Mini 1492: Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets GAME OVER

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

ffery, I like your case on Penguin. I'll check through her meta to see if she generally goes for low hanging fruit as scum.
______________________

Right now, I am very sure of Toomai being town. LngrrrR is also very likely town. I had a strong townread on Amrun but am not as sure anymore because of the lack of posts. I want to see how she responds to the later posts but still quite comfortably town. Stubbs, I think is town but I'll need to read his meta in more detail to corroborate that. I like ffery as town based on the last post but I need to double-check Penguin's meta as well. If I am right about all these players (still not entirely sure on the last two), that leaves 3 scum and 2 town in the remaining players:

- Penguin, RachMarie, JasonWazza, Syryana, MSG

[fferyllt]

Yeah, I leaning strongly town on Toomai based simply on the unique and effort-intensive scumhunting approach his VCA and his graph demonstrate. I want to check some of his scum games. F16, have you already done that?

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

He doesn't have any scumgames. But the fact that he does have a graph and been doing all this behind-the-scenes work and not saying a word about it until asked makes me near-certain that he is town. Also, all of my initial reasons for suspecting him are null-tells (he is self-deprecating in a lot of games and has trouble coming up with reads) which really made me do a complete 180.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

@ ffery, why is RachMarie town?

[fferyllt]

Marquis do you ever plan on contributing something other than your one note song of "Rach is scum"?

What do you think of Jason?

What do you think of Amrun?

What do you think of anyone else actually?

This post felt like quintessential town rach to me all the way down to exasperation in the final question.

Her posts late day 1 and day 2 so far have chewed the edges of my read. :/ I'm not leaning as strongly town as I was at the time of the quoted post. I also felt like Marquis was coming off strongly town later on day 1 and it didn't look like Rach was adjusting to the new data.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

Okay, makes sense.

[LnGrrrR]

/barn Ffery on Rach, including her lack of posting dropping her to leantown/null. Ffery and Toomai jump into my town pile (that's a lot of work for scum to do re Toomai, not saying scum can't do work but there are better places for pressure now). I will be curious to hear what Syr thinks of Ffery's case. While I think the case comes from a townie perspective, Im not totally sold on it; enough of those posts sounded towny enough to me to not have PA under great suspicion yet.

UNVOTE:

Not liking Jason at all much. Would like to see what Amrun thinks... Been quite quiet toDay.

[JasonWazza]

@Stubbs, did you lose your shot, or do you get to keep it since you were roleblocked?

Seriously guys, how is this rolefishing NOT MOTHER FUCKING SCUM?

[LnGrrrR]

@Jason, you're a horrible player and you have done nothing.

Have you figured out a reason for claiming Amrun is scum yet? Oh and I guess your theory is that Amrun and I just decided to his way other from the jump for an entire day?

What have YOU done that makes you town hm? Do you think that just yelling out random statements is helpful?

If you are town, prove it. Either give us info, or scum hunt. Because as long as you are acting like this, I am going to protect Stubbs, or even take a chance at protecting a random townie, then protect someone who is so ridiculously anti-town.

Your assertion that you won't share the info you learned toDay makes no sense. What if you are the NK toNight? Then your investigation is wasted. And considering that there are two JOAT claims, proving that at least ONE of them is town would go a long way towards helping to analyze the wagons. But hey, you haven't been helpin town all game, why start now?

[LnGrrrR]

Oh and you ignored my question .. Why didnt you mention your alignment in your claim?

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

@Stubbs, did you lose your shot, or do you get to keep it since you were roleblocked?

Seriously guys, how is this rolefishing NOT MOTHER FUCKING SCUM?

Why is it any more likely that he would do that as scum as opposed to town? I can see the town motivation in asking for details so that he could get a better understanding of StubbsKVM's affiliation, and lock him into a claim so he can't wiggle out later if scum and can't adjust his claim for convenience as time goes by.

If scum have a roleblocker, it makes sense for scum to ask whether 1X abilities are lost upon a roleblock before they use that roleblock on a townie. I don't buy that LngrrrR and his team would roleblock Stubbs and then in the following day, demand to know whether the shot was used up.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

Can we lynch this based on bullshit insider information, and result hunting?

Also, what insider information does lngrrrR have?

[LnGrrrR]

Hey Jason, why don't you explain your scum read on Amrun?

UNVOTE:
VOTE: JasonWazza

[Syryana]

Dodge.

Should be back to normal after tomorrow.

[Toomai]

Hey Jason, why don't you explain your scum read on Amrun?

Yeah if I don't see this in his next post I'll vote too.

So many lurkers.

