Newbie 1390 -- Game Over

[goodmorning]

No intent to hammer. Ryhx has stated it on you in a roundabout way.

[TheIrishPope]

Just playing devil's advocate here, but:
Guy: AA9 does that too, are you suggesting that OMGUS is always a scumtell?
ryhx: Are you saying that newbscum couldn't possibly be more savvy than that? Besides, he's not

that

new.
Deri: He would claim because he was at risk of hammer. I mean, all the reasons he could be fakeclaiming are fine and dandy, I just think we ought to wait til LyLo or a cc at least.
Gar: What I'd like to know is how you even found him scummy in the first place.
Jason: Why don't you want to be "too quick to call him town" and what is "too quick"?
TIP: YOU
goodmorning: ME

AA9 has a different playstyle and you know it. AA9 is also slightly more experienced.
With ryhx, that could perfectly be the case, but I'm not willing to believe it. His posts have been consistent unlike Guyett's.
Right now, I'm not pushing this thing on Deri. He's just a named VT at the moment. Just saying that I'm keeping close eyes on him.
Gar's first posts upset me. The way he played and the way he moved and the people he called out were not fitting to a regular Town mindset.
I don't want him to be confirmed Town in my eyes, because I haven't interacted much with him. "Too quick" means dismissing the possibility that he is scum and then losing at LyLo because I was too hasty to say he was Town.
Yeah that's me
Yeah that's you
But goodmorning, ryhx will obviously hammer Guyett. Why don't you do it first?

[Guyett]

GM has a thing about your slot and I don't expect her to move from it anytime soon.
since when has experience anything to do with me being scum?

[TheGarantula]

As VT why would you want to knowingly cause a mislynch? Is it really better than no lynch? I don't think I completely understand.

[TheGarantula]

That was with regards to GM's hypothetical.

[TheIrishPope]

Gar, planning on hammering? Many benefits! Piñas coladas! Sunbathing! Killing scum! Canoeing!

[Guyett]

yes gar you should hammer... unvote me and vote TIP pls

[TheIrishPope]

Whoops, my bad, thought Gar was voting me
Oh well
GM I know you're around

[Guyett]

You are probably thinking of Kingmaker. Guess what. There is no role that allows that in this setup. And now you continue to derail from the subject. This is confirmed scum, guys. Lynch him, and if he doesn't flip scum, I will literally run around MIT (where I am working at the moment) wearing nothing but a pair of shoes and scissors.

If I turn out to be scum I'll hop on the train to belfast and run around the titanic museum in the nip

[goodmorning]

@TIP: I like this discussion that's happening. So I don't want to hammer him at present.

As VT why would you want to knowingly cause a mislynch? Is it really better than no lynch? I don't think I completely understand.

It is really better than a no-lynch.
1. From a numerical standpoint, it keeps the player #s lightly town-sided. I'm not really into this point but Jason can probably explain it to you; it's to do with the # of mislynches town gets.
2. From your own standpoint it's not that much of a sacrifice, you have no PR and it's OK for you to die.
3. It allows the rest of the Town to analyze the shit out of everyone's reactions to and vote on you knowing for certain that you are town and not a liar.

In that situation it is indeed worth it.


And now I'm going canoeing.

PEDIT Well someone somewhere is going to have an interesting day then...

[JasonWazza]

1. From a numerical standpoint, it keeps the player #s lightly town-sided. I'm not really into this point but Jason can probably explain it to you; it's to do with the # of mislynches town gets.

I can fill this one then

Spoiler: Numbers and lots of them

Basically the game starts at;

7 V 2

As a Town V Scum Ratio.

This first example assumes no PR influence.

Day 1- Lynch- 6 V 2
Night 1- Kill- 5 V 2

Now for Day 2 i will do 2 different situations, one with a no lynch, and one with a lynch

Day 2- Lynch- 4 V 2
Night 2- Kill- 3 V 2 LYLO

Scenario 2 is a no Lynch

Day 2- No Lynch- 5 V 2
Night 2- Kill- 4 V 2 MYLO

MYLO basically means if we lynch wrong, we lose (because the Mafia then have a kill, and Mafia can then No Lynch to a win), and we are more likely to mislynch so the only LOGICAL thing to do if town has 1 to many for LYLO is to No Lynch.

