So, what I really do is have to find 2 town out of the five. Or find enough connections to determine blue/red.
I'm sure there is some sort of best color to lynch (like if we lynch blue that puts us at a 2:2 endgame, if we lynch red, they can still crosskill, etc.) but I expect to hear red and blue argue those cases.
I was in the blue position before, and the best you can hope for is to lynch red, then you shoot red while they shoot town, leaving you with a 2:1 lylo.
But they got two votes now, and will vote in a block, as long as town keeps their head out of their ass long enough to find them.
Red, your best scenario is to lynch blue. Assuming nothing stops you, you take it to 2:2 which should give you the win. If you lynch town instead, it goes to 2 town-2 red-1 blue. If you shoot blue, then you will win or be in a 2:1 lylo with town.
Sounds right to me. I think scum hunting in general is going to be our best play, as if we run up blue scum they'll claim as such and we can sort things out then.
There's some weird stuff going on in this game, as I outlined a bit before, and right now I'm mostly sure you (PV) are town. I'm also pretty sure Bulbazak is scum due to the failed vig shot. It just doesn't add up that KK would protect him when he was a clear vig target as the alternate wagon to a town lynch. Sure, people have argued that he'd claimed VT and so KK would have figured he wasn't blocking a PR, but we had a claimed vig. Preserving a claimed VT who'd been scummy enough to be wagoned at the expense of denying a vig town cred doesn't add up. Even if he was working from the assumption Bulbazak was town, he certainly couldn't then have thought either scum team would shoot a potential mislynch at that time.
That leaves two scum, one town from {Nacho, ffullisade, AK} Desperado seemed to think AK and Nacho were possibly scum yesterday. I wish he'd elaborated on why he switched to HD specifically over them. Since Bulbazak is incredibly likely to be red scum, that means the two other scum are on opposite teams. Which is where it gets interesting.
Look at the NK'd players list, leaving out Cephrir since you told us ThAd shot him:
1: Syryana, Red Ryu--we can safely guess red scum killed Red Ryu and so blue scum killed Syryana.
2: EddieFenix, Thor665--no idea here
3: Kublai Khan, ArcAngel9--no idea here
4: Nero Cain, Rena--Rena is the claimed town PR here
5: Baezu, ThAd--ThAd is the claimed town PR here
6: Desperado--unknown whether scum double-targeted or one side was blocked
Nights 4 and 5 in particular--working from the assumption that only Seanald and CTD were scum in the neighborhoods, both sides were staring at minimum four unlynchable players from Night Four on: three of {you, Desperado, ThAd, CTD}, Rena. Blue scum may not have wanted to dive into the neighborhoods at all to maximize the cover for CTD, but both sides should have wanted Rena dead. And red scum should have wanted to start killing off neighbors who were going to be conf-town. So why is only one unlynchable NK'd? Same thing Night Five--I'd have expected both scum teams to shoot in the neighborhoods, never mind the risk of overlapping. But instead shots have been fired at Nero Cain and Baezu? Last night changes things up, but it's been pretty serendipitous for scum before that.
Maybe I'm indulging in extreme paranoia here, but it looks to me like the remaining red and blue scum are able to divvy up the town, so to speak. Like they're predicting where the other team will kill in a way that's pretty hard to do. If we're talking Street Racers, I remember that we worked really hard to avoid kills that might overlap there, and we had almost no obv/conf-town targets during the time I was involved. We avoided Darthe as the town neighbor for ages and let Slandaar go for quite some time. Yet here there are all sorts of juicy targets and no one missteps or even risks the overlapping kill. And you have Nacho and ffullisade super-duper confirming one another as town. It's iffy.
I tend to think that, Desperado's read aside, AK is town. The paranoia from Malakittens, the willingness to quit when there was conflict to preserve a friendship, thinking the hydra was being set up to look bad via the NKs. ffullisade's quick vote makes me wonder though what's going on there though.
Looking at that NK list again, from the early game, it also has a lot of formidable players on there early--Syryana and Red Ryu, EddieFenix, Thor, KK. ArcAngel9 was unlikely to be lynched due to playing to her town meta. People there that would have been problematic for Nacho. And if you look at the wagons on the scum lynches, Nacho was the one who pulled people over to the Seanald wagon--no one was listening to me. Nacho's probably the most assertive player left here, and neither side has wanted to kill him? I get that there's a mindset from some scum that if you leave a skilled player alive long enough town paranoia will off him for you, but the loudest one pushing for Nacho's lynch yesterday IIRC was Desperado--town, not scum.
