Mini 1451: A Memory of Light (Game Over)

[Selkies]

ThAd, what is your read of Amrun?

[Cephrir]

Vote Count 2.8

ThAdmiral 2

(GoodCop_BadCop, Belisarius)

Ms Marangal 2

(Amrun, Demon)

Demon 2

(ThAdmiral, Ms Marangal)

Amrun 1

(Iecerint)

Belisarius 1

(sword_of_omens)

sword_of_omens 1

(Selkies)

Selkies 1

(Nero Cain)

With 10 alive, it takes 6 to lynch.

Deadline for Day 2 is June 20th at 11:59 PM US Eastern. This is in (expired on 2013-06-20 23:59:59).

[Belisarius]

Jesus, deadline is way too close.

I'm willing to switch to Demon if nobody else is down for lynching ThAd, but I'd rather have ThAd.

Mara, won't you join the winning team?

[sword_of_omens]

@Selkies, you are a town read of mine, so if you gave A dam, you'd be voting with me on Belis instead of voting me...
but alright...obviously my vote on him is getting nowhere....

of the 3 main wagons, i think i'd prefer MsM...

UNVOTE:

Vote: MsM

[Selkies]

unvote

Demon, my town read of you is getting pretty stale. How about some meaningful content?

Orcinus has been sick. I'd like to have some discussion with him about the current game state. If I don't hear from him within the next 12 or so hours, I'll assume that I am on my own for now and put our vote down in the best place I can figure.

[Ms Marangal]

Youre kidding me right swords?

Your going to vote claimed doc over someone who has donw absolute shit?

[Amrun]

Try reading my posts. I made a summary post like two pages for people like you not even trying to follow along.

Ouch, you can be mean amrun.

Ok so here is what I think you are referring to (if I'm wrong please don't snap at me again, my heart won't be able to take it):

@selkies: Wrong. Scum fakeclaiming power roles early isn't odd at all, because they're panicking. It's far more common than town early claiming, because they have the conviction of being town and a desire to protect their PR for the sake of the town.

That's a big reason I suspect Marangal in the first place. I want to re-iterate that it's not just set up spec that makes Marangal scum. Look how she claimed, piecemeal. Look through her ISO and find the scumhunting; it's sparse to nonexistent. Look how little she is concerned with how her claim doesn't fit (this should make her look more closely at other similar roles, and evaluate them in light of her own, but she doesn't). Look how inconsistent and nonsensical she has been re: Ghostlin's claim.

Ok it is a decent case, the most convincing bit is the fact she didn't protect ghostlin. My only counterpoint is this:
Lets say she is scum. Why defend me? I have a role that incriminates her, which she could easily say she thinks is bs (due to her role). Apart from that why defend someone who has claimed town pr at all? Especially town pr that she won't be able to deal with at night?
That's my main reason for thinking she is town.

Yes, I know it relies on me knowing that I am town, which is something you don't have the luxury of doing. But assuming I am town - can you explain her defending me?

ABSOLUTELY. The worst thing that can happen for Scum Marangal at this point is for you to flip town. You flip town commuter, and then we go, "Well, what the fuck, how can there be that AND a doctor?" (Answer: exceedingly unlikely)

As long as you are alive, and people are still even marginally suspicious of you, that WIFOM is still alive. Her defending you is something I find pretty scummy, because I think it's far more natural for a town doctor to suspect you, as a claimed commuter, EVEN IF by some crazy turn of events you are both town.

Youre kidding me right swords?

Your going to vote claimed doc over someone who has donw absolute shit?

Also, this post. Sheesh.

[Ms Marangal]

Ill get to this shit later but I dont undersrand why demon isnt geting lynched. Yeah thads commuter role might have drawn my suspucion if I didnt already rhink that he pretty much town prior to his xlaim.

[Amrun]

Ill get to this shit later but I dont undersrand why demon isnt geting lynched. Yeah thads commuter role might have drawn my suspucion if I didnt already rhink that he pretty much town prior to his xlaim.

This statement reads to me like "why isn't the lurker getting lynched over meeeee it's NOT FAIR" combined with "my read on thad is not coming off as genuine oh crap."

I'm trying not to tunnel here.

But it's hard.

So hard.

I can't see beyond this. IT MUST DIE.

[sword_of_omens]

on my phone but:

Ill get to this shit later but I dont undersrand why demon isnt geting lynched. Yeah thads commuter role might have drawn my suspucion if I didnt already rhink that he pretty much town prior to his xlaim.

I'm sorry MsM, but I really do think you have the better chance of flipping scum ...
2 quick questions...
why didn't you protect your town read?
and did you identify yourself in the dream world to the others?