Day 3- No Lynch- 4 V 2
Night 3- Kill- 3 V 2 LYLO

Now lets analyze these 2 situations

Lynching every day, gives us 2 mislynches, and gets us to day 2

No Lynching on Day 2, gives us

1

mislynch, and gets us to day 3

Another thing about the No Lynch scenario, is we've allowed Scum to come to a 3 V 1 Kill ratio, in which they killed 3 townies, which generally means 3 stronger townies and 1 weaker townie are dead.

In a Always Lynch Scenario it becomes a 2 V 2 Scenario meaning 2 weaker townies, and 2 stronger townies are dead, obviously this is the optimal situation (generally speaking.)

The MYLO situation is also why a 1-shot Bulletproof can't give an extra mislynch, this will be shown in the next example

Day 1- Lynch- 6 V 2
Night 1- No Kill due to PR- 6 V 2
Day 2- Lynch- 5 V 2

We then come to 2 situations

Night 2- No Kill due to PR- 5 V 2

In which we now have an extra Mislynch and

Night 2- Kill- 4 V 2

In which we have to No Lynch anyway.

That spoiler basically puts the numbers into a practical sense, and explains MYLO (sort of), and how much Certain PR's will be able to gain the town a mislynch.

[TheGarantula]

That was a good explanation, thanks. I think the part I was missing the most was the 3-1 vs 2-2 point and the extra mislynch in general.

[JasonWazza]

The Mislynch VS MYLO situation is something people look over a lot, so don't worry too much.

[Guyett]

I've to go out soon and I mightn't be back before the deadline
I really wanted to be around for the flip

[TheIrishPope]

You see, goodmorning? No more discussion. This is it. You are cleared. Drop the hammer.

[Derivan]

But unless someone counter claims, Deri is believable. If someone counter-claims, well at this late stage I'll probably still believe Deri over a counter claimer. It would be some lucky odds for Deri to have guessed right.

If the claim was Doc rather than BP and from a particular player I think I'd believe it over Deri's. Not sharing which as that would be more helpful to Scum that anything.

Interesting how GM quickly jumped from:

1. Buddying (stating I am in all likelyhood CONFTOWN even though "she would really like me not to be")
2. Setting me up for a lynch tomorrow (see above).

@Rhyx, Gar
What are your reservations on lynching GM today?

@TIP
What is the rush? How does hammering right now help us? This is terribly scummy.

[TheIrishPope]

What's the difference between hammering now and in 17 hours?

[Derivan]

Guyett: Scum. This guy started throwing shit at me the second I raised suspicion on his slot.
ryhx: Town. Newbscum would have hammered someone and tried to escape it next day. He is playing logically.
Derivan: Null. HIS CLAIM MEANS NOTHING. Which begs the question: why would a BP claim D1?
TheGarantula: Null. Had a decent case on him when he had to Town it up for himself.
JasonWazza: I don't want to be too quick to call him Town, but he is Null-leaning Town right now.
TheIrishPope: Me!
goodmorning: Wait, who's goodmorning?

It's pretty obvious you haven't even read the thread.

What's the difference between hammering now and in 17 hours?

Seriously?

[TheIrishPope]

Yeah, seriously.

[Guyett]

I hope you make the right decision and lynch TIP. I know I made a mistake with the drunkhammer but it was that... a mistake not a scum slip.
By all means continue discussions... make sure to discuss how to deal with Day 3 when there is 3 town and 2 scum and you are in lylo.
Would someone do me a favour and quote this incase you lynch me while I'm out


and possibly this one too

[TheIrishPope]

I can post GIFs and insult people too. Does that make me Town

[Guyett]

nope, that was purely for people to look back on

[Guyett]

Guyett: Scum. This guy started throwing shit at me the second I raised suspicion on his slot.
ryhx: Town. Newbscum would have hammered someone and tried to escape it next day. He is playing logically.
Derivan: Null. HIS CLAIM MEANS NOTHING. Which begs the question: why would a BP claim D1?
TheGarantula: Null. Had a decent case on him when he had to Town it up for himself.
JasonWazza: I don't want to be too quick to call him Town, but he is Null-leaning Town right now.
TheIrishPope: Me!
goodmorning: Wait, who's goodmorning?

anything more indepth to add?

also regarding your read on me there

OMGUS is a nulltell. Scum gets angry and ragey; Town gets upset and heartbroken and sad.

[TheGarantula]

Derivan I think the case is much stronger on Guyett than anything on goodmorning.

[Guyett]

Also would you point out the post where I started throwing shit at you and the post where you raised suspicion at my slot.... because from where I'm sitting it looks like your vote was OMGUS