My take on the game right now is that Bulbazak is red scum. Nacho is looking more and more likely to be scum of some sort. And that leaves AK or ffullisade as the other scum. I think we could sort it out if Bulbazak does flip red scum based on how Nacho-AK-ffullisade processed the info that there'd been a failed kill on Bulbazak and Seanald had flipped red scum doc and ThAd determined that he'd only lost a shot on one night.
I don't know, I want to look at the wagons on the lynches. Some of this might be rampant paranoia, and maybe we're still better off hunting scummy individuals. But like I said above, if the one red-one blue scum are in Nacho, AK, ffullisade, we won't care which color we lynch at that point.
PV, where do you think the scum are? Or if it's more useful for you, where are your town reads right now? Bottom line, I think Bulbazak should be the lynch today. I can't find an explanation for him surviving ThAd's vig shot as town barring KK being asleep at the wheel, and I don't tend to assume incompetence when there's another more likely explanation.
ffullisade: AK, Nacho, and Bulbazak haven't even checked in yet. Which actually makes me suspicious of that whole group, as I'd expect scum to want to see the lay of the land before picking a line of attack.
ffullisade, I know I sound like a broken record, but PLEASE explain to me how, knowing that ThAd's shot on Bulbazak was absorbed by protection, only a completely inept JK would use a night action to hinder a vig proving himself, and red scum likely had the only other protective role, Bulbazak isn't scum. I get that people say KK had a town read on Bulbazak, but keep in mind that was also before Slandaar's flip made Bulbazak the counterwagon to a town lynch. Flips -> information -> changed reads overnight.
In post 5980, Bulbazak wrote:PA is blue. HD is red along with AK. If we lynch blue, we eliminate a NK. Vote PA.
^ scum along with ak mebbe?
I dunno I have been trying to figure why nacho has been staying away from them.
ak I swear to god you dropped a special tell early on and then called me out for role fishing and you are not dead?
numbers say we are at 2 - 1 - 3 scum scum town.
town need to find each other and I really do think it is within the /ohgodkillmenowgroup
that there is not another single vote on ak tells me she is red scum.
and makes me waffle between nacho and perv.
Guess you didn't quit the hydra afterall.
Just because you think I or Mara dropped a special tell doesn't mean we did. Just because we aren't dead because you think we are a possible pr doesn't make us scum. The fact your slot is voting us based on this special tell is fucking bullshit.
The fact you aren't thinking about why we are still here in LyLo is beyond me. Our actions haven't been super town like. Are you really expecting us to get Nk'd so easily? The fact you or nacho aren't dead is beyond me though because flat out your slot has been freaking town to me the whole game. The fact we are fighting nail to nail against each other gives scum a great reason to keep us both alive because hey our stupid little fight that keep going longer and longer might actually give them a win if we are stupid enough to cross vote each other in LyLo.
In post 6007, penguin_alien wrote:ffullisade, I know I sound like a broken record, but PLEASE explain to me how, knowing that ThAd's shot on Bulbazak was absorbed by protection, only a completely inept JK would use a night action to hinder a vig proving himself, and red scum likely had the only other protective role, Bulbazak isn't scum. I get that people say KK had a town read on Bulbazak, but keep in mind that was also before Slandaar's flip made Bulbazak the counterwagon to a town lynch. Flips -> information -> changed reads overnight.
I'm thinking about what you've said PA.
I'm assuming 3 town. And those 3 town are here for two reasons. We've appeared lynchable, or at least more lynchable than some of the recent night kills. And our reads are wrong enough to contribute to a mislynch.
Which makes me want to reexamine every town read I've got.
In post 6006, penguin_alien wrote:ffullisade: AK, Nacho, and Bulbazak haven't even checked in yet. Which actually makes me suspicious of that whole group, as I'd expect scum to want to see the lay of the land before picking a line of attack.
:/
or, maybe we're busy?
I havn't posted anywhere in the past three days until today personally
What AK is saying is something that was on my mind when I thought HD was going to flip blue scum. If he'd been blue, red scum would have come in at LyLo today. Given that they were an intact team for so much of the game, they had to have been planning who they wanted around. And Nacho set things up yesterday if he's red scum so that even if only he survived and was last scum standing at 3p LyLo, he would have you two (AK and ffullisade) right there. Especially ffullisade--no offense intended, just that he's been assuring you that he sees you as oh-so-town, and it's flattering to be read 'correctly.' It even seemed like he was setting up both me and AK to be mislynches, with the whole reading us as town but having doubt set in without any change in analysis beyond presumed PoE at that hypothetical point.
