Newbie 1391 - Game Over - FINALLY!!!

[Mr. Flay]

Can you please confirm which one 'Branch 1' is? Based on what you said I think you mean the branch that doesn't lynch Nacho, but I'm not sure.

No, I mean the leftmost branch, the one you read first...the one where we lynch Nacho today.

I know you think the extra lynch is good, and based on the graph it's slightly better.. But I don't think it's THAT much better, and it makes NO sense in the larger context of the game. Conversely it makes PERFECT sense for NachoScum.

I don't see why they'd bother. A simple night kill would win it for them.

Can't kill if you block them. Again, it's a tiny chance, but it's nonzero.

[champinoman]

Can you please respond directly to this post Flay:

I don't understand how you can say the chances don't change.

In both scenarios I won't get lynched, so exclude me.
In both scenarios Nacho gets lynched at some point, so exclude him.

If we lynch Nacho today we get 1 lynch with the remaining 3 townies meaning a 33% chance of hitting scum.
If we don't lynch nacho today we get 2 lynches with the 3 remaining townies meaning a 66% chance of hitting scum.

1 extra lynch effectively doubles our chance of winning if Nacho is town. And if he isn't we still are 100% to win.

Excluding all of the math and probability you have done in your other posts can you please share an opinion on this post. Tell me which parts are correct and which parts are incorrect.

[Mr. Flay]

You're not counting enough coins. There's six coins in the Left Branch (50% Nacho is Scum, plus 1/3 for the second lynch), which gives a 3/4 chance of hitting scum. There's 24 coins in the Right Branch (8/8, 5/8, and 5/8), which gives a 3/4 chance of hitting scum, BUT you have to ignore the game history to go with that argument.

Excluding Nacho distorts the odds. If you weren't Confirmed Town, I'd be suspicious of your motives here.

[Mr. Flay]

*scratches head* If champino is a Roleblocker, I suppose we could be in Column A still, and that would make his press for Right Branch make more sense, too...

But it's getting late, and I'm getting paranoid.

[Mr. Flay]

Nevermind, I'm insane.(ly tired).

[champinoman]

You're not counting enough coins. There's six coins in the Left Branch (50% Nacho is Scum, plus 1/3 for the second lynch), which gives a 3/4 chance of hitting scum. There's 24 coins in the Right Branch (8/8, 5/8, and 5/8), which gives a 3/4 chance of hitting scum, BUT you have to ignore the game history to go with that argument.

Excluding Nacho distorts the odds. If you weren't Confirmed Town, I'd be suspicious of your motives here.

If Nacho is scum then this game is a town win. Period.

So my odds are based on the fact that he is town. Therefore you need to exclude him. I'm trying to create the best possible chance to find scum in the event that Nacho isn't scum.

So I repeat, do you see any flaw in my logic in said post?

[Mr. Flay]

There's six coins in the Left Branch (50% Nacho is Scum, plus 1/3 for the second lynch), which gives a 4/6 chance of hitting scum.

Fixed.

[champinoman]

There's six coins in the Left Branch (50% Nacho is Scum, plus 1/3 for the second lynch), which gives a 4/6 chance of hitting scum.

Fixed.

Your interpretation of the probability is incorrect.

The chance we hit scum is a pure and simple 50%.

Simple Math: There are 4 unconfirmed townies and we get 2 shots at it.

More complex: First try we have a 25% of being correct with the Nacho lynch. Now, in the 75% chance that Nacho wasn't scum, we get another try with odds at 33.3%. Combining the odds is 25% (first attempt) + 25% (33% x 0.75) = 50%

[Mr. Flay]

I may be wrong in the probabilities, but that doesn't explain why nonScumNacho would continue to No Kill. Their chances were much better with 4p MyLo.

[champinoman]

I may be wrong in the probabilities, but that doesn't explain why nonScumNacho would continue to No Kill. Their chances were much better with 4p MyLo.

I agree. My first thought was that we are clearly dealing with a newbie scum who didn’t do the math. My 2nd thought was that we are dealing with an experienced scum that wanted to present the newbieScum argument in MyLo. WIFOM all the way.

Or another reason they didn't kill last night was that they took my bait:

Well the 1 reason I can think of for mafia not to kill last night would be to eliminate the bulletproof PR from the game. If I was blocked and Nacho was targeted then he is now a VT because he is only a 1 shot bulletproof. It allows for more flexibility later in the game.

Suddenly your version of events is possible:

To wit:

Why would nonNacho scum continue to No Kill last Night?

Killing champino would have netted a 4p MyLo with almostConfTownNacho, like I said earlier. We can either No Lynch, which just puts us in 3p LyLo with no confirmed Town, or take the 33% chance of hitting scum in MyLo.

Why would nonNacho scum not take those odds over a 2/3 or greater chance of autoloss, AND a continued degradation of their ability to control the game?!?

It's hard to get to a 3p LyLo without night killing a bulletproof now isn't it Flay?

[champinoman]

Actually, 3p LyLo is possible without killing the bulletproof however it increases the chance of scum getting lynched in LyLo.

