NY 164: Maniacal Street Mafia (Anticlimatically finished.)

PeregrineV · Post Post #5775 (ISO) » Mon Aug 19, 2013 5:33 am

In post 5770, penguin_alien wrote:PV, why do you think scum would NK someone who keeps getting wagoned up?

Because despite those wagons, the lynch isn't happening. But, a Bulba kill would also happen if Bulba was putting hard pressure on scum.

PeregrineV · Post Post #5776 (ISO) » Mon Aug 19, 2013 5:36 am

In post 5771, Bulbazak wrote:
In post 5769, PeregrineV wrote: We just finished Amruika Mafia, where I was scum and you did a great job catching me, but were unable to get your case pushed through all the way. I feel like you are at a similar situation here. The fact there are 2 scumteams and neither has deemed you killworthy (ThAd notwithstanding) means that, if town, your cases have been on town.
Didn't you push me as scum the entire time in that game and keep me around for Lylo?

We pushed you for scum because we didn't push ourselves, and the other players looked more townie than you.

Also, there were always better NKs than you (Doc, IC, townish hydra). So you going to lylo was either incidental or by Gorgon's design.

I mainly bring up that game because you were town there, and want comparisons to your game here.

Baezu · Post Post #5777 (ISO) » Mon Aug 19, 2013 6:01 am

Happy scum day, P_A!

Bulbazak · Post Post #5778 (ISO) » Mon Aug 19, 2013 6:25 am

In post 5775, PeregrineV wrote:
In post 5770, penguin_alien wrote:PV, why do you think scum would NK someone who keeps getting wagoned up?
Because despite those wagons, the lynch isn't happening. But, a Bulba kill would also happen if Bulba was putting hard pressure on scum.

It depends on the scum. I know that I personally don't kill those who are suspicious of me when I'm scum, as I view it to be a bad move. Maybe I could see scum killing me if I had the clout to make the lynch happen, but it seems that I do not, as people tend to ignore me when I go after a scumspect. I would actually think killing me would draw more attention than leaving me alive. But then again, anything having to do with night actions tends to be WIFOM.

In post 5776, PeregrineV wrote:
In post 5771, Bulbazak wrote:
In post 5769, PeregrineV wrote: We just finished Amruika Mafia, where I was scum and you did a great job catching me, but were unable to get your case pushed through all the way. I feel like you are at a similar situation here. The fact there are 2 scumteams and neither has deemed you killworthy (ThAd notwithstanding) means that, if town, your cases have been on town.
Didn't you push me as scum the entire time in that game and keep me around for Lylo?
We pushed you for scum because we didn't push ourselves, and the other players looked more townie than you.

Also, there were always better NKs than you (Doc, IC, townish hydra). So you going to lylo was either incidental or by Gorgon's design.

I mainly bring up that game because you were town there, and want comparisons to your game here.

The only comparison I can make is that I feel like I'm in a similar position this game than I was in that one. I feel as if I'm being largely ignored by town while scum continue to push me in one way or another until I'm either lynched or am too much trouble to keep around anymore. This game is also draining me in the same way that Amurika Mafia did, where sometimes it's a struggle just to keep playing, and I continue to do so, simply because I'm stubborn.

ffullisade · Post Post #5779 (ISO) » Mon Aug 19, 2013 7:03 am

How anyone could be reading bulbazak as scum at this point boggles my mind.

I am going to miss your old avatar.

Bulbazak · Post Post #5780 (ISO) » Mon Aug 19, 2013 7:23 am

It will probably return eventually. Until then, care to join me?

mastin2 · Post Post #5781 (ISO) » Mon Aug 19, 2013 8:11 am

Human Destroyer is at L-2!

In post 5777, Baezu wrote:Happy scum day, P_A!

One-Hundred-Fifty-Third Votecount

:

(Eleventh Votecount of Day Five,

AKA, the "Happy Online-Birthday!" votecount.

)

Human Destroyer - 5 (Nachomamma8, ffullisade, Cephrir, Desperado, Baezu)

CrashTextDummie - 2 (Bulbazak, ThAdmiral)

PeregrineV - 1 (Amethyst Kitty)
Baezu - 1 (Human Destroyer)
ThAdmiral - 1 (PeregrineV)

Not Voting - 2 (penguin_alien, CrashTextDummie)

With

12

alive, it is

7

to lynch.

Day Five's deadline is Thursday, August 22nd, @ 12:30 PM PST, which is in (expired on 2013-08-22 12:30:00).

If deadline were to hit now,

Human Destroyer

would be lynched.

Spoiler: Changes from last votecount

Last votecount was page 230, post 5725.