It's late, I'm not sure I'm making much sense here.
ffullisade, you said you're nervous about PV. Based on stuff from last page, I can see a scenario where he's red scum, but it's weak. I'm also not thinking that the push to lynch him two days ago fits in with that theory very well.
P-edit: Sure, I know it's a smaller group left alive and people's schedules get crazy, stuff happens, especially for the significant part of the site that's going back to school around now. I do believe there is scum in that group though, and said scum probably is avoiding getting involved until we show our cards.
In post 6006, penguin_alien wrote:ffullisade: AK, Nacho, and Bulbazak haven't even checked in yet. Which actually makes me suspicious of that whole group, as I'd expect scum to want to see the lay of the land before picking a line of attack.
I'm going through ISOs, like I always do during Mylo/Lylo. My reread of yours + Baby Spice's ISO confirms my blue scum read.
In post 6007, penguin_alien wrote:ffullisade, I know I sound like a broken record, but PLEASE explain to me how, knowing that ThAd's shot on Bulbazak was absorbed by protection, only a completely inept JK would use a night action to hinder a vig proving himself, and red scum likely had the only other protective role, Bulbazak isn't scum. I get that people say KK had a town read on Bulbazak, but keep in mind that was also before Slandaar's flip made Bulbazak the counterwagon to a town lynch. Flips -> information -> changed reads overnight.
KK argued with me a lot after my plan to have CTD protected. Then there was that whole deal with the Slandaar wagon that happened at the end of the day. I'm actually not that surprised that KK JK'd me.
In post 6012, penguin_alien wrote:
ffullisade, you said you're nervous about PV. Based on stuff from last page, I can see a scenario where he's red scum, but it's weak. I'm also not thinking that the push to lynch him two days ago fits in with that theory very well.
PV is conf. town! Why are you even softly suggesting PV-scum? He's not being lynched. Period.
Going to sleep, and then back to ISOs.
Bulbazak is so town that everytime someone votes him Mastin coughs blood.
You think KK protected you (and it would have been protection, not a roleblock, since you'd claimed VT) after seeing that you were the counterwagon to a town lynch? Please elaborate on where you planned to have CTD protected, and what was the deal with the Slandaar wagon at the end of the day that you think is relevant? I've read back about ten pages from the Slandaar lynch, and I"m not seeing what you're talking about.
I'm not thinking PV is scum. I'm asking ffullisade why they have doubts because it takes a lot of mental gymnastics to see how they could be, and the case collapses when considered as a whole. If I'd had a scum read on PV, I'd have helped push his lynch Day Five. Hell, if I was blue scum I sure wouldn't have been defending PV and trying to derail his wagon in favor of the town considering where scum was in the neighborhoods more carefully than any of the presented arguments were doing. Yes, yes, WIFOM and all, but PV was at least at L-2 with people strongly in favor of lynching from the neighborhoods. Pushing that wagon over wouldn't have been hard.
In post 6017, penguin_alien wrote:I'm not thinking PV is scum. I'm asking ffullisade why they have doubts because it takes a lot of mental gymnastics to see how they could be, and the case collapses when considered as a whole. If I'd had a scum read on PV, I'd have helped push his lynch Day Five. Hell, if I was blue scum I sure wouldn't have been defending PV and trying to derail his wagon in favor of the town considering where scum was in the neighborhoods more carefully than any of the presented arguments were doing. Yes, yes, WIFOM and all, but PV was at least at L-2 with people strongly in favor of lynching from the neighborhoods. Pushing that wagon over wouldn't have been hard.
I am not thinking PV is scum. Between CTD's flip and his posts since then, I've put at least that possibility aside.
I think scum are within {AK, bulba, (Nacho or you)} and two of those have been solid town to me for a long while.
If you have anything to claim, then please fucking claim it.
You can answer our question first.
Bring Mollie back in the thread. I want her to reply to my post.
Sorry, you get to deal with me for now.
See, I figured if if you're town and you had ANYTHING AT ALL that could help narrow things down here at the doorstep of a town loss you would have put it on the goddamn table today. Instead you're being coy.
