Mini 1482: Castle - A Mafia Murder So Vile (GAME OVER)

[waynegg]

Guess I'm invisible to tayter...

[Malakittens]

3.15

with nine alive it will take five to lynch.

*waynegg -
*Sweet Pertayter -
*FakeGod -
*Mantisdreamz - Desperado, FakeGod, Sweet Pertayter [3]
*Serrapaladin -
*Desperado - Natirasha, Mantisdreamz, waynegg [3]
*Bert -
*Natirasha -
*penguin_alien -

Not Voting [3]: penguin_alien, bert, Serrapaladin

Chapter 3 Ends..

Day 3 ends in (expired on 2013-09-19 12:55:00)

[waynegg]

[Mantisdreamz]

I'm glad someone finally asked

***penguin_alien*** ~ Claimed Jenny Shaw

Spoiler:

465 given Slimer's town flip, scum wouldn't take
this line of questioning. Solid town.
1141 owns thread so much with this post
1151 if I could make love to this post, I would

Whether you've played with P_A or not, if you analyze his posts based on the motivation behind them (working within himself and in a limited capacity with others to sort out scum vs. self preservation when facing heat and finger pointing) he's clearly town. This theme has continued throughout the game with him and it would take some really major development for me to consider touching this slot.

Then there's the high probability that Jenny Shaw wouldn't have been claimed right after Jordan Shaw if it were a fake claim because it would be too obvious.

nevermind about claims, waynegg
pa is a she, also i am a she

too much whiskey for you!

[Sweet Pertayter]

Not today Nats, no

[Bert]

Bert, can you find me a gif of the monks from Monty Python and the Holy Grail smacking in the head.

Yessir, will do when I'm awake and off me phone

Love Monty python!!!!

[Sweet Pertayter]

He claims tracker, just to push a mislynch?

when, tomorrow it is likely to put him under alot of pressure when Mantis flips town, and non-visiting as she claims?

[Natirasha]

He claims tracker, just to push a mislynch?

when, tomorrow it is likely to put him under alot of pressure when Mantis flips town, and non-visiting as she claims?

Desperado was guaranteed to be under pressure today! Did you read any of yesterday? Did you see the hammer?

[Sweet Pertayter]

no

not really, though I did read enough to have desp as townish and Om did yesterday to I think

[penguin_alien]

Seven..teen...pages. And counting.

On it.

[waynegg]

Under the circumstances yes. And QL, not just a ML which would have ended the day early so town had no time to work out reads. Where's the town motivation? Even if he did get lynched the next day it would still be perpetual mylo and tracker gives him the chance to talk his way out of it since it isn't definite in its results

[Sweet Pertayter]

Mantis is a better lynch regardless of Desp's alignment.
Nati is actually looking much scummier today.
That is where I stand.

~Om

[Mantisdreamz]

nats, you sure you investigated omara as town?

[Natirasha]

nats, you sure you investigated omara as town?

'not mafia' was the result. I don't believe I was redirected. It doesn't stop third party or godfather, though.

[penguin_alien]

This is long; bear with me. (I read through enough posts about whiskey that I've earned it, damn it.)

Vote: Mantis

^She killed Wisdom. I tracker her to it.

I also tracked Huntress to Mollie N1--I hammered her because the Mollie/Wisdom/Bert multi-page slapfight wasn't doing anyone any good, the day needed to end, and I probably wouldn't have believed her claim anyway.

So wait, you tracked Huntress to someone who didn't die?

We have a flipped Bodyguard, a claimed Town Cop, and a claimed Town Tracker. Without the Bodyguard in the mix, I'd think the Tracker could be a more misleading investigative role, as a non-protective role is more likely to be tracked to someone who dies, producing a false positive. Bodyguard, OTOH, isn't going to be tracked to a corpse; it would be the corpse if its target was NK'd. Which, given claimed town PRs, means that only a Town Cop could be falsely incriminated. If it started out with a two-man scum team + SK, that gives a tracker somewhere > 67% odds of getting an incriminating result off an actual scum. Toss in a non-Bodyguard town PR, whether it's a Town Cop (for the sake of argument; more on that later) or something else, and you decrease that to...something like still better than 50%, assuming the PR's target wasn't also selected as an NK. (What. Math is hard after 1 AM.) A three-man scum team + SK decreases those starting odds to 50+% and lower them by some amount with other non-protective town PRs.

So, we have a claimed tracker, who fits in via not being 100% guaranteed to get a usable result, versus a claimed cop who fits with an investigation-immune SK. Serra, weren't you in Yates' Mini game where there was a town cop and tracker as the town PRs? I don't know how that would have played out, as you were NK'd N1, but I don't remember much howling post-game about it balance-wise.

Having said that, with a Bodyguard on top of that and two scum factions in play, I'm not sure it's as likely here.

The following is assuming town flips come with claimed PRs being shown as true claims (which I think is a safe assumption, given the skill level of the players involved):

Mantis flipping scum does not exonerate Desperado. Desperado flipping scum does not exonerate Mantis.

Mantis flipping town makes Desperado scum. Desperado flipping town makes Mantis scum.

Desperado flipping scum does exonerate Natirasha for me. Natirasha flipping scum in turn makes Desperado likely town. A bit hesitant here, as I suppose it could be a giant gambit, but if that's going on I'd expect it in the Desperado-Mantis duo.

If Nat is town, Sweet Pertayter is town. Or at least not a problem; I suppose they could be a Survivor, but that's not really an issue for us. If Nat is scum, Sweet Pertayter is indeterminate.

