I've been a strong advocate for the last few years now that--at least in the early days--it's not the scummiest player who's lynched, but the least-charismatic player.
They CAN be one and the same, but very often are not, and the reasoning actually makes a lot of sense. In the early day phases, the town doesn't have much to work off of. They don't have concrete information. They have theories and they have instincts, and therein lies the reason why it's the least-charismatic player lynched:
Because a charismatic player can generally address the concerns of both theories and evidence, in a way which sways opinion away from their lynch, regardless of whether the theory is right or wrong.
Less-charismatic players, therefore, fall under the spotlight, because they don't present themselves as favorably. I use that word, "present", intentionally, and a recent game I IC'd which allowed me a realization is why. To quote the relevant post:
In post 831, mastin2 wrote:I can sum up my lessons to most of the town in a single word: presentation.
I would recommend that to all of you, in various different ways; one of the main reasons this game was as close as it was is because most of the town players didn't present themselves as well as they needed to, whereas both Jason and I
[the scumteam for the game]
have had a
lot
of experience presenting ourselves favorably as both alignments. You don't want to structure yourself so much that your posts look artificial and hollow (that's a quick way to the noose), but you want to make sure that both you AND your reads are looked at favorably.
Basically, one of the main things is talking to specific players and working with them, coordinating not only reads, but also reasons. When you think you have something, present it to your peers and explain why you think it might be something, and evaluate off of their feedback how valid it is. You'll note that one of the main elements of my scum play throughout the entirety of this game is that I was talking with others and trying to work with them--as scum, this is to manipulate them so that they look favorably upon me. But as town, this is just as important a skill to master, because the town is the majority. You need other town players to obtain a lynch. Even if your reads are dead-on, they're worthless if you can't convince your fellow townies that you're right.
There's generally a reason I use phrases like "work with me, here" and the like, and I highly discourage players from antagonizing one another: because the town as a whole works best by working together, and to do so, they need to get that common ground. They need to hold an understanding of one another, and that's a key element of mafia games. (Also a huge reason why meta is so prevalent in the current site meta.) You need to be able to see where a player comes from, and explain where you come from, and be able to get towards a common ground. Mafia is a team game, and you can't fly solo. Not as town, and not even as scum. (It's easier as scum, but still inadvisable.) Both sides need to work as a coherent unit in order to win against the other.
If there's one lesson of mine that I'd value more than any other, it'd be that--to recognize that there's a grander element of mafia that extends beyond just yourself, and that you need to think of others.
My statement of it being the least-charismatic player would more accurately be defined as the player who least presented themselves favorably.
At first, it may
like a skill that benefits scum more than town, but it's a VITAL skill to master as both alignments, for the reasons I touched upon: because mafia, as a team game, extends beyond just yourself.
Many players on this site have those issues with presentation, so I tried to develop some tips. Newbie or veteran, this is something I'd highly recommend reading, because it not only talks about how to dodge (mis)lynches, but also how to obtain your choice in lynch, a problem far too many people have.
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Talk to the players, not at them.
It's a subtle, but vital, difference. Talking TO a player is working with them, it's trying to appeal specifically at them. Talking AT a player is talking which just so happens to be addressed to a player, but isn't really meant for them.
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Keep calm and rational.
Yes, you'll get emotional, and often have quite justified reasons for shouting and screaming at players. But the site meta is slowly moving away from tolerating strongarm tactics (this is a good thing!) and is lowering their acceptance of AtE, so this tactic is becoming increasingly ineffective. Instead, take deep breaths, calm down, and come back when you can present a coherent argument. Use emphasis when necessary, and not at all times, and you'll be able to highlight key points in your argument much more effectively.
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Display confidence, not arrogance; display humbleness, not doubt.
It's a fine line to walk, but not one you want to cross. You need to present yourself with energy to tell others you're right, but you need to be careful to not let them think you're arrogantly assuming you can't be wrong; that's a permanent one-way ticket to being ignored. It also goes the other way--you shouldn't blow up your reputation greater than it actually is. Not only will it have meta consequences (as expectations of you become what you bragged about), but it'll also make it so that people are less-likely to believe your reads are grounded in reality.
So, when it comes to your capabilities, be realistic about what you have to offer. You DO have to watch out for taking this humbleness too far, though. You don't want your reads to be seen as worthless; you want them to hold value.
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Don't antagonize players!
Town, scum, doesn't matter. It's a stupid idea.
A common instance of this is saying to a player, "I don't need to address you, you're scum!" Well, what happens if you later change your mind about them and think them to be town? Precisely; they've (understandably) lost their confidence in you, meaning that your newer (and probably more accurate) reads are held in doubt because of a stupid mistake of arrogantly antagonizing a player.
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The town is made up of a majority.
So talk to multiple players. Don't talk to them in generalities; in my experience, that's not very convincing. Talk specifically to each and every single player. I realize that in a larger game, that's more of an effort, but it works, and it works damn-well, especially if you target other key players. (For instance, the player spearheading your lynch, or the player in strongest opposition to the wagon you're pressing, or people you think will be likely to join you on your latest endeavor.)
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Address other players.
The opposite of the above--just as you need to talk to every player about your own reads, you also need to talk to every player about their read on you. Failure to do so can create an enemy where an ally is desperately needed.
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Find a common ground.
I dislike using the term "compromise", because that often doesn't work well, at least, not for a town player. I think a better term is Negotiate. When talking to another player, see what you have in common with one another, and if you can get them to your side. You need to negotiate with them so that you're working together, as a team. If you're desperate, I call this bartering (e.g., "when I flip town, lynch X"), in that you know you can't get what you want today, but can set the stage for future days. But note that bartering IS a move of desperation (most players ignore the lynched, and only a minority listen to nightkilled players because NKA is written off as wifom); when used outside of desperation, it's likely to be seen as "setting up (mis)lynches". Instead, try to invoke negotiation early (when rational), rather than bargaining later (when desperate).
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Admit that you could be wrong.
Nobody's a scumhunting god; this ties into the humble/arrogance, ties into the common ground, ties into don't antagonize, basically, everything. You can be wrong, so you have to work with others to show why you think you're right.
* Related,
Keep an open mind.
Accept that there will be alternative viewpoints, and you'll be in a much stronger position, as you're able to better work with them.
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Tell the truth!
If you misremember, don't try to invent an explanation. Come clean, and admit you were wrong. It'll be far more consistent in the long-run, because if you try to invent reasoning, your inventions build up one after another and begin to contradict themselves quite heavily later-on. This goes back to the humble/arrogant tip above.
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Keep things clear.
This is a HUGE thing. If you're constantly walling or constantly spamming, chances are astronomically high that people are skimming what you're saying, if not flat-out skipping it. That's bad. You can't change them, but you CAN change yourself. Succinct posts will do you wonders; keep things as short and coherent as possible.
Even stream-of-consciousness posting gains value with a minor editorial touch, making it easier to follow your thought process and making it easier to see where you are coming from.
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Don't lose focus, don't over-focus.
Letting yourself get distracted can help prevent others from considering you credible. The opposite is just as true, if not more; we call it confirmation bias/tunnel vision. The town is made up of a lot of players, and you shouldn't spend too much or too little time on any specific group of them; you should be addressing all of them equally.
Is this guide going to be everything you need? No, it's just some general tips. These aren't iron-cast rules; I chose the term guidelines for a reason. I can't guarantee that following these will make you unlynchable (as even a charismatic guy like myself gets lynched, even early-on). It WILL help to reduce your rate of being lynched, though, because a lot of these problems are things I see in far too many players these days.
It's a large problem the site as a whole has, and this guide is meant as a way to minimize it.