Open 506: Pick Your Power X/Y, Game Over

[Siveure DtTrikyp]

I mean, sure top down is okay, but do you really want me and ytwc, who are two of the townier players, claiming second and third?

[Mutleyddmc]

Yer why not.

[Your Troubles Will Cease]

Yer why not.

dude's got a point.

[Siveure DtTrikyp]

Actually, if we're agreed smudger is probably scum we will lose say one role tonight, and i think it's good to go with that before massclaim rather than after.

Massclaim isn't going to change whether we lynch smudger or not, right?

[pieceofpecanpie]

Urghhh, I don't like the weight of expectation, but nevertheless I'll give it a shot.

why we shouldn't massclaim
My impressions of claiming in this set-up is that whatever advantage town gains, scum gain at least double. Where are scum likely to throw their kills? Near the top of the draft pool of course. Where are the town power roles? Near the top of the draft pool. Who already knows who is scum and not-scum near the top of the draft pool? Exactly. Why give them the best signpost of which town got a role and who missed out? Look at Belisarius' death, it may or may not be baiting a mislynch onto Smudger, but it is most definitely scum exercising their best odds at eliminating town PRs.

As a quick secondary point, it is also ridiculously easy for scum to fakeclaim. Oh and someone claiming a PR shouldn't save them from a lynch, but if anything provide extra incentive to lynch them, if the player is scummy enough to put votes onto then they'd be an even bigger threat with a PR. Whatever strength town gains from PRs, scum gains equal if not greater strength.

what we should do instead
Town's greatest weapon is the lynch. And talk leading up to and around a lynch. We shouldn't be reliant on PRs in this set-up as we don't know what we've got and little ability to coordinate powers. We

should

be lynching scummy players from

near the top

of the order. At least for today, and probably tomorrow. That's our weapon for every coming lynch. Whether they flip town or scum, if they're a PR it's good information, if they're not then it's still relevant information and then we can create some stronger speculation, PoE and standard scumhunting. If we hit a scum PR then we've accomplished something greater than the loss of a town PR.

I'm opening this train of thought up to anyone to give commentary, discussion, etc. on it. I think it's much more fruitful to look at what information we have currently, rather then set-up a claiming session. We should be able to find a satisfactory lynch from what we've already got.

a bit on Deckard
I've got a little bit down, but most of this is off the cuff and I don't want to dwell too much on anyone else previous points so there may be some overlap.

post 14 - an early note on Stryker caught my attention and really had me highlighting Stryker's entire ISO later on. The case I made ended up weak and premature, but not without some degree of merit. However, I believe Deckard and Stryker's interactions strongly indicate they aren't of the same alignment. Although worth noting that if I was reading Yesterday independently of that I'd reach the same conclusion.

post 113 - passive commentary from Deckard, really should have picked up on it. He's directing suspicion onto players without voting. I believe the way he ends this post bares his own self-conscious feeling that led to his next one being an attempt at a reads list.<sup>1

1</sup>

"[...] shows the lack of Stryker's posts. Posting like that is either stupid or scummy, or maybe both."

post 159 - the empty reads list. Players picked up on it at the time - or at least Siv after a quick check - and although I noticed it I really didn't bring it up. I regret doing that and regret losing the amount of input I wanted to put towards the game at this point. Interesting to note Belisarius' questionable technique still did pick up on this post by Deckard. On the other hand his technique completely fails to see the merit in it. Deckard's tone may have been consistent and appearing helpful up until this point (although crucially he was still passive about voting), but if you take this post of empty reads on it's own merits, then it's the best scumcase against Deckard you're going to get.

post 291 - a nice bit of WIFOM on Sakura. I didn't think too much of Deckard's interaction with Sakura or vice versa, the order in his reads list a red herring, but not conclusive. Sakura's ISO itself is her biggest detriment, it has some very questionable posts and is a good enough reason to warrant a vig shot.


That'll do me for now. There's a follow up post I'm putting together from here, but it'll take a bit longer. Then there's sleep and staying involved in the discussion in the meantime. Namely trying to convince people not to claim.

[Mutleyddmc]

Actually, if we're agreed smudger is probably scum we will lose say one role tonight, and i think it's good to go with that before massclaim rather than after.

Massclaim isn't going to change whether we lynch smudger or not, right?

Might do

[Yesterday]

PPP; Here's why I think claiming (If not mass at least some form) is good: I was roleblocked or jailed last night. Town wouldn't jail a claimed investigative role. That means we know for a fact (Barring some real stupidity) that scum have either roleblocker or jailer. Claiming can work out who has that. I'll give you an example. Lets say draft spot #4 says they tried to go for roleblocker/doctor but got VT meaning it was prior taken and no one of #3, #2 or #1 claimed roleblocker that means we know that one of #1, #2, #3, #4 is scum. Follow the logic there? + Add to that the neighbourizer and backup role claims are two clears essentially which means add them to Siv/YTWC/Mutley obvtown pile (Assuming there's no double up's) and we might have 5 or so obvtown/clears making this the easiest PoE game there is.

