Open 506: Pick Your Power X/Y, Game Over

[Smudger]

i'm sorry if you got the wrong impression, but it was his reaction to my post that was more the cause of my vote as opposed to the presentation of the theory itself, which is, in my mind, a nulltell. again, in a later post, i point out that the reason i brought up his number was NOT because it was a scumtell (another nulltell) but that i felt it was relevant info that he conveniently didn't fit into his theory and in fact didn't in a spectacular way. again, his response made me more suspicious.

but, his reasoning would in my eyes appear sound and, in isolation, work to an extent, the problem is though, and as it has been pointed out in thread, it is very much random and there are opposing possibilities, again which have been presented in the thread. , As for his reaction, taking into context, is that a reason for a vote?

[Smudger]

Case on Stryker:

post 12 - Posts a picture instead of RVS, Deckard calls him out for it in #14, which gets ignored

post 24 - I really dislike this post, needlessly discredits Siveure when I consider his #23 a pretty decent resource of quotes. If anything Siv's draft number pick is WIFOM, so there's no reason not to take Siv seriously if he's posting useful material, unlike the pointless fluff that Stryker throws down at the end of this post.

post 28 - Complaining about WIFOM when his last post was full of it. Strikes me as pretty contradictory, and looks like Stryker's beginning a pattern of reacting to other people's posts and criticising them while showing no initiative.

post 31 - Here come the major scumpoints. Take a look at that last sentence,

"There is not much point discussing why someone chose 1 over another numbers imo"

, but wait a minute wasn't Stryker critiquing Siv's number choice and speculating over town choosing number 1 in post 24? Wasn't Stryker speculating that scum wouldn't double up with numbers in post 28? So there's not much point in discussing numbers, but why is that all I've seen from Stryker? Although, to be more accurate, I'd label it reactionary critique and discrediting of other peoples posts while throwing out some waffly comments related to the draft order.

The only aspect of Hoopla's theory from the other game that I looked at was to consider where Stryker falls in the draft order. He chose 10, which is unique, so I still like my scum read. At this stage I would've only reconsidered the read if he'd been a 2 or a 4. That's not to say scum can't be in those numbers, it's just favourable for them to have unique numbers higher up the draft order.

@Belisarius

And that's why I'm

not

voting you or Smudger.

Taking this post

Draft order is can be very relevant with PYP, and number theory really helps identify the best scum candidates.

Hoopla almost broke this game for scum in Day 1. I was scum that game, I'm going to read over it again and remind myself exactly why I was sweating it out so much.

So at least 1 in every double and 2 in every triple is town, right?

Well, yes and no.

It's not definitive, but it's a great indicator. Scum still could've deliberately doubled up - it's been done in one game before, by Hoopla no less - and I could also be scum who is now just misleading people with theories. The bottom line is go search for scummy players, that's what I'm doing as well, however once you've identified suspect players I reckon draft order theories have a good role to play in developing lynch lists or helping with PoE.

The two posts I'm referencing currently from Open 427's PYP game are Hoopla's #100 (which I'd already linked) and Hoopla's #230.

The #230 is very interesting as it introduces the concept of randomness and how people tend to interpret what is random a lot differently from what is truly random. The gist of it is that when you get 3 people (ie. the scum team) to pick 3 numbers in consultation with each other, they'll try to make the numbers look a bit "random" lest they leave an obvious link to one of their scumbuddies. What that means is that they usually avoid patterns like 4,6,8 or 6,7,8 or other number sequences, even though these are just as likely to come up in a random number generator.

So if we take that line of thinking and put it into context: I'm currently voting Stryker (10), so I consider it very unlikely that he's in a scum team with both Smudger (6) and Belisarius (8), although there could still be one scum among them. So 6, 10, ? and 8, 10, ? are possible, but I'd consider a sequence of 6, 8, 10 highly unlikely for the scum team.

Just some food for thought.

In both theses posts we go back to the number analysis theories presented, and I know getting caught up in them is not helping at this stage of the game as IIRC PPP (Pecan) has suggested. But here is a thought, the 2 people who have introduced these theories are obviously versed in them and have bought them in as guides for us, but as there is so much randomness involved here, would not throwing a dart at a board with the numbers selected by those in a game be just as good at saying, "this person is probably scum because their number is high or low"? What I am trying to say could this just not be a way of confusing us and focusing attention on those that fit the criteria both models present so we tunnel away at those holding those numbers? I know this has been suggested but could not one of PPP and Siveure, or both, actually be using this to their advantage?

[Mutleyddmc]

OK so Mutley plays like the way he is all the time is what I now read and the discussion that is on going with regard to this is how is that beneficial and why should we not lynch him(Policy Lynch)? I don't get it though? if he is like this in most games and practically walks through D1 unhindered by adopting this playing style how does that help anyone determine his alignment, and why does he get away with it? I take it from this comment that it is worth the wait?

