Mini 1478 ~ Mafia Xenologue (Game Over!)

[Vi]

~Vote Count IV:

Ricken (also, bunnies)

DTMaster (2) ~ Saki, Sakura Hana
Sakura Hana (2) ~

(Saki,)

Oil Tycoons, Jabberwock
Saki (2) ~ Purpkin,

(DTMaster,)

Andrius
morph the cat (1) ~ ProHawk

Not Voting:

(Andrius,)

Daemon385,

(Jabberwock,)

Lady Lambdadelta, morph the cat, Natirasha,

(Oil Tycoons, Sakura Hana,)

DTMaster

--With 12 alive, it takes 7 to lynch.

---Apparently puppies are now currency with me.

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(100%)

12

[Jabberwock]

I can't help but laugh at my percieved competence.
Sorry to break it to you, Tierce, but I'm actually an idiot.

(Psst, it was me, Empire, not Tierce. Every single post on this last page has been me.)

---

Just got back and here are the reads I have that haven't already been talked about by me. Haven't had the chance to talk to Tierce about these but she can add onto this whenever she gets back.

Natirasha:

Up until the fake dayvig, I wasn't a big fan of his ISO because it included a lot of setup/mechanics spec and very little in the way of actual reads or proactive scumhunting. However, I actually really liked his reaction to the dayvig and #350 read super genuine to me. It's the kind of self deprecating post I see come from town who feels like they're getting nowhere in a game far more often than from scum. Scum usually just feel the need to BS reads and produce all sorts of fake scumhunting content so admitting straight up that he doesn't really know what he's doing here re: scumhunting is something I think he's far more likely to do as town than as scum.

DTMaster:

Mostly due to his behavior surrounding the roleblock. I know most people get why he's town from that but to make clear from my perspective, him thinking he caught scum due to the missing nightkill and retreating from it after Oil's claim was super genuine in that I don't really see any benefit to setting up a potential mislynch in Saki that he'd have to answer for quickly the following day. The only way I could see him being scum is if he's scum with Saki and he was trying to bus for cred but I don't see that as super likely.

Sakura Hana:

The reason I asked about #353 is that I saw that post as a potential towntell -- I don't think Sakura would have voiced approval of the TIP mislynch after the fact and that it's far more likely she would have said she didn't know/had no opinion (easy to fake considering she didn't even post during the Day 1) or would have tried to distance herself from it in some other way.

Unvote

- I hope Tierce doesn't mind but I'm not really a fan of the Sakura wagon right now and I don't really have any strong scumreads at the moment. I want to spend a little time getting acquainted with Saki's and Andrius's meta and thinking about other things (namely, morph's play and the one content post ProHawk has) before dropping another vote down.

[morph the cat]

There are two things that Cabd most prides himself in the game of mafia: his scumgame, and his metadiving powers.

I object, I pride myself on my snark as well.

[Purpkin]

Nacho, please tell me you are trolling.

I'll be home in roughly two hours or so and I'll take a look at what has happened in the thread today

[morph the cat]

Wow, nice short day. Unfortunate that my random vote ended up getting lynched, but you are all chatter boxes.

Looking back at D1, TIP was an absurdly easy lynch due to changing meta and I am particularly concerned with the nonchalant push by Morph the Cat. Particularly this post:

Hi

Mara here

and I agree with TIP scum

Okay guys, no more hesitation. Run the fucker up.

Which takes zero consideration of TIP being a dynamic person in addition to using another players (Purpkin) read to strengthen a lynching position and posture. Morph's initial push was quite lack-luster as well.

VOTE: Morph the Cat

I also feel The Oil Guys' twilight posting to be disingenuous, I wouldn't mind starting there today either, but that could just be my lack of experience with them.

Also, because I am not familiar with everyone in the game it would make it a lot easier if you would refer to the slot by their name instead of the heads that make up the hydra. Just a pet-peeve of mine considering the hydra was made to play as a unit and not as separate people... but I am sure this request will be shunned and I will have to do additional work to check back with who is who when people use names not in the player list.

