The Red Wedding - The Goose is Loose

[Cabd]

Good.

[Cabd]

But why does reckoner?

[Amrun]

idk

i'm guessing he's not vt

either way i seriously doubt it's not some sort of mod-originated claim

[Cabd]

So let me compile the claims, hang on.

[Metal Sonic]

Bah Bah Bah Bah Bah

[Cabd]

I am Dacey Mormont.

I don't see myself supporting anyone's lynch over inHim's today if nothing crazy happens pretty fast.

I'm GREY WIND, bitches.

inhim, claim or die!

Relax, I was joking. I even claimed in the post. Just to clarify, I am Greatjon Umber of Last Hearth. I can drink more wine than any of you. Although I should have just claimed to be Moon Boy because I am playing super shitty.

Greatjon Umber, Vanilla Town

Wendel Manderly, VT. Reck, who are you?

I'm Robb.

Oh, I'm VT, and it doesn't mention Robb, I think. :/ Let me double check.

[Venmar]

*mumble mumble mumble*

I am Smalljon Umber ( BIG SURPRISE ), i softclaimed as him ALL OF D1

[Venmar]

I didn't mean to click submit wtf, stupid enter key

[Venmar]

Me trying to "flip table" was supposed to imply how the Smalljon flipped a table over Robb during the massacre to protect him. I did this to Reckoner cause Reck made it obvious he was "rob". All of my following comments allude to me being a an umber as well, examples such as #256, #264, and #394 ( me being the greatjons son ) should make it very clear why I was joking around all D1.

Now here comes the fucked up part. I am a Frey Cop. I investigate people and all I lear is if they are a Frey or not. The reason why this role is driving me crazy is because it only mis-directs me and confuses me, since Frey does not actually = town, nor does it actually = scum. When I get a " not a frey " result it makes me think the person is town but then it also makes me think the person is scum cause non-Freys can be scum as well according to Andrius. THIS IS DUMB. It's like having a LOTR game and giving me a role named "Human Cop" that tells me if a player is human. WELL IDK, there's a lot of bad humans in lotr and good humans in lotr, anyone could be gondor aligned or sauran aligned, how many I supposed to derive anything but confusion from my results wtf?

$374 was supposed to be a bad attempt at soft claiming a PR, 1019 was me being confused on why a Frey could be town in accordance to my role ( due to Nachos flip ), because at the time I still thought Frey = scum.

Here's my night actions:

Night 1 -

Investigated CDB ( Got "not a frey" )

Night 2 -

Investigated Nexus ( Got "not a frey" )

Night 3 -

Inestigated Amrun ( Got "not a frey" )

Night 4 -

Investigated Ankamius ( Got "not a frey" )

Realistically, these results should make all of the above people TOWN, because in practice my results makes them MORE likely to be town, but it doesn't GUARANTEE anything, anyone realize who confusing and f'ed up this is for me? I investigated CDB Night 1 because he was very nullish to me and I needed something to clear up my read, I investigated Nexus on N2 cause i figured I needed somekind of leverage to swing you stubborn people even thought I was wrong, I investigated Amrun N3 cause I still thought she was scum and idek if I still do, and I investigated Ankamius N4 because that's what my gut told me to do and now idek.

#1030 was me making a tiny softclaim that I investigated CDB, though i didnt make it obvious, won't quote anything because it's obvious, but my entire fiesta over Nexus's lynch was because of my N2 investigation on him, which was the only reason you guys saw me pussy out of it, won't quote anything again because I started to do the same on Amrun after my N3 investigation last day, and I investigated Ankamius N4.

I tried to find the posts where I do speculation on the flavour of the mafia and my opinion on Multiball, but I was particularly interested in that discussion because of my role, since I wanted to know how likely would a Frey be a scum.

You guys can be my guests and figure all of this shit out, the mixed signals and confusion has been driving me crazy every since my N2 investigation on Nexus. Amruns and Anks claims align with my investigations, but my investigations are so vague you guys shouldn't even consider them confirmed since they could be fakeclaims or a diff character that is not a frey but still scum. ( HINT HINT ROOSE THE LOOSE )

[Venmar]

3 or 4 scum in this size of a game?

How many freys in that? Walder, Black, and Lothar make sense as freys. Andrius said Frey doesn't have to mean scum so there has to be at least 1 non-frey mafia member. If the mafia is 3 people big then it's Waler/Black/Bolton imo. If it's 4 people big then it's Walder/Black/Lothar/Bolton. That's that I think.

[inHimshallibe]

Roose is a GF variant and the Lover was a Miller variant. I think that fits.

(I like the role, Andy.)

