Newbie 1390 -- Game Over

[Guyett]

I have my graduation tomorrow so I'm gonna have limited access

[bestwillcui]

It's ok.

[Cabd]

I have some of it ready, so whatever, I'll post what I have so far now, then keep working. I'm kinda doing this while at work sneakily so yeah.

[Cabd]

Ryhx (And Darq’s lack of non-rvs posts)

Spoiler: Ryhx ISO

Darq siteflaked when I did my little RVS joke, so there’s that, but as GM said, it’s not ACTUALLY alignment indicative. I was looking for the response to it, not the site-flaking angle of it…

Anyways, reads list in catchup post, 266
I like this list. It doesn’t really hedge bets, it feels like an open thought process. RYHX, did you ever go meta feg for gambits as town? He picks up on GM’s lack of a case solidly, this guy is town. Not voting here.

267 also seems super innocent. This question doesn’t come from scum very often, and newbscum even less so. Given that all of ryhx’s current games on site are newbie games, feels solid there.

To steal a page out of Ffery’s book, the trajectory on his reads is great in 284. He’s slowly changing them to adapt to the situation, and it’s great.
Still doubts me in 315 and shows a clear case of researching game theory. Lots of effort put into this.
Post 340 and 342 his interaction with myself and guyett shows he’s still actively scumhunting outside his published cases. Once again, great trajectory.
355 and a few others earlier he shows willingness to listen to posts no matter author, even if it’s somebody he’s scumreading.
385 once again showing willingness to work his town reads over again.

Conclusion: Town. Really Town.

Bestwillcui

Spoiler: Best ISO

38 arrives to the party late
95 reminds us he’s still here, throws down a vote.
Post 108 justifies said vote on guyett.
Post 118 we get “a reaction test” justification.
Post 126 he responds to the flack jasonwazza gives him over it. His reads list is interesting. His only scumreads are players lurking, and Jason in a form of OMGUS.
Post 149 emphesizes Jason’s vote on him as scummy once again. My issue with this post is in his change in guyett read, though, as guy really didn’t change much in between.
Upon reread, post 178 is REALLLLY bad. 180 doesn’t make it much better.
So on my initial read posts 219 through 253 leaned town to me, but then I remembered a certain game of my past. Where scum acting in almost an identical fashion. http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=50&t=25373 GO read the posts by Norfolk Enhance. Giving me a very similar feeling.

Post 254, another reads post, let’s look at some trajectory, shall we?
Darq goes from “Possibly lurking scum” to “no read said little”
Jasonwazza goes from Leaning scum to town due to meta. Best, which games of Jason’s did you read? And what you’re your findings as to his town metagame and scum metagame from them?
Goodmorning goes from plain town read to “town null at worst” for genuine seeming scum hunting.
Feg goes from “leaning town” to “maybe town, kinda”
Derivan goes from “leaning scum” to “appears to be a little scummy but don’t udnertsand case on him”
Guyett goes from a lack of a read to null

I go from “not sure” to “a little scummy but the case on him is a little over”
Garg goes from Town read to null maybe light town.
Know what this post screams?

HEDGE HEDGE HEDGE those reads. Especially with lack of vote.

283-321 from him also reminds me of Norfolk, quite a bit, actually.

321: Why would you vote a null read over somebody you had identified as scum? Even if you identified derivan as more town, why not vote somebody else in your scumpile?
377 How would you know there was going to be a wagon on me? You had me down as “I don’t understand the wagon on him” but now you claim you got the wagon and why/how it would form?

Conclusion: Town read removed, Scum

[Cabd]

Derivan

Spoiler: Derivan ISO

Comes in a tad bit late in 55. That;’s fine though. First post confirms he’s not brand new, just to this site. First post out the gate is asking questions. Forget who said it first, but “Scum comes into a thread from a QT. Town comes into it blind kicking and screaming” This grants him an early town read.
57’s followup is a great post. Like, actively asking questions and looks for input, while still giving his thoughts without waiting for them to give theirs. His vote has good explaination for it, and does not feel forced. The only part of this post I don’t like is the “Cabd and GM are strong players that have posted the most” sentence since it’s not always true that most active=town; go see my scum newbie game I linked
64, his reaction to Jason’s post is kinbda off, but not nessicarily scummy. The last line about it being scummy that I made the RVS joke is, however, because it was totally ignored in his first few posts, especially since he noticed feg’s RVS move.
78 he leaves himself a backdoor by mentioning that it could have been a joke like GM mentioned, which seems weird to me. It’s mini-fence sitting.
147 he interacts with bestwillcui, garg, GM, myself. This is still appearing town to me.
191 reads list has best and myself as most scum. Garg as most town, followed by GM and Guyett.
319 he swings onto my wagon with “cabd is stalling heavily” reasons, which is kinda dumb because meatspace issues are meatspace issues, but whatever. His total swing on GM is a bit distressing, however.
Post 352has him deflect Feg’s point on opportunistic voting instead of directly answer it, which is kind of panicing.