[sword_of_omens]

wrong quote..I meant that to be her #1105

[Nero Cain]

I sound like do something. I'll post later I guess.

[Ms Marangal]

I thought I was more likely to be targeted and I cant protect while im walking.

I also did not reveal myself to the other two.

Amrun, I didnt say anything like that in that post. I havr ben makih it clear rhat i hink demon is scum and I dont know what where youre cominf from re thad. I dwfended him wven before hw claimed. My defense of him had nothing to do with the dact that he haf a role thar could "incriminate" me. Part of yourreason for thinking im scum has to do with "me not doing anything" though demons done nothing but defended himself and hand waved all accusations toward him away

[Amrun]

But the defense of Thad pre-claim is irrelevant because the claim should have had you re-evaluating and you already admitted it DIDN'T. I don't think that's what town would do.

Demon is lurking, but that doesn't mean he should be lunched over people who are far scummier.

[Selkies]

I haven't seen Orcinus online since he let me know he was sick on Friday or Saturday, so I'm assuming I'm on my own for now.

@GCBC that wasn't much reaction to being downgraded to my scumpile. (Ironic coming from me, I know)

@Demon still looking for some meaningful content. Based on day 2 so far, I would not have you in my town pile.

@Sword, I have a town read on Beli. I'll review your case on him, but I doubt it will change my mind today.

SoO has been upgraded to town pending discussion with Orcinus, but I expect he'll agree.

Right now, I feel like it's kinda critical to sort MsM and ThAd.

[GoodCop_BadCop]

So upon an ISO read of him, I’m for sure willing to lynch demon today. At this point, his lurking feels like an attempt to let the thad/mara fight keep him free from more scrutiny.

Looking back at some major plays he made during day one, finding stuff I missed or felt needed to be re-iterated:

His interaction with Selkies in 30/31 feels…. Forced. As does 35. 35 he states that to him, Matt appears to be trying to read ghost, which is a pro-town thing. But then in 53 he states Selkies and Matt are both scumreads. The flip from scummy to town to scummy was never explained, and his posts don’t seem to be in the RVS mindset.

Jumping ahead past lots of one-liners with little content, we get to 531, with the “vig this shit” line. This didn’t get noticed much at all until MsM pointed it out much later, but upon re-reading it feels icky, like a green hiccup taste. Him playing it off as a frustration joke in 741 feels icky too.
669, self-meta is bad, excplaining one’s own scum-meta as a response to why they’re not scum is worse.

989 is a discredit of Thad’s case about wagon analysis instead of actually responding to it
I’ve already covered 1097, but he’s got three flips to go off of, and is making excuses for not actively scumhunting.

~BC

PS: (Selkies you can't get every read right but it’s okay. More than willing to play the sorting game though. What did you have in mind?)

[Amrun]

GCBC, what are you feeling about msm and Thad?

[Selkies]

So upon an ISO read of him, I’m for sure willing to lynch demon today. At this point, his lurking feels like an attempt to let the thad/mara fight keep him free from more scrutiny.

Looking back at some major plays he made during day one, finding stuff I missed or felt needed to be re-iterated:

His interaction with Selkies in 30/31 feels…. Forced. As does 35. 35 he states that to him, Matt appears to be trying to read ghost, which is a pro-town thing. But then in 53 he states Selkies and Matt are both scumreads. The flip from scummy to town to scummy was never explained, and his posts don’t seem to be in the RVS mindset.

Jumping ahead past lots of one-liners with little content, we get to 531, with the “vig this shit” line. This didn’t get noticed much at all until MsM pointed it out much later, but upon re-reading it feels icky, like a green hiccup taste. Him playing it off as a frustration joke in 741 feels icky too.
669, self-meta is bad, excplaining one’s own scum-meta as a response to why they’re not scum is worse.

989 is a discredit of Thad’s case about wagon analysis instead of actually responding to it
I’ve already covered 1097, but he’s got three flips to go off of, and is making excuses for not actively scumhunting.

~BC

PS: (Selkies you can't get every read right but it’s okay. More than willing to play the sorting game though. What did you have in mind?)

Given I think Orcinus has a reasonably solid town read on Demon I'm a little hesitant if it comes down to voting him, but he has become a person of interest.

I have a tendency to think Mara's scummy almost every time we play. I feel like I can read HD on his own, but he didn't play this game enough for me to get much of a sense of him. Given all the cross-confirmations about some of these roles or role modifiers or whatever the hell dreamwalking and channeling are, I'm not willing to lynch her today.

