Mini 1492: Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets GAME OVER

[MSG]

F16, have a look at CDB's post 445 and at fferylt's voting pattern and see if it makes you scratch your chin

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

What are you implying?

[MSG]

she only voted twice in the day and managed to avoid having a vote on at the end of d1.

cdb suggested the basilisk should be mafia, not SK (which makes sense to me,) but would need some mechanism to be released

it struck me the 2 things could be connected

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

She is always deliberative with her votes, nothing unusual. I don't think the lack of a vote at the end was intentional. Both these things are null.

[fferyllt]

Not in detail, going to sleep soon.

I can't see scum motivation in your attempt to move the lynch off marquis at the end of day 1 and I had a town read on your predecessor. Most of Syr's stances day 1 made sense to me. Toomai answering Jason's question pinged a little, though I see players do that sort of thing frequently. But, I feel like most of his lines of questioning on day 1 were pretty shallow and lacked follow-up.

[fferyllt]

she only voted twice in the day and managed to avoid having a vote on at the end of d1.

cdb suggested the basilisk should be mafia, not SK (which makes sense to me,) but would need some mechanism to be released

it struck me the 2 things could be connected

These are not 24 hour game days. I've become an Ent at MS.

[MSG]

what do you think of CDB's theory about the basilisk?

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

I agree about it being mafia. It is in Voldemort's control and is unlikely to be a separate faction. I haven't yet formed an opinion about the release mechanism.

[fferyllt]

That the basilisk is more likely mafia? Probably. I wouldn't assume an SK in a game this size without some evidence in the way of a night kill.

[MSG]

StubbsKVM, how do you know you were role-blocked?

[penguin_alien]

Oh and starting to doubt Channel's towniness. It should be pretty obvious that I wasn't "excited" about having to claim, since I have been trying to throw Amrun and him off of me all game with not-so-subtle hints. Channel seems less sincere; Amrun just seems to be too stuck on how awesome he is at reading people.

Not seeing why LnGrrrR would start the process of undermining CDB's towniness then NK him.

she only voted twice in the day and managed to avoid having a vote on at the end of d1.

cdb suggested the basilisk should be mafia, not SK (which makes sense to me,) but would need some mechanism to be released

it struck me the 2 things could be connected

In terms of the basilisk, it's likely to be part of the Mafia--just like Voldemort, Quirrell, and the Troll were all part of the same plot, the Basilisk was tied to Tom Riddle and...not really sure about a third option. Lockhart could be an antagonist, but I'd expect him to be some kind of weird third party in that case.

If the Basilisk victims are in the game, maybe if the Basilisk player does a NK on one of them something happens, like a no-reveal.

Still more skeptical of Stubbs based on game design factors, but it's weak. More odd is that he'd be roleblocked at all. An investigation is the first thing he'd logically use, and the earlier he uses it, the better for scum: he outs his investigation, which he had to pick a target for with less info. And from being a scum rolecop last game, I believe Nexus's mod policy is that if you have an X-shot role and it's blocked, you retain the shot. Letting his shot get through now is better for scum than later.

I tend to think scum were on the Marquis wagon early, another factor for the Stubbs scum read. Toomai jumping in to 'help' Stubbs doesn't look good, but it's not a strong tell.

Jason keeping mum tracks.

[LnGrrrR]

Fwiw, the reason I thought the Basilisk might be an SK is because it states in my role that if the Basilisk is killed, I become a 1 shot regular doctor; as long as the Basilisk is alive, I can continue to try and protect until I am successful.

Given that no 2nd body hit the floor, I think it is safe to say that the Mafia have the basilisk. Whoever that is, his NK is obviously stronger than a normal one, since the doc protect won't truly "save" the person, but stump them instead. (Some might say that's "better" as an unkillable confirmed townie, but it does take a vote away.)

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

LngrrrR read: Likely Town

I lean town on LngrrrR based on his meta. He has two finished town games and he is playing here a lot like how he played there and there are several similarities. For example in Open 945 where he is town, he questions players for information. The first instance of this happens in post 103 where he votes fuzzybutternut for a lack of response to his questions. He even claims that fuzzy was buddying up to Hiraki and that he would like to see the flip of one to determine the flip of another. His 113 continues along the same line where he has a whole series of questions to Fuzzy. A lot of them are very aggressively toned leading a player to call him "overzealous." . In 240, in response to FOS, he says “Would you care to point out actual differences between my vote compared to Ravens? Or is this another gut feeling with no analysis whatsoever to back it up?” This shows that he really wants to understand why he is being FOSsed. 250, he asks for a case on him. His main frustration with fuzzy seems to be a lack of interaction and a case. LngrrrrR as town likes to analyze how something happened and remark on it: he responds to a wagon on another player here in a similar way to what he did here.

