Open 521: Jungle Republic (Alright. We'll call it a draw)

[Lord Mhork]

Vote Count 2.11

BOOMSHAKALAKA (0)
Alduskkel (0)
TheIrishPope (0)
elleheathen (0)
theaceofspades (1) TheIrishPope
1baldeagle1 (3) BOOMSHAKALAKA, Yggdra Union, theaceofspades
TrumpetKing (0)
KrazyEyeKilla7 (0)
Yggdra Union (2) 1baldeagle, KrazyEyeKilla7
Om of the Nom (0)

Not Voting:

TrumpetKing, Om of the Nom, elleheathen, Alduskkel

With 10 alive, it takes 6 to lynch.


V/LA-
1baldeagle1 until 9/17

Night falls in (expired on 2013-09-22 18:40:00)

[Yggdra Union]

Yggdra, on the other hand, I'm not sure of either. Not only do I not like their pointing out of their own 'townslips' as I stated before

The sad thing is though, I don't see the "townslip" myself, because he never told me.

Am I the only one seeing how Yggdra seems to have changed their posting style since the supposed "scumslips"?
They seemed to be more secretive before, but now they feel more... open?

I'm not sure if I like this, because I feel that's what I'd do too if I were scum.

Om it's like you don't know who I am and who sister is.

I feel sad

If its not a "slip" then what would it be

Why do you think...

I'm separating Wolves from Mafia?

Then which is "scum" if they're so separated?

If you say "scum is wolf" then you draw attention to yourself as mafia. And vice verse.

I don't think you're town...I'll read your psycho wall of text but you don't have me convinced

Mafia is Mafia
Where is Where
Scum is Scum
Wolf is Wolf

And like

Saying you don't think we're town helps.

I don't know. Aegina never told me.

-L

I'd never tell you

Those aren't really GOOD reasons to think that baldeagle is a wolf.

I'd take this one.
Right After touhou, and circle clicking.

i love the non case on me. because you were pushing it long before my scummy act of "wanting two people lynched." imo, you're each scum. one on each team...that's my guess. because the fight makes the most sense from that perspective.


also WIFOM isn't always on purpose. sometimes it's just an accusation that has no concrete facts, sufficient for a proof

I'd get to you after baldeagle

Wow, tne and GiF. cool beans.

COVER BLOWN!!! ABORT! ABORT!

-Aegina

[Om of the Nom]

I know who you both are but that was still kind of a valid worry but then I realised you were town so it's ok now :)

[Yggdra Union]

Way ahead of you, tippy
But I want baldeagle dead first.

@elle: I remember you saying that you don't see baldeagle scum. Why?
To be honest, at first I thought of him as a lynchbait, but then I realized that fmpov about 56% of the playerlist excluding me are scum, and with some townreads I have, he might as well be scum.

-L

[TheIrishPope]

GIF who do you think is more likely to escape lylo with a scum win, ace or eagle?
exactly

[Yggdra Union]

Neither. One is eating rope today, and another is eating rope tomorrow.
-L

[TheIrishPope]

Then one claims and we're fucked

[Yggdra Union]

Don't get what you're talking about here.
-L

[TheIrishPope]

If scum claims Seer, the real Seer is forced to claim, and then it's just mountainous

[Yggdra Union]

He means that we rope the lesser.

Since we can assure the death of baldeagle.

-Aegina

[TheIrishPope]

umm no actually the other way around
we lynch the strongest first

[Alduskkel]

Guys, I've just thought of a claiming strategy but I don't know if it actually works.

WHAT IF... someone claims Seer, and if it's a fakeclaim, the real Seer waits one Day to counterclaim? That way, if the fake claimer is Mafia, we force the Werewolves to kill the fake claimer FOR US. Because they cannot take the risk of not immediately killing a claimed Seer.*

...although, then every scum gets to claim Seer until the actual Seer dies. Which means that the worst (best? in that we are running up Mafia so that they have to claim 100% of the time...) case scenario would be that all 3 Mafia get to claim Seer to allow them to survive one lynch. But, I suppose then that means that we would be directing 3 Werewolf kills.

Of course, if we can't afford the Day (i.e. we HAVE to lynch scum), then we can't use this strategy. Fortunately, the odds of scum claiming Seer in the first place substantially decrease in these lylo situations because there often comes a time when it becomes optimal strategy for scum to claim either Mafia or Werewolf -- whichever side the Town cannot lynch. (For example, in a 3 Town 1 Mafia 1 Werewolf situation, Town cannot lynch the Mafia member without losing to the Werewolf. Therefore, both scum will likely claim Mafia if run up to a lynch, even if the Seer is still alive.)