Spoiler: Player Vote History D4

Spoiler: Vote History D4

PeregrineV · Post Post #5782 (ISO) » Mon Aug 19, 2013 8:57 am

@Bulba-

Run me down a scenario of blue and red remaining, IYO, if there are 2 teams of 3.

Then repeat for 2 teams of 4.

Baezu · Post Post #5783 (ISO) » Mon Aug 19, 2013 9:08 am

In post 5779, ffullisade wrote:How anyone could be reading bulbazak as scum at this point boggles my mind.

I am going to miss your old avatar.

I agree on both of those points

penguin_alien · Post Post #5784 (ISO) » Mon Aug 19, 2013 2:15 pm

In post 5777, Baezu wrote:Happy scum day, P_A!

Thanks, and

thanks to you too, mastin2!

OK, so today things have gone from plurality wanting to lynch a specific neighbor to a plurality wanting to lynch a specific non-neighbor. As much as that speed wagon worked yesterday, it was a near thing.

So, here's what I see as some pretty likely premises to work from:

A) There is likely a blue scum in the neighborhoods.
B) It remains possible that a third blue scum is the final blue scum, and eliminating that faction takes away a NK, giving us breathing room.
C) If we lynch the right neighbor, we likely have three nearly-confirmed townies.
D) From C), it follows that if we lynch the wrong neighbor we're doing scum's work for them.
E) There are multiple scum outside the neighborhoods; lynching somewhere there remains viable.
F) The majority of those voting are voting outside the neighborhoods, as is the most likely to be town neighbor Desperado.

Having said that, can people weigh in on whether they think we're better off lynching from the neighborhoods or not and whether I'm missing any glaring points in my premises?

My take, and my thinking has shifted over the course of the day, is that the reward of lynching in the neighborhoods outweighs the risks. I can still see either ThAd or CTD as the neighborhood scum.

Bulbazak · Post Post #5785 (ISO) » Mon Aug 19, 2013 5:45 pm

In post 5782, PeregrineV wrote:
@Bulba-
Run me down a scenario of blue and red remaining, IYO, if there are 2 teams of 3.

Then repeat for 2 teams of 4.

2 teams of 3:

Blue - CTD
Red - One of HD and Baezu. I originally thought that they were scumpartners, but HD's recent attacks on Baezu has started to make me doubt that. If you put a gun to my head, I might pick AK.

2 teams of 4:

Blue - CTD and PA. She appeared to soft defend Thez on d2, and that stuck out for me at the time and made me think that she could possibly be blue. The only other thing that sticks out scum-wise for me is BS's crappy Nacho case d1, which seemed awfully stretched to me. PA has given me more of a town vibe recently, though, so I may be way off here. Outside chance that HD might be blue scum for similar, albeit more subtle, reasons.

Red - One of HD/Baezu, as explained above. After that, I don't know. Maybe AK. Maybe Ffullisade. Maybe Cephrir. We're really getting into the realm of my townreads here, so I can't really give a solid answer. Really, I'd probably see what one of HD/Baezu flipped and reevaluate from there. To be honest, before I'd give another red scum read, I'd need to go through ISOs side by side with Seanald's. There's also still the chance that both HD and Baezu are red scum, which means that I'm not wrong about my townreads, but I doubt it.

To be honest, I'd rather lynch CTD-scum, get the information from the flip and the NK, and then go from there.

Is there a point to these questions? Because they seem strange, and they're making me very uncomfortable.

ThAdmiral · Post Post #5786 (ISO) » Mon Aug 19, 2013 9:10 pm

I like your reads bulba

Nachomamma8 · Post Post #5787 (ISO) » Mon Aug 19, 2013 11:17 pm

In post 5754, CrashTextDummie wrote:
Unvote

Need to regroup. I have a couple hours to reread tomorrow.

I'm looking forward to this!

In post 5758, Human Destroyer wrote:no one on my wagon has actually voiced suspicion before this game day (except maybe Nacho idr for sure, but I'm 99% sure no one else has).

Remind me why this matters?

In post 5759, Human Destroyer wrote:Alright, maybe I'll word this differently.

He only tries to get on my good side as scum, never as town.

This means something different. Not to mention:

Bacde wrote:
Vote: Mastin

look at this guys I'm sheeping HD

I never thought it would happen
but it is

He ended up working with you for pretty much the entire of the time he was alive. Would you like to word it differently again?

In post 5760, penguin_alien wrote:Then too, I'm not following what Nachomamma8 is saying here:

Bulbazak and I were talking about neighborhood interactions. My position was wrong and I will explain that shortly.

