Xenogears Mafia (Game Over)


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Post Post #3025 (ISO) » Fri Aug 30, 2013 11:49 am

Post by zMuffinMan »

bro wrote:Could you indicate why, because his interactions with the Rach wagon suck and saying on a high level "it's bad and scummy" does jack shit towards actually convincing me.
why i think the venmar interactions with the rm wagon were town? because they looked genuine. like he actually thought he was right and that the people pushing rm were idiots tunneling. also, it didn't seem overplayed - he gave his thoughts on it, and didn't come back to it again and again, like he could have done if he really wanted to derail the rm wagon.

also, i don't like comparing the actions of a player who has given up (or at least is pretending to have given up) to yourself and suggesting this is makes nick more likely scum, or somehow makes you more likely town
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Post Post #3026 (ISO) » Fri Aug 30, 2013 11:52 am

Post by zMuffinMan »

also, the fact that venmar was reading neither andrius or rm as scum and didn't take an opportunity to jump on andrius for deadline reasons is in his favour as well. (assuming andrius is town)

if venmar's aim was to derail or discredit the rm wagon, i find it more likely that he'd push a fucking viable counterwagon over what he was doing d1
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Post Post #3027 (ISO) » Fri Aug 30, 2013 11:54 am

Post by BROseidon »

@Muffin:

So you've only dug through nick's stuff? I'll dig through the Rach ISO to see if I find anything that reminds me of how she interacted with me in Xenoblade.

The reason why I think one of nick/BnB is scum is because of the case bnb have been bringing against nick combined with the timing of the case. The case is solid; a lot of people nominally scumreading someone but not really doing anything about it is suspicious as fuck, but they brought it up counter to the Rach wagon. It's either BnB have a really solid case, or BnB are scum who've created a really solid case, which they tried to use to derail a lynch on a buddy and are now trying to use to push through a mislynch (I'm leaning towards the former right now). I doubt it's s/s because why throw one buddy under the bus so aggressively to save another, and then continue this aggressively when there are other targets in play. I doubt it's t/t because the timing of it was too perfect (so if nick is town I would want bnb's head)

pedit: your point about not jumping on the Andy wagon is the only point there that I buy. I should go look back at some timing stuff to see if it makes sense.
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Post Post #3028 (ISO) » Fri Aug 30, 2013 11:55 am

Post by BROseidon »

In post 3025, zMuffinMan wrote:like he actually thought he was right and that the people pushing rm were idiots tunneling
So then why not try to build a case?
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Post Post #3029 (ISO) » Fri Aug 30, 2013 12:02 pm

Post by zMuffinMan »

bro wrote:So you've only dug through nick's stuff?
no, i've looked over rach's iso several times. she has minor interactions with a lot of people that i'm not reading too deeply into, and i don't pretend i can discern which of her reads were more likely to be about her scum partners than townies because they were all tripe. i'm sure you could find equally "scummy" interactions between just about any player you can call scum in her iso (trust me, i've gone through it enough times without any bias to know that i could make a case for just about anyone being her partner given how wishy-washy she was on every single player). so i'm discounting most of the things rm said about people in favour of looking at things that people said about rm.i mentioned the interactions that i thought were most significant
bro wrote:It's either BnB have a really solid case, or BnB are scum who've created a really solid case
i don't think bnb had a solid case on nick (i talked about this in depth d1) and i don't think they're scum.
bro wrote:So then why not try to build a case?
ha. cases are fucking useless in this game. i learnt that all too well d1. priority no.1 is stopping a lynch on someone i think could be town.
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Post Post #3030 (ISO) » Fri Aug 30, 2013 12:06 pm

Post by BROseidon »

In post 3029, zMuffinMan wrote:ha. cases are fucking useless in this game. i learnt that all too well d1. priority no.1 is stopping a lynch on someone i think could be town.
Here's the problem I have with that mentality.

I think nick is scum, you think he's town.

