Open 506: Pick Your Power X/Y, Game Over

[Smudger]

This is not a defense of any kind, but I believe Deckard and I picked the same number, so do you believe that him and I picked the same numbers?

what?

[Smudger]

Troubles leaning town for the same reasons as stated for Pecan but not as strong as Pecan.

I'm not sure of this, but are all of those inherently town? Because it seems to me scum could do the same things.[/quote]

yes agreed, but that is how I am interpreting what is happening at the moment, I may well be wrong, but that is how I am leaning on those 2.

[Smudger]

^^ that should be a quote of

Troubles leaning town for the same reasons as stated for Pecan but not as strong as Pecan.
I'm not sure of this, but are all of those inherently town? Because it seems to me scum could do the same things.

but as there is an "end quote" mid way through it ended the quote. I have removed the "end quote" here to make it read better

[Your Troubles Will Cease]

It seems like a lot of effort to fake scumhunting.

Nothing is too much effort for scumBeli.

Also, Smudger, did you just post four times in about five minutes?

[Sakura Hana]

Sakura, I do qualify why there is a difference and I actually quote the post that makes me lean more towards Xdaamo as scum that you. Yes you have both been as active as each other in the number of posts. but content wise you do not stand out for me as much as Xdaamo.

I fail at reading
UNVOTE:

[Jennifer]

Vote Count 1.10

Cade

: Mutleyddmc (L-7)

Mutleyddmc

: Deckard (L-7)

pieceofpecanpie

: Xdaamno (L-7)

Siveure DtTrikyp

: Alabaska J (L-7)

Smudger

: Siveure DtTrikyp (L-7)

Stryker

: pieceofpecanpie, Cade, Your Troubles Will Cease, Smudger (L-4)

TMTOLBTWNTOF

: Belisarius (L-7)

Not Voting (4): Sakura Hana, Stryker, TMTOLBTWNTOF, Crimml

With 14 alive, it's 8 to lynch.

The deadline is Monday, July 8 in (expired on 2013-07-08 07:00:00).

If you see any errors, please let me know in thread.

Searching for replacements for Stryker, Crimml, and Cade now.

[Jennifer]

Please welcome Yesterday who replaces Stryker effective immediately!

[Yesterday]

Hey everyone, apparently I’m replacing Stryker. Few quick things, I an indeed an alt and while my main may become obvious I’d rather not reveal it; attempting to tweak a few things about my play-style to see if it’s more effective. Second thing is that I have played this setup in the past and followed various games of it, there is strategies that scum consistently use in regards to how they split their numbers and if they double up or not but I’ll go into that in more detail soon. And third thing is that I've skimmed along briefly and got some reads but want to do a big re-read through it all in the next hour or so but relatively confident that Sakura is mafia from what I've read; there's a massive difference between Scum!Sakura and Town!Sakura with Town!Sakura engaged, asking questions, stating reads thoughts and providing content whereas Scum!Sakura moreso just attempts to coast through the game, I'll grab some links when I'm done re-reading but her play here is nothing like what I've seen of her town play and almost a mirror image of her scum play.

[Yesterday]

Alright, I'll start with number analysis - I've found in the past town are much more willing to grab number 1 in an attempt to prevent scum from grabbing the strongest power roles whereas scum are slightly more hesitant at doing it, so yeah I disagree with Sievures argument, see for instance Team Mafia where scum took #6, #6 and #9 and used the double up as an attempt to clear themselves if one of them got lynched and nearly no one picked up on it whereas two townies took #1. That said the playerlist there consists of a much stronger group of players and I don't anticipate that scum have doubled up here or if they have it certainly won't be on #1 meaning that solely from a numbers point of view people who selected #1 are either both town or only one being scum making them suboptimal lynches.

I actually think numbers ranging from #2 - #6 or so is where scum often go because it's not so high that they're unlikely to not get first choice and the odds aren't super high of doubling up despite it happening here on #2 and #4. I also don't think scum would triple up on a number since that's suicidal and I don't think this playerlist would have people ballsy enough to double up since doing so effectively means they're saying they think they're good enough as scum to dodge the lynch and power roles actions. Given that scum have a quick topic to discuss their plan there'd be a consensus behind what their strategy is meaning there'd likely also be more thought process behind a number choice from scum than from town but with scum wanting to refrain from elaborating in their reasoning so it's best if everyone explains flat out why they picked the number they have if they haven't yet.

Will post my reads and thoughts on the thread in about half an hour, almost finished.

[Siveure DtTrikyp]

Lol.

EVERYONE thinks 4 is safe, thus it isn't.

[Siveure DtTrikyp]

Anyway I find the thought on sakura interesting, as her vote on smudger was really weird.