Conclusion: Could be Scum, but it’s a lean, not a sure thing

[bestwillcui]

Huh...I'm not really understanding you that well.

What is that picture supposed to represent?

[Cabd]

Gargantula

Spoiler: Gargantula ISO

Pretty standard RVS vote in 39
40 shows research, but not the alignment indicative kind, he’s showing effort though.
44/52 are just kinda of pointless, meh
68 is the first good content post. I like the flow of the post, and I especially like his line of questioning that flows not just from the posts he quotes but also his own logical analysis.
81 is a town post. He follows up on his scumread. And it’s really good.
85 has another sense of flow to it. He’s not afraid to point out things that don’t add up to him and his posts have a feel of complete open mindset. 93/94 follows up well
Post 116, to quote Nachomamma, is so town it warms up my townie heart. He does active analysis and comparison where scum could easily ignore it for an easy hop onto the cabd wagon.
Post 134 is a reads list. Look at all those questions and interactions. Actively engaging all his reads for more data. For the record, I’m hereby retiring the “you” tell because it’s shit and I should feel bad. Anyways, it’s a town list.

Post 164 solidifies my town read. This thing is so town it hurts my eyes help. He actively engages with me in what I now admit was a shit tell in a way that seems very genuine. He made the ffort to go look it up and see exactly what I meant, etc.

204-236 are great followups and looking to get a specific read on me that he seemed to be lacking, and his wanting to understand where I am coming from is town as hell.

248/249 are great posts (they’re double posts, so it’s one actual post). Like, ILY garg for it.

262 more interaction with best, his top scumread, in a way that appears to not just tunnel but also look for reasoning to potentially change his read. Also interacts with other players at the same time.

270, doesn’t back down from his scumread even when momentum swings elsewhere.

293-320 is a great followup to a few theory posts. I’m running out of ways to call garg town.

322 he keeps up on his read. Not backing down once but still being open to scumhunt elsewhere. If this is forced I will give garg a pony in PG.

339’s reaction to guy counter-ISOing me is interesting. Like “hmm he’s pointing out thnkgs I didn’t think of” interesting. He also questions the numbers.

357, he questions the unvotes on the best wagon AND questions pointless vote.
368, seeks to understand guyett’s mindset, not just his posts. He’s also looking for trajectory on reads too.
372/376 he’s STILL not backing down, scum would have backed down by now. (Garg, Best) are certainly not BOTH scum, this would be hard busing on a whole new level, and given that I townread garg….
379, notes Jason’s hop off with great scrutiny.
381 pushes Jasonwazza again.
383 is just yet another picture post, meh
389 is time issues, skipped
394 Bam here’s the crux of the issue!
397 Still super open about his mental and thought processes AND remains parked on best.

Conclusion: TOWN TOWN TOWN TOWN TOWNNNNNNNN

[Cabd]

That's where I've got to stop for now, I'll do the two SE slots and the IC slot in a bit.

I also need to meta Jasonwazza, because right now I'm thinking a Best/Jason scumteam.

Huh...I'm not really understanding you that well.

What is that picture supposed to represent?

You're hedging your bets on wagons.

[TheGarantula]

It's a hedge... Because he said hedging...
Could someone tell me what QT means in this context?

Forget who said it first, but “Scum comes into a thread from a QT. Town comes into it blind kicking and screaming”

[Cabd]

Lastly, UNVOTE: until I'm done.

P-edit: garg, it means QuickTopic, the message board scum is given to communicate on this website. They get to use it before the game starts, and during the night phases.

[Cabd]

Also, thinking thinking i'm intentionally holding back on the ISO's is a shit reasoning for finding me scum. Like cabd-scum would try to force a no lynch. That's like claiming scum straight up. Not to mention it wouldn't work because it's 7/2 and there's no way given our level of activity we'd see a no lynch. Jason especially should know better than that.

