Xenogears Mafia (Game Over)

Desperado · Post Post #3775 (ISO) » Wed Sep 11, 2013 3:13 pm

In post 3769, BROseidon wrote:And there was a pretty fucking strong push to get people off of Rach's wagon. Andy and Nick BOTH got counterwagoned.

So who were the scum pushing those counterwagons?

Ghostlin · Post Post #3776 (ISO) » Wed Sep 11, 2013 3:14 pm

In post 3772, Desperado wrote:This was the progression of Varsoon's nick read:

Scum, scum, scum, scum, WAIT HE'S REALLY COOL LET'S TRY THIS GAMBIT INSTEAD, nope he's town now hahaha

Also check out these three posts:

In post 3571, Faster Than Light wrote:Yeah.
What Nick has to say about Mala right now, on his L-1 deathbed, is priceless. Regardless of who we lynch today, it'll give a shitload of content to work with moving towards tomorrow.

-V

In post 3573, Faster Than Light wrote:Oh, no, if he doesn't deliver his Mala case before the deadline, I will hammer him.

-V

In post 3661, Faster Than Light wrote:It's null to me. :/
Bullshit.

He actually explains this three posts later. Since a really good Mala case might have saved his ass; it's against Nick's wincon to not post it (as scum, self preservation motivation), it's also against his motivation not to post it considering we could be looking at his case to ascertain and push Mala further if she is scum (as a Town motivation). I can understand, since FTL didn't...oh, wait, he did.

Three fucking posts later.

Not in as much detail, mind, but I can see what the fuck he's going for.

Nick was playing so fucking poor by not providing the case, I wonder if he got handed the suicidal Townie role PM on Day 2; but the whole thing is such a clusterfuck it's not alignment indicative. Which, again, leaves you with the fact that Varshoon didn't shit himself when the gambit didn't work, which is not something I see Varshoon, town or scum ever doing. You're grasping at straws.

zMuffinMan · Post Post #3777 (ISO) » Wed Sep 11, 2013 3:15 pm

@BRO,

Oh, you have the entire D1 nick wagon listed in your town reads. How was that a counterwagon?

Desperado · Post Post #3778 (ISO) » Wed Sep 11, 2013 3:19 pm

In post 3776, Ghostlin wrote:He actually explains this three posts later. Since a really good Mala case might have saved his ass; it's against Nick's wincon to not post it (as scum, self preservation motivation), it's also against his motivation not to post it considering we could be looking at his case to ascertain and push Mala further if she is scum (as a Town motivation). I can understand, since FTL didn't...oh, wait, he did. Three fucking posts later. Not in as much detail, mind, but I can see what the fuck he's going for.

Yeah, I saw that. It explains why it's null, but it doesn't explain why he didn't follow through on what he said he would do if presented with the exact situation that actually happened. Instead he still held on to his dumb gambit that would require Nacho to claim for no reason and finally hammered him a couple days later.

Ghostlin · Post Post #3779 (ISO) » Wed Sep 11, 2013 3:21 pm

In post 3778, Desperado wrote:
In post 3776, Ghostlin wrote:He actually explains this three posts later. Since a really good Mala case might have saved his ass; it's against Nick's wincon to not post it (as scum, self preservation motivation), it's also against his motivation not to post it considering we could be looking at his case to ascertain and push Mala further if she is scum (as a Town motivation). I can understand, since FTL didn't...oh, wait, he did. Three fucking posts later. Not in as much detail, mind, but I can see what the fuck he's going for.
Yeah, I saw that. It explains why it's null, but it doesn't explain why he didn't follow through on what he said he would do if presented with the exact situation that actually happened. Instead he still held on to his dumb gambit that would require Nacho to claim for no reason and finally hammered him a couple days later.

And that's alignment indicative because...?

Desperado · Post Post #3780 (ISO) » Wed Sep 11, 2013 3:23 pm

It's disingenuous.

zMuffinMan · Post Post #3781 (ISO) » Wed Sep 11, 2013 3:23 pm

hey desp,

your suspicion of ghost seems to be predicated on ftl being scum (correct me if im wrong) so why are you voting him and not ftl?

Ghostlin · Post Post #3782 (ISO) » Wed Sep 11, 2013 3:24 pm

No, seriously. I'm asking you try harder than 'Nacho and Nick wouldn't cooperate with FTL's gambit to the point Nacho said 'lol, no' and so FTL didn't shit themselves in disgust, hence FTL's scum, and Ghostlin's scum because he's

chainsaw

defending them.'