Obviously, this strategy is mainly effective against Mafia claiming Seer, because we still have to lynch a Werewolf who claims Seer. However, this could mean we are turning the Werewolf nightkill into a pseudo-lynch.

---

What I haven't figured out:
1. What if there are two Seer claims in one Day, without either strictly being a counterclaim? (Since we've agreed in this case that the Seer should wait one Day. I define a counterclaim as a claim strictly made to show that the other claim is false.)
2. Are Werewolves ACTUALLY forced to kill claimed Seers?

The problem with #1 is that it is sometimes suboptimal to lynch a certain type of scum -- for example, what if both Werewolves claimed Seer today, but no Mafia are nightkilled or lynched that Day/Night cycle? If we choose to lynch both Werewolves consecutively then I believe we have to rely on them killing a Mafioso -- except then we get into a weird situation where the last Werewolf will threaten to avoid killing Mafia if we don't let the Werewolf live. And the biggest problem is that, due to the inherent lack of knowledge in any given situation, to discern what optimal play is requires accounting for all the other possibilities because the players have to do that too.

The problem with #2 is that if we come to the conclusion that optimal strategy is for Mafia to claim Seer, then the Werewolves know that any Seer claim has only a 25% chance of actually being the Seer. But then, they might kill the claimed Seer anyway if it's optimal for them to try to kill Mafia. But, if it's optimal for them to try to kill Mafia, are there then situations where they actually want to avoid killing the real Seer?

[Alduskkel]

There's going to be some people who skip that wall of text, and while I don't approve of skipping content in a game, I admit that some people won't care to read a bunch of inconclusive theorycrafting. So I'll separate this post from the previous one.

Aldus, care to explain the rational behind Yggdra's question? i dont understand.

The idea is to ask a person who they would want on their scumteam. That wording is the most optimal, because you don't specify how many names (when YU asked what PARTNERS someone would want this was very poor execution) you're asking for. If they respond with 1 name, they might be a Werewolf. If they respond with 2, they might be a Mafioso. The irony is that GIF/Luciana was a Seer in Open 493 and both parts of the hydra responded with 1 name, implicating them as a Werewolf. Meaning the question is not as sound as it might seem. Side note, Klick was the one trying to use it in Open 493.

Anyway, I'm

really

tired of talking about scumslips and townslips. I don't think it shows YU to be scum, and it definitely doesn't show them to be town. (Especially since one part of the hydra doesn't know what the townslip was, while the other part won't say.)

I'm just going to iso baldeagle and theaceofspades and see what I can conclude about them.

[Alduskkel]

By the way, it's really early in the morning so if my theorycrafting up there makes no goddamn sense or has an obvious flaw... well, you know why. Alternatively, I'm a total genius who has just set the new meta for all Jungle Republic games in the future.

[Yggdra Union]

@tippy: oh.
@aldus: if ww fakeclaim seer, well, he won't die at night, which would look really bad.

-L

[Alduskkel]

If a Werewolf fakeclaims Seer, he gets counterclaimed the next Day and we lynch him. How is this different from what occurs normally, aside from it being delayed 1 Day/Night cycle?

[Alduskkel]

By the way, I know I was just bemoaning how much we've been talking about scumslips and townslips, but I swear to god we better not start obsessing over the above theorycrafting, because if that's all we're doing then we're DEFINITELY not scumhunting. Better to make an MD thread after the game is over.

[Yggdra Union]

I thought you said it benefits if only mafia claim seer.

Also there's a instance where wolf would want to go for mafia over seer, and that's tonight if we either mislynch and lynch town, or his partner gets lynched.

-L

P-Edit: I don't know about you but while I was talking about slips I established 3 firm townreads and 2 firm scumreads.
/progress

[Yggdra Union]

Also note that ace is calling me scum for something that I haven't done.
-L

[Alduskkel]

I find it difficult to townread anyone when I know scum can scumhunt almost as well as town in multiball. I'm surprised you consider your TIP townread "firm."

If we don't lynch Mafia today, and someone's claimed Seer, and we're following my strategy, then won't the Wolf/Wolves kill the claimed Seer even if they want to kill Mafia, because there's a 75% chance of the claimed Seer being Mafia? This doubles the chance of a Wolf killing Mafia, although I admit that that only holds true if we assume any given Mafioso will always claim Seer.

[Yggdra Union]

I'm not townreading ppl for their scumhunting.
I'm townreading ppl for HOW they do it and for the motives for their post.

Well, in tippy case, it's gut+meta. I played with him for quite some times, and this is town tippy.

-L

[TheIrishPope]

Damn straight.

[Alduskkel]

I thought this wasn't your town meta.

[TheIrishPope]

It really isn't but thanks for ruining my plan bro

[Alduskkel]

And what was your plan?