What I take from this is that LngrrrrR clearly wants all of his posts responded to. He is slightly overzealous in demanding responses and answers to all of his questions. The demand for explanation in 55 matches his general tenacity as town where he wants explanations and answers to his questions. 63 he again demands an explanation.

His lack of a real push on Amrun based on the fact that "Amrun at least has a case" matches up with his beliefs and style of scumhunting as town. He gets less annoyed by people pushing cases than by those who decline to provide reasoning or go by their gut.

In his other town game, =21447#p4977643] Newbie 1368, his also contain a lot of questions and demands for explanation. 93 is an example of that trend with multiple questions being asked. It continues in 95 and 97

His annoyance in 133 that people have called him wishy-washy without putting together a case is indicative of a normal town playstyle. His attempt at speculating the reasons he has been voted for is also normal as is his desire for cases and explanations.

The one thing that bothered me is that didn't have a real answer to his claim of wierdness when he got three votes on him quickly since he was usually able to explain his thoughts quite well as town. However, his reaction overall matches his town reaction of questioning and asking for explanations while not really going too hard at the one person who actually had a case (Amrun).

I buy his claim especially since there is no doc counterclaim. The theme of it matches. Justin sees the Basilisk through Nick and therefore gets petrified rather than dying. Although if Nexus is providing free fake-claims, the last point would be null. I find the lack of a cc more compelling evidence though. I am not absolutely certain that he is town (lack of scum-meta is a major problem), but I am about 80% sure he is town and don't think we should lynch LngrrrR. Add the fact that he hasn't actually played any scum games on mafiascum, I find it unlikely that he would emulate his town meta so closely.

I'll check Jason's and Stubb's meta next. In the meantime, Jason and Amrun, I'd like to hear your thoughts on this.

[RachMarie]

It is probably a modifier on one of the Mafia players duh. I have Lnnggrr as a town read.

fery yes I have been focusing a lot on setup because I am trying to figure which of our claimed/soft claimed PRs is lying scum instead of town.

need to look at some ISOs

[LnGrrrR]

Here is what I don't get... If Stubbs was roleblocked, why weren't Jason or I killed? Scum trying to introduce WIFOM and have town mislynch? Just throws me off.

[Toomai]

Here is what I don't get... If Stubbs was roleblocked, why weren't Jason or I killed? Scum trying to introduce WIFOM and have town mislynch? Just throws me off.

Yeah this is rather suspicious. Leaving both claimed JOATs alive for the mindgames isn't hard to believe, but the uncountered 1-shot Doctor is somewhat. Maybe they were fishing for an unclaimed PR? That would presume that both JOAT claims are town, which I currently don't think is likely.

[Amrun]

catch up tomorrow

[LnGrrrR]

@Jason, have you explained why you thought Amrun is scummy yet?

[StubbsKVM]

Should I claim my action?
I have a theory, but it involves a lot of wine...

[LnGrrrR]

Eh, some info is better than none Stubbs. Shoot.

[LnGrrrR]

Is anyone actually playing this game?

@mod, can we get some prods?

[Nexus]

No? Nobody is within prod range yet

[LnGrrrR]

Blah. There's way too many people prod-dodging then.

@Toomai, Jason, Amrun, Syryana, please do something useful. List some scum, ask some questions, bug someone.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

I can't really figure out which of Stubbs or Jason is scummier. Thinking on it, I wouldn't rule out both being town either so it doesn't make sense to focus exclusively on them until we get more information from flips.

Re-reading Penguin_Alien, I like a lot of her later posts and her development of suspicion on Stubbs also makes sense. I am somewhat null on her until she posts more content.

Toomai's posts don't make sense at all. 79, he votes Jason asking for "something real." 124 is terrible where he asks ffery what the point is of having a look for passive voice in lngrrrR's town game. I think it is fairly obvious: if LngrrrR generally uses passive voice as town, then it becomes a null tell. LngrrrR was also the hot topic for discussion at the time, so checking up his meta is hardly a distraction. The amount of null reads he has in 181 is troubling coupled with no attempt at developing any reads. 183 is just hoping someone else makes things happen. I really don't like 186 - pre-emptively justifying why he is dead weight in this game by referring to his other games. If he was dead weight before, makes no sense to not try and improve. 271 where he says Jason has been more helpful doesn't sit right either. Jason had not done anything up until that point other than promise reads.

VOTE: Toomai

[LnGrrrR]

Sure, I can get behind this.

VOTE: Toomai

Please do something.