It doesn't even matter, ignore as much as possible for Day 1 at the very least.

So in essence, Pecan, he gets a wild card into D2?

I get a wild card to the end. I'm that damn good

[Smudger]

Ok, so Siveure is town.
So is pecan

Taking this post

Draft order is can be very relevant with PYP, and number theory really helps identify the best scum candidates.

Hoopla almost broke this game for scum in Day 1. I was scum that game, I'm going to read over it again and remind myself exactly why I was sweating it out so much.

So at least 1 in every double and 2 in every triple is town, right?

And how the hell is my pick of over 9000 relevant? I could have picked TWO and I wouldn't be implicating myself.

I see it as relevant, but I think it implicates him as town.

VOTE: Belisarius leaving an RVS on a town?

So the two people who have introduced opposing number theories to us are town? theories that basically I find confusing and of no use other than to make me look at everyone at the top of the draft pick and the persons holding number 1 and possibly number 4?

thanks that is a great comfort.

[Smudger]

My weekend begins tomorrow so will not be that active until Sunday

[Jennifer]

Vote Count 1.7

Cade

: Mutleyddmc (L-7)

Siveure DtTrikyp

: Alabaska J (L-7)

Stryker

:Siveure DtTrikyp, pieceofpecanpie, Cade, Your Troubles Will Cease (L-4)

TMTOLBTWNTOF

: Sakura Hana (L-7)

Your Troubles Will Cease

: Deckard (L-7)


Not Voting (6): Belisarius, Smudger, Stryker, TMTOLBTWNTOF, Xdaamno, Crimml

With 14 alive, it's 8 to lynch.

The deadline is Monday, July 8 in (expired on 2013-07-08 07:00:00).

If you see any errors, please let me know in thread.

[Sakura Hana]

Oh right, almost forgot
UNVOTE:

[Jennifer]

Stryker, Xdaamno, Crimml, and Cade have been prodded.

[Siveure DtTrikyp]

Eh, I'm in favour of not hitting the 4s because they're 4s. At least two of them are town. My theory isn't really opposing hoopla's, it's just sort of wildly speculating in realms beyond it. And it was mostly a way to get out of rvs. It may not have started that way but that's what it's become (Although I do think cade is scummy).

People doubling up will not happen unless someone deliberately decides to screw with the meta of draft number theory and very few players actually know/care about that and those who do we can disregard the idea for (and it's still unlikely for those, as it IS screwing you over in the draft.) The players I'd be cautious of are alabaska somewhat and pecan definitely, should they flip scum. And me, for everyone else, but as I said it's pointless.

Sure, you may have people fake ignorance of the ideas of number theory but that is REALLY screwing with it and superrisky if someone actually catches you on it and if someone pulls this off successfully they deserve the win.

[Deckard]

_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Belisarius

Null. Not a lot to analyse but said he was going to catch up later

[#144]

.

Mutleyddmc

Null leaning scum. Hasn’t contributed anything relevant yet and is not acting in town’s interest.

Smudger

Null. Seems to have a town read on Siv

[#83]

or maybe I’m misinterpreting it but then seems to backtrack

[#151]

.

Your Troubles Will Cease

Null leaning scum. The scum bit is purely based on gut, which I don’t like but can’t ignore at this stage and based on

[#30]

&

[#44]

which seriously reeks.

Siveure DtTrikyp

Leaning town. Credits go to Siv for getting us out of the RVS that early and I don’t believe for a second that Siv would risk to start theorizing about the draft as scum while he has pucked such a high (and unique) number. Could be WIFOM but I’m not really buying that.

pieceofpecanpie

Leaning town. Clear cut case on Stryker

[#84]

and one of the most interesting posts of the game regarding draft theory and scumhunting

[#97]

.

Alabaska J

Leaning town. He is active and his posts makes sense. Especially

[#145]

which sounds townie.

Xdaamno

Null. Needs to post more.

TMTOLBTWNTOF

Null. I don’t really get TMT’s reads but it seems they are meta related so I have no opinion on that. Seems to insist he think Sakura is town though.

Crimml

Null. Only one post in which she said she would catch up.

Cade

Null leaning scum. Only one post

[#64]

which is a very opportunistic vote on Stryker. While I agree that Stryker looks scummy, Cade hasn’t provided anything else himself.

Stryker

Null leaning scum. Showing no initiative at all. Firmly disagrees with Siv about the Draft WIFOM but doesn’t want to debate further

[#31]

.

Sakura Hana

Null. Hasn’t contributed much either. Seems she is playing like Mutley without the stubbornness and anti townbehaviour.