In post 5767, PeregrineV wrote:Is there an actual Human Destroyer case from the 5 HD voters? My biggest scum indicators came more from his hydra and Om's plays, although his play this game has been subpar.

His push on Baezu, especially when his push on Bacde is not something he explored while Bacde was alive and now he somehow has some meta reason for finding Bacde scum that has already been proven wrong a couple of times.

In post 5772, Amethyst Kitty wrote:I'll be out for a few days

~mara

Where has Mala been?

In post 5785, Bulbazak wrote:To be honest, I'd rather lynch CTD-scum, get the information from the flip and the NK, and then go from there.

I could agree with you on this point, maybe.

<<< Double-post deleted. >>>

Nachomamma8 · Post Post #5788 (ISO) » Mon Aug 19, 2013 11:52 pm

If we assume both teams are balanced...

11. Red Ryu, Blue Mafia Ninja, shot Night One.
1. thezmon221, Blue Mafia Goon, Lynched Day Two.
17. Seanald, Red Mafia Doctor-Neighbor

Red Mafia is pretty much guaranteed to have a goon. It is guaranteed the someone has a roleblocker. Right now, I lean towards blue scum having a roleblocker; Ninja does nothing but counter the watcher but makes the goon weaker while doctor counters the rolecop AND the watcher if scum-doc is protecting the strong member of his scumteam AND the other scumteam AND the vigilante, meaning that last red role will likely be something comparable in power, maybe rolecop or some shit, doesn't really matter.

There IS another scum in the neighborhood for fairness's sake, and it's not ThAd. It's probably CTD since (Townie-Scum PR, Townie-Scum PR, Townie-Town PR) makes a hell of a lot more sense than (Townie-Townie, Townie-Scum PR, ScumPR-Town PR). Meaning it is important that we aim for scum in the neighborhood since we have a pretty good chance of hitting scum there, hitting the roleblocker will free up ThAd for an actual vig shot (preferably on HD), meaning hitting bluescum gives us the potential of 5 mislynches to work with, which would be the maximum. If CTD flips town, it means that the scumteams are NOT symmetric, which would be strange but could be sorted through. We'd lose the potential for an extra mislynch, but that's not a horribly huge deal since we'd have a 1v1 with ThAd still being decently likely town.

Unlocking the potential for 5 mislynches would be pretty sick, considering it would mean PV-ThAd would be masons and the remaining lynch pool would be:
3. Cephir
4. Nachomamma8
7. Bacde
9. Bulbazak
13. Desperado
14. penguin_alien
21. Amethyst Kitty (Malakittens+MS Marangal)
22. ffullisade (fferylit+pirate mollie)
23. Human Destroyer

...which only needs 4 solid townreads to advance.

Cephrir suspects AK and HD as red-scum.
I suspect HD and Cephrir as red-scum.
Baezu suspects HD as red-scum, second looks like me?
Bulba suspects Baezu and HD as red-scum.
Desperado suspects HD-AK as red-scum.
PA suspects Baezu, maybe still HD.
AK suspects HD and Ceph I guess?
ffullisade suspects HD and ?
HD suspects Baezu and whoever the fuck

My personal 4 strong townreads are any 4 from ffullisade, Bulbazak, Desperado, and penguin_alien. AK and Baezu probably aren't scum either but there's some backlash against them, meaning that they don't make sense as the CORE TOWN. That means that it would be possible for me, HD, AK, Baezu, and Cephrir can all go down and if there's one scum in there and somehow not two you somehow get to take a dip into the town core 4 which shouldn't be ffullisade or Bulbazak under any circumstances.

Nachomamma8 · Post Post #5789 (ISO) » Mon Aug 19, 2013 11:56 pm

Vote: CrashTextDummie

I'm been steadily leaning to follow Bulbazak today, and now I've fallen for him.

mastin2 · Post Post #5790 (ISO) » Tue Aug 20, 2013 10:26 am

<<< Less than two days until the deadline for day five hits. >>>

ThAdmiral · Post Post #5791 (ISO) » Tue Aug 20, 2013 10:33 am

CTD is the play today people. HD is a bit of a compromise lynch.

Even if he flips town, which I hope and trust he won't, you know the other neighbor scum has to be out of me and pv making it a 50/50 shot. And as Nacho pointed out if he does flip scum pv and I become semi-confirmed.

Bulbazak · Post Post #5792 (ISO) » Tue Aug 20, 2013 10:38 am

If nothing else, I'd like people to at least weigh in on the neighborhood debate. We really need to lynch out of the neighborhoods, though.