[Yesterday]

Siv, I'm going to bed in a few minutes. Just don't start a mass-claim or claimage system until Smudger has claimed and I've got a chance to see it.

[Mutleyddmc]

Yer all of pecans points would make me not wanna mass claim. But after hitting scum and yesterday being jailed/roleblocked this is probably a good time to mass claim.

[Siveure DtTrikyp]

Yeah, I don't want massclaim tbh. We have one scum down, but we have another very probable scum. I think the loss of whoever scum shoot tonight means rather little if they're shooting blind.

[Mutleyddmc]

Tbf in this game surely scum knows that the PRs are likely to be near the top anyway. So yer mass claim looks better everytime I think about it

[pieceofpecanpie]

@Yesterday

I need more time to consider point you're making from massclaiming. It's still bloody dangerous and we could even comfortably PoE it down to a similar number with the info we have right now. Or at least that's the impression I get, but notes must be scribbled on this.

[pieceofpecanpie]

Tbf in this game surely scum knows that the PRs are likely to be near the top anyway. So yer mass claim looks better everytime I think about it

Is that why scum killed Belisarius??? Seriously, think about it, do you think they would've chosen him if there

had been

a massclaim already?

[Siveure DtTrikyp]

Sure, but which PRs? After you get to about halfway down it's a tossup as to who gets the last few prs, and maybe a big one is low.

Losing a 1-shot watcher is way less than losing a cop.

Pedit: Pecan gets it.

[Mutleyddmc]

True. But still mass claim!

[Yesterday]

@Yesterday

I need more time to consider point you're making from massclaiming. It's still bloody dangerous and we could even comfortably PoE it down to a similar number with the info we have right now. Or at least that's the impression I get, but notes must be scribbled on this.

It's not necessarily mass-claiming. Right now we're just starting with Smudger claiming with his actions and others claiming if it means confirming his action as fake. Given the strength of the case on Smudger I'd imagine you understand the advantage of him claiming here. Any more than that we can work out later.

[Mutleyddmc]

Mass claim! Ill start I'm cop.......

[Yesterday]

Trollings really not needed Mutley. Just wait for Smudgen. Also PPP's recent posts have read extremely town, think his stance on the "no claiming" comes much more from a town mindset then a scum one; think scum would just play-along and not vocally disagree. I'd probably add him to the 'supertown' pile (Also him initially voting Smudgen with really decent reasoning points towards PPP being very town alone if Smudgen is indeed scum anyway).

Going to sleep now. Catch you all later.

[Jennifer]

Vote Count 2.1

Smudger

: pieceofpecanpie, Siveure DtTrikyp, Yesterday, Mutleyddmc (L-2)

Not Voting (7): Alabaska J, ArcAngel9, Elyse, Smudger, TMTOLBTWNTOF, Xdaamno, Your Troubles Will Cease

With 11 alive, it's 6 to lynch.

The deadline is Friday, July 19 in

(expired on 2013-07-19 12:00:00)

.

If you see any errors, please let me know in thread.

Mod is V/LA until Monday, July 8.

just realized i used bold red in that last post. i'll refrain from bolding the colors from now on. sorry about that jennifer

Thanks, but it's okay to use in that context. I think in future games I will choose a different mod color for this reason.

[Alabaska J]

great posts yesterday.

the vote is for more pressure on smudger.

pedit: he's already at L-2. no need to vote. however, i don't like massclaiming just yet for the reasons ppp posted. if what you are saying is true, yesterday, and because bel is vanilla, smudger most certainly looks like scum here. i think cop would be first pick, but scum wouldn't need it, and you could make the argument for jailbreaker. i don't think we need to massclaim today (ppp makes a great point about bel's death) but i would like to hear a smudger claim for sure

[Elyse]

Basically this^^^

I don't really have much to add. Smudger needs to claim.

My scum pool is {Smudger, ArcAngel, Xdaamno} with {Alabaska, Letters, PPP} as outside possibilites.

[Smudger]

Hello everyone, seems I am lynch candidate number still, I also see the discussion about claiming etc and see that Yesterday has claimed Cop.. which is interesting to be honest because last night I was blocked/prevented while trying to investigate him. Whether you believe that or not seems immaterial at this point in time as it would appear you have mostly made your minds up. It seemed to me that the slot needed to be looked at considering that the previous incumbent had taken it close to being lynched, I was also probably like many of you, reading Yesterdays inputs and thinking, "town, has to be town", but then I am conscious that he would appear to be an experienced player with a track record, his opening post on taking over says as much, and the intimation that his playing style is well known was something that made me stop and think. therefore I tried to investigate him as it seemed too good to be true.

[Yesterday]

Smudger; What are you claiming?

[Smudger]

what do you think I am claiming Yesterday, is it that difficult?

[Yesterday]

I'm guessing tracker? But I want a blatant statement from you of it.