_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

UNVOTE: Your Troubles Will Cease
VOTE: Mutleyddmc

I don't like Muttle's behaviour and I much prefer voting for him than to leave my RVS vote on YTWC though I have a slight scum read on him too, but based on gut as you have read above.

[Your Troubles Will Cease]

So the two people who have introduced opposing number theories to us are town? theories that basically I find confusing and of no use other than to make me look at everyone at the top of the draft pick and the persons holding number 1 and possibly number 4?

thanks that is a great comfort.

Getting bad feels from this. We're not here to make you feel comfortable. And two people with opposing ideas can both be Town, no matter how confusing you find the ideas.

(for convenience, my user is usually shortened to Troubles, by the way.)

[Siveure DtTrikyp]

Deckard's reads look really surface.

Credits go to Siv for getting us out of the RVS that early and I don’t believe for a second that Siv would risk to start theorizing about the draft as scum while he has pucked such a high (and unique) number.

Hey, what about me starting the theorizing to lock it away from my stupidly high number?

Amd ytwc has a gooood point.

[Alabaska J]

V/LA UNTIL JULY 1

[Siveure DtTrikyp]

Hey, so um, I'd kindof like smudger to say what reads he's gotten so far.

[pieceofpecanpie]

It doesn't even matter, ignore as much as possible for Day 1 at the very least.

So in essence, Pecan, he gets a wild card into D2?

He would anyway, regardless of his try-hard one-liner schtick.

A longer post about some of the other things will have to wait until I get home.

[TMTOLBTWNTOF]

Deckard's read on Smudger: Null but points out something scummy

[Mutleyddmc]

It doesn't even matter, ignore as much as possible for Day 1 at the very least.

So in essence, Pecan, he gets a wild card into D2?

He would anyway, regardless of his try-hard one-liner schtick.

A longer post about some of the other things will have to wait until I get home.

why would I?


Deckards reads are all too null. If you are going to post a list of reads dont make all of them null, its pointless surely. Scum has been found

[pieceofpecanpie]

why would I?

Because it would be much better to lynch from towards to top half of the draft order today, so you're not ideal. Furthermore there are players who have given off scumtells, who are sitting in that top half, whereas your repetitive responses haven't pinged either alignment for me.

[Xdaamno]

Hey folks. Apologies for the lack of posting.

Alabaska's politeness makes him an interesting read. Any recent previous games you can link me to, Al?

VOTE: pieceofpecanpie
for the following reasons:

Sure, if there's a reason for it besides "picking at random from amongst the top five"

If there's no actual reason, it's still RVS.

I have an actual reason for voting Stryker.

Some rudimentary PoE is only part of that.

Nobody genuinely uses PoE this early. It's plausible for town to make up reasons, but scum are more likely to.

Alabaska actually raises a decent point. Choosing a number over 9000 doesn't clear you. Yeah, it doesn't implicate you either, like Siv pointed out in #54, but the defensiveness is interesting.

"actually raises a decent point" is mild scummy language.

So you lied?

Are you planning to keep this up all game?

Leading question.

[Deckard]

Hey, what about me starting the theorizing to lock it away from my stupidly high number?

IMO this would be foolish, and from what I have read you don't seem foolish. The possibility is there, but it's too much WIFOM.

Deckard's read on Smudger: Null but points out something scummy

At the time nobody mentioned it. But now that I have shared my "surface" reads lol, people start to notice. It is contradicting to say the least. Contradiction isn't always scummy, and I'd like to hear more from Smudger on the subject.

Deckards reads are all too null. If you are going to post a list of reads dont make all of them null, its pointless surely. Scum has been found

I tried to cover each player. Of course I have a lot of null reads, not everyone has been active and posted content. Is that some kind of OMGUS reaction without the vote that goes with it because I find your one liners annoying and not helpful? Even there, you aren't helpful. Why no vote?

[Mutleyddmc]

Because I'm voting my scum read. There was no need to cover every player if you have null reads on everyone. Could have just said yer I find these people null but here are my town reads. As you didn't actually give anyone a scum read, just a null leaning scum, not ever a pure leaning scum. Seem contrived and just wanted it to make it seem as if you were anaylsing without actually putting anything real out there.

[Deckard]

Null leaning scum because of the ammount of posts/contribution. Can't say much more about players with only one or two posts as everything can change if they put the effort into it. And that's what I did. Don't expect a wall from me though.

[Mutleyddmc]

Yes but there was little point to it to tell us basically you have 0 scum reads and a few town reads

[Deckard]

There is always a point and it made you write more than one line in post #170, how can it be bad? Hehe!

[Xdaamno]

Btw, just some take-it-or-leave-it advice for town players: It seems there's little point discussing your scumreads with the people you have scumreads on, because if they're scum, they'll try and subvert you.