I was wondering how long it would take for your obligitory "scumread cabd" post. You are however skipping over several posts prior to that where if you note I voted and expressed being pretty damn certain. My only one hesitaiton would have been if mara had disagreed, because between her and I we have a (well, at the time, not anymore) perfect history of reading pope. She only re-affirmed my feelings, and I expressed that my last hesitations were gone.


~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Thankfully the hydras are pretty simple to remember:
Morph the Cat: ffery and cabd
Oil Tycoons: Nachomama and Syr
Jabberwocky: Empire and Tierce
Purpkin: Marangal and Borkie

[morph the cat]

Town

Oil Tycoons - basically conftown due to claim of eminent demise, bolstered by Nacho read. Syr usually pressures ffery more early on, though.

Leaning Town (more or less in order of read strength)

Purpkin - borktown as far as ffery is concerned. Cabd concurs re Mara. We cross-agree on them.

DTMaster - dayvig gambit (due to target mostly) was a good start in the town direction. Saki push looked town-motivated as did the back-off when OT claimed.

Natirasha - was leaning town anyway, but the confirmation of "don't know how it works" roles from OT bumps it up considerably.

Jaberwocky - leaning town with some reservations over interactions with us and Nacho. (Cabd reservations mostly, ffery is doing that thing about liking people who are suspicious of her)

Null

Andrius - Derphammer. Under observation. Maybe not giving his scum game enough credit

LLD - Cabd is bothered a little, not sure why. ffery is mostly convinced by Empire meta report. Meta dive to come.

Prohawk - ffery didn't like first post. Wasn't provocative/designed to move things out of RVS. Cabd thinks the early suspicion is typical of Prohawk when they play together and is not alignment indicative.

Saki - Not playing as much the risk-taker as ffery's town-Saki model would predict

Leaning Scum

Sakura Hana - level of involvement now that she's checked in is problematic

Daemon385 - pingy posts. Meta dive scheduled

[Vi]

~Vote Count V:

Owain

DTMaster (2) ~ Saki, Sakura Hana
Saki (2) ~ Purpkin, Andrius
Sakura Hana (1) ~ Oil Tycoons,

(Jabberwock)

morph the cat (1) ~ ProHawk

Not Voting:

Daemon385, Lady Lambdadelta, morph the cat, Natirasha, DTMaster, Jabberwock

--With 12 alive, it takes 7 to lynch.

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(95%)

14

[Natirasha]

I guess my numbers-increase-as-people-die theory was wrong Just kick a man while he's down.

[Saki]

VOTE: Sakura Hana

[Natirasha]

That settles it. I'm calling scum-Saki right now, I've seen this before. I typically don't "meta" people too hard, but holy shit, I think I've seen him do this exact same sequence of plays as a scum elsewhere(don't ask me for sources, I can't provide).

VOTE: Saki

[Saki]

Interesting. Another person in the thread is using the exact same reason ("general meta") to read me as town.

Might be scum reading easy lynches as town and hoping something sticks.

[Lady Lambdadelta]

I guess my numbers-increase-as-people-die theory was wrong Just kick a man while he's down.

What part of "the number passively increases" did you not understand when I told you this?

[ProHawk]

Why did my post take so long to be acknowledged/addressed by Morph the Cat? Why was my post construed as a me vs. Cabd, which it's not? What's the purpose of saying "your obligitory "scumread cabd" post"?

Honestly, my take is that its a

deflection

to discredit my read. By saying I always do something is saying that my vote has little/no meaning. Well, here is the fact: I am not scum-reading you specifically Cabd, you are playing in a hydra and my read of

your hydra's play

D1 is that you were the opportunistic scum. There was no attempt at you trying to figure out if TIP was scum or town, it was "oh, you failed to do this thing you normally do as town, you are auto-scum".

My only one hesitaiton would have been if mara had disagreed, because between her and I we have a (well, at the time, not anymore) perfect history of reading pope. She only re-affirmed my feelings, and I expressed that my last hesitations were gone.

