Mini 1492: Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets GAME OVER

[fferyllt]

Nacho, you've inherited stale town read of Syr from day 1.

Thoughts about the game?

[MSG]

Hey fferylt. How come you didn't get a vote down for the second day in a row?

[fferyllt]

I didn't want to hammer Stubbs before Syr posted some actual content. I didn't realize he was replacing out.

[MSG]

what difference would / could Syr's input have made?

[fferyllt]

what difference would / could Syr's input have made?

To the lynch? Most likely none. But, getting his reactions and thoughts about day 2 would have been good for refining reads on him and on others. He wasn't likely to be a night 2 kill given the game state, but I've seen some pretty odd night kills on occasion.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

I am thinking about who the scum could be but I have too many townreads.

ffery, who do you think are the scum?

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

Here are my updated reads:

Strong Town

1) Amrun

- Amrun was obvious as town from Day 1 onward. Her early suspicion of LngrrrR and death-tunneling was very town-like. It is the sort of thing that would be very difficult to fake as scum. Her actions in D2 continue to give me good vibes including the push on Stubbs and pointing out how he was doubly-cc'd. This is one read I am sure is 100% town.

2) Toomai

- Toomai is playing very similarly to how he generally plays as town. His reference to numbers and the implications of his "extremely slightly" reads which he counted based on percentage points matches his scumhunting style as town perfectly. While he doesn't have any scum games to compare, I don't believe that as scum, he would withhold on his graphs and charts despite people saying that he wasn't contributing. He had a ton of behind-the-scenes work that he only posted after I prodded him. I am close to 100% certain that he is town.

3) JasonWazza

– Jason’s behavior is difficult to read and his town and scum games are very similar. I don’t understand his suspicion of Amrun from Day 1 and his claim of LngrrR having “bullshit insider information.” But, I don’t think that he as scum counterclaimed one of his partners. Without any other claimed power roles, I find one doc, one investigative JOAT, and one useless role to be a reasonable expectation of town power. I’ll re-evaluate if anyone else claims a power role but so far I see no reason to suspect the claim. I am not 100% on this but we'll know soon enough if Jason is scum.

4) RachMarie

– Rach is playing very closely to her town-meta where she is often direct in accusing players where as scum, she is usually a lot more peripheral and gives the sense of an outsider looking in. A few examples where this is seen is in Open 469 where she spends most of her time pushing a lynch wagon while demanding more content. There is also a lot of setup speculation as in this game which matches her town meta. As scum however, in games like Newbie 1318, she asks a lot of clarification questions, and tells people to expand on their cases while taking the backseat. This isn’t present in any of her town games. Her tone also sounds more stilted where she puts Apozzle in the town category for making a good case. It is interesting to see that she doesn’t actually react to the case. Open 489 is another example where she as scum doesn't directly involve herself in conflicts but stays on the sidelines and isn't very insistent of having her views heard.

A lot of her posts seem very natural like 210 for instance where she talks to Syryana. Her insistence that one of the claimed PR's are scum is also more likely to come from town than scum since one of them (Stubbs) was indeed scum. I think scum would be happy to forget about Stubbs when other people started reading him as town. While she does ask a few clarification questions, her demands for Marquis to provide reads on the other players also makes sense as what she would do as town. Her 362 where she insists that one of the JOATs are scum also makes little sense as scum since she is cutting down the potential for Stubbs to walk free.

Weak Town

4) fferyllt

- I like the fact that she reviewed LngrrR's meta to figure out whether the passive voice is indicative of his normal playstyle. I also think the case on Penguin came from a town motivation and I agree with it. I don't think she has been pro-active enough to be obvtown although a lot of her behavior mirrors that in Newbie 1415 where she was helpful but not particularly aggressive during the later stages. Re-reading a lot of her earlier posts, they show genuine town-motivation including the reach-out to Syryana and discussion of her results of meta-diving Stubbs. However, a lot of her behavior is also similar to Mini 1478 where she was scum and read people that she knew as town fairly easily – for instance saying “borktown” after a post from borkjerfkin in a similar way that she said “Rachtown” here after seeing a post from Rach. Not to mention that she and Cabd spent a considerable amount of time discussing Andrius’s games offsite with Empire. Her actions so far in the thread have been pro-town with no reason for suspicion. However, the fact that she could draw scum and play pretty much the exact same way makes me not confident in this read but rather tentatively put her as town and see what happens from there.

