I don't even want to speculate. She waited pretty late to flip out about you and that doesn't look look like it was investigation-driven. She was even pushing to just go ahead and hammer, and if we had, none of this discussion would have taken place.
So I am fucking skeptical there's anything about her role that would indicate the alignment of other players than Dram. BUT, cardflip. This is WIFOM without one.
Syryana and fferyllt: doing nothing but tunneling while giving virtually no other reads worth anything. Also, puppies.
If it were that simple, if it were only that simple, we would never have called you in about it, Rydra Wong. -- Samuel R. Delany,
Why don't you quote Nero calling me "downs" again? Why don't you call me delusional? Why don't you tell everyone to ignore me? That's all you got, is to discredit me.
Post #4098, the one you ignored where I say dram is pretty much conf town, and even when he's scum one of the them gets picked off by the other faction before it becomes critical. Vigging dram is as stupid as a day one mason fakelclaim. The bullet should be used to thin down the pool of unknowns, not to confirm serene as mason when it gets confirmed in good time anyway. I expect you to reach this conculsion all by yourself.
I'm failing to see any town motivation whatsoever in asking for dram to be vigged. It makes no sense. Seems to me like you want a free NK.
The real reason orc wants dram shot is because orc knows it's optimal for koopa to shoot at ank, orc, rift or crabd, seeing as I have shown why there's a good chance there's two scum in there, while there's probably 3 scum in the remaining 8 (the 7 I named plus myself). Doesn't take a genius to figure out which group has a higher success rate. If orc were town in that group of four, he should be asking koopa to shoot at that group, because there's a good chance of hitting scum, and even if orc gets shot, he would recognise his townflip helps us immensely. That is unless he disagrees with the idea that the NKs implicate the town bloc heavily, but he has already said that he finds the kills weird, and has turned on rift and crabd. So why does orc want a claimed mason shot when it has a near zero success rate, instead of shooting at a group of four with a 50% success rate? Because he's scum who doesn't want to get shot.
You're right ceph, it's a little absurd to think that orc thinks he can actually get dram shot. But seems to me that scum fucked up with their kills last night, and so it's more or less forced. Orc really doesn't want koopa firing at his cosy little town group. It gives him less places to hide. And firing at the larger group either bags scum, or removes a potential mislynch. I expect orc to be a little more subtle with his scum stratgey, but this isn't solid town strategy he's spewing at us.
He's either derp town or scheming scum. I find the latter much easier to believe.
I don't agree with respect to the townbloc, I trust my reads over NK speculation any day (though I can imagine certain members thereof being scum), but you do have an argument.
In post 4143, DOMO wrote:The real reason orc wants dram shot is because orc knows it's optimal for koopa to shoot at ank, orc, rift or crabd, seeing as I have shown why there's a good chance there's two scum in there, while there's probably 3 scum in the remaining 8 (the 7 I named plus myself). Doesn't take a genius to figure out which group has a higher success rate. If orc were town in that group of four, he should be asking koopa to shoot at that group, because there's a good chance of hitting scum, and even if orc gets shot, he would recognise his townflip helps us immensely. That is unless he disagrees with the idea that the NKs implicate the town bloc heavily, but he has already said that he finds the kills weird, and has turned on rift and crabd. So why does orc want a claimed mason shot when it has a near zero success rate, instead of shooting at a group of four with a 50% success rate? Because he's scum who doesn't want to get shot.
You're right ceph, it's a little absurd to think that orc thinks he can actually get dram shot. But seems to me that scum fucked up with their kills last night, and so it's more or less forced. Orc really doesn't want koopa firing at his cosy little town group. It gives him less places to hide. And firing at the larger group either bags scum, or removes a potential mislynch. I expect orc to be a little more subtle with his scum stratgey, but this isn't solid town strategy he's spewing at us.
He's either derp town or scheming scum. I find the latter much easier to believe.