Open 506: Pick Your Power X/Y, Game Over

[TMTOLBTWNTOF]

If someone wants a massclaim, is there something called popcorn claiming?

I'm still new, but I think it might be good to catch counterclaims, especially in a PYP

[Siveure DtTrikyp]

Yeah, popcorn claiming is the scummiest player claims first, then after that the person who just claimed picks the next person.

My suggestion to catch counterclaims is everyone claims partially - first whether you're a vt or a PR, then after everyone does this we claim the full roles (or what you went for if VT). This can cause scum to back themselves into a corner, potentially, if they fakeclaim, so they have to realclaim probably.

[Elyse]

There's no need for massclaim today.

Please I don't want to start this argument. (Arc would know)

[Mutleyddmc]

Elyse loves mass claiming!

[ArcAngel9]

still catch up people..hang on a bitt

[Mutleyddmc]

Deckard is scum AA, confirmed scum lets get him

[Yesterday]

Hey everyone. Been away during the weekend; glad to see that I'm still alive but I have a gripe about something - will go into it in detail soon.

Going to catch up now.

[Yesterday]

Alright; please don't skim but actually read the following paragraphs deeply because they're important.

Mass-claim isn't actually that terrible of an idea and had vig not shot last night I'd probably have been backing it 100%. I think we can get minimum three or so clears from a mass-claim as well as help piece together a few things that are troubling me massively at the moment. That said there's a better way around it and that's not a mass claim but those specific roles claiming since while it may give scum potential clearages / obvtown to shoot they're generally weaker roles and doing so allows stronger roles to stay alive and if scum want to shoot and aim for stronger roles they risk potentially hitting VT's and fucking themselves over due to it.

With a scum lynch D1 scum would not waste their extra vig shot on Sakura therefore whoever has the back-up role is essentially 100% town (You can argue they did so to be town-read but that also means they'd be shooting a claimed VT which is massively suboptimal and a risk scum wouldn't take). Also since backup took a 1-shot vig and used it they're essentially a roled-VT meaning scum have no real need to kill them and them having claimed makes PoE'ing scum easier. So unless someone thinks that I'm looking at this completely incorrectly the universal backup should claim. I also don't think scum would have bothered to waste a potential draft pick on neighbourizer/fruit vendor and that role is relatively low-powered so them also claiming isn't a bad idea at all.

Here's what I know for a fact: Either scum won doctor/roleblocker or tracker/jailkeeper or an idiot townie won jailkeeper. Since if scum won doctor/roleblocker I don't think they'd have roleblocked me but instead just flat out shot me given no-risk of there being a doctor in the setup that leaves the most likely explanations being that the jailkeeper was on me last night and it makes little sense for a town jailkeeper to be on me when I blatantly stated that I was a role that needed to be allowed to do it's usages meaning what the most likely situation here is that scum won jailkeeper. If I'm wrong and an idiot townie fucked up and took jailkeeper and used it on me they need to fess up otherwise anyone who tried taking jailkeeper/tracker need to claim since we'd know that it would have been taken above them and therefore know which part of the playerlist most likely has scum. Also given that Deckard was about half-way down the draft order and took 1-shot vig I think there's a decent shot of a scum being above him (Scums highest draft would likely have risked going for something potentially stronger).

---

Anyway on to flat out reads. I'd still bet the world that Siveure, Mutley and YTWC are town (The case of interactions with Deckard-YTWC is awful; the entire thing actually strengthens my town-read on him and it's not what I consider to be typical partner interaction). TMT sadly has a very high chance of being town given that he's also the same number as Deckard and I don't think newbie-scum would double-up; I wouldn't say he's 100% town but right now he's not for lynching. I still like Alabaska for town (I don't think his attempt to move it back to Sakura over Decklan at the end there is a scum-tell, I mean I can understand the logic behind thinking that way just don't agree with it; at that point I think it was obvious Decklan was getting lynched and think he'd have bussed as scum and not defended partner - also have liked majority of his other posts). Still think Elyse is town but she's due for a re-read (Her catch-up post matched me thought process well and read town but I think she's decreased in content since)* and Xdaamno and PPP I want to sit down

again

and go over while checking their interactions with Decklan but PPP promised a lot of content and want to see that first.

The case against Smudger isn't half bad; Deckards read on him in Post 159 should be scum for those reasons but he's still listed as null. I also don't think Smudger responded to being accused of back-tracking and that's the sort of thing I think he'd respond towards and one thing I've noticed is scum don't deeply read into their partners posts since they don't need to convince them therefore don't respond to partners that much. Smudgers read on Deckard in Post 201 is weird too and his vote on Smudger in Post 368 is about at the time that I'd expect scum to buss - plus Deckard likely wouldn't have self-hammered if he didn't have a partner voting for him; he'd have let his partner hammer him to grab town-cred so scum are likely in the late voters. Also think him being the top placement and not taking the role I have is incredibly weird as town since it's the role I'd have instantly took as #1 and I think Beli dying as #2 while Smudger was #1 and I had insisted on being doc'ed as #3 points towards Smudger being scum; also can potentially see him as being the person that took JK/Tracker or Doc/RB and blocked me. Still think the Cade slot has a decent chance of being scum, hated his only post and interaction-wise with Deckard he fits as a partner. Waiting for AA to fully catch up to get a decent read on that slot though; and the "yeah almost caught up" needs to end and instead we need actual content; even if it's in parts.

