Newbie 1415 Game Over!

[JasonWazza]

There was absolutely no scum reason to try to dismantle the JKLM wagon immediately upon replacing into the thread. It was at L-1.

Shaking up a game state that is favorable to me just isn't something I see a point to doing as scum.

That i can see being done for town cred.

[JKLM]

We are all tired I think.

Falcon, you control this game. That's best for town fortunately.

P edit

Thank you Jasonthats EXACTLY what I was trying to say.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

Also yeah falcon, you've got worst cad scenarios as adding scum via your interactions as you subbed into a town confirmed spot.

Yeah, pretty much. For me it is 1/5 as opposed to 1/4. Not liking the 20% odds.

But I'll just refine my analysis and post it here and I'd like to hear your thoughts on it to see if it convinces you or if you can convince me otherwise.

[fferyllt]

I AM NOT TRYING TO MOVE THE LYNCH OFF ME TODAY. i AM DONE TALKING ABOUT ME OR SAKURA.

I am taking that off the table because I'm tired of being drawn into defending myself when I am completely resigned to being today's lynch.

Now.

I am a reasonably competent town player and I probably can generate some content that will be useful tomorrow. If you are town, then use this opportunity. My strength as a player is in conversational mode, not in walls. Walls have their place, especially as a replacement player, but I've posted enough walls. Let's talk.

[fferyllt]

*crickets*

[Bert]

Falcon, I don't know what to say to you, other than

there is a big difference between (1) just having reads change throughout the game and (2) opportunistically changing reads to the person who just is starting to realize that you're scum

Sequence of events:

1) I start to think Ffery's scum, Ffery's townread on me becomes filled with doubt, and she starts questioning my paranoia and if it's real

2) JKLM joins me and votes Ffery, and then Ffery responds by voting JKLM when JKLM has been a rather strong townread of Ffery's

3) This morning, Mutley joins in and votes Ffery, and then Ffery (you guessed it!) then tells Falcon that Mutley is where her vote is going today.

Do you get the picture?

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

Analysis of ffery's meta

Town 1) BSG Mafia

Called passive by orcinus who says that she is less engaged with the game. Immediately put under pressure for most of the game with other players guessing that passiveness is caused due to being pressured. Posts lead up to suspicion on buldermar. In the end, voted buldermar while asking Orcinus who to lynch. Asks to be lynched that day rather than the following day since she is worried about buldermar setting her up to be an awesome townie and then FOSsing her next DP for not lynching scum day 1. As time goes on, starts to read Buldermar as town (despite the fact that he was scum). What is notable here is that she is already planning for the next day as to what will happen if she is lynched. She is also called extremely scummy for not fighting her lynch but this just seems to be the way she rolls. Her post 620 also tries to get town thinking about what will happen after she is lynched much as she is doing in this game.

Town 2) Newbie 1389

As IC. Gets accused of being defensive when she responds to an accusation to another player that giving townreads is scummy. Supports her meta style with links. Asks probing question about why a player feels that another is scum and comments a little when they provide their reasoning. When asked what her reads were, says that the person asking her is possible scum but that she needs more time to figure it out and that she could be rusty. Has a little uncertainty, likely because it is beginning of the game and reads haven’t developed yet. When a newbie prods her, she says “I am done waiting for reads” and starts posting ISOs. Does 3 ISOs and then votes her biggest scumread. Reads are not very well developed and there is no mention of trajectories. Explains how Bauss’s stance went from indirect to direct and that is what caused the change in her read. When Lynx votes for a player, ffery wants to chat with Lynx about that player and starts discussing reads. Parallels with her asking Mutt to talk to her. But in this game, her analysis is very detailed. With Mutt, not so much.

Town 3) Newbie 1364

Reads MsMarangal as scum for a “pretty bad looking” argument on dissonance. Asks very specific questions, says that she missed Nick’s lie. Gives her opinions about a case that nickthename made on Broseidon and says that MsMarangal was buddying him and not the other way around. Continues to FOS the same person that she had initially called scum. Disagrees with Marangal calling the progression of her scumreads’s posts “excellent.” The tone is slightly different and she is less wishy-washy. Uses strong words like “this is gold” or “left the case in shreds.” Also says that “these analyses look pretty damn town-motivated.” Shows a lot more conviction and less wishy-washyness. Continues asking very specific questions to a few players. Questions to MsMarangal are extremely detailed, specific, and probing. Is tonally very firm “I have no idea what your case on Nick was.” Does ISO’s on several players. Keeps pushing the lynch on MsM. Isn’t very uncertain or wishy-washy. Is reasonably certain of affiliation. Is suspicious of flexibility where the player unvotes and says he needs to do a re-read since scum want to be flexible to allow the town to chose a direction. 419 shows more specificity. Pro-actively scumhunts. Does a lot more than what was required of her. Picks up on too many dots and less connections when a player distinctly states that he forgot something and then explicitly mentions going after Nacho.
Note that the tediously exhaustive ISOs are not something she does as town. This could very well be a null tell.
A great tell: said she found conflict scummy. So, this is a null tell. However, the response to conflict was to do tons and tons of ISOs. A stark contrast from her scumgame where she merely states that she was confused and demands more cases from the town while being quite vague.
478 shows a lot of willingness to look for evidence. Wonders whether Chris invented those categories on the fly. Once she verifies it, she mentions that at least Dodgy was a technical term in Chris’s lexicon.