[MSG]

My current view on players, most to least townish:

Townish

LnGrrrR
F-16_Fighting_Falcon
* based on contributions in thread

Uncertain, leaning town

fferyllt
* feeling happier with her now but still wary of scum ffery's ability to weave a web of deceit, from bitter experience
Amrun
* D1 posts looked townish, but she started out with votes on 3 town players (cdb, squilly & oriole i.e. me,) then managed to call out all 3 players who then outed as town specials, i.e. Jason, Stubbs and LnnGrrR.
Toomai
* Big effort post with the graph doesn't look like the work of scum, but who knows?
StubbsKVM
* Mostly based on the JOAT claim
Syryana
* largely based on fferylt's meta.

Uncertain, leaning scum

penguin_alien
RachMarie

Scummy

JasonWazza
* Town or scum he is playing a terrible game. Defensive, unhelpful, not asking questions, refusing to answer questions and not offering any credible explanation why.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

Penguin is playing to her scum-meta. I am going to read a few more games to verify before posting my entire case which might take a while.

VOTE: Penguin_Alien

This post comes off as not at all determined to find scum.

MSG spends a lot of time asking for other's opinions in a way that comes off as him looking for someone to sheep blame-free.

Except that it wouldn't be "blame-free." The sheep on a wagon will attract just as much scrutiny as those that provided reasoning or instigated the wagon.

He almost never gives opinions on other people's play;

Not true.
331, he says that JasonWazza is the most objectively scummy based on his evasive responses.
387, he says he doesn't like Jason's play and has his doubts about ffery and syryana.
433, he attempts to sort out the power roles, gives his opinion on each of them, and votes Stubbs.
502, he speculates that ffery not voting could be linked to the basilisk
532, he tells ffery that he wants to know why she has a townread on Syryana despite his low activity.

instead he asks them to see what they think of said people. I'd quote it from his ISO, but it's an easy read for anyone who cares to do so.

VOTE: MSG

There is no reason to believe that asking others for their reads is more likely to come from scum than town. Townies do it all the time. There is a clear town-motivation to do it: to gain a read not only on the target but on the player giving their opinion of the target when the target flips.

This reads like you trying to shoehorn scumtells and apply them to MSG. You've only looked at possible scum motivation without considering that there is an equally likely town motivation for his posts.

And this is completely different to how you play as town while matching up with the kind of manufactured scumtells you push on people as scum.

[MSG]

...
There is no reason to believe that asking others for their reads is more likely to come from scum than town. Townies do it all the time. There is a clear town-motivation to do it: to gain a read not only on the target

but on the player giving their opinion of the target

when the target flips.

...

this.

there's a reason why I keep asking questions of the 1 player whose game I am familiar with.

[JasonWazza]

@Jason, you're a horrible player and you have done nothing.

Have you figured out a reason for claiming Amrun is scum yet? Oh and I guess your theory is that Amrun and I just decided to his way other from the jump for an entire day?

What have YOU done that makes you town hm? Do you think that just yelling out random statements is helpful?

If you are town, prove it. Either give us info, or scum hunt. Because as long as you are acting like this, I am going to protect Stubbs, or even take a chance at protecting a random townie, then protect someone who is so ridiculously anti-town.

Your assertion that you won't share the info you learned toDay makes no sense. What if you are the NK toNight? Then your investigation is wasted. And considering that there are two JOAT claims, proving that at least ONE of them is town would go a long way towards helping to analyze the wagons. But hey, you haven't been helpin town all game, why start now?

Good on you, that's you being anti-town not me, you have just admited, that you won't protect a town PR.

So why is my anti-town better then you?

Also what if i am the NK? they could have wasted an NK, they don't know that unless they let me live, or kill me, i could have an important result, i could have nothing.

@Stubbs, did you lose your shot, or do you get to keep it since you were roleblocked?

Seriously guys, how is this rolefishing NOT MOTHER FUCKING SCUM?

Why is it any more likely that he would do that as scum as opposed to town? I can see the town motivation in asking for details so that he could get a better understanding of StubbsKVM's affiliation, and lock him into a claim so he can't wiggle out later if scum and can't adjust his claim for convenience as time goes by.

If scum have a roleblocker, it makes sense for scum to ask whether 1X abilities are lost upon a roleblock before they use that roleblock on a townie. I don't buy that LngrrrR and his team would roleblock Stubbs and then in the following day, demand to know whether the shot was used up.

It's more likely coming from scum, because of that thinking, it becomes WIFOM.

Why would scum not ask it? they need the info to know if they actually need to keep roleblocking.

Oh and you ignored my question .. Why didnt you mention your alignment in your claim?

I'm claiming, and i'm claiming town, why do i need to mention my alignment?

If i was a 3rd party THEN maybe i'd mention my alignment

Hey Jason, why don't you explain your scum read on Amrun?

UNVOTE:
VOTE: JasonWazza

Why don't you explain a good reason for voting me?

Hey Jason, why don't you explain your scum read on Amrun?

Yeah if I don't see this in his next post I'll vote too.

