In post 3337, Faster Than Light wrote:You know, I'm beating around the bush, let me just get long winded and pull this whole thing out for you:
Rach, at the time of the Lynch, was the following:
zMuffinMan, Desperado, Nachomamma8, Ghostlin, BeautyAndTheBeast, Aj The Epic, Sound of Silence, Andrius, Trust Fund, Saki, BROseidon
The people who gave up wagons to change to the Rach Wagon (TRR=town read rach. SRR=scum read rach) were:
BROseidon (TRR), Saki (TRR), Trust Fund (TRR), Andrius (SRR), AJ the Epic (SRR), BeautyandtheBeast (TRR), Ghostlin (SRR), Sound of Silence (TRR)
Basically, only zMuffinMan, Desperado, and Nachomamma8 were consistently SRR for all of D1.
Now, there's two possible scenarios here.
Either Rach's wagon was entirely town (So far, true, as Saki and Sound of Silence were both town)
OR
Rach had scum bussing her.
Here's my first issue. What you are saying is on a CB^2 (case by case basis). Not ALL scum are on this, not all are off (although both do become possibilities). Therefore, drawing conclusions as you do later that all scum are consistent/inconsistent as a trend for the team is unfortunately flawed from the getgo.
Now, Rach likely did have scum bussing her.
Which is interesting, given that our two confirmed town were reading her as TOWN before putting a vote on her.
So, does that mean everyone reading her as scum (Ghostlin, Andy, B&B) who swapped a vote to her to make the lynch happen are scum? Maybe.
(But probably not...? Just look at who you've named. But as an inconclusive line of evidence, you're almost bringing up Ghostlin's point about questions =/= facts. Same goes for the next line, but I would, off hand, go player by player again. Out of these, each had different patterns through, which may be what you're getting at, but to group zmuffin, desp, and nacho in by scum read and initial push is issumatic due to nacho not even sticking wagon the whole time.)
What significance is there behind zMuffin, Desperado, and Nacho pushing hard for a Rach lynch right away?
Let's move to the Nick wagon and Mala wagon.
Mastin and BnB both made posts about Nick and the people who were voicing support but not backing it. Sound familiar?
Let's dig in. I've changed things to the SRN/TRN to echo my earlier antonyms.
Mastin's List:
Andrius (SRN)
Venmar
nickthename (TRN)
BeautyAndTheBeast (SRN)
Nachomamma8 (SRN)
Desperado
notscience (SRN)
zMuffinMan (SRN)
Faster than Light (SRN)
Mutleyddmc
Aj the Epic (SRN)
TiphaineDeath (TRN)
Trust Fund
Haven't posted since my post about the nick wagon ending the day:
BROseidon (SRN)
Ghostlin
Mac
Malakittens
BnB's List (of people SRN):
BRO, TF, Mastin, Ghostlin, zMuffin, AJ, Andy, Nacho.
Out of these people, the ones who were SRN but didn't budge till later on the Rach wagon are:
(Here, you're saying, have a scum read on nick, but were late(er) to the Rach wagon? Don't let the final vote count fool you. I was on way earlier than my vote's on in the train, in the last few hours, I switched to andrius to help get a lynch. I can't speak for the other two, but unless I'm missing something, this again is cb^2)
Ghostlin, AJ, Andrius.
But that represents logical progression of gameplay, which merits these people town points, because if they're scum for playing the same way, then it's a double bus, which is against scum wincon, really. No, let's look at the people who were DEFIANTLY TRN or SRN on Rach, but are the opposite with this Nick Wagon (flimsy/has a read but isn't defiant about it):
zMuffin, Nacho, BROseidon, Trust Fund
Special note is that Desperado was very SRN on Rach all of D1 and has been very TRN on Nick all of D2, while B&B is the opposite (was defiant TNR on Rach, is defiant SRN on Nick).
zMuffin, Nacho, Trustfund, and BROseidon are people that are really suspicious to me, so this feels like it's inquiry in the right direction.
NOW! Let's look at Nick's list for how people stand on the Mala Wagon~
SRM and DEFIANT:
Ghostlin, NicktheName.
This again is wrong. As of right now, I believe I am the ONLY one who has championed multiple posts to garnering Mala wagon support, having one of 2 or 3 cases against her. I'm not sure your definition of defiant, but Nick has been on Mala for survivalist (And I am interested to see how much of his case mirrors mine). Ghostlin has been very defiant on it, and I might even say Bro has been an advocate. Nothing defiant (started more or less today) but still there. Mastin rings as another person who has been a supporter or Mala scum and consistently reads her as scum/has voted her before today. This 'defiant' list is a bit flawed.
SRM but FLIMSY:
Mac,
Mastin,
B&B,
BRO,
NS,
AJ.
SRM but AWKWARD:
zMuffin,
Mutley,
TF,
Andy.
The overlap between the three lists are:
BRO, TF, zMuffin
Nacho's all over the place.
Desperado is defiantly TRM, too, for the record. B&B had some hiccups in TRM, but that's ultimately where it is.
Basically, what this boils down to is that either there's scum CONSISTENTLY playing the game or there's scum INCONSISTENTLY playing the game.
And here's my issue. The whole argument lies on the above and directly below holding PERFECTLY true. But, cb^2. For example, Venmar and I recently had a scum game together (1442 HoC mafia) where we shared very few reads throughout the whole game. Our progression of reads held so little in common that realistically, there wasn't any associative tells until we had some hiccups in the end two lylos (He was way more secure and consistent in reads while mine generally had a little less consistency (Was all over DDDP, Pasche, Fuzdun and Toog the whole game). The point is: A scum team isn't going to share consistency or inconsistency on reads. Individually? Yes. If you're looking for specific tells, where one scum drops back on a read on a buddy to try and stop a wagon, yes. But TOWN doesn't always have perfect consistency either (hence one of the first ways to set up mislynches as scum is to attack inconsistent play whether in reads or otherwise. Scum tactic 101.
If Nick is Scum, this makes Mala town and means that scum is CONSISTENT in their play.
If Mala is Scum, this makes Nick town and means that scum is INCONSISTENT in their play.
Of course, they could both be scum, which would speak towards CONSISTENCY, which is why I have to play the gambit that I am playing.
It means specific players (Nick, here) is consistent. Not alignment indicative, as stated above, unless he was hard town reading Mala previously.
Once we know this, it'll be easier for us (or, at least, me) to find scum, because I can look for a group of inconsistent/consistent players and really ISOLATE there.
CONSISTENT PLAYERS: Desperado, Ghostlin, Aj, Andrius, B&B, etc
INCONSISTENT PLAYERS: Rach Marie, Nacho, zMuffin, BROseidon, Trust Fund, etc
The great thing is that NICK and MALA represent each camp as well, with Nick being consistent and Mala being inconsistent, imo.
So, yeah, thoughts?
Am I just crazy and seeing things on a totally different level than everyone else?
I would say in math, we'd call this "No correlation"... Where does tunneling fall here? And then are you accurate about every mentioned player? For example, BnB with Andrius/Rach yesterday. And since BnB is basically conftown at this point, we can realistically again apply no correlation to consistency here. (You could also add inconsistency of hydra heads)
When people started posting all those Scum-reading-but-not-voting posts, I did a double take, and reallly mulled over all this stuff, and that's how I came up with my gambit, which'll be a lynch on an inconsistent player that is anti-Nick (Mala, Mac, etc) with PHASE 2 shit that'll give us Nick and Nacho's alignments.
God, I'm so awesome.
-V