[Siveure DtTrikyp]

Yesterday, you're a cop aren't you?

I think a jailkeeper is like the only half-decent role that both belisarius and smudger could have gone for. I don't see what else could have overlapped. SO yeah

UNVOTE: alabaska J
VOTE: smudger

Neighbourizer is very town, but I don't really think it's worth it for them to claim. It's actually pretty strong in the right hands. I'm not 100% sure those hands exist in this playerlist, but they should probably keep it quiet nonetheless.

[Yesterday]

Actually the more I think about it the more the #1 draft pick looks like scum.

Town wouldn't want a Night 3 vig-shot/Vengeful, 1-shot commuter/1-shot watcher or Neighbourizer/Fruit Vendor so badly they'd pick first draft on it and Beli wouldn't double up going one of these second meaning that Smudger can't have one of those roles. I have cop (Which I think is fairly obvious) meaning he doesn't have that and 1-shot vig Deckard had which only leaves Doctor/Roleblocker, Universal Backup/Rolecop and Jailer/Tracker. Picking roleblocker as town is stupid and me being roleblocked means if roleblocker was taken he's scum, universal backup is a weak role and dumb to take first and since we know that was taken over rolecop safe to say that he doesn't have it and jailer/tracker in a situation where again I was roleblocked points towards scum having it.

Vote: Smugen

Edit: Cut by Siv saying basically the exact same thing, awesome that I'm not the only one on this wavelength.

[Yesterday]

Neighbourizer is very town, but I don't really think it's worth it for them to claim. It's actually pretty strong in the right hands. I'm not 100% sure those hands exist in this playerlist, but they should probably keep it quiet nonetheless.

Way I see this is; Neighourizer is obvtown given that scum have daytalk and thus don't need a QT and therefore would use their three picks on roles that hold some real value towards them. Scum wouldn't shoot a claimed neighbourizer since they'll be more focused about either hunting for doc (Assuming they don't have it) or shooting me (If they do have it) meaning that neighbourizer claiming will be essentially giving us a near IC in the thread that'll be alive for a while to come. If you add that to the amount of obvtown players we have and whoever claims backup then we're in a really really good PoE position.

[Siveure DtTrikyp]

I'm trying to find a way to say this that only the neighbourizer will get, but unfortunately I can't think of one other than saying it in the QT.

Put me in the neighbourhood guys? Unless you really know what you're doing.

If smudger is actually JK scum we've all but won this after his lynch.

[Mutleyddmc]

why do you want to be in the neighbour hood so bad?

anyway smudger was in my thoughts yesterday i said he had an outside chance. plus the fact he isnt dead speaks hugely surely? scum knew you were gunna be safe most likely, so why not take out the 1 pick

so yer basically i just came in to say what you guys said

VOTE: smudger

[Siveure DtTrikyp]

I'm trying to find a way to say this that only the neighbourizer will get, but unfortunately I can't think of one other than saying it in the QT.

This.

I've something I want to say to the neighbourizer without revealing it to the scum and that's the only way i can think of doing it reliably.

[Mutleyddmc]

oh ok.

[Siveure DtTrikyp]

It's not incredibly important, so we don't really need to go with it if you really want someone else in there, and my presence in the neighbourhood can actually negate it somewhat, especially if I'm the only one.

[Mutleyddmc]

I don't really know how it will but I'm being stupid right now and don't want you to say if there is a good reason

[Yesterday]

Siveure, I still think that neighbourizer outright claiming here alongside with backup gives us a lot more clarity and makes process of elimination incredibly easy but it's not worth arguing about it massively; at this point it's really about Smudgen claiming and explaining why he took whatever he took (And also JK claiming if they're town and fucked up by jailing me) as well as a lot of inactives coming in and stating their thoughts.

Speaking of which: YTWC, as much as I'm pretty sure you're town you posting elsewhere and not sharing thoughts and reads with us is shitty. Actually help please.

[Mutleyddmc]

Ok I think the neighbourizer should claim.

[Your Troubles Will Cease]

I have useful information if we massclaim.

I can buy into the case on Smudger given what I know.

If we DO massclaim, I'd rather do it from the bottom of the draft upwards, and in two stages - PR or not, then either the PR or bid.

[Mutleyddmc]

I like that idea. The bid gives us a load of info.

[Yesterday]

I'd much rather just start by Smugen posting claiming and explaining his actions and choices; think if he's scum he'll get caught from it and think if he's town we'll be able to catch a scum from it via hunting down who has the roleblocker / jailkeeper role.

[Mutleyddmc]

Yer I want top down claiming considering cop has already claimed

[Siveure DtTrikyp]

I think popcorning it is a better idea.

[Yesterday]

Just start with Smudger claiming and explaining then we'll work out the claiming system after that.

We've got ages (13 days) so no need to rush the rest of the claims.