This is one game that undermines my townread because ffery in this game is nothing like what she was in that game. However, as a caveat, note that she seemed to be particularly hard-working and willing to dig into multiple ISOs in that game so it is a rather high standard to which to hold her now.

Scum 1) The popcorn mafia

Play is slightly different because she didn’t replace in but none of her initial posts had any content whatsoever. Says that she is bored and wants to gun. There is the general tendency to sit back and not be pro-active. 297 has a lot of very weak reads. No conviction in any of them. Posts very little content and is mostly very unsure. Barely ever justifies any of her reads. Never mentions anything about trajectory or anything else.

Scum 2) Newbie 1403

Mentions that the player who was lynched Day1 wanted to scrutinize a few others, asks how this is going. Provides reads: "

Zebe looked townish. KBW terrible but lynchbait, proceed with caution. TheGargantula is an improvement over predecessor but did notice something that was an amished tell.

" Says that she found the game contentious and that she found some of the cases difficult to follow. Notes in her wiki that town had some serious confirmation bias. Asks each person to lay out their cases against each other and against her scumpartner (thor). Asks Thor to lay out his case as well. Scum motive: let the town fight amongst themselves. In 604, attacks KBW asking “so you are discounting that huge towntell made earlier.” The tone of the post is accusatory since it assumes that the towntell existed and was huge and asked whether KBW discounted it. Mentions that she is bothered by Valius which is a really weak scumread. Switches reads and says that she wants to lynch between Valius, Zebe, and Thor. Valius was the leading wagon. Zebe read was switched from the initial weak non-reason. Thor is her buddy. Weird that she wants to lynch Thor despite Thor and Valius going hard against each other. Asks for links to games to substantiate a claim. Discusses with Thor as to where to place her votes.

- Says “

Gah. So many contradictory stances in this game

.” Wants to stay back and allow town to lynch themselves. Does not want to take part in the conflict when it doesn’t concern her. Does not hesitate in throwing out scumteam pairs. Says she has to rethink everything.
- Tries to keep her head out of the major conflicts.
- Had weak reads that she switched over (Mutt read here parallels Zebe read in that game) but only a little since she elaborates on Mutt read a little.

Scum 3) Newbie 1319

In 232, she does her first ISO as scum. The first thing to note that it wasn’t very detailed and doesn’t really dig into the motivations of players. At least, it is nowhere near as detailed as her multiple ISOs tracking down trajectories of other players. Keeps a reads list detailing all of her reads. Won't say too much more about this since it is apparently not her usual playstyle.

General Notes

1) When she doesn’t understand a case, she tries to deconstruct it and question further as town. However, as scum, tries to stay on the sidelines and pick a case while fanning the flames. In this game, she definitely has attacked Jason upon replacing in and defended JKLM. As scum, I'd expect her to ask one of them to re-iterate their cases, ask clarification questions and as deadline approaches, settle for a lynch. However, she pretty much strong-armed the direction of the day phase and presented her reads very strongly. This aligns with her town meta much more than scum.
2) Has an incredible amount of attention to detail and is very specific about digging to the bottom of a player’s motivation. - This concerned me a little since she wasn't really paying attention to detail. But it is not enough to outweigh my townread.
3) Seems to be more sure and convicted as town but the game where she got lynched is evidence that this isn't a surefire tell and she can also be unsure and wishy-washy as town.

Thought process in this game:
Came in, thought bestwillcui was scummy with Jason a second scumread. A reread of bestwillcui’s ISO made her think he was town with Jason being scum. As she reads through Jason’s ISO, the read strengthened and she comments on every post that Jason has made. Townreads Muttley for not voting Jason since given ffery’s current stance, it ensures that Jason gets lynched today. Bert thinks Jason is town first. This point is important is another reason that undermines my townread. But overall, I won't lynch ffery today if I can help it and it is at all possible to convince any of you guys to lynch somebody else.

[JKLM]

I've felt better about FFERLYT now.

But now I need to know who you think falcon, as a better vote.

unvote

For now. I like reasoning very much and would rather not have anyone else prefer that from happening.

[fferyllt]

Falcon, who do you think is scum?

You've put a ton of effort into sorting me. I hope you're looking similarly at others.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

Lol, if fferyllt is actually scum, I am never going to live this down.