We can sit in thread spamming at each other for 10 pages "HE'S TOWN" "NO HE'S SCUM" "NO HE'S TOWN" "NO HE'S SCUM" in various permutations.

Or we can try to convince each other using evidence. You know, going through ISOs and shit and pulling out positions, prose, etc that indicates town interests or scum interests, and then using those to actually be productive.
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Post Post #3031 (ISO) » Fri Aug 30, 2013 12:08 pm

Post by zMuffinMan »

ok, that's great. but so far no one on the nick wagon has really
presented
a case. and i've been talking about the things i think make him likely town.

so what's your fucking point?

this is the exact same fucking shit that happened d1. i talk about reasons i think x. people say no but don't give good reasons why. then it's apparently my fault for not convincing people when i can't even talk about their reasons.
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Post Post #3032 (ISO) » Fri Aug 30, 2013 12:09 pm

Post by BROseidon »

What do you think of nick's jump onto and off of my wagon today?
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Post Post #3033 (ISO) » Fri Aug 30, 2013 12:12 pm

Post by zMuffinMan »

null. he jumped on for bad reasons, but i can see him doing it as town and scum. vote because he thinks it's a 1v1->unvote when he realises that they weren't considering the possibility of roleblock.

*shrug*

it was bad. but it was utterly fucking stupid if he's scum.
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Post Post #3034 (ISO) » Fri Aug 30, 2013 12:23 pm

Post by zMuffinMan »

btw, the fact that there
is no case on nick
is another reason i hate this wagon.

no one has really given opinions on his play, so if he is town, i can't really look at any one player and assess their reasons for being on the nick wagon.

ftl gave his thoughts on nick 50 pages ago, and didn't really care about nick's response to him. bnb had their d1 case on nick. andrius has pointed to some posts he didn't like from nick here and there. and that's it, as far as i can tell.

the rest of it comes down to people thinking nick could be scum for ~reasons~

i really hope i'm wrong about nick being town. it would make this game a lot easier.
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Post Post #3035 (ISO) » Fri Aug 30, 2013 12:27 pm

Post by Andrius »

Unvote
Going to stop being lazy, and look into the Venmar thing a bit deeper.
Because if Venmar isn't scum then my scumlist is going to be a LOT smaller so will need to relook at things.
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Post Post #3036 (ISO) » Fri Aug 30, 2013 12:30 pm

Post by nickthename »

In post 3027, BROseidon wrote: The reason why I think one of nick/BnB is scum is because of the case bnb have been bringing against nick combined with the timing of the case. The case is solid; a lot of people nominally scumreading someone but not really doing anything about it is suspicious as fuck,
You're wrong here, B&B and I are both town. It's very easy to fabricate a scum read on me, because my playstyle tends to ruffle feathers. That said, scum don't necessarily want to push such a read, especially if they only have me listed as a minor scumread, hence why it didn't happen. Now that B&B is yelling from the mountaintops calling for my lynch, scum are taking the path of least resistance and voting me, and town are just coming along for the ride. The nice thing about this, is it gives us a nice wagon to look at. Now, we could just lynch me now and do the wagon analysis after I flip town, but I don't really like that idea. First of all, it skips over a time that we could be using for discussion, which isn't pro-town.

B&B, you talk about me being anti-town for not feeling like saying anything. Well, speedlynching me has the same effect: discussion gets halted, and the net result is that in the future you have less different time periods to examine people's perspectives, so it's harder to draw a continuity of reads.

Second, I enjoy being in this game, and I'd really rather not watch from the sidelines. I also consider myself a fairly useful asset to the town.

I'm very much liking Mastin's more recent analysis, it feels like a logical town perspective. Although part of this is certainly because he's admitted there's a chance i'm not scum, his definitely feels like a townie reaction to the quickwagon.

With that in mind, I'm still not quite sure of his reads, because I'm not sure that I think andrius is scum.