[tsunami]

Hmmm...I want to hear back from reck, but if his role pm mentions grey wind and grey wind is here and is amrun, then they're both likely to be town. I'm thinking of the role I had in mafia raptured where zdenek was basically confirmed town to me because of being m neti owned in my role pm. I'm not sure what to do with this though because I was ready to grill him over the day one hammer as the generic wagon was starting to pick up some steam, but if he's town then I need to rethink some things because I was sure he and inhim were the final remaining scum.

I think that venmars role makes him near confirmed town. The only scum motivated purpose for that role that I can think of is if he were a traitor who did not know the mafia and needed to find them, but I don't believe that. I guess if this were multiball it could have scum use, but there's no evidence of that. His role is like staeg's role in adwd and like a magic cop I had in a wheel of time game.

One thing that is useful for that role is to bust fake claims, so since cabd and reck had already claimed you could have checked them. I can sympathisize with his frustration as not all freys are evil, notably there's the one who married the tully, Robb's squire and one of the twins I think. That's all I can think of and I'm kind of rambling now. Oh also since one of the kill flavors is flaying, Roose does seem to be part of the scum team, so for that person venmar wouldn't be able to find him.

Oh I'm arya and vt.

Also I'm going to be v/la for at least a week. On Thursday I start my cross country move and I'm not exactly sure when I'm going to have Internet in my new apartment. But I have my phone, so I will be able to post and read along.

[inHimshallibe]

Gut reaction is to disbelieve the Arya claim.

[Venmar]

How the hell did Desperado die, he was a commuter. Is Bolton a stalker as well as a betraying ass? ( sorry had to vent that )

Also I didn't even noticed he was flayed. Someone is Bolton. *cries at my own role*

Vote: Tsunami

[inHimshallibe]

LOL at my list, btw. My re-entry into the pool has taught me something about what I would have read as town in the past and what seems to be scummy play now.

[inHimshallibe]

Sorry, I've taken a very amused, backseat approach to this game after being so dreadfully wrong. I can't help but laugh now and try to be semi-useful here down the homestretch.

Let's go look at votes. Lolz.

[inHimshallibe]

Alright, I'd stick with voting tsunami/Ank today. I'm throwing out most of my previous holistic approach, and focusing in on tsunami's claim and overall staleness, along with Ankamius' relations to Generic and subsequent flip onto me as main reasons to vote them.

[xRECKONERx]

Phone post while on break from work:
My role name is bodyguard director. Each night I can protect someone from a kill, but I do this by sending my dire wolf, Grey Wind. It clearly says SHOULD I PREVENT A KILL, GREY WIND WILL DIE and I can no longer use my ability.

I thought this was basically just a modified one shot doctor the whole game but if Amrun is claiming Grey Wind maybe I'm literally sending her to protect people at night.

[xRECKONERx]

Why did I do this

^scum whining early

VOTE: reck

not an rvs vote

get 'im, greywind

Breadcrumbs here and also other early posts

Btw if km correct ab how this role works then it's one of the coolest roles ever

[Amrun]

Fuck that's awesome maybe I can die before lylo

100% believe Ven for his change of stance on Venmar due to results. Also I already thought that shit was town so whatever.

Reck, any reason you didn't suspect me for being grey wind?

[xRECKONERx]

Did you breadcrumb it or something?

[xRECKONERx]

Oh, do you mean why didn't I think you were fakeclaiming or something?

By the time I claimed enough people had already claimed not-scum-flavor to make me think that the mod gave out fakeclaims, and I highly doubt Andy would give scum a fakeclaim that is part of a town role. Like, he'd essentially be completely bastardizing how I view my role upon claim if he gave Grey Wind as a scum fakeclaim.

This means I am town and Amrun is town fo' sho'. Also liking Venmar here, too, for his play earlier PLUS that claim.

7 alive, probably 2 scum

We have 3 all-but-mod-confirmed towns

Which means we've got a 50/50 chance of hitting scum today

VOTE: inhimshallibe

[Amrun]

Yeah I'm good with this. Very happy with Reck town now.

I don't know which of my tsunami/ank/cabd reads are wrong. Worst claim is arya vt but weakest read is Ankamius.

VOTE: inhimshallibe

[Amrun]

On the other hand, dacey Mormont is a pretty obscure character which makes me think it's less likely to be a fakeclaim? Let me go check generic's claim.

[Amrun]

Fierce has picked up on something I hadn't noticed actually about apple, in that the explaining away of how he is perceived came from no actual need to explain anything. It was more a paranoia of being perceived as scummy and an explanation back to being town through it.

Apple, right now who are your top three suspects for mafia?