So, starting from Mantis:

Scum-Mantis -> ?-Desp -> ?-Nat -> ?-SP: one of four determined.
Town-Mantis -> Scum-Desp -> Town-Nat -> non-problematic-SP: four of four determined.

Starting from Desp:

Scum-Desp -> ?-Mantis + Town-Nat -> non-problematic-SP: three of four determined.
Town-Desp -> Scum-Mantis + ?-Nat -> ?-SP: two of four determined.

Starting from Nat like some fools apparently are contemplating at some point in the 17 pages:

Scum-Nat -> ?-SP + Town-Desp -> Scum-Mantis: three of four determined.
Town-Nat -> non-problematic-SP + ?-Desp -> ?-Mantis: two of four determined.

And we're not lynching SP today, but that wouldn't shed light on this anyways unless they flipped scum, and I haven't seen any relevant cases for such.

It actually works out about the same for EV of # of alignments determined by my thinking. Looking at the individual cases, if Desperado is scum fakeclaiming a result on Mantis, you do run into the problem that it pretty firmly leaves him as the next lynch and gives us two cleared town, which locks in scum's NK choices for the nights in LyLo if it's a three-man team: Mantis kill = 8/13, next day is likely 7/13 with three scum. If this is gambiting scum-Desperado and we lynch him, scum's in the same boat, except we've staved off LyLo, so they're in an even worse position. OTOH, if he and Mantis are in cahoots, it puts the survivor in great position going forward.

I also know this part is WIFOM fodder, but again if Desperado is scum and Mantis is not, here's what happened: Mafia opted to ignore Nat and SP in favor of killing Wisdom. Then, despite the fact that Wisdom's town flip would have cast some doubt on Mantis anyways, they decide to throw down with her.

I think we average the same amount of useful information for any of those lynches. But given that there is almost certainly an actual town PR withing {Desperado, Natirasha}, we run the lowest risk of losing out on future information (or at least reducing scum's options) by lynching Mantis today.

But. I won't vote until I hear from Desperado why he hammered someone who he saw visit a player who didn't then die. If I missed it, please point it out for me. There's a metric ton of irrelevant stuff here, from figuring out what Mala said in the OP to recapping objective facts of Day Two.

Nat, why did your town read on Mollie slip?

I think waynegg is pretty town here; he seems more motivated to examine things than I'd expect from scum replacing in and presumably chatting with other scum overnight. Serra's train of thought on how to deal with this whole PR claims thing makes me think he's town for how his process overlaps with mine. I expect that today's flip will go a long way toward figuring out a lot of the others.

[Natirasha]

My town read on Mollie slipped enough because of Wisdom's insistence and the odd timing on the replacement(halfway through the night phase). Sadly, it didn't end up mattering, but I know there is a roleblocker going on now. I was going to hit Desp, my primary target, but I figured it was a foregone conclusion and as long as either Wisdom or I lived, we would ream his ass today.

Thank you for being town, penguin, by the way.

[Sweet Pertayter]

Ok Peng makes sense.
UNVOTE:

~Om

[Desperado]

But. I won't vote until I hear from Desperado why he hammered someone who he saw visit a player who didn't then die. If I missed it, please point it out for me. There's a metric ton of irrelevant stuff here, from figuring out what Mala said in the OP to recapping objective facts of Day Two.

With Nat outed I assumed it was Tracker/Cop vs Goon-Goon-PR and that I had found the scum PR. I hammered her because I would have regardless of their claim.

[Bert]

@Nat





I got some sleep. <3

[waynegg]

Y u wanna hit peeps with fish? That's just mean.

[serrapaladin]

peng's analysis is good, but I'm not sure why that would necessarily make her town.

If this is a setup, scum thought of it, so I would expect them to have a better grasp of the situation.

I'm tempted to trust my gut and vote desp, but mantis would be the smarter call.

[Mantisdreamz]

i was thinking that about peng's analysis too.
if she's town for that, i literally have only desp as scum

[Sweet Pertayter]

Mantis/Nats?

[waynegg]

2810 what's the motivation for offing a townie to force 3 days of mylo in a game where scum are at full strength, regardless of how you perceive their play? That would require town lynching perfect for three days straight (assuming 3 scum though it could be 2 with the SK), and we haven't done that for one day straight yet.

Even if that were the case, why a player who has done quite a bit of work tracing connections with players over say (no offense) a player like Bert who has pretty well sheeped and has demonstrated that he's already confused? Not at all saying Bert should be lynched. Just pointing out the fallacy. Also want to point out this post, and the one just previous to it where they voted me, came after I'd already stated suspicion of Tayter's slot. I see zero town motivation, and if someone I feel I can probably trust can't come up with some, I'm starting to think they may be the best lynch for today. Here's why...

Nat cleared them with his Cop claim

Desp claimed tracker with a circumstantial guilty on Mantis

While we have no way of knowing right now which is telling the truth, it could be a waste to lynch either

Lynching Tayter and hitting scum will implicate Nat (unless Godfather)

Nat cleared= Desp scum, probably Serra scum, and Mantis cleared

Nat implicated= Desp cleared, Mantis/Serra scum

Either way it would give us solid info to proceed to town win, and moreso than Desp by himself. Also more than Serra by himself, though I could vote here today as well of need be.

I would like to hear from Nat and Desp before hearing from Tayter on this please.

Given her their earlier play (which pinged with Mollie too) Tayter has given off scum vibes. Their play today has definitely been scummy.

[Natirasha]

I wanna make sure you're asking me what I think you are before answering.

You are asking if I want to lynch potato hydra.