Newbie 1391 - Game Over - FINALLY!!!

[Mr. Flay]

... dafuq is this game?

VOTE: Nachomamma8

[StubbsKVM]

VOTE: Nacho

I suppose this day'll end fast.

[Generic]

BAH!

Win this for me town.

[Mr. Flay]

Damnit Generic, you ruined our three-post Day.

[Nachomamma8]

[Nachomamma8]

i would love to be useful this day but i literally have no idea what the fuck is going on at this point. i feel great about flay and great about stubbs to the point where i would go with karnage in the end.

[Nachomamma8]

but honestly don't fucking lynch flay and you'll probably be alright

[champinoman]

Hmmmm.....

[champinoman]

Ok, I want to ask something of everyone before I vote. And I know Generic will give me a serving after this game is complete for saying this but I’m willing to risk that

Timeline if we follow current plan

We win if Nacho is scum
-OR-
TownNacho is lynched and I am subsequently NK’d leaving us with 3 people at LyLo with no confirmed townies.

My current thinking

We don’t lynch Nacho yet *ducks for cover* and we give him another lynch.
Now going with worst case scenario let us assume we lynch another townie. That leaves us with 4 going into the night.
Now from here there are 2 possible night outcomes:

1) Scum kills: I would assume that they will kill a confirmed townie. Therefore we enter into day 6 with 3 alive including a confirmed townie.

Better odds than current plan

2) No NK: We enter day 6 with 4 alive. There are 2 possible reasons for this:
a. Nacho is Scum.
b. Scum no killed.
Now in day 6 with 4 alive we can’t lynch Nacho. Because if we do and we are wrong then we lose. However, if Nacho is scum this doesn’t matter because we can lynch him next. Effectively we treat this day as 2 confirmed townies (Nacho and Myself), leaving 2 possible lynch candidates.

Better odds than current plan

.

I know if Nacho ends up flipping town then we have wasted a lot of time, but I can’t help but think ‘what if...’. The only thing we have to lose is time by doing it this way.

So, thoughts? Abuse is also expected.

Please let me know if anything is unclear.

[Mr. Flay]

UNVOTE: Nacho to talk a moment.

Now in day 6 with 4 alive we can’t lynch Nacho.

4p 3:1 is MyLo. You either have to No Lynch or flip the coin. No Lynch leads to stalemate or (if scum kill) 3p endgame like the current plan, so forget that unless I miss something.

If you flip the coin:

1. If we lynch scum, we win.
   
2. If we lynch town, someone dies overnight and it's 1:1. Scum win.

But it's not a 50% chance, because

Nacho can still be scum

. The only way this plan benefits us is... if Nacho is scum!

[Mr. Flay]

tl;dr: The point was never to get to endgame with confirmed townies. It was to leverage the CHANCE that Nacho is Town and get the optimal number of lynches out of the game, which we've done.

[champinoman]

I'm not saying we are trying to get to endgame with confirmed townies, however having them increases the chance of hitting scum in the event that it is a coin flip decision.

But if we lynch Nacho today and he flips town, then day 6 (with 3p 2:1) we have a 33% chance of hitting scum.
At 4p 3:1 we have increased the odds to 50% (excluding myself and Nacho from calculations).

[*]If we lynch town, someone dies overnight and it's 1:1. Scum win.[/list]But it's not a 50% chance, because

Nacho can still be scum

. The only way this plan benefits us is... if Nacho is scum!

If the one person left other than Nacho and Myself is the last scum then there is no way we were going to win anyway. But at least this way we have given ourselves the best chance of winning.
If Nacho is scum then he dies in D7.

It's all about minimizing risks. We are gaining extra lynches whilst not losing anything. If scum has been playing us the fool by not killing at night then they have just made the game harder for themselves but giving us more opportunities.

[champinoman]

tl;dr: The point was never to get to endgame with confirmed townies. It was to leverage the CHANCE that Nacho is Town and get the optimal number of lynches out of the game, which we've done.

I still think there is more leverage to be done without losing anything.

[Mr. Flay]

I don't understand your strategy then. I guess I'll think on it after dinner.

[Karnage]

If we lynch somebody other than Nacho we have 3 townies and 1 scum. If scum kills (prob champ) they confirm nacho as town and we go into tomorrow with 2 townies (1 confirmed) and 1 scum. 50/50 chance of lynching scum and winning.

If scum no kills we have 3 townies (1 confirmed) and 1 scum. We are at 33% chance of lynching scum and winning. If nacho isn't scum we are at mylo. So we no lynch? if scum kills we are at 50/50 like before. If they no kill we either lynch nacho or we no lynch/no kill until happily ever after?
If nacho is scum and we mislynch. we go into the next day at mylo and we have to lynch nacho?