[Yesterday]

Strong Town Reads:

1)

Sievures deep thought about where scum likely are inside the numbers and hunting of finding past games to use as a baseline isn't something I think he'd do as scum at all - it's something he'd keep private and his explanation behind his number choice so openly is massively town, also don't think he attempted to use his high number choice to "clear himself" vocally at all and don't think he got over-defensive, finding his scumhunting as very genuine and would bet a lot on him being town here.

2)

I find this post by YTWC insanely town, I don't think scum would say "can I quote the PM I sent" at all since it'd be a lie given that from what I've seen scum submit their guesses inside a QT (My memory might be wrong on that but that's what I remember from Team Mafia) and his reasoning behind picking #1 is as above what I think town would have rather than scum, explanation again in this post is also town. So yeah similar to Siv would bet he's town for sure.

3)

I've seen Scum!Beli before and he was very lazy and Post 187 looks absolutely nothing like his scum play, the entire reads list and "I'll keep notes and either post in the dead thread or upon a scum flip" reads incredibly incredibly town and genuine. Jesus christ from that post alone I'd bet anything he's town.

Weaker Town Reads: 1)

As much as I detest Mutleys playstyle of essentially being useless as fuck I don't think he's scum here, I very much like his vote on Cade here given that I also think that's a relatively scummy post from Cade and I think he'd be a bit more appeas-ish as scum whereas his argumentative attitude here doesn't feel like scum that's attempting to dodge lynches at all. That said he's not my strongest town-read at all.

2)

I've liked how Piece has attempted to factor into the game the draft alongside with reads; it's how I play and I like his early attempt at making a case not sure how he hasn't stood back and realized how weak and bad it is, think the meta research post in this post reads town though and think he 'top half lower, scum-reads in top half in this post reads as genuine scumhunting. Wouldn't bet he's town like Siv, Beli and YTWC but fairly sure he's town. 3) Alabaskas reasoning behind his number choice and his suspicion of Sievure both read as genuine, his "should we lynch the anti-town player if we think they're potentially scum only" type suggestion is something I've seen much more from town than from scum and I think his "context means everything" ect. type angle reads as town scumhunting rather than scum fabricating thoughts.

Null Reads: 1)

Didn't like Deckards initial posts, seemed very fillery but I actually like a lot of his reasoning behind his reads list in this post and can follow and understand most of it that said the comparison in explanation behind the Mutley scum-read and the Sakura null-read is just ugh.

2)

Not sure on Xdaamno at all, will likely re-read him when I've had some sleep but getting a guttish town vibe from the tone of his posts at the moment but attempt not to hinge too much on my gut. Will get back to you on him when my brains fully functioning though.

3)

I'm biased with Crimml, his post here doesn't add to the game but given that he picked #4 and Sakura picked #4 and I'm fairly confident she's scum I'd say he's more likely town plus I think given that scum would have put in effort of pre-game discussion about number strategy I think the "re-reading" "vanishes never to reappear" is slightly more likely to come from town. 4) I need to re-read Smudgen again when my brains working, my mind changed 3-4 times on him from "He's actively lurking in the sense his discusison is mostly about theory points rather than reads" to "I can understand where he's coming from" and back and forth.

Weaker Scum Reads: 1)

I didn't like this post from Cade, ignores everything else that's happened and reads like opportunistic scum and it's essentially attacking for "Not contributing" something he himself is doing. Decent chance the slot is scum.

2)

Will admit that this might be slightly paranoia-fuelled given that the last game of TMT's I followed this game I had read him as town and was quite shocked when he flipped scum but I think there's a decent chance he's scum this game. I think his reasoning behind his attack on Beli in Post 94 is so weak to the point where I don't buy that he believed it and I don't buy his meta read on Sakura in Post 142 for a second given that I'm pretty damn positive she's meta-scum here and it reads like an attempt to bullshit a reason to town-read a partner, also the fact that his town-read on her is stronger than on Sievure doesn't sit right at all. Don't really see any scum-reads or thoughts of that manner from him at all either, he's minimizing the enemies he makes which makes a lot of sense for scum to do at this point since it allows them to coast through and have less chance of being night-actioned.

Sakura gets her own post where I can point out how obvscum she really is.

Pedit: Sievure if you go with the "Everyone thinks 4 is safe therefore it isn't" line of reasoning to state that scum aren't on 4 then we're going to end up going in circles over ever number; it's at the point where over-thinking will hurt us. Right now the less assumptions we make the better, the only things I'd be confident about is that scum aren't likely doubled up in this playerlist and 1 is more likely town than scum but not assured by any means.