Nothing you have said has dispelled the almost strange mindset that Var brings to mafia games.

Desperado · Post Post #3783 (ISO) » Wed Sep 11, 2013 3:34 pm

In post 3781, zMuffinMan wrote:hey desp,

your suspicion of ghost seems to be predicated on ftl being scum (correct me if im wrong) so why are you voting him and not ftl?

Too many of my townreads think FTL is town. I tried starting a wagon on them yesterday but no one bit and its more of the same today. Do you think I should be wasting my time trying to achieve a lynch that realistically isn't going to happen?

Desperado · Post Post #3784 (ISO) » Wed Sep 11, 2013 3:35 pm

In post 3782, Ghostlin wrote:No, seriously. I'm asking you try harder than 'Nacho and Nick wouldn't cooperate with FTL's gambit to the point Nacho said 'lol, no' and so FTL didn't shit themselves in disgust, hence FTL's scum, and Ghostlin's scum because he's
chainsaw
defending them.'

Nothing you have said has dispelled the almost strange mindset that Var brings to mafia games.

FTL is scum for a lot more than that. I guess it's just convenient for you to ignore that I've had them as scum for quite some time right now?

BROseidon · Post Post #3785 (ISO) » Wed Sep 11, 2013 3:35 pm

In post 3774, zMuffinMan wrote:i'm saying the reason you thought that was shit. which makes your vote on nick shit. the thing is, you seemed to have so much more conviction that mala is scum, but you were perfectly fine with sitting on a nick vote because you thought one of bnb/nick could be scum. . . . . . . and if you were so convinced that mala is scum, why did you not take every opportunity to show why you thought this when mala was actually posting. why not talk about the posts from her that you thought were bad? why were you ignoring posts like 3306/3308 if they were so bad?

1) Why was the reason shit?

2) Because plenty of other people are also scumreading Mala.

BROseidon · Post Post #3786 (ISO) » Wed Sep 11, 2013 3:37 pm

In post 3774, zMuffinMan wrote:i suppose you could argue that she didn't need to strongly counter-push because others were doing it, but then your case would boil down to "mala was wrong, so i think she's scum"

She hasn't strongly tried to do anything. Does that not ring as suspect to you at all?

BROseidon · Post Post #3787 (ISO) » Wed Sep 11, 2013 3:52 pm

In post 3775, Desperado wrote:
In post 3769, BROseidon wrote:And there was a pretty fucking strong push to get people off of Rach's wagon. Andy and Nick BOTH got counterwagoned.
So who were the scum pushing those counterwagons?

Let me go look at the wagons:

Wagon on Rach starts with Muffin/Desp/Andy. I want to reread this part of the game to look for any potential bus that I missed before.

Counter on FTL with thez, Mala, Skull, TD, Nick. Thez and Nick have both flipped town, and Mutt is a strong townread. Mala is currently my main scumread, and I've grown wary of TD, so that makes me feel pretty good here, so Mala>TD in terms of likeliness of scum pushing counterwagon.

Counter on mastin of Venmar, TF, myself, nick, TD. Venmar is currently a scumread and I'm wary of both TD and TF. Venmar>TF>TD

Mastin wagon adds Skull, don't care about that because I'm pretty sure Mutt is town.

Nick always had a bit of suspicion on him, but now is where his wagon starts to pick up a bit. Looking at it, I think it's town-driven. Votecount 1.7 has mastin as the only potential scum pushing that wagon.

Counter on Andy then forms. BnB, SoS, NS are the first three on it, and they're all town. Mala and TF could be scum trying to push a town counter-wagon further, which would fit with the FTL and mastin wagons.

Andy wagon gains Rach, so there's scum for sure >.>

Mac joins Andy wagon, which is another person I'm wary of. He's more likely town than Mala or TF, though.

BnB re-pushes nick wagon. Looks town driven. Mastin>FTL for scum there

TF was early on the Andy wagon and then late to the Rach wagon. Let me go find that image of a bus again...

Looking back at the vote counts, TF seemed to be on nearly all the non-Rach wagons of the day, not joining the Rach wagon until the very end. That looks really bad because it suggests scum trying to push every available option before bussing a partner. TD also looks bad for similar reasons (minus the jumping on at the end part), and Mala and Venmar both pushed counterwagons a bit (Venmar ended with his vote in a shit place despite the lynch occurring near deadline), although not quite as hard, it seems.

BROseidon · Post Post #3788 (ISO) » Wed Sep 11, 2013 3:54 pm

In post 3777, zMuffinMan wrote:Oh, you have the entire D1 nick wagon listed in your town reads. How was that a counterwagon?