Ffery, another thing that bugs me is that you are not taking hard stances despite your meta-analysis which was exactly what Oil Tycoons brought up in Mini 1478. I hadn’t read that post when I had that initial scumread on you for not taking stances but upon reading it, I figured that it was surprisingly accurate. If you are town, help me read you better and give me more of your thoughts on who the scum is.

Null

5) Nachomamma8

– I lean slight town on Syryana but I want to see what Nacho comes up with.

7) MSG

- Most of MSG's posts have struck me as very genuinely paranoid. There isn't a lot of detailed analysis but his questioning of other players to see who they think is scum seems to come from a genuine town motivation. I am not sure how much of this is a playstyle issue and how much is affiliation dependent. MSG, can you provide links to town and scum games that you have played (at least 3 of each would be nice).

Scum

8) Penguin_Alien

– She hasn’t done any scumhunting or attempted to figure out anyone’s affiliation. Most of her comments came off as very convenient and non-committal. An example is her claim that LngrrrR’s reaction to his wagon was bad. There was no follow up or attempt at determining his motivations.

I also don’t believe ffery’s point about low hanging fruit was addressed properly. While I agree that this is a good playerlist, I certainly feel that MSG or Squilly would be a easier lynches than say ChannelDelibird, or Amrun. I would have been fine if she said that she simply suspected MSG but I don’t buy the response implying that there is no such thing as “high hanging fruit” in this playerlist.

She has been backing up some of her reads logically, for instance saying that Amrun is town because she elaborated on the reasons for the mafia nightkill and scum wouldn’t want to slip up. I don't think scum are any less likely to talk about NK motivations and I see it as a rather weak reason to townread someone who has been obvtown from Day 1. I can see some of Penguin’s play as logical, rational, and consistent but nowhere do I get the feeling that it is genuine, honest, or transparent.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

VOTE: Penguin_Alien

[MSG]

Based on Stubbs' flip I am fairly confident that JW has told the truth about his role.

I did an extensive re-read of day 1 & 2 over the past couple of days (not much work on this week) and most of the players were town reads for me.

Town

Amrun
F-16_Fighting_Falcon
RachMarie
Toomai
JasonWazza

Neutral

penguin_alien

Scum

Nachomamma8
fferylt

VOTE: fferylt

The fferylt vote is based on a combination of in-thread play (e.g. avoiding voting) and game meta. She doesn't seem to be having fun, which is the difference between her town and scum games. I got the same feeling reading another game where she was scum (newbie 1403,) compared to games where she played as town (e.g. newbie 1415, Newbie 1389.)

Nachomamma8 is based on reading Syryana's interactions with fferylt and the way he was protecting StubbsKVM on d1. Start from post 193, where he was white-knighting fferylt (strongly) and StubbsKVM (weakly.) As the net starts to close on Stubbs Syr and ffery put votes down on Stubbs (post 207, post 208,) but after Stubbs claims (post 257) Syryana vigorously opposes any effort to restart the d1 bandwagon (post 376, post 437, post 443.)

I had LnGrrrR as probable town but the flip has resolved that one.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

MSG is another townread.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

I agree with your analysis on ffery/Nacho and it is making me doubt my Penguin read as well the more I think about her posts. The problem I have is that I can't really see anyone being scum with Penguin and her apathy in this game and lack of scumhunting could be less alignment indicative because she had no trouble mislynching one townie after another in her scum games (BROseidon and TMTOLBTWNTOF in HP and the Philosopher's Stone and SiviureDtTrikyp in Micro 122) so I am not sure why she isn't just pushing mislynches on players. ffery and Nacho however does make sense especially with ffery saying that Syr fits her town model in a similar way that she claimed that Andrius fits her town model in the mafia Xenologue game.

