I will generally not quote things unless I want to talk about specific language just because of the amount of content I am trying to push through.
First: Wagon analyses. Before I get into anything else, I want to have these up for reference. I am assuming that Mhork/Rach are actually masons for these:
Day 1 lynch:
AA9
–
RachMarie
, ChannelDelibird,
Jake from State Farm
,
Lord Mhork
, BROseidon, Amrun, Ghostlin
Ghostlin (2)- fuzzybutternut,
TMTOLBTWNTOF
Lord Mhork (2)- Saint,
ArcAngel9
BROseidon (1)- penguin_alien
Not Voting (1)-
DeasVail
Day 2 lynch:
TMTOLBTWNTOF
- Amrun, Ghostlin, BROseidon, Channeldelibird,
Lord Mhork
, Saint
Amrun (1)- fuzzybutternut
Not Voting (5)-
DeasVail
,
RachMarie
, penguin_alien,
TMTOLBTWNTOF
Day 3 almost-lynch:
BROseidon (4)- penguin_alien,
Lord Mhork
, fuzzybutternut, ChannelDelibird
penguin_alien (1)- Amrun
Ghostlin (1)- BROseidon
ChannelDelibird (1)- Saint
Not Voting (2)-
RachMarie
, Ghostlin
Page 1: Mostly RVS. Saint tries to move it out of RVS, which is a fairly protown move. Penguin attacks him for this, which is strange. Ghost sits on the fence, which looks really bad.
Page 2: In retrospect something sits odd about FBN’s 27. Ghost attacks both p_a and saint, although this sits off with me:
In post 28, Ghostlin wrote:To the point, I sort kinda agreed about Saint's #8, if pseudo serious, is reaching but doesn't really warrant and actual vote on him from PA.
It’s RVS. Something that seems even a little bit off should be attacked. That’s how you generate information. Ghost is basically saying “I think Saint looks bad but not bad enough for someone to pressure the issue,” even though it’s not like there’s any other way to get the game off the ground.
Mac towns it up in his attack on me, imo. Seems like town Mac. Saint starts raging. Pretty much everyone starts pressuring Saint, in the following order: Ghost, Mhork, DV, Doc Pepper, penguin. Penguin also responds with a fairly substantial wall, but she does, however, post a touch fluff content to FBN, while her content to ghost, saint, and myself is all pretty spot on with 0 fluff. FBN then responds with a terrible read (DV scumread at any point in the game was actually terrible and anyone who had that should feel aweful). Safety Dance also posts good content.
Page 3: No idea why I read FBN as town at this point. On reread he seems much less town, although I still agree with my SD read at this point. Ghost continues to post shit and backs of penguin really easily. Saint’s vote on Ghost is good, solid town logic – the vote comes from more than OMGUS. Don’t like how he then wavers on that and calls ghost “dumb town.” Ghost is a solid player. FBN continues to post large amounts of fluff while not actually doing anything. This is very relevant once Jake jumps in.
Page 4: Doc Pepper’s 77 looks off. Saint didn’t really attract attention to himself so much as he got pressured early and started flailing.
In post 79, Ghostlin wrote:Fuzzy's distracting, but as long as he contributes to scum hunting, I don't really care
Setting up a bus for later?
In post 80, Ghostlin wrote:Even I wouldn't want to see Saint lynched at all now without interaction between players, nor would I see PA lynched.
This is very fast from “don’t like PA” to “no-lynch.”
Penguin’s response to RQS is strange. Why bother, it just wastes space. Additionally, the way she questions me is really cautious. She’s not outright attacking me, but trying to poke holes in my game and gauge what I feel. There is a lot of scum motivation in this. Town want to yell about different reads and try to figure out which is true. Scum want to try to sheep consensus as much as possible to induce minimal fighting. She then attacks Saint on the “scum want to blend in” grounds based on something Saint said that was very obviously town-motivated (town want to push for lynches that are optimal for both chance of scumflip and ability to actually make the lynch happen). Saint tries to put together a town-block, which is a protown move.
Page 5: The way FBN talks about DV is strange:
This lacks good trajectory.
FBN fencesits on reading me in response to letters’ townreading me, but doesn’t give anything as to why he’s unsure about me.
In post 116, Nexus wrote:Saint (4)- Lord Mhork, penguin_alien, SafetyDance, Ghostlin
Early wagon forms on Saint over p_a despite saint making the earlier pro-town move to start the tiff and saint generally scumhunting and taking overtly pro-town moves. Chance of CBD or Ghost being scum seems pretty high from this.
In post 122, penguin_alien wrote:If he and Lord Mhork are scum together, they're doing a pretty kick-ass job. Lord Mhork seems to be tunneling pretty narrowly so far, although I don't think I agree with the idea that him pointing out all the scumminess from Saint is scummy in turn--it's not his job to point out the towny things someone does if he thinks he's caught scum. And if he was, it would make me think he was getting ready to undermine his own case, indicating he didn't believe in it.
There is solid scum motivation behind each of these sentences. First one looks like an attempt to set up doubt about the towniness of DV to potentially setup a mislynch later, because leaving him uncontested would result in him being a universal townread. Second and third ones are penguin saying, “town shouldn’t show nuance of thought when making cases. Uncertainty is bad” when everything in this game is probabilistic and including counterpoints adds nuance to cases.
Page 6: Holy fuck Jake’s first reads are horrific, and his early DV push is obviously bad. Ghost calls out letters for waffling when Ghost has done the same, just with more nuance. Ghost chainsaws DV in response to Jake’s “nice omgus” comment, which is bad because it indicates scum trying to read to far into town intent.
Okay I’m out of time for now. From the first 6 pages I want to say scum are most likely Ghost/penguin/FBN, although that third one is a lot weaker. Mhork looks really bad without the mason claim, but I still think the mason claim is legit and scum are banking on town doubting it tomorrow. Saint is fairly obviously town, and the early pressure was largely unjustified.
Also, in case someone decides to hammer before I can work through the rest of the game, scum not killing Rach/Mhork is not alignment-indicative for them. It’s probably LyLo tomorrow on a mislynch, which means that, if the mason claim is legit, it’s better for scum to leave doubt in play as to whether the mason claim is a gambit than it is to have a conf-townie going in.
Either, frankly, is fine.