[JasonWazza]

You've had the time to do this, and you don't have fucking excuses at this point Cabd.

[Cabd]

In case you decided to skip them, i kinda JUST posted several of them.

[Cabd]

The reason I need to meta you more jason is that this is giving me hell of Vengeball vibes.

[Derivan]

Took a fresh look at everything from page 1, here are actual ISOs and reads, not promises. Disclaimer: I have deleted out non-relevant parts of quoted posts to cut down filler.

Spoiler: Guyett ISO

Yes but why would I bring attention on to myself like I did in the post below if I was Scum?
I can assure you I am not scum... but I am not a very useful townie either

Lol I just read up on WIFOM. I dont know if that would be a good strategy for a mafia person or not though.

This is a classic WIFOM argument that turned into a DOUBLE WIFOM argument and also appears like a vanilla breadcrumb/claim. You later claim the DOUBLE WIFOM was a joke, even though you admit that it looked very scummy.

bestwillcui

- Another lurker. I suspect one of the mafia will be one of our lurkers and another will probably be either the most active or the second most active poster who spends their rime dodging suspicion and

my bus

their partner as a technique to hide his/her scummyness.

Just noticed this...missed the 'a' in 'may' which turned "may bus their partner" into "my bus". Most likely a typing error, but turning over all stones here.

Cabd - Active until people called him up on his 'joke' and then disappeared for a few hours to think things over? Tbh I'm getting a bit of a scum read here. I agree with the bussing comment that someone made.

@Guyett
I never understood this. Why did you agree that Cabd was more likely than any other player to bus his scum partner? You never provided a reason.

Fegelein - semi experienced player and your later non burnout related posts make sense.

@Guyett
Would like to see an ISO of Fegelein by you that explains how his posts "make sense".

bestwillcui - so far comes off as the scummyiest one due to the posts over the last 24 hrs or so

Understandable.

Cabd - I am still very suspicipus of Cabd

Agreed.

Derivan - getting a slight scum read here

Reason?

Fegelein - slight town read, on SM's radar which is interesting though

This was after Fegelein's OMGUS vote on me and shaky grounds claim that my posts seemed "manufactured".

TheGarantula - medium town read. more logical posting and I can see why he has targeted me. all the wifom was entirely accidental and could look pretty bad lol

Agreed that it does look pretty bad. Seems like a play to write it off as inexperience, which is strange since a few posts before you made the case that you were only inexperienced on this site.

JasonWazza - town read so far. experienced player who is playing slightly abrasively and calling out people on tells. this activity seems similar to styles in old games of his

You parroting my meta read.

goodmorning - town read for reasons already stated by me and garantula.

At this point I did agree with you. This was before GM started making some extremely questionable moves.

This is interesting. You talk about reading JW's meta in the above post and then:

@Jason how do I see meta's?

Either you didn't know what meta stood for (even through I mention in my post that I read through his previous games and was making a "meta" read) or this confirms you were parroting my meta read and never read through JW's previous games. Why would you lie about that? Doesn't make much sense and then:

JasonWazza (SE) - I've been looking at some of your other games and your playing style would tend to indicate town.

You had already said you read through his games days before. WTF.

I don't really understand? I just asked if it was time for a hammer soon? How exactly does that make me scum aligned? I'm quite sure Best is scum and I'm quite positive I'm town aligned... however if you need proof by all means lynch me.
I would however refer people to post 183

In post #222 you respond to me calling you out for wishy-washy play. Your explanation was satisfactory for me. However I dislike like that you used a "if you need proof by all means lynch me" argument.

goodmorning (IC) - Right now I would not be surprised if you flipped scum but I have you null at the moment. There have been lots of promises of read lists and whatnot with out any thing coming which is firing up the flashing red lights for me. Null read for now until you post a good readlist

Interesting.

Best can wait, Cabd is annoying me now

UNVOTE:
VOTE: cabd

Did you really use 'annoying' as a reason? You should have just stated that this was a OMGUS vote.

I'd be willing to bet that only 1 from Cabd and Best is actually scum.... my money is on Cabd at the moment.

from the other 6 players the only one that I'm relatively confident that is town is Gar.
I have a light town read on Jason and an even lighter one on GM
Feg, Deri and Rhyx are all null. However from experience one of those 3 and possibly GM will prob turn out to be scum. We just have to wait until one hopefully gives us a scumtell

Your math here is fucking terrible.

Conclusion: Poorly played, null read.
@Guyett
What are your thoughts on Cabd finally delivering?

