Mini 1492: Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets GAME OVER

[JasonWazza]

Yes i did, and it's virtually useless at this point now, and i'm sad.

[MSG]

who was it?

[JasonWazza]

P_A went nowhere last night.

Result from night before: CDB stayed at home.

[MSG]

ok, so your n2 read is not useless

[MSG]

Well my reads update is that JW and FFF are town due to claims and everyone else is in a big pile of cluelessness.

I guess I'll wait for Nachomamma8 to get caught up.

really?

[JasonWazza]

Yeah it is, Stubbs was "roleblocked" so that isn't in play anymore.

So it's possible in a Vanilla Mafia, that P_A is just a goon.

[MSG]

yabbut (assuming you're telling the truth, which I am) it means p_a is not the basilisk. or at least did not commit the nk. which means it is less likely she is on the scum team

[RachMarie]

bah Stubbs was most likely lying about the roleblock, Jason he was scum after all...

[fferyllt]

Meh, I'm trying to puzzle out the actions you used, Jason, but it's probably best to leave that up in the air.

[Nexus]

What that means though is:

1. Falcon is for sure town because iffen he is giving out fruit he is probably not killing our dear doc...

2. Falcon could still be scum, but was not doing the kill... I am going on the basis that we have a three person scum team and no SK. (singular night kills kinda give credence to not having a SK).

So it is more likely he is town, but not totally confirmed yet. In Author Mafia we DID have a mafia fruit vendor. We found him out because he was not able to give fruit AND do the night kill as well.

@ mod if a mafia PR ends up being the only one left, can he do both his or her PR as well as doing the killing?

Depends on the individual game. I can't comment.

[JasonWazza]

bah Stubbs was most likely lying about the roleblock, Jason he was scum after all...

I just said that.

Meh, I'm trying to puzzle out the actions you used, Jason, but it's probably best to leave that up in the air.

Leave it in the air, but it is kinda obvious which 2 i used.

[Nachomamma8]

Well, yes, depending on context, but I don't care about that.

VOTE: lngrr

Tonally, the passive voice is very strange there, and strange how he went out of the way to say that without remarking on squilly's alignment.

This interaction with LNGGEGRRRR reads town. Amrun has this tendency to go from interrogation to interrogation as town to a level that doesn't mesh with her scum gameplan of sticking below the surface.

Firstly, it's sloppy because it doesn't make any sense whatsoever. They may have been voting each other a lot, but what else can you say? If you think it's because they are a trio, you're either an insanely paranoid Townie or scum looking for as many people as possible to incriminate. You're trying to use that as a scum-tell when none of them have even flipped scum yet.

Secondly, I don't like the self-meta. You're trying to use your behaviour in the past as a "Get out of Jail Free" card, and self-meta is scummy in its own right.

Thirdly, I have a feeling from your interactions with Amrun that one of you is probably scum. And I'm feeling you more.

And ditto on this response to LNGRGEERRRR by Fegelein.

Jason, start playing the game.

And here my townread on Amrun is reaffirmed already.

I regret having you as an early scum-read now.

Also like this post; it's the type of thing that would be awkward for scum to say (oh i'm sad i pushed you as scum because you look really town now) but is a pretty natural thing to say as town.

Welcome to the Town-reads, don't do anything to make me doubt you.

Also looks town for the same reasons.

Liking Amrun, Channel and Fegelin for town.

These are the same people I would be townreading and that makes me happy.

I see where people say Squilly was scum-hunting, but it still seems like the kind of fake scum hunting scum like to do.

This is an awkward comment and seems to be framed more towards throwing doubt on the townread as opposed to actually determining alignment. As town, I don't think she'd be afraid to say "I don't think he's scumhunting".

ChannelDelibird - Town
Amrun - Town
Fegelein - Town

Unfortunately, this doesn't have the same effect when other people have already beat you to it.

I really want to post but I have nothing to contribute. I have weak, aggregate reads on four players and doubt the correctness of all of them.

I appreciate the honesty!

Not anymore. I was feeling kinda heebie jeebie about how easily Amrun and CDB started working with each other after that early "Amrun is scum" crap in RVS, but that last post by CDB gave me a raging hardon, so I'm not as concerned about him anymore.

