NY 165: A Large Normal (Game Over!)

[KingCrabd]

Okay hi firstly actually you copied me for that fake hammer tech >:[

Yeah, and you copied it from the players before you. My point is, it's not effective past the first use, especially not when it's done so laughably wrong. It was a blatant attempt for towncred.

[Zdenek]

======[]
[]======

VOTE: BULBAFENIX

[Rift Adrift]

SLOW DOWN

UNVOTE

Taking my vote off for now because I

1. Promised more talk with bulba

2. Want to see Cephrir's reply

3. Want orcinus to post his thoughts about bulba and cephrir

4. Want Lists for vigging and copping

before we end the day.

[Serene]

SLOW DOWN

UNVOTE

Taking my vote off for now because I

1. Promised more talk with bulba

2. Want to see Cephrir's reply

3. Want orcinus to post his thoughts about bulba and cephrir

4. Want Lists for vigging and copping

before we end the day.

Who cares what orcinus thinks

Besides we have 135 PAGES and ONE LYNCH

You want to chit chat with Bulba some more??? Time's up!

There is no vig/cop list, unless you're scum and you want us to make your NK selection easier.

[Shadi1337]

Is 135 pages with this many players really that much.

[Rift Adrift]

Rift, you never gave your thoughts on Cephrir. I cornered him, showed why what he was doing was scummy, and now he's running scared. I want that scummy piece of filth deaded by a rope.

Your post 3321 reads like a smear job. In every instance you've put Cephrir's posts in the most negative possible light, and have really stretched to get the light there. I have played with scum players who are that calculating and who make every single post push one of their agendas, but they are rare, and most of them do this inside of a town suit or they die. Cephrir's posts just don't read that way. The only way to see so many of the posts in that light is to start with the assumption that he's scum and then look for scum motivation until you can find one.

If you were that tinfoil, I think you'd be tinfoiling about a bunch more players. Because it's almost always possible to build a scum case if you start with the assumption that a player is scum.

[BulbaFenix]

Rift, you never gave your thoughts on Cephrir. I cornered him, showed why what he was doing was scummy, and now he's running scared. I want that scummy piece of filth deaded by a rope.

Your post 3321 reads like a smear job. In every instance you've put Cephrir's posts in the most negative possible light, and have really stretched to get the light there. I have played with scum players who are that calculating and who make every single post push one of their agendas, but they are rare, and most of them do this inside of a town suit or they die. Cephrir's posts just don't read that way. The only way to see so many of the posts in that light is to start with the assumption that he's scum and then look for scum motivation until you can find one.

If you were that tinfoil, I think you'd be tinfoiling about a bunch more players. Because it's almost always possible to build a scum case if you start with the assumption that a player is scum.

So I give you a summary of why I think a player is scum, and transparently so at that, and your reaction is to discount it because "Bulba's being mean"? I mean, seriously, that's been your stance on us and why we're scum this entire game. "Bulba's applying pressure on people he thinks has displayed scummy intention. He's being mean to scum. He must be scum and stopped." I'm not even sure you've been reading what I've even said, based on your reaction. You're just ignoring it, saying I'm being mean, and then voting me. Sheesh. No wonder we can't get anywhere. As much as I hate to agree with Serene, they're absolutely right! Nobody in this entire town wants to actually find and lynch scum! If anybody tries, the wagon they push either disintegrates, or they are called scum themselves for actually pushing on scummy players. It's sickening. You've turned this into a popularity contest instead of an actual scumhunt, and as such, you're playing right into scums' hands. If this town does not get their heads out of their collective butts, then we will lose, and deservedly so, I think.

Now if you'll excuse me, I have a VCA to do. I think Cephrir's going to try to lurk out the rest of the day and hope our lynch goes through. Contrary to your opinion, I think he is that calculating as scum, and he is playing a high level of mind game. His one weakness is that he folds under pressure, which is why he ran away after I countered his weak arguments.

-Bulba

[Rift Adrift]

I didn't say anything about being mean. I said it "looks like a smear job", because on the face of it, it does. But, I outlined how it could be coming from a highly frontloaded and biased town perspective.

Your reaction to the fake-hammer is a bigger deal to me in terms of your alignment.

[Calcifer]

If you end the day before i come back i will be pissed.

[Rift Adrift]

When do you plan to come back?

[Cephrir]

If you end the day before i come back i will be pissed.

this

[Serene]

If you end the day before i come back i will be pissed.

Yes god forbid we should lynch scum without you.

[BulbaFenix]

Your reaction to the fake-hammer is a bigger deal to me in terms of your alignment.

Why? I found out about it when Koopa's reaction and claim ninja'd my catch-up post. I then went back to see who hammered. Upon finding out that it was Crabd, I said that he should be policy lynched the next day for quickhammering. I spent the rest of the time trying to get as much information out of Koopa as possible, such as if he had made any kills the previous night (I thought that TIP was a vig. kill.) and if he had any other strong or semi-strong scum or town reads. Everybody's been focusing on the PL statement only, which I stand behind 100% in the event of a quickhammer.

[BulbaFenix]

-Bulba (I need to stop forgetting that...)

[BulbaFenix]

BulbaFenix (6)

- StevieT92,

Zdenek

,

Calcifer

,

DOMO

, Baby Spice,

Serene

BulbaFenix (9)

-

DOMO

, Marquis, Cephrir, KingCrabd,

Serene

, Thirdkoopa, RiftAdrift,

Calcifer

,

Zdenek

Okay, given a typical ratio of 1:3, we're looking at 6 scum this game, which may or may not include a SK. That means that we should expect at least half on our wagon.