[champinoman]

Ignore #810, I was correct the first time. Flay said "which just puts us in 3p LyLo

with no confirmed Town

", so the bulletproof comment still stands.

[StubbsKVM]

That was all way too complicated to follow.

Why are we not lynching Nacho again??

[Nachomamma8]

But I don't think it's THAT much better, and it makes NO sense in the larger context of the game.

Who are you lynching in Stubbs-You-Karnage lylo after I flip town?
This question goes out to all three of you.

[Nachomamma8]

That was all way too complicated to follow.

Why are we not lynching Nacho again??

The possibility of gaining another lynch.

[StubbsKVM]

UNVOTE:

Ok I read it again and it seems to make sense. I'm game.

[StubbsKVM]

But I don't think it's THAT much better, and it makes NO sense in the larger context of the game.

Who are you lynching in Stubbs-You-Karnage lylo after I flip town?
This question goes out to all three of you.

Flay

[Mr. Flay]

I'd vote Stubbs first, unsurprisingly. There's not enough going against Karnage/Stranger to build a good case, which is the sort of PoE clear that worries me. With Right Branch I don't have to choose though, because everybody gets lynched in the end except one, which I'm obviously hoping is me.

But I think there's a flaw in the plan.

(and yes, I'm talking about more than my shitty latenight math) According to the graph, Nacho does NOT get lynched in every scenario. Very middle of the chart, there's a Day Six 3p LyLo with Nacho as 'confirmed' Town. But if he lives that long and champino is dead, he's STILL NOT CONFIRMED. Why?

	A	B	C
1	Town Jailkeeper	Vanilla Townie	Mafia Goon
2	Mafia Roleblocker	Town Cop	Town Doctor
3	Town 1-shot Bulletproof	Mafia Goon	Town Tracker

NachoScum means we're in Row1, right (otherscum means we're in ColA)? That means that after the N1 missed kill he could have been setting up a ColA claim all along... it's the exact opposite of his position on the chart (C1), and because he was blocked he knows what setup we're in. So worrying about Doctor and Tracker goes out the window... Nacho is sophisticated enough to play the long game on this. I'm not actually saying it's

likely

, but it is why he is Never Confirmed Town Until Dead.

Now, in Left Branch, we learn very quickly what the actual roles are in the game, and go into LyLo with that. Otherwise I solemnly swear that I will be unsurprised when we end up in the middle of the graph...

[champinoman]

Pre post #817 I was wanting a Stubbs lynch.
Now I want a Flay lynch.

[Nachomamma8]

NachoScum means we're in Row1, right (otherscum means we're in ColA)? That means that after the N1 missed kill he could have been setting up a ColA claim all along... it's the exact opposite of his position on the chart (C1), and because he was blocked he knows what setup we're in.

If my kill is stopped, I know that there's a doctor, bulletproof, or jailkeeper which tells me zero new information that is useless even if I did get it BECAUSE:

But if he lives that long and champino is dead, he's STILL NOT CONFIRMED. Why?

If champino dies blocking me then I am confirmed town, unless VRK is one of those mods who likes giving the scum a one-shot strongman when they haven't gotten a successful kill in a while.

[Mr. Flay]

If champino dies blocking me then I am confirmed town, unless VRK is one of those mods who likes giving the scum a one-shot strongman when they haven't gotten a successful kill in a while.

Eh, I suppose you're right. And I have faith in VRK's integrity, I'm just still under some lingering confusion from that JK-RB thing.

3 lynches it is. But for the love of all that is holy, can you two put the pedal down this time? I'm going on vacation for 10 days in less than a week, and would at least like to be done with D5 by then...

[Mr. Flay]

Pre post #817 I was wanting a Stubbs lynch.
Now I want a Flay lynch.

Why? Because I post stupid things when tired?

Nothing I said is scummy, just dumb logic.

[champinoman]

My lynch preference was always Stubbs, Flay ( a close 2nd), Karnage (a distant 3rd).

Stubbs came in and read what had been posted and agreed that gaining an extra lynch is a good thing. Pretty standard response I would say.

Flay however, this is your day so far:

tl;dr: The point was never to get to endgame with confirmed townies. It was to leverage the CHANCE that Nacho is Town and get the optimal number of lynches out of the game, which we've done.

- Getting to endgame with a confirmed townie increases the odds of lynching scum. So keeping confTown alive is a pretty good aim.
- My proposal continues to leverage Nacho and we are able to consider him an honorary townie for the time being.
- My proposal even allows for an addition lynch. Which in your words above “is a good thing”.

But we do not, CAN NOT know he is Town until he's dead, or you are (actually even your death won't assure it, but close enough for government work).

- Unless you consider me an incompetent fool who can’t jail him every night then he will be a confirmed townie when I die. Stop murkying the waters.

You're not making them 'waste' anything though. The chances don't significantly change down the line... it's about 67% either way.

- You’ve conceded that your probability is out but it still needs to be noted that you tried to argue that it made no difference if we lynched Nacho today or not.

Okay so apparently I'm REALLY rusty at probability. Anyway, Branch NachoScum has a 66.6666% chance of hitting scum. Branch EndlessGame has a 74%* chance of hitting scum overall, but that first lynch has a

much

lesser chance at this point, given the gamestate.