If we lynch nacho today (and he is town), champ is killed tonight and it's lylo between me, stubbs, and flay.

i'm not sure the best course of action. i'm leaning toward lynching nacho today.

[champinoman]

When all else fails, a flow chart is required

So as you can see from the chart. We gain an extra lynch by not lynching Nacho today.
Does this explain it better?

[Mr. Flay]

I'm not saying we are trying to get to endgame with confirmed townies, however having them increases the chance of hitting scum in the event that it is a coin flip decision.

But if we lynch Nacho today and he flips town, then day 6 (with 3p 2:1) we have a 33% chance of hitting scum.
At 4p 3:1 we have increased the odds to 50% (excluding myself and Nacho from calculations).

[*]If we lynch town, someone dies overnight and it's 1:1. Scum win.[/list]But it's not a 50% chance, because

Nacho can still be scum

. The only way this plan benefits us is... if Nacho is scum!

If the one person left other than Nacho and Myself is the last scum then there is no way we were going to win anyway. But at least this way we have given ourselves the best chance of winning.
If Nacho is scum then he dies in D7.

It's all about minimizing risks. We are gaining extra lynches whilst not losing anything. If scum has been playing us the fool by not killing at night then they have just made the game harder for themselves but giving us more opportunities.

I don't think you understand me in 784. The 'coinflip' only works if Nacho is Town. But we do not, CAN NOT know he is Town until he's dead, or you are (actually even your death won't assure it, but close enough for government work). Until then all lynches are suspect, just like usual.

[champinoman]

The 'coinflip' only works if Nacho is Town. But we do not, CAN NOT know he is Town until he's dead, or you are (actually even your death won't assure it, but close enough for government work). Until then all lynches are suspect, just like usual.

I think we should all be considering Nacho town during lynches that aren't involving him. Leave his lynch until the last possible moment. This way if scum are trying to make us lynch him they have to keep wasting their night kill. Force scum to do something.

[Mr. Flay]

You're not making them 'waste' anything though. The chances don't significantly change down the line... it's about 67% either way.

[Mr. Flay]

For Town I mean. working on a revision of your chart.

[champinoman]

I don't understand how you can say the chances don't change.

In both scenarios I won't get lynched, so exclude me.
In both scenarios Nacho gets lynched at some point, so exclude him.

If we lynch Nacho today we get 1 lynch with the remaining 3 townies meaning a 33% chance of hitting scum.
If we don't lynch nacho today we get 2 lynches with the 3 remaining townies meaning a 66% chance of hitting scum.

1 extra lynch effectively doubles our chance of winning if Nacho is town. And if he isn't we still are 100% to win.

[Mr. Flay]

Okay so apparently I'm REALLY rusty at probability. Anyway, Branch NachoScum has a 66.6666% chance of hitting scum. Branch EndlessGame has a 74%* chance of hitting scum overall, but that first lynch has a

much

lesser chance at this point, given the gamestate.

To wit:

Why would nonNacho scum continue to No Kill last Night?

Killing champino would have netted a 4p MyLo with almostConfTownNacho, like I said earlier. We can either No Lynch, which just puts us in 3p LyLo with no confirmed Town, or take the 33% chance of hitting scum in MyLo.

Why would nonNacho scum not take those odds over a 2/3 or greater chance of autoloss, AND a continued degradation of their ability to control the game?!?

For that reason, I still think Branch 1 is the best option. It's the only thing that makes sense; NachoScum's only hope is demoralizing the Town through and endless series of bad lynches. I'll wait for someone to doublecheck my math before revoting.

[Mr. Flay]

All that and I forgot to post the image!



* The 75% becomes 74% because there's a tiny, TINY chance that scum nokills that night to force us to lynch NachoTown. In fact it's pretty much their best bet, so it's probably a greater reduction than 1%, but it's not strict probability so fuckit.

[champinoman]

For that reason, I still think Branch 1 is the best option.

Can you please confirm which one 'Branch 1' is? Based on what you said I think you mean the branch that doesn't lynch Nacho, but I'm not sure.

* The 75% becomes 74% because there's a tiny, TINY chance that scum nokills that night to force us to lynch NachoTown. In fact it's pretty much their best bet, so it's probably a greater reduction than 1%, but it's not strict probability so fuckit.

I don't see why they'd bother. A simple night kill would win it for them.

[champinoman]

I think the easiest way to look at this is that if we lynch Nacho today we need 1 mislynch to lose. However if we don't lynch him today we need 2 mislynches to lose.