@Mastin If Andrius and I are both town, who do you think is the last scum?

With all that said and Mastin now as a townread I'm off to go iso Bro, Mala, and Nacho, as well as read back through the wagon on myself. I encourage all of you to do the same, or if you already have post your results.

Pedit: I'm not really convinced Venmar is town, but I don't think he's a very good lynch at the moment.
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Post Post #3037 (ISO) » Fri Aug 30, 2013 3:32 pm

Post by Faster Than Light »

In post 3021, mastin2 wrote:There is literally a 0% chance for Venmar to be scum. I'd lynch a cop innocent before I'd lynch Venmar.
damn hyperbole
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Post Post #3038 (ISO) » Fri Aug 30, 2013 3:32 pm

Post by Faster Than Light »

In post 1509, Venmar wrote:I catch Rach scum in Xenoblade and now when I think she's town in this game you guys think my skills on reading her are shit? LOL YOU GUYS FUNNY.
In post 1513, Venmar wrote:The amount of expectation you guys have for Rach in this game is retarded, HOW are you guys using this to justify your scumreads, its pathetic.

damn poor reading skills
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Post Post #3039 (ISO) » Fri Aug 30, 2013 3:39 pm

Post by Aj The Epic »

In post 3031, zMuffinMan wrote:
ok, that's great. but so far no one on the nick wagon has really
presented
a case. and i've been talking about the things i think make him likely town.


so what's your fucking point?

this is the exact same fucking shit that happened d1. i talk about reasons i think x. people say no but don't give good reasons why. then it's apparently my fault for not convincing people when i can't even talk about their reasons.
Oh come the fuck on, man! What was my last post to you? (Apparently no one read it because Nick didn't even bother to acknowledge I made a post about him)
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Post Post #3040 (ISO) » Fri Aug 30, 2013 3:53 pm

Post by zMuffinMan »

oh, i read it and forgot. i didn't consider it a case. i think a lot of it was misrepresenting what nick was actually saying. parts of it you didn't consider the tone of the posts, and parts of it were just not actually what he was saying. if you want me to break down all your thoughts and tell you what i mean specifically i can.
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Post Post #3041 (ISO) » Fri Aug 30, 2013 3:55 pm

Post by zMuffinMan »

also you don't even think nick makes sense as scum with your other suspicions, and when you asked the rhetorical question of whether you personally think nick is scum, your answer was that you wouldn't be surprised if he was because of bad posting.
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Post Post #3042 (ISO) » Fri Aug 30, 2013 4:28 pm

Post by zMuffinMan »

@aj

Spoiler:
So these are basically my thoughts on your thoughts, thinking about it from the perspective that nick is town. And this is basically why I didn't consider your "case" to be a real case.
aj wrote:He's basically said he won't work well with others no matter what, and won't consider their opinions until they're dead.
This is not actually what nick was saying.

The conversation was about whether mac is scum or not. bnb responded to TD saying that she could read mac because they were in a hydra and when she thought mac was scum she'd say so. nick responded back saying that he trusted his own reads (a mac scum read) over the reads of someone who he doesn't know is town.

But hey, even if this
was
nick saying that he doesn't work well with others and won't consider their opinions until they're dead, so what? How does that benefit scum-nick in any way? Especially if bnb is town, that just puts a fucking target on his back for bnb to keep an eye on him.
aj wrote:Another post of nick trying to be generally unhelpful, although this one is slightly more telling if he has a noticeable difference in town/scum meta. When Mollie mentions she has meta on Nick, Nick completely blows her off again.
This is an example of where I think you're completely misreading or ignoring the tone of the posts. The snarky attitude probably has a lot more to do with playstyle and nothing to do with alignment.

I can
maybe
see you thinking that perhaps nick was being snarky because he's scum and they legitimately can't meta him to know this... But you didn't say this, so I'm not actually sure what your point was here.

