Newbie 1390 -- Game Over

[TheIrishPope]

I was hoping you'd bring that up. That raised my suspicion even more. Scum could have even guessed which role was active through rolefishing. 780 confirms this. Derivan might seem confirmed Town to you, but to me, he is nothing.

[goodmorning]

Not likely, best claimed PR but not what type so unless you'd like to point out where you think Deri would have seen that possibility or make the Doc claim I'm going to continue assuming that Deri is indeed a PR, much as I'd like him not to be.

[ryhx]

Two wagons hath appeared...

tip: Don't think its a scumslip, seems pretty obvious it was a ~reaction test~ of sorts. Same with his other votes, seems to be at least partially a fish for reactions, but I don't see it as an alignment tell. Would like to see what he makes of it first.

guyett: just from day 2, he's been wifoming the nk pretty hard and has been flipping his votes pretty hard trying to get a lynch going. The way he unvoted klick/tip after the momentum died is pretty suspect. Combined with my suspicions from day 1 + drunkhammergate, he's still my first pick for lynch.

@tip: how could derivan have guessed? I didn't see any hints from best. Do you think he's more likely lying or not lying

Fake edit: I keep typing in the quick reply box but this site keeps logging me out before I post and trashing my reply...WHYYYYY!!

[JasonWazza]

Ryhx, tick the box that auto-logs you in, if it's a public computer just log off after (this keeps you from being logged off and even if a public computer works to not log you in automatically like it says)

@Goodmorning: You realize how stupid your being right?

Here's the possible PR setups GIVEN the now known Tracker;
Town 1-shot Bulletproof, Mafia Goon, Town Tracker
Mafia Goon, Town Doctor, Town Tracker

Given this the Mafia is made up of 2 goons, meaning all possible setups are given here;
Mafia Goon, Town 1-shot Bulletproof, Town Tracker
Mafia Goon, Town Doctor, Town Tracker
Mafia Goon, Town Cop, Vanilla Townie
Mafia Goon, Vanilla Townie, Town Jailkeeper

Given these 4 setups, what would you want in a fake claim?
Not be provable to be false, IF the situation occurs that you claimed in a good spot.
Force a PR to Counter Claim you in the case that you claim bad.

I would personally, Fake Claim a BP if i was scum for one good reason.
1/2 chance, that there's a tracker.
If i'm wrong in a claim, i pull out any of the following into claiming {Cop, Doctor, Jailkeeper}

THERE IS NO ACTUAL LOSS GIVEN THE SCUMS KNOWLEDGE TO CLAIM A BULLETPROOF.

[Derivan]

I would personally, Fake Claim a BP if i was scum for one good reason.
1/2 chance, that there's a tracker.
If i'm wrong in a claim, i pull out any of the following into claiming {Cop, Doctor, Jailkeeper}

THERE IS NO ACTUAL LOSS GIVEN THE SCUMS KNOWLEDGE TO CLAIM A BULLETPROOF.

JW your math here is atrocious. The setup is a 3x3 matrix which gives us 6 possible outcomes. I claimed BP prior to best being revealed as TT. Therefor:

The probability of successfully guessed the setup is less than 17%
The probability of successfully guessing a setup in which best flips TT is a little over 33%

For someone pushing a policy lynch after the "drunk" hammer this is a very interesting conclusion from you.

Now it would be an interesting play for the town doctor to claim BP after the TT or TJ flipped since it would dissuade the mafia from NK'ing.

I was hoping you'd bring that up. That raised my suspicion even more. Scum could have even guessed which role was active through rolefishing. 780 confirms this. Derivan might seem confirmed Town to you, but to me, he is nothing.

@TIP
And you are still at L-1 posting three line filler posts. Quit stalling and post content.

[JasonWazza]

I would personally, Fake Claim a BP if i was scum for one good reason.
1/2 chance, that there's a tracker.
If i'm wrong in a claim, i pull out any of the following into claiming {Cop, Doctor, Jailkeeper}

THERE IS NO ACTUAL LOSS GIVEN THE SCUMS KNOWLEDGE TO CLAIM A BULLETPROOF.

JW your math here is atrocious. The setup is a 3x3 matrix which gives us 6 possible outcomes. I claimed BP prior to best being revealed as TT. Therefor:

The probability of successfully guessed the setup is less than 17%
The probability of successfully guessing a setup in which best flips TT is a little over 33%

For someone pushing a policy lynch after the "drunk" hammer this is a very interesting conclusion from you.

Now it would be an interesting play for the town doctor to claim BP after the TT or TJ flipped since it would dissuade the mafia from NK'ing.