Gar ISO read

I have no points of contention with Gar's posts, besides the TRIPLE POST (totally your fault).

Conclusion: Active scum hunting, town read.

Spoiler: Cabd ISO

The in-the-spoiler text is different for goodmorning if you look carefully. He uses "you" "yours" "your" etc in all his spoiler text but "he" in goodmorning's.

Please come back to this post later if one of them flips scum.

What you just did. Essentially claiming your role is scum-aligned. 'cuz it is.

Okay, you're totally wavering caught scum now, guylett.

Conclusion: After re-reading Cabd the things that really stick out as scummy to me are his blanket assertions and claims without support. Now that he has posting actual content (with support no less) I am less sure that he is scum. I dislike claims of "Meatworld" issues when you keep promising content. If you know your schedule and don't have time to post ISOs and readlists, DONT SAY YOU ARE GOING TO POST THEM AND THEN NOT DELIVER. That being said I can't see any scum motivation in providing promises and not delivering since this would naturally cast suspicion. The only motivation I can think of would be to somehow cause a non-vote. Since Cabd has now delivered, the latter seems less likely.

@Cabd wagoneers
What are your thoughts on Cabd's recent contributions?

From scum to null read.

UNVOTE: Cabd

Spoiler: Rhyx ISO

Finally caught up. My wall of text, as promised.

cabd

:
I didn't have a problem with his fake out at the start, but his jumping on other people for fairly small things while not following through (he never did tell us what he was going for with the activity tell exactly) with anything (except guyett) along with the way he picks at one player at a time gives me bad vibes. Also I dislike anyone who calls upon their meta as proof. Potential scum.

@Rhyx
Could it also be laziness? After reading my conclusion above what are your thoughts?

fegelein

:
this may be dragging up dead horses to flog, but i though his gambit in rvs seemed scummier then cabd's. Firstly, the way he piggy-backed on cabd's gambit, secondly (as pointed out by goodmorning), the really poor execution of it. How was he expecting for an L-2 with just 'semi-serious'? How was that supposed to trigger a reaction from Derivan? And giving up?
It was a poor gambit and it seems more like scum trying to stir shit rather then scumhunting from town. Though he has excused it away as burnout, I will have to go back and check whether he's executed better gambits in other games before I take his word on it. I'll leave his as potential-scum until I do.

goodmorning

: Maybe its the nature of an IC, has a feel of more commentor then participant. I don't have a good read on her, but please answer this: up to 185 you've mostly been on Feg's case, but then you suddenly throw out a vote for cabd with no explanation and cabd hadn't posted anything since your previous post. Why and what happened? You continuing implying cabd's scummy in your subsequent posts but you never give any reason for it.

Agree with these reads.

guyett

: the newbie who's not really a newbie. That he feels the need to keep mentioning that he's town is pinging me. He is also constantly badgering people to post entire read lists, which is a little annoying, and maybe he's scum trying to feel up other people's positions. Because he's mostly been non-committal about his reads, see 144 where he basically ended with 'but it could be anyone'.

Decided

VOTE: GUYETT

The OTT reaction to being ISO'd (halfway even, without much new information) screams panicked scum. Puts up an ISO that mostly restates what happens and has some specious reasoning to it thats really reaching.

@Rhyx
Couldn't this also be indicative of poor play? I think your initial read was spot on.

Troubling to me is that GM admits to you that she is a 'defense expert' and then you shift your vote. What made you reconsider?

jasonwazza

: I don't think his aggressive play is indicative of anything other then style. Don't have much to say other than as a whole his posting feels pro-town and that's where I'm putting him.

thegarantula

:
He's really combing posts to find scum, I'm in agreement that this guy is town.

Agree, agree.

And with Derivan popping in out of the blue..everyone looks scummy I need to get off work and read again.

Cabd has been at the top of my scum reads and with best appearing more and more like a six year old trying to play "My First Little Game Of Mafia" I shifted my vote to the next scummiest on my list.

See:

Current reads from town to scum
townread
TheGarantula
goodmorning
Guyett
nullread
Darq
JasonWazza
Fegelein
scumread
Cabd
bestwillcui

Conclusion: Active scum hunting, good use of logic, leaning town on Rhyx

Will complete the rest soon.

[JasonWazza]

OK if your gonna meta because of that vengeball i will give you another game that basically fucks that.

http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=11&t=25051

This game i lurk hard as town because the game is just meh to read

Also you've had the time TO DO ALL OF THEM

[Cabd]

There's no way the above reads list was faked to match my own reads, so that post is genuine fwiw.