How quickly do they usually sort each other? (I used to sort Nacho on the basis of 3-4 early day 1 posts. Then he had to go and eliminate his tells. :/)

I love when I replace into a game and people talk about how awesome I am.

Pedit: Oh, is that what you meant by timing? Makes a hell of a lot more sense.

Pedit2: You know you want to vote Stubbs nao, fery.

Yep. Checking vote count. And it's 3

Vote: Stubbs

This vote is not so likely from ffery-scum at all. I can see her sheeping Syryana onto her scumpartner, yes. But usually bussing is a bit of a big deal for her (since she has the tendency to set her scumpartners up for endgame scenarios instead of endgaming others herself), so the fact that she so immediately sheeped Syryana sheeping CDB's case is a good town tell for me.

Will take a look at CDB's links for his case. Still think Jason is scum, and it is not just his activity level, it is what he posted when he did post. Definitely not getting good vibrations here, unlike the Beach Boys song.

Fery has cut down on the amount she has posted but what she has posted definitely feels like town fery not scum fery.

feeling good about Amrun and CDB too.

yeah that whole Rach is scum, oh wait she posted a list, Rach is town bothers me too....

Rach is reading town for this post. It's light, it's easy. I also feel she's more likely to complain about people reading her as scum as town than she is when she's caught scum.

I like the case on Stubbs, I'll think about it more while

I'm on V/LA for today

.

I didn't really like this.

Now that that's over, I can say for sure that yeah Stubbs is pretty scummy. The case in 200 currently has me convinced; 157 in particular stands out to me as awful. But I won't be voting him until he can reply to all this.

This is sort of weak. I figured if you were gonna think the case over then you would have more stuff, but maybe I'm wrong on that.

Tempted to put Stubbs at L-1. Much as I thought Squilly was scummy, and Marquis is pinging oddly, that Stubbs and LnGrrrR are on the wagon makes me uneasy. Whereas I like nearly all of the Stubbs wagon participants. Will see what Stubbs has to say when he gets back in here.

Don't like this either; talking about two other scumvibes yet not following up on any of them to any extent whatsoever was awkward and scummy.

Stubbs, what's your rationale for voting Squilly-slot over JasonWazza?

Pressure votes don't seem to work on Jason.

But if he's a scum read, he's a scum read and thus worth voting. And pressure votes without follow-up pressure aren't super-useful.

VOTE: Stubbs

L-1

Question-answer-vote transition is weak as shit.

rachtown.

Why did you read Rach town here? Marquis question?

I don't think I've played with town-Jason, but his pointed comments and veneer of...being infalliable? are reminiscent of his scum play from the large Mainstream game where he snowed us town. I don't have town reads on Marquis or LnGrrrR, but I don't trust Jason at all right now.

UNVOTE: Stubbs
VOTE: JasonWazza

Had Marquis and LnEEETGGGGRRRRAAAGH scumreads earlier, but ends up settling on the strongest player out of the punch for paranoia reasons?

Two JOAT claims. Could be town-town, town-scum, or scum-scum. Considering how much sense either of them makes is kind of the point. Jason not addressing the other JOAT claim is sketchy, and I'd rather not speculate further until he does, as it seems like we have more time now.

Didn't mind this initially, but continuing reading brings us to:

I was really looking forward to playing this game, I read the Harry Potter books more than twice. I'll post in more detail once I catch up but upon a skim, the first thing I noticed was that Stubbs claimed Colin Creevey giving justification as "protecting Harry from accusations." This isn't true. Colin follows Harry around with a camera and takes pictures despite the fact that Harry doesn't want it. He is annoying more than protective. He even gossips about Harry being the heir of slytherin (I need to double check the last point). Whatever he does, there is no "protection" no matter how much I stretch it. I think the claim is fake.

There's no way in hell a replacement comes in and attempts to renew interest in his scumbuddy when there are so many options and free town lynches available to him.

2 JOATs though seems rather odd? I have never played in a game with 2 JOATS before have you CDB?

Rach attacking what could be a free out given to her by CDB is also pretty town, considering the whole "not bussing" meta.