Again, another thing that doesn't benefit nick-scum in any way.
aj wrote:1st quote section: That's not even close to what Mastin was doing. Nick's basically misrepped Mastin here.
*shrug* That was his interpretation of it, and I can see how he possibly thought mastin was doing nothing more than buddying. mastin spent a majority of d1 claiming he's obvtown, assuring people he's town, etc. It wasn't exactly a misrepresentation, just a different interpretation.
aj wrote:He constantly bugs Mastin about how mastin is faking confidence and therefore is lying. Ergo, nick suggests, LaL. Confidence is something that can be faked and not be indicative at all to anything. I mean, mastin's already told us that he's having a bit of issues getting into the game here, and personally, his confidence is a lot better than someone just reading 'null this, null that, null all the things'.
Well, he wasn't suggesting LaL. He did have a problem with how mastin was feigning confidence in his reads while admitting he wasn't confident in his read.

I think it's a bad reason to think mastin is scum, but I can see where nick was coming from. Compound this with mastin not having any arguments or case for nick being scum, and it's not hard to see why he could have been suspicious of mastin.

I questioned mastin myself several times d1 on the reasons he thought nick was scum and never got a response from him about it. He shrugged it off every time.

So yeah, I can understand why nick would be irked by mastin feigning confidence in his nick scum read...
aj wrote:First, we see he DISLIKES Rach's read list (which, fyi, is worse than anything Mastin put up this game), but denies that Rach is a good d1 lynch
I understood his reasoning for this. As he explained in , RM may have been acting scummy but it was a lynch based on little information and even if she flipped scum, there would be very few interaction tells. While I disagree with him, I can see where he's coming from, and I don't think this opinion is alignment indicative.

It's the same reason it's hard to push through a lynch on any lurker D1. Regardless of how scummy you think a particular lurker is, you may be wrong. And even if you're right, there's little information you can discern from their ISO. <- general theory I don't necessarily agree with myself, but I know others might think this.

But you acknowledge that this is the reason in the last part of your 'case' anyway.
aj wrote:saying they should be lynching mastin (off of wagon support formed from that '5 scum' comment mastin had). But,
... For someone that talks about nick misrepresenting mastin, I find it ironic that you took a post from the end of the day where it was obvious mastin wasn't going to be lynched, and pretended this is some sort of proof that nick contradicted himself or something.
aj wrote:First, he suggests leaving a 'scummy player' around to get a better read on her
This is the one thing (like I mentioned in ) that I'm trying to figure out and makes sense from the perspective nick and RM are scum together. It is entirely possible he was suggesting this to protect his buddy. Perhaps because she was a mad scientist and could possibly useful to keep around for at least an extra day.

I'm currently thinking this isn't the case, though (obviously). Mostly because I thought this was an opinion of his (based on his own mafia theory ideas) and wasn't something he was trying to push in order to save RM.

I'm also currently thinking this isn't the case because, like venmar, there were more viable counterwagons than mastin and he never really took the opportunity to jump on any of them.

And I'm also currently thinking that it was just too blatant to make sense as scum partners.
aj wrote:: Artificial reads. This really isn't true. Mastin had been giving and re-explaining reads all day.
No. You're ignoring the main read mastin
NEVER
explained. The nick scum read. Despite being asked multiple times, he never explained it. He shrugged it off and said "the whole iso is scummy" the one time he responded to a request to explain the nick suspicion.

Also, mastin's reads
did
look artificial, and anyone who thinks this isn't the case has something wrong with them. His reads were
all based on interaction, not on the content people were posting
.
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Post Post #3043 (ISO) » Fri Aug 30, 2013 4:36 pm

Post by Ghostlin »

Hello, Nacho. School semester started. Sorry for that, and also there's another reason why I've not been posting: the topic is fucking boring.

Here's my feelings on the Nick wagon: Meh.

