM - Orcinus has her as solid town. I'm always suspicious of her in every game we play, but the only thing about her that bugs me right now is her D1 suspicion of Ghostlin, given her role claim.
Beli - basically everything about his day 2 play rings genuine, including all the effort to figure flavor stuff out and use it to make sense of the claims.
Demon - We've had him as town since early on and haven't seen anything at all to change that.
Iece - this is a big change. His thought progressions on the players he's focused on look natural. At first Orcinus flipped out about the milkshake hammer, but on further thought we've concluded that scum would have been more "Look at me preventing a no lynch" than "oops".

Yeah these

ThAd - role claim is of the "one of these is not like the others" form. Has been coasting even when under suspicion.
SoO - Day 1 devoted to Ghostlin. Progression on MsM day 1 looks bad, and then it's dropped day 2.
GCBC - Could be hydra-related, but there's contradiction and more importantly there's a lack of depth somehow in the analyses. The SoO focus seemed kind of useless and I am now wondering if there was some scum theater involved in that,

And with that, we are going to VOTE: SoO

[Amrun]

Nero, nice try to paint me like I'm not reading because I don't know the flavor. None of the flavor talk has included discussion of who a second scum team might consist of, which is what I was asking.

And GCBC, I've been saying this about Mara all along!! It makes NO sense for a doctor to be in this set up, and even if Thad is lying, it STILL makes very little sense. But I think Thad's role is more consistent with the other flipped/claimed roles than Mara's, hence my vote.

[ThAdmiral]

This day is going to go exactly like yesterday. No one can decide on a lynch, and then we rush one at the end of the day.

All this talk about flavour and trying to outguess the set up is not helping. Worse actually, since the conclusion some people are coming to is that I'm lying scum.

Can people explain why demon is town, btw? I would almost accept null, but town?

[sword_of_omens]

sorry guys...works been crazy...i'll be posting today...

[Nero Cain]

Why would town be worried that they got tracked?

Why would scum trot out a fake claim with so little vote pressure?

Its 6 to lynch. She already has two votes and you've claimed that both you and Orc find her suspicious so that's 50%. + its not like scum don't fakeclaim early. Some of ya'll are claiming that Mara is scum, what's the difference between the two claims? + its not like she hard committed to a claim so she still has some flexibility, though she claimed an investigation type role so I doubt she'll be the lynch for today.

+ there's a history of scum claiming to have visited a body but not killed them so I'm on edge.

Amrun, what was your initial reaction to a second kill?

Can you tell me or quote your belli read?