Penguin, if you are town, please produce a lot more content so we can read you better.

[MSG]

when I did a readback, most of the posts drawing attention to penguin_alien were made by fferylt - the low-hanging fruit stuff. but to me it looked more like it was fferylt trying to frame up the low-hanging fruit town player.

I was having the same though about p_a not looking like scum because she had no apparent team mates. Also I could see how she would read my posts as scum asking lots of questions to try to look busy, if she was a lonely townie with no information.

I am probably death-tunnelling now so will probably back off for a while

[MSG]

EBWOP "same

thought

about p_a not looking like scum"

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

MSG, can you provide me links to your town and scum games?

[MSG]

this is my first ever game on mafiascum. I have played mafia on other boards with fferylt, and co-gm'd games with her

[fferyllt]

Why would I not vote as scum? MSG?

[MSG]

I just read your post 656 (didn't see it when I posted 658.) your analysis of me is very similar to p_a's case against me on d2

[MSG]

Why would I not vote as scum? MSG?

could be a number of reasons, including game mechanics. what's your point, other than to create WIFOM?

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

I just read your post 656 (didn't see it when I posted 658.) your analysis of me is very similar to p_a's case against me on d2

What is similar about it?

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

Okay. Never mind about the games offsite. I reread your ISO and your latest post and it makes perfect sense as town.

MSG

moves into the strong town pile. The suspicion on fferyllt builds up very naturally right from 329 where he asks questions about fferyllt and follows that up with his own suspicions. 331 again makes sense far more sense as town than scum - I figure scum would more likely want to buddy/fly below the radar of people who they know with the hope they won't be suspected. The biggest thing for me is that despite ffery's defense of him, he doesn't seem to let go of the suspicion. It would make much more sense as scum to push Penguin since it is convenient (she is pushing him), and other people are suspicious of her. But his non-jump on the Penguin wagon because ffery is pushing it looks like town that has suspicions of the people defending them but don't want to say it yet. With his final articulation of his suspicion despite me putting ffery as weak town in my reads list and Penguin (who was attacking MSG) as scum, this is another strong town read.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

Updated List of Reads

Strong Town

1) Amrun
2) Toomai
3) Jason
4) Rach
5) MSG

Everybody Else

6) Nacho
7) ffery
8) Penguin

[fferyllt]

Based on Stubbs' flip I am fairly confident that JW has told the truth about his role.

I did an extensive re-read of day 1 & 2 over the past couple of days (not much work on this week) and most of the players were town reads for me.

Town

Amrun
F-16_Fighting_Falcon
RachMarie
Toomai
JasonWazza

Neutral

penguin_alien

Scum

Nachomamma8
fferylt

VOTE: fferylt

The fferylt vote is based on a combination of in-thread play (e.g. avoiding voting) and game meta. She doesn't seem to be having fun, which is the difference between her town and scum games. I got the same feeling reading another game where she was scum (newbie 1403,) compared to games where she played as town (e.g. newbie 1415, Newbie 1389.)

"Not having fun" is not really alignment-dependent for me. This game is nowhere near "not fun", and I'm not really sure where you get that impression. Fun is mostly about the player list and the game interactions. Newbie 1389 and Raptured were two of the most unenjoyable games I've ever played. And my most recent completed scum game Micro 217 was a blast.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

ffery, what are your reads? Who do you think is scum? Work with me. Right now the only people I am still not sure of are you, Nacho, and Penguin. Everybody else is a strong townread.

[fferyllt]

Why would I not vote as scum? MSG?

could be a number of reasons, including game mechanics. what's your point, other than to create WIFOM?

Aside from apparently not having enough fun, not having a vote down at the end of the game day is your CASE. I can't even count how many times at MS I have declared intent to hammer and someone hammered before me.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

Why are you ignoring my posts? You still haven't provided any of your reads. More than MSG's case on you, I think MSG's progression of suspicion which can be glanced at from his ISO makes him really obvious town. POE means that two of you, Nacho, and Penguin are scum.

UNVOTE:

I am not as sure of Penguin anymore. I want to hear from her and Nacho and think about this further.