Wrong

I am calling you scum, yes it's a 3x3 matrix BUT 2 setups have a Mafia Roleblocker, so we can rule them out as there is no possiblity of a Roleblocker in a Tracker setup.

So again my math is fine.

[Guyett]

He's talking about it from a scum point of view when you cam remove the Mafia pr as they know both are just goons.

[JasonWazza]

You know all about that don't you Guyett

[Guyett]

No its simple maths... Which i did in college for a while.

[Guyett]

Two wagons hath appeared...

tip: Don't think its a scumslip, seems pretty obvious it was a ~reaction test~ of sorts. Same with his other votes, seems to be at least partially a fish for reactions, but I don't see it as an alignment tell. Would like to see what he makes of it first.

guyett: just from day 2, he's been wifoming the nk pretty hard and has been flipping his votes pretty hard trying to get a lynch going. The way he unvoted klick/tip after the momentum died is pretty suspect. Combined with my suspicions from day 1 + drunkhammergate, he's still my first pick for lynch.

@tip: how could derivan have guessed? I didn't see any hints from best. Do you think he's more likely lying or not lying

Fake edit: I keep typing in the quick reply box but this site keeps logging me out before I post and trashing my reply...WHYYYYY!!

then why haven't you voted for me yet if you're sure I'm scum?

[ryhx]

Because I still have 21 hours to lynch you

[Guyett]

or I could just do it myself to save you the time? there is nothing I can do to convince some of you that I am town except to flip town when I die. therefore waiting is a waste of time. when I'm gone look at TIP and gar please.

[TheGarantula]

If I'm suddenly a top suspect, why haven't you voted me? Am I scum now because I provided the case you asked for?

[TheIrishPope]

ryhx, it's best to end it now. Just vote for either me or Guy, to spare others the time.
Regarding Derivan, I'm saying there is always that possibility. He is not confirmed

in any way

. I could claim BP right now and create a clusterfuck, so he is not confirmed.

[Guyett]

the problem with claiming now is not that you could be BP or cop... its more that if you are a PR why have you not worked towards outing Deri as being false? He claimed something like 2 weeks ago!!! surely if he has false claimed the real PR won't have let that slide...

[TheIrishPope]

For the last time, I am not claiming any PR.

[Guyett]

no that wasn't at you, that was at anyone thinking of claiming now or calling bullshit at deri's claim...
Also I know you don't have a PR... Mafia Goon isn't a PR

[TheIrishPope]

But I'm a Mafia Roleblocker, Guy. What are you talking about?

[JasonWazza]

Guyett, your trying to get someone to claim, THERE IS NO ACTUAL USE TO THE CLAIM AT THIS POINT

And furthermore, continually calling bullshit on his claim, makes it look like that person is a PR.

QUIT TRYING TO ROLEFISH OUT OUR DOCTOR/BULLETPROOF

[TheIrishPope]

Fucking finally. Jason, I like you. I hope no one kills you.

[ryhx]

Well, people are still talking, also I wanted to see a readlist out of tip. Tip, are you gonna provide one?

[TheIrishPope]

Sure, doing it now

[TheIrishPope]

Guyett: Scum. This guy started throwing shit at me the second I raised suspicion on his slot.
ryhx: Town. Newbscum would have hammered someone and tried to escape it next day. He is playing logically.
Derivan: Null. HIS CLAIM MEANS NOTHING. Which begs the question: why would a BP claim D1?
TheGarantula: Null. Had a decent case on him when he had to Town it up for himself.
JasonWazza: I don't want to be too quick to call him Town, but he is Null-leaning Town right now.
TheIrishPope: Me!
goodmorning: Wait, who's goodmorning?

[Guyett]

Guyett, your trying to get someone to claim, THERE IS NO ACTUAL USE TO THE CLAIM AT THIS POINT

And furthermore, continually calling bullshit on his claim, makes it look like that person is a PR.

QUIT TRYING TO ROLEFISH OUT OUR DOCTOR/BULLETPROOF

I'm actually advising people not to claim at this point as I'd see them as scum straight away. But a claim at this point could be useful as it could take out a mafia rather than mislynch again.
I don't quite get your second statement
furthermore I've had a look at your play compared to recent/current games (especially ones that I've played with you in) and I'm getting more and more convinced that you are town who has anger issues and likes to shout people down.

[ryhx]

Sweet, thanks.

And furthermore, continually calling bullshit on his claim, makes it look like that person is a PR.

Wait, I don't get this. Makes who look like a PR? Guyett? TIP? Derivan?

But unless someone counter claims, Deri is believable. If someone counter-claims, well at this late stage I'll probably still believe Deri over a counter claimer. It would be some lucky odds for Deri to have guessed right.