P-edit: Jason, you don't know my IRL schedule. You don't know what is happening in my life. In fact, you know next to nothing about me outside this game. if you did, you'd realize shit happens. I don't go bitching on the thread about what happens in my personal life, but shit has been happening. You want me to give you a mommy note showing my shifts or something? Seriously. What the hell are you on?

[TheGarantula]

There's no way the above reads list was faked to match my own reads, so that post is genuine fwiw.

How do you know this? I don't understand. (That's not sarcasm is it?)

[Guyett]

Ok Cabd I'm willing to give you the benefit of the doubt for the time being. There's a lot of good logical points raised
UNVOTE: cabd

I'll need to think on stuff but I'd be leaning towards Best or Deri for now.

[Guyett]

That's where I've got to stop for now, I'll do the two SE slots and the IC slot in a bit.

I also need to meta Jasonwazza,

because right now I'm thinking a Best/Jason scumteam.

Huh...I'm not really understanding you that well.

What is that picture supposed to represent?

You're hedging your bets on wagons.

What has made you move off me?

[bestwillcui]

Because I realized that you're mistakes could have easily been newb mistakes. Like people new to the site.

Also, you started contributing more so I stopped.

[ryhx]

Wow ok, lots of stuff. Direct questions to me first:

@Rhyx and Best you are both still voting for me, has the last day or 2 changed your mind on your vote? I agree Deri is acting suspicious with his observational style of play, it seems very much like active lurking

You've not become any less scummy so far in my opinion. Other people are rising up in the scum ranks though so that helps you out. But..

@ryhx: Same question, where would your hypothetical compromise vote go?

As in if I cant get Guyett who do I want? Derivan. I can see a guyett/derivan scum pair.

RYHX, did you ever go meta feg for gambits as town?

I only checked out his last few games, but he didn't play any gambits.

Re Cabd:

@Rhyx
Could it also be laziness? After reading my conclusion above what are your thoughts?

Now after playing more than 2 days and with how active this group is (which is so awesome ), yeah i can totally see laziness/busy-ness. Giant walls are hard when sneaky posting from the toilet at work.

Re Guyett:

@Rhyx
Couldn't this also be indicative of poor play? I think your initial read was spot on.

My initial read was scummy on guyett. Well I don't think its optimal play as either scum or town. But that seemed like a very over blown reaction. Town I think generally panics less.

Troubling to me is that GM admits to you that she is a 'defense expert' and then you shift your vote. What made you reconsider?

GM explained her votes well to me, her voting cabd was not as sudden as I thought and her drop on feg was ok-reasoned. I don't have a town-read on her yet, but mostly I felt others were more scummy.

[ryhx]

Quick notes on derivan:

His jump on cabd seemed sudden and quick and it felt like hes jumping in, in protection of guyett. Now that he's caught flack he's reversed his reads.

Also its rather funny that he should jump in and declare cabd's stalling and is scum when we've also been waiting for derivan's promised reads since several days ago.

[TheGarantula]

Wasn't goodmorning the other one who promised reads, not Derivan?

[Derivan]

Quick notes on derivan:

His jump on cabd seemed sudden and quick and it felt like hes jumping in, in protection of guyett. Now that he's caught flack he's reversed his reads.

Also its rather funny that he should jump in and declare cabd's stalling and is scum when we've also been waiting for derivan's promised reads since several days ago.

I called him out for wishy-washy play and how asking about hammering looked bad. I think he has made some very poor plays, but could not find a scum motivation in his moves after re-reading him. I still don't think he is scum at the moment, but with his poor play/confusing moves I moved him down to a null read in Post 414.

Was it not logical for me to move my vote to the next scummiest person on my read list? You shifted your vote from GM to Guyett in a very similar manner after putting them both on your list of potential scum in Post 266 (where you also called Cabd scummy) after stating that GM cleared up your questions about her. Pot, kettle.

Cabd had been stalling for over a week and there have been multiple people calling him out on in. Post 257 I made just before you replaced in, then the site went down. As soon as I saw the site was back up I made Post 319. I did reverse my read of Cabd and have moved him to a null read due to the content of his last posts.

@Rhyx
When have I ever put anything but a slight town read on Guyett? Where did I promise reads where I did not follow through on? What reason do you have to misrep?

I will finish up with the rest of my ISOs and reads tonight.