So many lurkers.

Good for you, why not persue things if people are lurking instead of just threatening a shitty vote?

Scummy

JasonWazza
* Town or scum he is playing a terrible game. Defensive, unhelpful, not asking questions, refusing to answer questions and not offering any credible explanation why.

So in other words, i'm not scummy, i'm just unhelpful, so why not make an actual case when you put me under scummy?

[Nexus]

"Yeah, he's off to the Chamber of Secrets for a cup of tea with his fanged
servant." - George Weasley

Votecount 2.1:

MSG (1)-

penguin_alien

JasonWazza (1)-

LnGrrrR

penguin_alien (1)-

F16_Fighting_Falcon

Not voting (8)-

Amrun, Syryana, fferyllt, JasonWazza, StubbsKVM, Toomai, MSG, RachMarie

With 11 alive it takes 6 to lynch. Deadline is at 7pm BST on Tuesday 24th September 2013.

Amrun and RachMarie are being prodded.

[Amrun]

Sorry, guys, life hit me like a truck.

My take is that one of them are probably lying. Look at my skepticism when Jason claimed, and how much I pressed Channel on the viability of both of them.

I am just going to claim now since half the game is lurky anyways.

I am nearly Headless Nick, a one shot Doc, and Hogwart aligned. (Curious that neither of our two claims mentioned anything about being aligned.) I can try to protect someone each night from the Basilisk: if I do so, then they get stumped. If not successful, I can keep trying. Once the basilisk dies, I become a normal 1 shot doc.

Given the wording, I have a feeling the Basilisk is an SK instead of straight scum.

Can you explain to me how this role is, in any way, a one-shot?

Ginny Weasley, a Hogwarts-aligned Townie and a Gryffindor who wants to eliminate any known threats to Hogwarts. I'm also one out of only two characters who fit the "lovers" flavor in the first post, though I'm fairly sure Harry and I aren't lovers in the mafia sense.

Like I said, I also have a huge town read on Lngrrrr for the claim. Everything about it makes sense, especially his delivery.

I don't know what to think of CDB except slight scum.

I am very confident that Jason is scum. Why?

-I don't think there are 2 town JOATs in the game.
-People seemed to be ignoring him for the past few days which isn't exactly a scum tell but I dislike that certain people are pushing the idea of him as scum to the side so easily.
-His weak powers when compared to Stubbs' claimed powers make sense when you add in access to a factional nightkill.
-Finally, 3/4 claims we have today are all Gryffindor house. Yes, the word is "Hogwarts-aligned", but being the odd one out and a second JOAT doesn't help Jason's claim much.
-p.s. Colin, Nearly Headless Nick, and Ginny all encountered and were (near) victims of the Basilisk. Not Filch. It makes sense that Filch is working against Harry Potter in the 2nd book, despite his overall actions toward the end of the series.

1 and a half hours left today. I'm getting lynched. Sorry that my activity kind of sucked, but please follow up on this

I just want to point out that actually, Filch was probably saved from being a victim by Mrs. Norris and was very close to the basilisk.

@Marquis, thanks for that. And sorry for tunnelling you so much if you are town.

I thought tunneling was scummy? Hate this post. Pre-apologizing for town flip.

Upon thinking more, I actually think Stubb's claim makes sense. If we are to assume that roles are at least somewhat similar to this game, http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 3#p5126063, the scum are given pretty good characters for safe-claims and they can choose whatever role they want a role PM crafted for.

I think Colin Creevey is a rather unlikely character to be provided as a safe-claim.

Even in the event that it was, it is unlikely that Stubbs would ask for a JOAT claim (I guess he might if he didn't know who Colin Creevey was but I am sure his scum-mates would help him out with that as occurred in the linked game). Stubbs leans town to me. Read through of Stubs's meta briefly shows that his behavior isn't very unusual as town.

UNVOTE:

Marquis's latest posts sound very genuine so I think he is town as well. If we can get an alternative lynch, we should. Depends on how many people are online and don't like the Marquis's lynch. I think Toomai or PenguinAlien are both appealing ones. Thoughts?

This post and most other f16 posts are EXTREMELY town. I do want to disagree; if anything, Colin seems like the likeliest of all fakeclaim characters.

I was roleblocked last night :/

And he claimed an RB himself. NO.

Here is what I don't get... If Stubbs was roleblocked, why weren't Jason or I killed? Scum trying to introduce WIFOM and have town mislynch? Just throws me off.

This post makes me feel a bit better about LnGrr, but wouldn't you have prevented a kill on Jason if you were protecting him?

Sure, I can get behind this.

VOTE: Toomai

Please do something.

If you are town, as I am beginning to suspect, please care less about who is doing things and care more about who is scum.

