In post 6190, Elyse wrote:Well if scum all claim VT, that would make the lynch pool down to eight players.
That's not happening. It probably is going to be a breakdown of
7x VT (two scum)
4x Doc (one scum - the strongman claim)
1x Cop
1x Vig
As claiming cop/vig is suicide - meaning one confirmed town sees day four
Doc AB on Cop
Doc CD on Vig (note the 50% chance of where scum ends up swings this hard, they may have a small plus if the scum is drawn to the cop)
D1 VT pool lynch
N1 Cop dies, VT pool vig
D2 at (worst case) - Vig, 4x Doc, 5x VT claim (two scum), VT pool lynch
N2 Doc dies
D3 at (worst case) - Vig, 3x Doc, 4x VT claim (two scum)
N3 Doc dies (vig dies Doc C/D confirmed scum), VT pool vig
D4 at (worst case) - Vig, 2x Doc (one scum), 2x VT (scum win)
So unless im missing something scum needs to dodge five straight shots as all of their kills are forced
If all scum claims VT... you have 4 mislynches to win as scum in this setup
At all scum claiming VT there are 5 available
the vig/cop will drop that to 4 (vig N1/3 shot, cop clear - no obvious win for scum as both results garner same response, I think getting rid of vig is better though as it forces it cleaner)
So scum basically have to get every single lynch possible to win this way.
Town just clears too much out the gate by claiming. Scum having kills forced in open setups isn't always bad. When they have to dodge this many mislynches though it is.