There has nothing Nick has said that has jumped out and bit me either way. He's been pretty passive, and I can vaguely remember him playing this game, and it seems he's not gone out of his way to interact with anyone. In other words, I've got nothing either way. There's nothing really to construct a case of why Nick's scum, and I couldn't recommend him to Town to anyone. This is dangerous as the game drags on, but it's hardly alarm bell worthy Day 2.

I'd lynch him if there was no other option and the other lynches aren't going anywhere, but we have Mala, who's had horrible reactions to everyone and just seems utterly scummy. Can we just lynch her and leave Nick for a later day, to decide if Town or Scum?

Also, Mutley's Town for taking care of Saki.
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Post Post #3044 (ISO) » Fri Aug 30, 2013 4:38 pm

Post by BeautyAndTheBeast »

muffin I reached out and you did not respond
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Post Post #3045 (ISO) » Fri Aug 30, 2013 4:39 pm

Post by BeautyAndTheBeast »

In post 3043, Ghostlin wrote:This is dangerous as the game drags on, but it's hardly alarm bell worthy Day 2.
...
Can we just lynch her and leave Nick for a later day
I'll let you consider the idiocy of what you've just suggested by pointing out two separate ideas in your post.

Then kindly notice all the obvtown on the nick wagon and place your vote there.
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Post Post #3046 (ISO) » Fri Aug 30, 2013 4:40 pm

Post by Ghostlin »

In post 3017, mastin2 wrote:There's a difference between wanting nick dead and wanting nick dead now, immediately, as in "should have happened five days ago". That's the difference between "in favor" and "against". For instance, me? Against--at the moment. Not because I think nick is town. Because I think ending the day immediately is a bad idea.
Also, it's a wagon that gives us fuck all for information. It's a shit wagon based at the very least on a few Townsfolk who feel like me that Nick's lack of interaction could mean he's scum, and scum willing to shit slide it into a Day 2 lynch.
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Post Post #3047 (ISO) » Fri Aug 30, 2013 4:40 pm

Post by Ghostlin »

In post 3017, mastin2 wrote:There's a difference between wanting nick dead and wanting nick dead now, immediately, as in "should have happened five days ago". That's the difference between "in favor" and "against". For instance, me? Against--at the moment. Not because I think nick is town. Because I think ending the day immediately is a bad idea.
Also, it's a wagon that gives us fuck all for information. It's a shit wagon based at the very least on a few Townsfolk who feel like me that Nick's lack of interaction could mean he's scum, and scum willing to shit slide it into a Day 2 lynch.
"You live for the fight when it's all that you've got."--Bon Jovi, Living on a Prayer
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Post Post #3048 (ISO) » Fri Aug 30, 2013 4:41 pm

Post by BeautyAndTheBeast »

In post 3046, Ghostlin wrote:Also, it's a wagon that gives us fuck all for information. It's a shit wagon based at the very least on a few Townsfolk who feel like me that Nick's lack of interaction could mean he's scum, and scum willing to shit slide it into a Day 2 lynch.
Actually it gives us plenty of information, thanks.
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Post Post #3049 (ISO) » Fri Aug 30, 2013 4:42 pm

Post by Ghostlin »

In post 3045, BeautyAndTheBeast wrote:
In post 3043, Ghostlin wrote:This is dangerous as the game drags on, but it's hardly alarm bell worthy Day 2.
...
Can we just lynch her and leave Nick for a later day
I'll let you consider the idiocy of what you've just suggested by pointing out two separate ideas in your post.

Then kindly notice all the obvtown on the nick wagon and place your vote there.
These aren't opposing ideas. And because there's obv-town there, doesn't mean Jesus's second coming has happened and they've magically become infallible. Bluntly, I'd rather not lynch a shit townie that might have an infinitesimally small chance of redemption that I'm lukewarm about as scum and would much rather lynch scum.

Is this a hard concept to understand, Bed and Breakfast?
"You live for the fight when it's all that you've got."--Bon Jovi, Living on a Prayer
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