124 is terrible where he asks ffery what the point is of having a look for passive voice in lngrrrR's town game. I think it is fairly obvious: if LngrrrR generally uses passive voice as town, then it becomes a null tell. LngrrrR was also the hot topic for discussion at the time, so checking up his meta is hardly a distraction.

The whole "passive voice" argument seemed like pointless, pedantic garbage to me and went on way too long.

The amount of null reads he has in 181 is troubling coupled with no attempt at developing any reads. 183 is just hoping someone else makes things happen. I really don't like 186 - pre-emptively justifying why he is dead weight in this game by referring to his other games. If he was dead weight before, makes no sense to not try and improve.

You think I'm not trying to get reads or improve at playing? I sit here for probably half an hour per post trying to come up with questions and reads, and come up with pointless headaches instead. I am a bad player and will probably stay that way for several years whether I try to improve or not. That does not mean I am scum; that means I am a policy lynch.

271 where he says Jason has been more helpful doesn't sit right either. Jason had not done anything up until that point other than promise reads.

That was my point. I felt Marquis had done less than promise reads.

Please do something.

I'll do a votecount analysis or something. At least I'm capable of that.

For some reason, this post, especially the end, strikes me as townish.

Penguin is playing to her scum-meta. I am going to read a few more games to verify before posting my entire case which might take a while.

VOTE: Penguin_Alien

This post comes off as not at all determined to find scum.

MSG spends a lot of time asking for other's opinions in a way that comes off as him looking for someone to sheep blame-free.

Except that it wouldn't be "blame-free." The sheep on a wagon will attract just as much scrutiny as those that provided reasoning or instigated the wagon.

He almost never gives opinions on other people's play;

Not true.
331, he says that JasonWazza is the most objectively scummy based on his evasive responses.
387, he says he doesn't like Jason's play and has his doubts about ffery and syryana.
433, he attempts to sort out the power roles, gives his opinion on each of them, and votes Stubbs.
502, he speculates that ffery not voting could be linked to the basilisk
532, he tells ffery that he wants to know why she has a townread on Syryana despite his low activity.

instead he asks them to see what they think of said people. I'd quote it from his ISO, but it's an easy read for anyone who cares to do so.

VOTE: MSG

There is no reason to believe that asking others for their reads is more likely to come from scum than town. Townies do it all the time. There is a clear town-motivation to do it: to gain a read not only on the target but on the player giving their opinion of the target when the target flips.

This reads like you trying to shoehorn scumtells and apply them to MSG. You've only looked at possible scum motivation without considering that there is an equally likely town motivation for his posts.

And this is completely different to how you play as town while matching up with the kind of manufactured scumtells you push on people as scum.

What is your experience with PA?


Today, I'm feeling ffery, Sryryana, f16, rach as most town (not in order).

Stubbs' claim sticks out like a sore thumb, and CDB dying over either of them supports the idea that one of the claimed JOATs is scum.

Not only is Colin more likely to be a fakeclaim, imo, the SHOTS themselves are not nuanced at all, unlike Jason's claim. Especially if we believe LnGrr's claim (and I think I do), I think we are looking at more nuanced roles here.

VOTE: Stubbs

Not liking PA either.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

@ Amrun, I haven't actually played with PA but I was just reading through her games the past couple of days.

I am going to think more on Stubbs as well.

[LnGrrrR]

@Amrun,

Good post. In answer to your questions:

As I explained above, as long as the Basilisk is alive I can continue to try and protect until I am succesful. Once the Basilisk is dead, I become a normal one shot.

Re: tunnelling, it's not inherently scummy or towny, but I do think it is bad play. I tunneled Marquis a bit Day 1, which is what I apologized for.

Re: NK WIFOM, what I meant was that why weren't Jason or I the targets of the nightkill? I just don't see why they hit Channel instead. It throws some suspicion on us, but at the cost of keeping power roles alive.

Re: worrying about scum, there's a lot of lurkers this game; getting them to post, and commit to positions, will help me scumhunt.
@Jason,

You say my vote is useless, but it got you to start posting at least. And I wasn't just voting because you are lurky; not explaining your scum read on Amrun after repeated attempts to get you to answer is scummy. You dodged it again above.

And I said I wouldn't bother protecting you if you didn't interact, scumhunt, or help the town in some way. I don't think that's too much to ask.

I find it interesting that you have been claiming Im scum for awhile, and now have switched your stance over to "anti-town". Also, the fact that you believe I am a doc ties in to that. If so, who are your current scum reads?

@Syryana, does Ffery look scummy to you?

@Ffery, does Syryana look scummy to you?

[LnGrrrR]

@Amrun, do you think having a RB shot for town, and a mafia Roleblocker, is unlikely?

[fferyllt]

@Ffery, does Syryana look scummy to you?

I have a town read based on his day 1 posts. The read's grown a little stale.

Amrun has some points about Stubbs. I'm going to do some review/meta-dive.