In post 6127, BBmolla wrote: In post 6124, callforjudgement wrote:Isn't it in town's interest to lynch a suspected townie day 1 in We Need A Fifth? (Preferably the second-towniest of the 4.) That gives them a confirmed townie going into day 2 if the vengekill hits (which it probably will), and if they mess up and lynch scum instead, that isn't exactly a problem.
I'm a bit wary of setups where aiming to lynch town is better than aiming to lynch scum…
?
You lynch scum you get a confirmed town
You lynch town you get confirmed town, BUT could possibly lose the game
You're welcome to figure a way to provide more incentive to not lynch town
Put it this way: the town make an order from towniest to scummiest, 1/2/3/4.
Normal Mafia play would be to lynch 4 (and have them shoot 3 if they're town); I'm suggesting they should lynch 2 (and have them shoot 4 if they're town).
If the actual town/scum for 1/2/3/4 is:
most likely
TTSS
lynching player 2: go to lylo with player 2 confirmed
; lynching player 4: player 4 dies, go to lylo with no confirmations
TSTS
either strategy: go to lylo with no confirmations
TSST lynching player 2: go to lylo with no confirmations;
lynching player 4: player 3 dies, go to lylo with player 4 confirmed
STTS
lynching player 2: go to lylo with player 2 confirmed
; lynching player 4: go to lylo with no confirmations
STST lynching player 2: scum win;
lynching player 4: player 3 dies, go to lylo with no confirmations
SSTT
lynching player 2: go to lylo with no confirmations
; lynching player 4: scum win
least likely
I've bolded the better outcome in each case. Not only are there more possibilities where lynching player 2 is optimal, the possibilities where lynching player 2 is optimal tend to be more likely.