Pedit: I wouldn't rule out Jason because I read his meta but ended up null leaning town at best but probably not him. JKLM is definitely not scum. That leaves Bert and Muttley. I am going to check Bert's meta next and Muttley's after that. I am kinda surprised nobody strongly suspects him but he's been on my scumdar for a pretty long time.

[JKLM]

Clarification: I feel better from what Falcon has said no fferylt.

P edit:

We have at some point But due to several focuses in this game some of us are just keeping quiet about t for now. Bu now is a good time Come out about Bert.

[Bert]

Yeah if you need links, I'll be happy to provide

My alt is Nachopappa

Also, don't be surprised if you want to kill me or scream after you read and see how annoying I am.

[JKLM]

I've never really known how to judge Bert since Bestwillcuo was literally impossible to read.

P edit;

You've seemed pretty calm here.

[Bert]

Also, Ffery evidently has a good idea about how I play as town, or so she says (popcorn real-time, and her modded game)

And yet she has no concrete read on me

Even up to this point

My scum game is mini 1462, open 503, open 507 (hydra bertkerberos)


Town games - lots of them - check my wiki

Sorry on phone so not convenient to provide links. Most of my games I replaced into

[fferyllt]

Lol, if fferyllt is actually scum, I am never going to live this down.

Pedit: I wouldn't rule out Jason because I read his meta but ended up null leaning town at best but probably not him. JKLM is definitely not scum. That leaves Bert and Muttley. I am going to check Bert's meta next and Muttley's after that. I am kinda surprised nobody strongly suspects him but

he's

been on my scumdar for a pretty long time.[/quote]

Who is "he"? Bert?

I did some quick review of a few Bert (as Nachopappa) scum games after he started acting paranoid of me. I was mostly looking for that - paranoia, and for tone. He has seemed way more serious-minded in this game than I saw in the scum games I scanned.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

Yeah, I saw your wiki. Any games you haven't included there that you want any of us to check?

Pedit: yeah, bert. Can you elaborate on your thoughts about Bert-meta. Do you have them written down somewhere or anything like that?

[Bert]

All of my games are included in there, except:

Open 500 Popcorn Mafia

I rage quit on Day 6 or 7 so it's not completed

But that's as natural as I get as town

[fferyllt]

Yeah, I saw your wiki. Any games you haven't included there that you want any of us to check?

Pedit: yeah, bert. Can you elaborate on your thoughts about Bert-meta. Do you have them written down somewhere or anything like that?

I wasn't trying to do detailed meta analysis at the time, so no. Just what I put in the thread earlier, and what I've seen of how his play here has continued versus the scum games.

He's like me, in that when he's town, if there is a strong player (or more) he can read playing in the game, he'll build the game around reading those player and then working outward. I think I misinterpreted that tendency in his games that I watched as a more generalized sort of townbloc building, which I also do whether I have a player to build my bloc around or not. I expected to be able to work with him that way in this game, but ran into a wall. The wall surprised me, and I went looking for more examples of that kind of paranoia in older games.

[Bert]

I only work with you if I think you're town

Which I don't feel you are

Plus the games I have worked with people, I have known them from past games

In my old games, I always say I build on familiarity

Popcorn, I knew nacho from all of my prior games to that

Next game will be different if there is a next or, ill have a baseline and can definitely know whether I want to trust u or not

[Bert]

Mini 1460 which I replaced out of, u can see how I vote Nacho and flip flop like a maniac

That's what happens when I can't decide if ure town or not

Here it's worse because I think ure scum

So no, I'm not working with scumreads and joining ur scumdriven wagons lol

[Bert]

In your modded game, I had nacho and wisdom pegged as super obvtown

But u see, I had been scum with both of them in different games,

And multiple as town with them

So there is a reason I trusted them

[JKLM]

Hm.

I'm not sure what to take out of all this.

But it's very good for me to hear you two actually confronting each other.

[Bert]

Uh that's what we have been doing to each other for days

You are now just noticing that...

[fferyllt]

Mini 1460 which I replaced out of, u can see how I vote Nacho and flip flop like a maniac

That's what happens when I can't decide if ure town or not

Here it's worse because I think ure scum

So no, I'm not working with scumreads and joining ur scumdriven wagons lol

Marathon games are terrible for meta, but I've never forgotten the marathon game that you and I played where you had your vote on me, and switched to GiF (who was scum). It was hard for me to guess what caused your switch but I thought it was either my hissing that if you guys were going to mislynch me it had to be that day, or things would not be pretty if I had to defend myself in LYLO, or it was the line of attack I took on GiF. Something I did looked town to you, or something GiF did looked more scummy than me. I believed it was the former.

And I thought that if you could read me in that kind of game with tons of posts happening at once and only 20-30 minutes to decide, that you'd also be able to read me here.

Obviously a bad assumption.

[fferyllt]

And Bert, I was explaining to Falcon why I am not scumreading you. :/