The role PMs in Nexus's philosopher's stone game were a bit unusual. http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 3#p5126063

The wierdest one was peeves as the the vanilla cop because despite him causing chaos, hogwarts is his home and he wants to protect it. The protection part is not true but peeves makes sense as vanilla cop because he is always snooping around. I am a little undecided on the Colin Creevey claim but between Creevey and Filch, I find it much more likely Filch is the JOAT considering he helps out a lot with miscellaneous stuff. I'll think on it though.

I dig this followup.

Also leaning town on Amrun.

What made your Amrun read stale here?

Toomai responding with the graph within 18 minutes is pretty strong evidence of him being town, I think.

I liked #549. I could see the makings of a move against penguin in her previous posts, so it's good to see the culmination of that.

#570 by Amrun is reassuring.

@Syryana, does Ffery look scummy to you?

For what it's worth, Syryana told me that he was reading ffery as town but I might be called to defend her honor. His townread on her didn't go stale at all.

No, seriously, who's the high hanging fruit you think I should be scum reading?

The low hanging fruit I was concerned about was pretty much Squilly/Marquis. The rest is just too much fencesitting; you seemed to have come around to a stubbs scumread, but it didn't seem like you were moving to lynch him.

he would withhold on his graphs and charts despite people saying that he wasn't contributing. He had a ton of behind-the-scenes work that he only posted after I prodded him. I am close to 100% certain that he is town.

I'm not as confident, but the graph didn't sell me last time I played with him and I still feel pretty good about him, just want to see something more.

As the net starts to close on Stubbs Syr and ffery put votes down on Stubbs (post 207, post 208,) but after Stubbs claims (post 257) Syryana vigorously opposes any effort to restart the d1 bandwagon (post 376, post 437, post 443.)

It seems an odd move as a scumteam to have a voting block bussing method of your scumbuddy. Syryana did defend Stubbs day 1 based on the strong JOAT claim, which was not something that should have been touched day 1. Leaving night to give us a hint of their identities was just a good move.

was white-knighting fferylt (strongly)

That's what usually happens when Syr or I or Cabd gets a strong townread on ffery; sometimes her slow moving style is interpreted as scummy in the MS meta, townffery is gold, so protect her we must.

The biggest thing for me is that despite ffery's defense of him, he doesn't seem to let go of the suspicion.

Ffery has a tendency to townread people who attack her.

[fferyllt]

Why did you read Rach town here? Marquis question?

Yeah, post 264, a set of rapid-fire questions, not "what are your reads", plus the slight irritability of the last question.

What made your Amrun read stale here?

She had been absent for a while.

Ffery has a tendency to townread people who attack her.

It's not so straightforward as that. It depends on whether (and why) I expect to be townread vs not.

[fferyllt]

Nacho, you didn't have much to say about MSG.

Who are you scumreading?

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

Nacho, a few questions:

1) Why is your townread on Amrun re-affirmed when when she tells Jason to start playing the game?
2) What games have you played with Rach as town and scum? (I want to see in what way she is more likely to complain about being scumread as town).

[Nachomamma8]

Why is your townread on Amrun re-affirmed when when she tells Jason to start playing the game?

Similar interactions with Jason in a recently completed game, Achievement Unlocked Mafia. She got aggravated by him being quiet and attacked him early on.

2) What games have you played with Rach as town and scum? (I want to see in what way she is more likely to complain about being scumread as town).

The most prominent example is Con Mafia (currently ongoing but we can talk about it), where we have out-of-thread communication if we want it and the first thing she says is "Why are people scumreading us? NS prod dodges at either alignment... etc, etc." I've never seen her respond to suspicion like that as scum.

I'll dig up some games we've played together later; I'm headed out for a little while at the moment.

[Nachomamma8]

This is how my reads list is looking at the moment, ffery:

TOWN:
fferyllt
F-16
JasonWazza
Amrun

NULL(ish):
Toomai
MSG

SCUM:
penguin_alien

More good stuff when I return!

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

@ Nacho, your reads mirror mine a lot except ffery, Toomai, and MSG. I am assuming you have Rach as town as well based on your catchup post.

I can see why Toomai's graphs didn't instantly impress you because you weren't instantly impressed last time he pulled them out either which makes sense as town because you don't believe effort = town.