I've changed my mind about SoO after rereading him one more time and am back to leaning town. He's another I'd like to talk with Orcinus about.

Given the size of this game, I just simply don't have enough scum reads and that worries me.

Re your PS, a wrong read from me is a scum tell according to Majiffy. Not that he'll follow my vote, though :/

[Selkies]

GCBC do you feel like MsM and ThAd's claimed roles are mutually exclusive in a game this size?

[GoodCop_BadCop]

Amrun, Have you read my recent posts? I’ve been VERY clear that Thad is scum.
By process of Thad being Scum, I find Mara to be town. I know you’re very much thinking she’s scum right now, but I don't think she is. Like I said before, this feels like the town-mara I played with in my newbie game.

Selkies, the other head may feel otherwise, but yes. For both of them to be town with their claimed roles, and with the risk of doing some setup speculation here, scum would have to either have a strongman kill ability, a roleblocker that hits before the ability to commute, or both. I certainly wouldn’t devise a setup like that, though. The sheer amount of claimed commuters personally makes me doubt the odd one out. Hence my current vote.

~BC

[Selkies]

Selkies, the other head may feel otherwise, but yes. For both of them to be town with their claimed roles, and with the risk of doing some setup speculation here, scum would have to either have a strongman kill ability, a roleblocker that hits before the ability to commute, or both. I certainly wouldn’t devise a setup like that, though. The sheer amount of claimed commuters personally makes me doubt the odd one out. Hence my current vote.

I am not as sure. Which of these assumptions are false, given what has been shared? Can they all be true and one of ThAd and MsM still be scum?

- dreamwalking is dangerous: MsM and Ghostlin confirmed that bad stuff could happen on day 1. Ghostlin died apparently from something that happened while dreawmwalking.
- dreamwalking makes other abilities unuseable: MsM said that she couldn't doc-protect and dreamwalk at the same time, and chose the dreamwalking as personal protection from most night actions that dreamwalking affords.
- ThAd's character claim is a major good guy in the series. Not a for sure that Mat or whoever wouldn't have been reserved as a safe claim for scum
- ThAd's foxglove w/e lets him detect some kinds of night actions targeting him. Beli confirmed this fits the flavor?

Although that kind of detection makes as much sense for scum as for town I guess, what about the flavor? Would a bad guy have it?

tbh wanting both these claimed roles in the game another night is my best argument for voting demon today. :/

[Demon]

Jesus what a load of fucking overjustification.

Sick dude, I'm sure it was hard to trawl through my ISO and just go "Wow..this is forced..therefore it wasnt a town mindset..therefore you're scum..." or "Go ddamn what an icky post ugh" to avoid doing any real work. I don't want to say, but ladies and gents opportunism at its best.

Half the shit you say about me...isn't actually true, and knowing how thorough of a fucking player you've been acting all game (and even going through the trouble to meta someone...come on). I made it abundantly clear on more than one count before your garbage case that the REASON I found Matt scummy was because of his gambit (that I didn't recognize as a gambit before).

If anyone gave more of a fuck than me to actually look through GCBC's points you'll see that he even tried to use my "self-meta" thing to call me scum...ROFL. I know that you know that what I did wasn't even so much self-meta as being honest, buddy.

THIS

is where my vote would be if you guys were down to make this happen today.

[Demon]

At this point, his lurking feels like an attempt to let the thad/mara fight keep him free from more scrutiny.

I've already commented on it...

[Iecerint]

Demon and ThAd would be OK lynches. ThAd was pretty scummy re: single-mindedness on the milkshake stuff D1. The main thing he's got going for him from my POV is that Mat is a pretty popular character in the fandom, so, to the extent that that modulates anything, I think it makes Mat more likely to be town. But we've already seen tertiary characters like Birgitte and Siuan Sanche flip, so my sense of what would "normally" be expected is probably not correct. It also weirds me out that GCBC wants to lynch ThAd, but then made that post about Demon a moment ago. So that stuff makes me more comfortable with lynching ThAd of these 3.

Unvote; Vote: ThAdmiral

Demon I thought was town D1 but his play D2 has kinda shaken my faith. I also really don't like the his vig claim + softclaim. Preferable to NL, but not to ThAd.

MsM I think really shouldn't be lynched.

[Amrun]

Amrun, Have you read my recent posts? I’ve been VERY clear that Thad is scum.
By process of Thad being Scum, I find Mara to be town. I know you’re very much thinking she’s scum right now, but I don't think she is. Like I said before, this feels like the town-mara I played with in my newbie game.

Yes, I know. I meant more in relation to one other. Do you think their roles are mutually exclusive?