I'd forgotten who was actually on the wagon. I'm sorry for not remember everybody's votes from day 1. Oh wait, no I'm not.

zMuffinMan · Post Post #3789 (ISO) » Wed Sep 11, 2013 4:19 pm

desp wrote:Do you think I should be wasting my time trying to achieve a lynch that realistically isn't going to happen?

do you realistically think a ghost lynch is going to happen? it probably has

less

support than a ftl lynch.

bro wrote:1) Why was the reason shit?

because your reason boiled down to nothing more than that you thought nick vs bnb was TvS. this is not a good reason to vote nick. if you think it is, then i have nothing more to say to you about this. you can claim "gamestate" and other bullshit reasons for thinking this could be true, but the fact that no one agreed with you about this should have clued you in that you were wrong. ALSO the reason is shit because you seem to have had far more reason for thinking mala is scum, yet you never tried to push her seriously after the first few posts of d1.

bro wrote:She hasn't strongly tried to do anything. Does that not ring as suspect to you at all?

it is suspect in the sense that anyone who does this is being somewhat antitown. it is far from a scum tell, though. i felt kind of lost d2, and i know the mollie head of bnb also said she had the same feelings about the game d2. i may have been pushing my suspicion strongly d1, but i played pretty shit d2. does that make me scum?

i attribute mala's lack of strong pushes more to someone trying to figure out the game and not being confident, rather than scum coasting. either is possible, i suppose, but i see no strong reason to suspect the latter.

zMuffinMan · Post Post #3790 (ISO) » Wed Sep 11, 2013 4:20 pm

first few posts of d2*

zMuffinMan · Post Post #3791 (ISO) » Wed Sep 11, 2013 4:27 pm

D2BRO: i think mala is scum for x, y, z, BUT i think one of nick and bnb is scum, and bnb is pushing a nick lynch, so i will join bnb and vote nick, even though nobody agrees that my reasoning for thinking one of bnb/nick is scum is sound.

if you think this isn't an accurate representation, tell me why.

BROseidon · Post Post #3792 (ISO) » Wed Sep 11, 2013 4:58 pm

In post 3791, zMuffinMan wrote:D2BRO: i think mala is scum for x, y, z, BUT i think one of nick and bnb is scum, and bnb is pushing a nick lynch, so i will join bnb and vote nick, even though nobody agrees that my reasoning for thinking one of bnb/nick is scum is sound.

if you think this isn't an accurate representation, tell me why.

You're missing the parts where I townread bnb, and the momentum swung to the nick wagon.

I'm sorry that I compromised on a lynch to read a scumread over a scumread. Wait...

Desperado · Post Post #3793 (ISO) » Wed Sep 11, 2013 4:59 pm

In post 3789, zMuffinMan wrote:do you realistically think a ghost lynch is going to happen? it probably has less support than a ftl lynch.

I guess we're about to find out.

BROseidon · Post Post #3794 (ISO) » Wed Sep 11, 2013 5:03 pm

In post 3789, zMuffinMan wrote:because your reason boiled down to nothing more than that you thought nick vs bnb was TvS. this is not a good reason to vote nick. if you think it is, then i have nothing more to say to you about this. you can claim "gamestate" and other bullshit reasons for thinking this could be true, but the fact that no one agreed with you about this should have clued you in that you were wrong. ALSO the reason is shit because you seem to have had far more reason for thinking mala is scum, yet you never tried to push her seriously after the first few posts of d1.

I guess you have nothing else to say, then.

And no, the fact that nobody else agreed with me should not clue me in to it being wrong, considering that entire towns have been duped a multitude of times. In the last Xeno game, only Venmar thought Rach was scum, and had to use his PR to catch her. NOBODY thought Orc was scum. AJ and Jiffy were the only people to scumread me. Nobody scumread GIF, and I had to shoot him to get him killed.

Everybody else disagreeing in a game built around hidden information, where a group of people are intentionally trying to mislead everyone else, is not a cause for concern. I'd be more concerned if there weren't dissent.

zMuffinMan · Post Post #3795 (ISO) » Wed Sep 11, 2013 5:26 pm

BRO wrote:You're missing the parts where I townread bnb, and the momentum swung to the nick wagon.

YEAH I AM MISSING THAT BECAUSE IT DIDN'T FUCKING HAPPEN.