Can you tell me why/where you town-read Purpkin to know they weren't leading you to a mis-lynch as scum?

Prohawk - ffery

didn't like first post. Wasn't provocative/designed to move things out of RVS

. Cabd thinks the early suspicion is typical of Prohawk when they play together and is not alignment indicative.

I call fake. What did you think about Purpkin's first post? Someone whom you obviously trusted enough to dispel all doubts about a lynch. What did you think about Lady Lambda's first post?

Nat also needs to die: 177 is a clear distance from the TIP lynch. With a town flip - he is distance man and supportive on the lynch. Scum trait. Qualifies for scum dat is off said wagon.

You realize you also could be considered the distance man as well right?

TOWN
purpkin
jabberwock <--- i worry about something but im not going to dwell on it for now

ffcabdy <--- worried bout ffery but I'll trust nacho's metareading

DTM <--- for srs, this guy townytown

prohawk <--- from what ive seen i like the slot

sakurahana <--- pending questions

What do you think about my vote Andrius? I noticed you quoted my post about The Cat but failed to comment on it.

Saki's posting less than usual for scum-him, but I have little experience in games with him. He's a natural heel in any case.

That settles it. I'm calling scum-Saki right now, I've seen this before. I typically don't "meta" people too hard, but holy shit, I think I've seen him do this exact same sequence of plays as a scum elsewhere(don't ask me for sources, I can't provide).

VOTE: Saki

These two posts don't equate at all. Going from I have little experience to Vote: I have seen this before but can't tell you where. Meta takes a lot of games and experience to be done properly.

[ProHawk]

Morph, why aren't you voting yet?

[morph the cat]

I call fake. What did you think about Purpkin's first post? Someone whom you obviously trusted enough to dispel all doubts about a lynch. What did you think about Lady Lambda's first post?

Aren't you opposed to RVS? I had that impression, which is why your "silky" post to TiP caught my attention.

[Saki]

@ph
would you trust sakura's metaread on me then? she has at least five games with me

[ProHawk]

Meta is weak IMO. It takes a lot of info to make a strong meta-case.

Who said I was opposed to RVS?

[Lady Lambdadelta]

I have a better question.

Why would you trust any Meta read on anyone? Like, I know you're all impressed by Empire's ability to use meta to his advantage, but the cold hard facts are that good scum players use their meta to their advantage. Anyone with a good self awareness of how they are perceived in games will be able to change up their play from game to game.

If you're going to use meta, it has to be in combination with context.

[morph the cat]

Morph, why aren't you voting yet?

Because I am not ready to vote.

It looks like the rest of your questions are directed to Cabd so I'll let him answer them.

[Jabberwock]

@ph
would you trust sakura's metaread on me then? she has at least five games with me

Erm, why are you asking ProHawk to trust the meta-read of a player you're voting?

[Saki]

ph mentioned that nat meta on me was bs
i asked him what sakura's metaread on me was

it doesnt matter whether sakura is scum or town she can read me

[morph the cat]

I call fake. What did you think about Purpkin's first post? Someone whom you obviously trusted enough to dispel all doubts about a lynch.

Let's get something straight, hawkie. The three way history between myself, TIP, and mara is such that if both mara and I scumread TIP, he's almost certainly scum. Even if one of us is also scum, we really can't fake the read, and so we'd bus. So even if mara was scum (which that slot is so obvtown it' crazy) I'd still trust her TIP read as genuine.

[morph the cat]

Meta is weak IMO. It takes a lot of info to make a strong meta-case.

Who said I was opposed to RVS?

Nobody said it. It's an impression I picked up in a recent game. I'll add this to my research list.

[ProHawk]

Oh how cute. Someone is so obv-town. How about you quantify that Sherlock.

[ProHawk]

But really, why not answer the question of why you thought Purp was obv-town instead of go into a rant on why Purp being scum or town would force you to read the same regardless?