[Yesterday]

Vote: Sakura

I was going to write up a massive post explaining why Sakura is scum but anyone that can't see it from opening up her ISO really needs to learn how to play; She has been active lurking throughout the entire day, she’s avoided stating reads and stances, the only reads she’s made are these

“I'm liking Xdaamo attitude so far.”

which doesn’t lock her into anything really and doesn’t tell us a whole lot about her thought process and

“So basically Beillisarious made a whole post of nothing”

which is a complaint but lack of statement whether she finds it to be a scum-tell or not then jumps on Smuger for something she’s misread.

No analysis, no reads, nothing. The fact that she's garnered zero votes up until this point is just unbelievable, enjoy this readthrough - a town game of hers where there's 226 posts in one day phase and it's all scumhunting and attempting to get reads and progress her thoughts and another town game of hers where there's 111 posts in two day phases, lots of thoughts and reads ect. and her scum game where there's a lot less scumhunting and reads and a lot more coasting and filler posting similar to here. I'd literally eat a hat if she's not scum here (And I don't eat hats).

[Siveure DtTrikyp]

Nah I don't think scum wouldn't pick 4. As I said, EVERYONE thinks its safe, not just town. Twas just filler tbh.

Anyway... I'm going to go into sheep mode and

UNVOTE: smudger
VOTE: sakura

Pedit: the vote on smudger comes after my vote, not after the post in question, so she misread it in a way that she found scummy a full day after she first got back to thread?

[Mutleyddmc]

Hmmm wonder who yesterday is obviously someone I've played with before.

[Yesterday]

Yeah her Smudger vote reads as an opportunistic attempt to jump on an upcoming wagon with bullshit reasoning that she has to back of when pointed out; the fact that she hasn't attempted to scumhunt to find an alternative scum-read essentially is enough proof she's scum.

And Mutley, we haven't played together before but I have followed along many of your games played.

Anyway I'm going to try and get some rest then I'll go back and do a few re-reads of my nullish reads later on.

[Mutleyddmc]

People follow my games? Oh dear god I feel sorry for you!

[Sakura Hana]

Your thoughts are quite interesting, However my activity is more of a playstyle i'm usually more aggresive the less players or more passive the players are, you could have taken a look at my other town game with 12~ players here where i only got like 90~ posts? and i survived until the end of the game unlike the mafia game where i got lynched D1 and had 90 or so posts as well, other than that, i've tried to kept engaged into the game, i do admit the smudger vote may have looked oportunistic because I thought i found something scummy, yet I forgot to read that one quote, which is why I unvoted right after, I got no idea of this number theory everyone's going on about either so i haven't said much about it.

If you're gonna use meta against me at least do your research properly.

[Yesterday]

Even in the game you linked there's a lot of scumhunting and thought process behind your posts, for instance Post #38, Post #49 and so forth. And "No idea on number stuff so haven't said much" is bullshit, people have barely commented on numbers as of late and there's been a lot of scumhunting that doesn't involve numbers, you haven't done any. None. Zilch.

[Mutleyddmc]

Hmmm based on the meta case that is pretty good on Sakura. I prefer cade though. It's a lot gut of course with not much to go on. However it's all evidence pointing towards scum with case that I can't ignore it.

When do we find out who you are yesterday?

[Yesterday]

Cades going to be replaced and I'll be able to get a read on his replacement making him a suboptimal lynch not to mention that Sakura is incredibly obvious scum and that if we don't lynch her today it'll likely be a repeat of past games where I'll just get nightkilled and watch her cruise through the game with the "Oh scum wouldn't shoot someone who FoS"s" them stupid type WIFOM, literally ISO'ing her and then reading her meta should prove she's scum.

And you'll find out who I am post-game I suppose or probably when I get shot in the dead QT.

[Mutleyddmc]

I agree you meta evidence is very compelling. I can't lynch someone solely on meta. As for me personally meta is useless. I play similar every game and it's all dependant on my mood for the day on how I play. Therefore I can't lynch based solely on it.

[Yesterday]

It's not "solely" on meta though; it's also to do with the fact that she's been filler posting, actively lurking and hasn't attempted to scumhunt, stated zero scum-reads, no real town-reads and defence was "Well your meta isn't fully accurate!". That's not just meta-tells that's flat out scum-tells.

[Sakura Hana]

Well I really can't defend much against that, it is true that i've barely done any scumhunting this game, oh well, if you ask me the only semi-suspicious person i got is Bellisarious, but mostly because his whole post of nothing that he made, however i did say i would put that aside, so either i sux at finding scum or scum this game is too good at hiding in between town.

[Xdaamno]

I did a read of Sakura yesterday and was intrigued by the things Yesterday mentions now - without a meta I was having trouble distinguishing between her being scum or pugnacious town.

Very limited access until Friday.