Desperado · Post Post #5793 (ISO) » Tue Aug 20, 2013 10:47 am

Unvote
Vote: CTD

Baezu · Post Post #5794 (ISO) » Tue Aug 20, 2013 10:55 am

VOTE: CTD

ISO · Post Post #5795 (ISO) » Tue Aug 20, 2013 10:56 am

PV is scummier than the other two, but it is certainly true that setup spec incriminates CTD, and Bulb has pretty much been crushing him all day in my book. My gut preference was to not lynch a neighbor simply because I feel more confident about my non-neighbor reads, but eliminating blue is pretty tempting. So yeah, this is fine. There are so many players in this game that need lynching, getting rid of a nightkill could potentially clinch this for us.

VOTE: CTD

P-edit: Mmk this is now L-2

ffullisade · Post Post #5796 (ISO) » Tue Aug 20, 2013 10:59 am

In post 5788, Nachomamma8 wrote:If we assume both teams are balanced...

11. Red Ryu, Blue Mafia Ninja, shot Night One.
1. thezmon221, Blue Mafia Goon, Lynched Day Two.
17. Seanald, Red Mafia Doctor-Neighbor

Red Mafia is pretty much guaranteed to have a goon. It is guaranteed the someone has a roleblocker. Right now, I lean towards blue scum having a roleblocker; Ninja does nothing but counter the watcher but makes the goon weaker while doctor counters the rolecop AND the watcher if scum-doc is protecting the strong member of his scumteam AND the other scumteam AND the vigilante, meaning that last red role will likely be something comparable in power, maybe rolecop or some shit, doesn't really matter.

There IS another scum in the neighborhood for fairness's sake, and it's not ThAd. It's probably CTD since (Townie-Scum PR, Townie-Scum PR, Townie-Town PR) makes a hell of a lot more sense than (Townie-Townie, Townie-Scum PR, ScumPR-Town PR). Meaning it is important that we aim for scum in the neighborhood since we have a pretty good chance of hitting scum there, hitting the roleblocker will free up ThAd for an actual vig shot (preferably on HD), meaning hitting bluescum gives us the potential of 5 mislynches to work with, which would be the maximum. If CTD flips town, it means that the scumteams are NOT symmetric, which would be strange but could be sorted through. We'd lose the potential for an extra mislynch, but that's not a horribly huge deal since we'd have a 1v1 with ThAd still being decently likely town.

Unlocking the potential for 5 mislynches would be pretty sick, considering it would mean PV-ThAd would be masons and the remaining lynch pool would be:
3. Cephir
4. Nachomamma8
7. Bacde
9. Bulbazak
13. Desperado
14. penguin_alien
21. Amethyst Kitty (Malakittens+MS Marangal)
22. ffullisade (fferylit+pirate mollie)
23. Human Destroyer

...which only needs 4 solid townreads to advance.

Cephrir suspects AK and HD as red-scum.
I suspect HD and Cephrir as red-scum.
Baezu suspects HD as red-scum, second looks like me?
Bulba suspects Baezu and HD as red-scum.
Desperado suspects HD-AK as red-scum.
PA suspects Baezu, maybe still HD.
AK suspects HD and Ceph I guess?
ffullisade suspects HD and ?
HD suspects Baezu and whoever the fuck

My personal 4 strong townreads are any 4 from ffullisade, Bulbazak, Desperado, and penguin_alien. AK and Baezu probably aren't scum either but there's some backlash against them, meaning that they don't make sense as the CORE TOWN. That means that it would be possible for me, HD, AK, Baezu, and Cephrir can all go down and if there's one scum in there and somehow not two you somehow get to take a dip into the town core 4 which shouldn't be ffullisade or Bulbazak under any circumstances.

I would have to either go with Mollie's concerns about AK or my own fairly low-level concerns about Cephrir. He hasn't risen to the level of call-out due to too much neighborhood focus on my part.

Read-wise I don't have CTD as scum, but your argument for symmetric strength of the two scum teams is pretty persuasive.

My strong townreads look like yours, but you're one of them.

ffullisade · Post Post #5797 (ISO) » Tue Aug 20, 2013 11:00 am

I'm not going to put CTD at L-1 right now.

Nachomamma8 · Post Post #5798 (ISO) » Tue Aug 20, 2013 11:01 am

That's L-1 already, you should probably let CTD get some last thoughts out before hammering him.

penguin_alien · Post Post #5799 (ISO) » Tue Aug 20, 2013 11:02 am

I'm willing to follow Desperado and Nachomamma8 on this, and I guess I'd rather not lynch claimed PR ThAd given the Rena result.

Intent to hammer if Nacho is counting right. Claim, please.