With the earlier wagon, we should be looking for about 3 scum, with 1 scum off the wagon verbally supporting it (that'd be Cephrir). There may be the slight chance of 4 scum on the wagon, but I'd say that's unlikely, and if it is the case, there are no more than that. For the first wagon, I'd break it into possible scum as follows:

Scum on wagon: StevieT92, Calcifer, DOMO
Scum verbally supporting wagon: Cephrir
Outside chance of being scum in 4 scum eventuality: Zdenek

Let's examine the second wagon. Same probabilities, although this one doesn't have anybody soft supporting it. It is far more likely that this wagon contains a fourth scum member on board, but we'll still treat it as unlikely. It breaks down as follows:

Scum on wagon: Cephrir, Marquis, Calcifer
Outside chance of being scum in 4 scum eventuality: DOMO

Now to analyze both wagons together:

People on both wagons: Zdenek, Calcifer, DOMO, Serene
Wagon 1 Scum Pool: StevieT92, Calcifer, DOMO, Cephrir, Zdenek
Wagon 2 Scum Pool: Cephrir, Marquis, Calcifer, DOMO
Shared Scum Pool: Calcifer, DOMO, Cephrir
Repeaters (from highest to lowest): Calcifer(4), DOMO(4), Cephrir(3), Zdenek(2)

Just based on simple VCA, it is highly likely that Calcifer and DOMO are scum. If you add context to the VCA, Cephrir is added to that list. Zdenek also has an outside chance of being scum, based on VCA theory alone.

Now to examine the reasons for being on the wagon:

DOMO

- They've been pushing our slot since the beginning of the day, no surprise there. I think they're scum, but multiple people have said that they're playing to their town meta, so they get a pass for now.

Marquis

- No clue. He's mainly trying to sheep popular opinion. I almost wonder if he's trying to appear VI on purpose or shoot for the "too scummy to be scum" fallacy. To be honest, the only reason why I thought MS was town was because his play looked similar to what I had seen before, and I thought that he was probably a vig. Marquis's play is making me think that I may have been wrong and that he's just scum.

Cephrir

- OMGUS. I've already explained in detail why he's scum.

KingCrabd

- They're looking to pressure me to see what happens. They didn't like my reaction to the fakehammer, which is too bad for them. We're not exactly likely to get NK'd given the obsession of several players to lynch us, and even if we did bite it, it shouldn't be that difficult to figure out what our reads were. Besides, it was more important to get information from the PR that we thought was being lynched, rather than put out another reads list.

Serene

- Serene being Serene. I'm chalking this one up to DGB's bad scumdar. She pushed for my mislynch in Voided's game. She's doing the same thing here. This hydra needs to get its head in the game and actually analyze players rather than just call the scum for contrived reasons. I think they will get better when Kuribo comes into his own, but until then, they're getting in the way.

Thirdkoopa

- Not sure really. I'd like him to explain why he thinks we're scum. My best guess is a compromise lynch.

RiftAdrift

- Ffery has been paranoid about me ever since Donner Party. No clue about Syryana. They have since unvoted and opened up a dialogue.

Calcifer

- We have asked them for a case repeatedly, and they continue to ignore us. I'm not so sure about this hydra anymore, not because Nacho hasn't townread me, but because I would have expected a precise case from him that I could dissect. However, they have not provided such a case. Add in Mastin's AtE to Serene d1, and their attempts at buddying up to them, and I'm starting to think that I was wrong and Calcifer is scum. I'm also starting to think that Cephrir may have been chainsaw defending them when he went out of his way to discredit me on my Calcifer buddy point.

Zdenek

- HIs recent vote is confusing to me, as I thought he had moved away from a Bulba-scum read. Regardless, his reads are based on horribad tells. My experience with him indicates that he likely doesn't know what a scumtell is, but he was town in my last game with him (where he called me scum because I post walls), so he's likely town here as well. I'd like to see a more concise case from him.

Current Reads

Town

Thirdkoopa
Rift Adrift
Orcinus_theoriginal
BROseidon
KingCrabd
Serene
Dramonic
Baby Spice
The Goat

Null/Town

Zdenek

Null

StubbsKVM
Brian Hollywood
Ankamius

Null/Scum

DOMO

Scum

Shadi 1337
TMTOLBTWNTOF
Marquis
Calcifer
StevieT92
Cephrir

-Bulba

[Serene]

Hey BFenix

Repeat the exercise including all main wagons and you have my attention.

[Zdenek]

I don't think walls are scummy. I think walls that are devoid of content are.

[Serene]

BFenix is town, that was an experiment.

I still want to see BFenix's analysis of ALL wagons, not just his own.

[Serene]

Meanwhile
VOTE: Shadi

[Thirdkoopa]

BFenix is town, that was an experiment.

I still want to see BFenix's analysis of ALL wagons, not just his own.

Wait what now, also ^ This. Same with the first day wagon. You guys are letting too much off the hook.

I'm here for a bit now at least. Since the day is ending one way or another soon, I do want to have more of an idea on who to vig since I think that got lost in everything else. Yeah, give me a list. I'm not gonna just pick one person.

[Zdenek]

I'd like to see a more concise case from him.

The case is that I think you fabricated hydra-dissonance between your heads regarding your read of Serene, and all of your attempts to explain it seem like lies.

BFenix is town, that was an experiment.

Is this because of his scum list or is there something else?

[Serene]

Yeah scumlist

But maybe I'm just a fool

[Serene]

The fabricated hydra-dissonance is giving me heartburn, though.

[Rift Adrift]

This game.

We have 3 and a half days.

[KingCrabd]

3364 is faked and there's something glaringly wrong with it. Free internet cookie for the first person to notice.