Mini 1489 - VisCon: Murder at Wingate Mansion [Game Over]

[Bert]

^two lovers that are not same alignment - typo

[Bert]

Oh, and while I'm in la-la land and trying to complete an assignment... before I forget:

delayed answer @Matt regarding my playstyle:

Spoiler:

I do play and lynch by gut, but I really don't have a choice. My game has to rely on and does rely on 99% real-time interactions, keeping up with the game on my phone 247 (doesn't mean I'm posting, but I keep up). I try to be logical in describing why my gut feels what it feels through real-time, but digging up enough facts/explanations to be convincing - can't do that well and that won't change. See earlier when I replaced in, where I never quite grasped everything going on in the first 10 pages that I missed. I have gut feelings, and I let the game seep in as I check my games briefly - let the subconscious do some work too. You may see teeny little spurts where it seems I can do more than that, but I can be no more than a flash in the pan. I don't actually "read" material thoroughly - maybe many years ago this would have been possible, but certainly not now.

I have hit a plateau in skill level here, for the most part a semi-VI, non-threatening player, as I will never be "reading" and "putting pieces together for a whole game." All superficial skimming, and I think about my games a lot. Only thing left is maintaining my composure better, emulating my towngame better as scum so as to be a challenge to hunt down, applying tips and advice where possible, and last of all never enough experience experience experience. Putting together cases, if done, will be very brief and likely not convincing. It is what it is <3

But in terms of effectively going through games and looking into anything more than the peripheral, not gonna happen. I've never really explained this anywhere before, but this can be a reference so I don't ever type this again anywhere here.

If anyone made it to here and your name isn't Matt, don't you dare go "self-metaing, huh? that's pathetic!" It happens!

Love, Bert

[Tammy]

Self metaing pff that's pathetic. It certainly isn't something I'd stoop too.

[Bert]

Lol @ Tammy

Umm okay bedtime reads list brought to you by my puppy

Town
Tammy


Nacho





Empire


Qwints



Matt/Marangal (still in a pickle, 50/50 lean)

Scum

That is where I stand.

[Empire]

Just got back from the ceremonies and stuff, this is mostly just to avoid the prod. Will post tomorrow.

[Bert]

I just looked up what a Ninja is.

Shoot, sounds plausible (but is it likely?) due to the claimed existence of a watcher

[qwints]

You need to get your story straight qwints. Your number crunching assumes me town, then you revert to the party line I'm scum. And I'm only scum given my actions toDay? So before your teammate poisoned me you had me as town? so why was the poisoning wasted on me?

If you're scum, we've almost certainly won and the numbers don't matter. The analysis only applies if you're tow. The former is increasingly likely today as you take a ridiculous position (the set-up required makes no sense). Mara poisoned you mostly out of PoE, and I was fine relying on her call since she's already hit one scum.

[projectmatt]

First of all, I don't think Generic is mafia. There is almost certainly one mafia left and if he was actually going to die for sure today, you think he would just give up. Considering he's towntold pretty strongly this game though, I'm more than a little disappointed that was your choice.

Bert -I understand your playstyle more thoroughly more, thank you. However, I do not think that Maragnal is scum and I am under the impression that one of the players in the "general townread" area is probably mafia and I'm struggling to figure out who. As I'm sure you guys understand, well, everyone has towntold to the extent that it really sucks to try and determine which one of you is actually mafia.

Again, I've been very busy with school (but I just found out I have my first drumming gig in front of 300+ people this weekend so I am self congratulating ) but this is to let you guys know that I'm reading and trying to come to a conclusion about what the best move today is. The way I see it, I will no longer be alive in this game for very long with the way it's going which is why I'm doing my best to make a good plan for you guys to actually listen to.

[Bert]

Tammy and Empire, how confident are you on your reads about each other?

From Matt's standpoint if he were scum, I can't see him being scared of being "watched" and not killing Tammy or the lovers.

However, I can see one of the universal townreads not taking a risk on killing the lovers (or Tammy if she's town). The risk is being watched, assuming the ninja does not exist.

The first NK can be chalked up to a ninja, of course, however unlikely that may be. Probably they would have targeted Tammy. Of course, they could have just NKed for no good reason, but if Empire, Tammy, and Nacho are town, why would they not kill Empire or Nacho?? That would be a clear kill with protection unlikely.

Then, I would have to contemplate either that (1) Tammy's scum - seriously doubt it because claiming self-protect would make her staying alive make sense - she would have no incentive to no-kill when there are no other claimed PR's that can hunt her down....or (2) Scum did not want to take a chance at being watched

I think that (2) is vastly more likely - I have a question though - is it likely or possible that Scum got paranoid about Tammy self-watching (even before she claimed that ability)? That could explain the NKs. The universal townread and non-ninja not willing to take a chance at guessing wrong (33% of getting "watched" by Tammy). I have never seen a doctor/watcher role or claim so I am not an expert about it.

Doing so ensures that we get rid of Matt first and take ourselves to LYLO with them 100% still a townread, with no chance of them being outed as guilty.

Thoughts?

Nacho, I don't know how to get you to firm up your read on me, but seriously I don't think I've ever been more transparent and engaged as I am in this game, at least not since maybe Popcorn.

[Bert]

EBWOP: I can't see Matt being scared of going after his targets - why? Because he was going to be poisoned soon or lynched anyway, and unless he gets rid of Mara, then his shelf-life is rather short. I don't see him not taking a chance on qwints or Mara pre-fullclaims about Mara not dependent on qwints's survival, but the vice versa being true (or do I have that backwards).

[Bert]

Scum killing one of the universal townreads would induce lots of paranoia in me about the lovers being scum or Tammy being scum, but most of all, it would make me paranoid about one of the universal townreads being scum, above all other paranoia reactions.