So Generic and Tierce tag teamed KillerApple in the thread, when they had daytalk. This, in my mind, makes cabd 100% town. I was already pretty sure but that's the "hammer" so to speak.

The additional case reckoner has begun to poke apple with is even more concerning. I'm not encouraged by apples responses to what seem decent points. And post 150 is a hand waving away of it without looking like he is reacting in a negative way to a momentum gaining wagon.

vote killerapple

You seem to be attempting to hold a measure of control under pressure but you aren't effectively answering the points raised against you, it's vague and dismissive.

Just to make my point.

Hey, Generic.

The town hunting comment for example, declaring someone town without basis is a combination of arrogance and not having a proper case to base such a declaration on, yet you were fine with this as game progression. I am feeling there is a sense of misguidedness but the concern I have on the gut read is are you trying to back up a teammate?

Oi.

Have mercy on the non-native, my English curled up in horror halfway through this. Can you rephrase it?

UNVOTE: Nachomamma8
VOTE: Venmar

Amrun--what games have you played with Nacho before?

What do you want from me? If someone just says "player Xis town" and doesn't given any reason why I find it cockiness/arrogance/self sure on a high scale. It's like saying they don't need to say anymore be ause it should be obvious, but that hides potentially having no case at all for it and the only reason to be able to say it is they already know who is town... And only one type of player knows that for certain.

Shit, I know I had a scumread on Generic right at this point, but why did I talk myself out of it so easily? :/. This is a basic scum tell. "Stop! My mislynches are disappearing too fast!"

Three scum reads are you, venmar and reckoner.

Reckoner barely provides any actual case against anyone or reason for he vote. Much like you he tunnels hard but then flip flops the vote with the mood of the game.

Venmar spends a lot of time and effort pushing the nexus case, very good evforts too. But then abandons it to vote amrun and then leaps off that again because he isn't seeing any movement on that wagon. Opportunistically moving about, not actually based on scumtells.

Your lynch will answer for me why you ignore several of these other tells on others.
So what's next? Redirecting again or will you actually address the fact you only withdrew your lie when it was mentioned town lie about that sort if thing?
To me you tried to bully the game with the lie, it backfired like a motherfucker on you and you are now retracting while you can.

And you keep on with the onslaught in the hope to force it through. You have no case or else you would let it stand on its own, but you are panicking cos it didn't get the reaction you wanted.

If anyone needed any more reasons Reck and Venmar are town.

I did quote your post amrun with the intention of responding but then spotted desperados shit and commented on that.

My day 1 reads are out the window with metal sonic flipping town. Haven't had time to look back over the game, but reckoner is suspicious for that hammer drop, cabd was trying to set me up for suspicion before the day had even ended which now I know MS was town makes his quizzing everyone on whether we still thought he was scum as a tactical play.

And again.

Venmar, why are you only considered about lack of reasoning with Dekes votes and not other votes that have been thrown down?

I can only speak for me personally, but I'm not voting for Dekes because Nacho died (though knowing that the push came from town is good), but simply because his case was good, combined with Dekes' even more terrible posting at the end of the day and in twilight.

So it's short of sheeping Nacho but not for the reasons you think.

It is, however, fairly safe to think it's VERY LIKELY nacho was the one targetted last night.

I agree on nacho being the target, he was listed first of the lovers. I assumed the other lover died as a direct result, but does the flavour indicate suicide? That's usually the case with the 2nd lover on sites I have played on, yet it's very ambiguous in this case.

Nacho was probably the n1 scum kill.

Worthless check-in post. Just letting the mod know I'm still in this one.

Care to actually contribute?

Inhimshallibe, I was intrigued by your statistical analysis there with the votes and such, not a fan of such a cold method of scumhunting but I am still rather intrigued nonetheless.

Can you explain the bottom part of each of your three vote assessments please, whats the significance of the names and their positions?

Buddy coaching?

Im liking my cabd vote right now. He hasn't done anything to suddenly make me ignore the points I raised.

vote reckoner

Not letting him get away with it twice. Everyone seemed to forget his antics day 1, and I'm just as much to blame for that, but with MS it didn't seem to be as scummy via of how MS was playing.
But to do it twice? He has to for today, end of story.

Arm, I think you will find yesterday I suspected cabd and he isn't exactly being pro town now sheeping and Bsolving himself of responsibility.

And I am voting reckoner, who hammered out of nowhere twice.

So that's two. But no, not offering scum choices at all am I.

Did I mention that Reck and cabd are town? Yeah.

Inhim seems to be desperately pushing a question already asked... Excited by the mislynch are we?

Only mention of inhim as remotely scummy -- after he wasn't in generic's "scum" list.