To wit:

Why would nonNacho scum continue to No Kill last Night?

Killing champino would have netted a 4p MyLo with almostConfTownNacho, like I said earlier. We can either No Lynch, which just puts us in 3p LyLo with no confirmed Town, or take the 33% chance of hitting scum in MyLo.

Why would nonNacho scum not take those odds over a 2/3 or greater chance of autoloss, AND a continued degradation of their ability to control the game?!?

For that reason, I still think Branch 1 is the best option. It's the only thing that makes sense; NachoScum's only hope is demoralizing the Town through and endless series of bad lynches. I'll wait for someone to doublecheck my math before revoting.

- You clearly state that not lynching Nacho has a better chance of catching scum (paragraph 1) and then decide that Branch 1 (lynching Nacho) is the better way to proceed.
- Your argument to support this, considering math has been put aside, is gamestate. However, Nacho gets lynched in both scenarios so it is an irrelevant argument to make.
- Not sure how NachoScum can demoralize us considering his lynch is always in the plan no matter which way we go.

I know you think the extra lynch is good, and based on the graph it's slightly better.. But I don't think it's THAT much better, and it makes NO sense in the larger context of the game. Conversely it makes PERFECT sense for NachoScum.

- Are you actually trying to convince us that an extra lynch under the control of town is not beneficial? I’ve even shown the math that in the event of Nacho being town that this extra lynch doubles our chance of winning. DOUBLES. 33% -> 66%.
- Nacho, to repeat again, is a dead scum walking. How does this makes perfect sense?

I don't see why they'd bother. A simple night kill would win it for them.

Can't kill if you block them. Again, it's a tiny chance, but it's nonzero.

- Continuing to add confusion into a simple conversation. If that path is taken it is impossible for me to jail a roleblocker.

Excluding Nacho distorts the odds. If you weren't Confirmed Town, I'd be suspicious of your motives here.

- Trying to cast doubt on what I am saying even though I am confirmed town. Certainly didn’t expect this twist. If I wasn’t confirmed town: name one thing I have said that is scummy? I’m not advocating for Nacho’s survival, I’m just saying it doesn’t have to be his lynch right away.

But I think there's a flaw in the plan.

(and yes, I'm talking about more than my shitty latenight math) According to the graph, Nacho does NOT get lynched in every scenario. Very middle of the chart, there's a Day Six 3p LyLo with Nacho as 'confirmed' Town. But if he lives that long and champino is dead, he's STILL NOT CONFIRMED. Why?

	A	B	C
1	Town Jailkeeper	Vanilla Townie	Mafia Goon
2	Mafia Roleblocker	Town Cop	Town Doctor
3	Town 1-shot Bulletproof	Mafia Goon	Town Tracker

NachoScum means we're in Row1, right (otherscum means we're in ColA)? That means that after the N1 missed kill he could have been setting up a ColA claim all along... it's the exact opposite of his position on the chart (C1), and because he was blocked he knows what setup we're in. So worrying about Doctor and Tracker goes out the window... Nacho is sophisticated enough to play the long game on this. I'm not actually saying it's

likely

, but it is why he is Never Confirmed Town Until Dead.

- We’ve covered this before. You are really pushing hard to convince us that if I die that Nacho is still not confirmed town. You know this is not true.

I'd vote Stubbs first, unsurprisingly. There's not enough going against Karnage/Stranger to build a good case, which is the sort of PoE clear that worries me. With Right Branch I don't have to choose though, because everybody gets lynched in the end except one, which I'm obviously hoping is me.

- If you want to be the last alive then you need to present a case that shows both Stubbs and Karnage to be more scummier than yourself. As it stands, I believe you want us to lynch Nacho today because then you only have to convince us that one of Stubbs/Karnage is more scummier than you.

Now, in Left Branch, we learn very quickly what the actual roles are in the game, and go into LyLo with that. Otherwise I solemnly swear that I will be unsurprised when we end up in the middle of the graph...

- Planning to kill tonight to make sure this scenario plays out?
- What’s wrong with a 3p LyLo including a confirmed townie? Seems better than a 3p LyLo with no confirmed townies to me.

3 lynches it is. But for the love of all that is holy, can you two put the pedal down this time? I'm going on vacation for 10 days in less than a week, and would at least like to be done with D5 by then...

Fine then,
VOTE: Mr. Flay

[Mr. Flay]

So your entire argument boils down to an hour or two of bad math. Got it.

Also, you are COMPLETELY ignoring my question about why nonNacho Scum would let the game get to its current state. That is the 'gamestate' factor that you are completely ignoring in your quest to make this a probability game. It's not. It's a logic game and the course of action that leads to nonNacho scum makes NO SENSE.

So yes, lynch me, lynch somebody, then lynch Nacho. I'm confident I'll be right in the end, and if not, hey, I still have a 74% chance of winning!

[Mr. Flay]

- What’s wrong with a 3p LyLo including a confirmed townie? Seems better than a 3p LyLo with no confirmed townies to me.

Why would scum POSSIBLY give you that chance?? All you've done is give them a roadmap for how to win with your graph?