Then there's that other side of my brain telling me that a ninja makes perfect sense with a watcher here. *sigh*

[Generic]

I don't care if he is scum anymore, matt has spoke the most sense of the day (with regards to me that is )

Mara, the supposed town poisoner... Town. Poisoner.

I have played over 60 games, not once had the fucking poisoner been town. Yet I have played in numerous games where a lover told exists on both sides yet are traitors to both their teams.

And IM the one talking crazy. The town poisoner was accepted without question as perfectly fine.

I'm done posting here unless asked a question. My vote is in, I die at day end... Tammy, I put our chances of winning this on your shoulders as the only sane town player. You will be a target at some point, mara will poison tonight no matter what bullshit she spews here.

[Bert]

Nacho,

Have you honestly just questioned why qwints would clear mara as town? Seriously?

I have seen and used numerous lovers setups which have the following setup:
One lover town
One lover mafia
Both actually third party, and win as a team separate from both their teams.

Now why would they clear each other as town? It's a mystery.

Mara, respond to this. Have you seen this setup before outlined by Generic?

I don't care if he is scum anymore, matt has spoke the most sense of the day (with regards to me that is )

Mara, the supposed town poisoner... Town. Poisoner.

I have played over 60 games, not once had the fucking poisoner been town. Yet I have played in numerous games where a lover told exists on both sides yet are traitors to both their teams.

And IM the one talking crazy. The town poisoner was accepted without question as perfectly fine.

I'm done posting here unless asked a question. My vote is in, I die at day end... Tammy, I put our chances of winning this on your shoulders as the only sane town player. You will be a target at some point, mara will poison tonight no matter what bullshit she spews here.

What do you mean they are traitors?

And why is Empire not a sane town player?? :/

[Bert]

*traitors to both of their teams

how does that work

[Generic]

One lover is scum but has a lover in the town. If they survive they hijack the win. I would call that traitors to the mafia and town, wouldn't you?

[Bert]

I don't care if he is scum anymore, matt has spoke the most sense of the day (with regards to me that is )

Actually, the last person to say that about me turned out to be scum (WIFOM by me, I know, I know...).

But Matt cannot be scum if Mara's scum. Right? So if you believe Mara's scum, then Matt cannot be scum - at least doubtful?

One lover is scum but has a lover in the town. If they survive they hijack the win. I would call that traitors to the mafia and town, wouldn't you?

But it's not necessarily the poisoner that is a traitor? So it could be qwints? And in that setup, do they die together, or is it weird like this setup where Mara is claiming that one's survival does not hinge on the other's survival?

[Bert]

What gets me is there being a N1 kill on Llamarble, and Mara got to poison on N1 as well. So I can't see them being on one team. Maybe traitor to the town, but not mafia, then? theoretical

[Bert]

I'm thinking SK, actually, since you mentioned her claiming town as an SK early on. Sorry for the triple-post, brain going a mile a minute.

[Generic]

Lovers always die together as I've seen it bert.

It's stereotypical Romeo and Juliet, opposing families who suicide pact.

[Generic]

And I haven't ruled out matt could be scum if I'm wrong about mara, but I agree it's either or... It could either be that you can replace matt with you bert. You were first on the mara wagon, still there I think, yet YOU are quizzing ME on why she is scum.

And the wifom you just tossed out doesnt help. But I'm bulletproof now, mudslinging at me gets nobody anywhere cos I'm dead anyway. So your efforts are better spent (town or scum this is) focusing on the lynch choice.

[Bert]

OK, I was wondering because of:

we both die if I am killed at any point during today, I don't die if qwints is the one who is lynched/killed or w/e

so Bussing isn't totally outside the realm of possibility if we are both scum AND I didn't even have to proactivly defend the Qwints wagon

This is far-fetched for a traditional lover pair then, for Mara to not die with qwints' death (whether it be a NK or lynch).

[Bert]

And I haven't ruled out matt could be scum if I'm wrong about mara, but I agree it's either or... It could either be that you can replace matt with you bert. You were first on the mara wagon, still there I think, yet YOU are quizzing ME on why she is scum.

And the wifom you just tossed out doesnt help. But I'm bulletproof now, mudslinging at me gets nobody anywhere cos I'm dead anyway. So your efforts are better spent (town or scum this is) focusing on the lynch choice.

Actually, I suspect Mara is scum and will poison me tonight. And if I'm wrong about her, I get lynched tomorrow.

Do you see the universal townreads getting lynched before me (or one of the lovers?)

I doubt it.

So I'm as good as dead tomorrow. You know that.

[Bert]

After Matt dies and you do too (I think both will flip town tbh), then it's me or Tammy or Empire or Nacho or the lovers. I'm not gonna win that battle, which is what I'm trying to get across to Nacho who is hellbent that Matt is likely scum (which I no longer agree with). But I'll go with Matt at the deadline because there's no chance for any other lynch. My discussion here is all in vain for the most part.

[Bert]

And I'm quizzing you because I actually care about this game and am going through every possible scenario there is. As I just told Nacho, I am rarely if ever this engaged in a game. Hasn't happened since my 2nd or 3rd mafia game here.

[Generic]

How about you lynch me then?

If there is no night kill and mara claims she hasn't poisoned, you are left with no bullshit finger pointing at me as scum to try and complicate the discussion, and you are left with 7 of you (nowhere near lylo).

For me mara is openly side stepping points and trying to keep discussion on how I'm scum, so is qwints. A no lynch or lynching of me removes the concerns over lynch choice for deadline, so now you all start cycling discussing the potentials of every single remaining member actually being scum. Case all of you. Then look at the cases and dismiss the three that seem most farfetched.
The remaining three (the lovers count as one here now) are your big discussion area for the next day.