JUST TO BE SURE I'M NOT MISTAKEN HERE, I WENT THROUGH YOUR ISO AND TRIED TO FIND SOMEWHERE, ANYWHERE, THAT YOU EVEN IMPLIED YOU THOUGHT BNB WAS TOWN. HERE IS A QUOTE FROM AFTER YOU VOTED NICK

BRO wrote:I would feel like that would have to be contingent on BnB scum, which disagrees with the fact that I find nick scummier right now and I think they're mutually-exclusive as scum.

YOU DON'T SAY YOU THINK SOMEONE IS SCUMMIER THAN SOMEONE YOU'RE READING AS TOWN, YOU SAY YOU THINK BNB IS TOWN.

AND HEY, GUESS WHAT, I CAN'T FIND YOU CALLING BNB TOWN ANYWHERE. SO WHY DON'T YOU SHOW ME WHAT I MISSED?

caps lock was probably unnecessary but idgaf

zMuffinMan · Post Post #3796 (ISO) » Wed Sep 11, 2013 5:29 pm

bro wrote:And no, the fact that nobody else agreed with me should not clue me in to it being wrong, considering that entire towns have been duped a multitude of times.

it's not that nobody agreed with you. it's that nobody agreed with your reasons. because your reasons were that... you couldn't see them both being town? or something?

zMuffinMan · Post Post #3797 (ISO) » Wed Sep 11, 2013 5:35 pm

In post 2472, BROseidon wrote:Okay one of BnB or Nick is definitely scum at this point. I don’t see this not being the case.

In post 2541, BROseidon wrote:
In post 2537, Nachomamma8 wrote:here are your interactions with rach + the hammer vote
HOLY FUCK I SAID I THINK ONE OF YOU IS SCUM. YOU MADE A GOOD CASE AGAINST HIM, BUT THE CONTEXT OF THAT CASE (BEING COUNTER TO THE RACH WAGON) MAKES ME EYE IT SUSPICIOUSLY. YOU WOULD KNOW HER ALIGNMENT IF YOU'RE HER PARTNER, WHICH IS, Y'KNOW, WHAT I'M SAYING IS PLAUSIBLE. YOU SEEM TO BE FAILING TO UNDERSTAND HOW I AM VIEWING THIS GAME: SCUM KNOW WHAT'S GOING ON. SCUM TRY TO CONSTRUCT A NARRATIVE THAT LEADS TO THEIR WIN. TOWN'S JOB IS TO FIGURE OUT THIS NARRATIVE TO FIGURE OUT WHO THE SCUM ARE. YOU AND NICK BOTH MAKE SENSE BASED ON WHAT HAPPENED, DEPENDING ON WHICH OF TWO VERY LIKELY NARRATIVES WAS IN PLAY.

In post 3027, BROseidon wrote:The reason why I think one of nick/BnB is scum is because of the case bnb have been bringing against nick combined with the timing of the case. The case is solid; a lot of people nominally scumreading someone but not really doing anything about it is suspicious as fuck, but they brought it up counter to the Rach wagon. It's either BnB have a really solid case, or BnB are scum who've created a really solid case, which they tried to use to derail a lynch on a buddy and are now trying to use to push through a mislynch (I'm leaning towards the former right now).

so yeah these are your reasons for thinking one of nick and BnB is scum.

it boils down to you thinking that nick

could

have been a counterwagon to RM, but maybe it wasn't, and maybe nick was actually scum.

the biggest problem i have here is that you're just positing a possibility with no actual reasoning to think that one of them had to be scum. BnB's case on nick wasn't even good (i pretty much dismantled every argument they put forth against nick D1 and was met with majiffy going "nahuh ur dum")

it's even worse in hindsight since we now know they're both town.

BROseidon · Post Post #3798 (ISO) » Wed Sep 11, 2013 5:40 pm

In post 3795, zMuffinMan wrote:YOU DON'T SAY YOU THINK SOMEONE IS SCUMMIER THAN SOMEONE YOU'RE READING AS TOWN, YOU SAY YOU THINK BNB IS TOWN.

I think one of X or Y is scum.

I think X is scum.

Therefore I think Y is...

Please tell me you have basic critical reading skills.

BROseidon · Post Post #3799 (ISO) » Wed Sep 11, 2013 5:42 pm

In post 3797, zMuffinMan wrote:the biggest problem i have here is that you're just positing a possibility with no actual reasoning to think that one of them had to be scum. BnB's case on nick wasn't even good (i pretty much dismantled every argument they put forth against nick D1 and was met with majiffy going "nahuh ur dum")

And I thought it was solid, because it made sense. Scum not jumping on the nick wagon now that we know nick is town is surprising.