Based on your defense of ffery and hers of Syr, and Syr's of ffery, I am seeing both of you as a package deal. I can't see one of you being scum and one town unless you are badly fooling someone you are closely familiar with. The only exception is that people who know each other often read the other as town early on hoping to co-ordinate reads (example of you trying to link up with Buldermar in Hunterxhunterx). Please note if that is the case with ffery here or you are actually very sure that she is town.

If it is the latter, I am leaning towards either you/ffery team or Penguin/someone else team. I can buy Penguin being scum but I have a hard time buying anyone else as scum. I'll re-evaluate Toomai and MSG and see if anything comes up.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

I just had a revelation: ffery, Stubbs team actually doesn't make a lot of sense although not impossible.
- I declare intent to hammer Stubbs.
- ffery says to wait for Nacho/Syr.
- Stubbs decides to hammer anyways to not allow Syr to come online and post.

Assuming they have daytalk which is likely considering that the previous Nexus game had daytalk, I can't see scum having such contradictory goals. ffery could have just said nothing and let me hammer if she wanted to stifle discussion. Why ask me to wait for her other buddy so that the one that was wagoned can self-hammer? Also I feel ffery would have hammered for the towncred rather than telling her scum-mate to hammer himself. This doesn't say as much about Nacho but I can't see ffery-Stubbs team.

I need to double-check Nacho's game with Toomai. Scratch the previous post about Nacho/ffery as a package deal. There are some possibilities I hadn't considered.

[penguin_alien]

Nacho thinks I'm scum for hedging in early game. Mm-hm. I'd like to think we've played enough games at this point that he'd expect that kind of hesitancy out of me as any alignment.

Looking at one of Stubbs' meatier posts:

I'm having a hard time getting reads, but here's an attempt. Only slight scumreads on Jason for refusing to participate, Squilly for empty votes and Rach for having 2 reads. I'm having especially a lot of difficulty reading Amrun, so I just put him at null. LNG I think is just frustrated town.

Town

oriole

Fegelein

Leaning Town

ChannelDelibird

fferyllt

LnGrrrR

Null

Syryana

penguin_alien

Toomai

Amrun

Leaning Scum

JasonWazza

RachMarie

Squilly

Scum

N/A


P-Edit: Okay so Rach might be town too.

Colors are mine, FTR. Green is conf-town to me, blue is my current strong town reads.

I tend to think that he put one buddy in null and one in leaning town. That makes fferyllt and either Nacho or Toomai scum based on my current reads. I think RachMarie and MSG are town. I need to read the spate of posts that made Toomai such a strong town read for people, but if I concur I'd want to lynch from {fferyllt, Nacho}.

Stubbs' ISO is also rather sparse in interactions with both of those slots, but I might be working from confirmation bias.

At the risk of outguessing the mod, I doubt scum has a third active PR besides the semi-strongman Basilisk and JOAT, so Jason's result does nothing to clear me of anything except Basilisk status.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

Why is Feg/me a strong townread?

[Amrun]

fleahaeheaheheahehaha

I love it when my lynches happen. :3

Jason is pretty incontrovertibly town at this point. There are about 3 pages I haven't read. Might do it in a min might do it later.

[Amrun]

JK I totally read it, and it refreshed me on this game.

I want to do more analysis, but here are my initial thoughts.

JasonWazza and F-16 are people I will never lynch in this game.

I am disinclined to lynch Rach and ffery.

About ffery specifically, I was feeling weird about her not hammering yesterday but then I remembered how she was the first one to realize how LEGIT my Stubbs argument was, and keyed into a particular part of it. This felt like town ffery.

I like nacho's catch up, but I mean like, he's taking pretty safe stances here. P_A is a general scumread, and I'm so town at this point that it's actually funny that scum can't even kill me unless they want to leave Jason alive, which is even FUNNIER. (This doesn't happen often, so let me revel in it, okay?)

In any case, powerlynching within the remaining group of

{Toomai, MSG, P_A} is extremely likely to net the remaining scum. (Am I missing anyone?)

I feel pretty sure that a re-read at least of Day 1 where I tried to start dat Stubbs wagon (and successfully pushed him to a claim) will be even more englightening.

[Amrun]

I'm more inclined to lynch within {Toomai, MSG} given the tracker result, actually.

I'll decide which one of those later. My gut says Toomai but idk.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

Amrun, can you explain your reasoning for Toomai more? I feel pretty strongly that he is town.