Mini 1489 - VisCon: Murder at Wingate Mansion [Game Over]

[Bert]

The optimal play here for y'all is to lynch me and have Mara poison Matt (or the other way around) - IDK if Mara will oblige, and if she does, we have no way to know if she really followed through - like that Generic poison which she made her decision on her own. That way, tomorrow is 2 vs. 3 lylo + 1 (poisoned). Because Mara probably won't poison me by the looks of how she's talking.

If Mara poisons someone else other than me and has me lynched, then game over if Mara's scum. We have no control over that.

Matt + 3 + 2 lovers

And if Empire Nacho and Tammy decide they are all three super super town, then MAYBE they will decide to lynch the lovers. OR, Empire Nacho and Tammy one of them is scum and gets lynched hopefully.

also,

for what it's worth, I think if Matt and you flip town, and I get poisoned or lynched or something, then it's Empire because he has waited till the deadline on each day just to see where everyone's going, and then sheep. That is what has bothered me, despite him being spot on in every other facet.

[Generic]

Oh, and if someone is poisoned you go into that next night knowing she is lying scum, win win.


Pedit: what? Bert, number crunch that for me like I'm 5 years old.

[Bert]

EBWOP: But it doesn't make sense that Tammy and Empire would have no killing ability and not get rid of Nacho before he has a chance to figure them out. So still leaning Mara if it's not Matt. tbh.

[Bert]

Oh, and if someone is poisoned you go into that next night knowing she is lying scum, win win.


Pedit: what? Bert, number crunch that for me like I'm 5 years old.

If we lynch someone else not named Generic today (sorry I'm not making good sense today and being really verbose (sp?)

today: 2 vs. 6 or 1 vs. 7, but you don't count. So 2 vs. 5 or 1 vs. 6

tomorrow is 2 vs. 3, effectively LYLO, or 1 vs. 4 (subtract 1 from 2 vs. 5 because of tonight's poisoning possibility, then subtract 1 more for today's lynch (matt likely).

And no, they will not no lynch today. Fortunately or unfortunately

[Generic]

I feel vindicated if mara or empire are scum. Two of the three I called page two being scum is a good call


See by your numbers how the no lynch or my lynch benefits us.

[Bert]

It makes tomorrow MYLO at worst (if someone is poisoned tonight who is town, assuming Mara is town). Tomorrow becomes more complicated, yes, but Tammy at least if town has a chance of saving a kill tomorrow night (which will be hard and unlikely). That's all I can think of.

[Bert]

Vote: No Lynch

[Bert]

How about NL, then have Mara poison me or Matt, and then NL tomorrow, and then have Mara poison me (since none of you are receptive to ever lynching the lovers anyways), and then if tehre are no kills on 4 consecutive nights, and Tammy sees nothing, then something's seriously up.

1 or 2 nights, maybe someone missed a kill or something, and the other there's a ninja, who knows...

but 4 in a row is... crazy

can help us get a better look at the overall picture

[Bert]

I will limit myself,

to haiku-speak for reasons,

please meet Bert-haiku.

Spoiler:

Matt has not written,

much poetry as of late,

might he change that soon?

He may die today,

but his poetry shall not,

I demand he write.

[Ms Marangal]

Nacho,

Have you honestly just questioned why qwints would clear mara as town? Seriously?

I have seen and used numerous lovers setups which have the following setup:
One lover town
One lover mafia
Both actually third party, and win as a team separate from both their teams.

Now why would they clear each other as town? It's a mystery.

Mara, respond to this. Have you seen this setup before outlined by Generic?

WTF?

no, and this is bull-shit. It makes no sense, why would there be a town traitor?

I have never seen town with an wincon that is different from actual town, I'm pretty damn sure this would skirt the line of bastardly set-ups

[Ms Marangal]

If matt isn't getting lynched today, he's getting poisoned tonight

[Tammy]

I just looked up what a Ninja is.

Shoot, sounds plausible (but is it likely?) due to the claimed existence of a watcher

Well it wouldn't be all that necessary if it was just me because I don't actually see anything; I just know if someone else visited. I embellished that when I thought that Mara/Qwints were full lovers who would die if either died so that they'd pick me instead of me having to roll the dice to figure out which one of them I should heal.

So, a ninja would be silly in that regard. HOWEVER, we have no idea what Llamarble was if anything.

If Llamarble was nothing, then Mara is more than likely town because what's the purpose of a doctor if not to protect a pr? I mean why would there just be a doctor an nothing else?

ALSO, if Llamarble was nothing then there is definitely no need for a ninja because town power would be right without the scum team having anything.

But we can't know that, so Llamarble was probably something. If he was a tracker then there could be the possibility of a ninja I guess. But I'm still worried that there's just too little town power for the scum team to have a ninja in that situation.

The lack of nightkills is driving me insane though. And if weren't for the fact that I know if someone else visited who I healed, then maybe I'd be stupidly patting myself on the back about being an awesome doctor, but I can't because unless a ninja for some reason no one has visited me or mara.

I mean what kind of scum would no kill two nights in a row?

[Tammy]

Tammy and Empire, how confident are you on your reads about each other?[/url]

I feel pretty good. The way he reacted to me when I was paranoid of him day one fit with what I would expect from him as town. I do think he would have killed me night one, even if I was town reading him then. He knows that I have a tendency to get paranoid after day 3 hits, and I'd be watching him to see if my read of him could be held up as I think even if he was able to start off strong he'd get demotivated pretty fast. I'm more paranoid about Nacho/Mara/Qwints than I am empire.

I'm going to reread the game over the next few days though to try to strengthen how I feel here because something's wrong.

Then, I would have to contemplate either that (1) Tammy's scum - seriously doubt it because claiming self-protect would make her staying alive make sense - she would have no incentive to no-kill when there are no other claimed PR's that can hunt her down....or (2) Scum did not want to take a chance at being watched

I think that (2) is vastly more likely - I have a question though - is it likely or possible that Scum got paranoid about Tammy self-watching (even before she claimed that ability)? That could explain the NKs. The universal townread and non-ninja not willing to take a chance at guessing wrong (33% of getting "watched" by Tammy). I have never seen a doctor/watcher role or claim so I am not an expert about it.

Doing so ensures that we get rid of Matt first and take ourselves to LYLO with them 100% still a townread, with no chance of them being outed as guilty.

Thoughts?

Nacho, I don't know how to get you to firm up your read on me, but seriously I don't think I've ever been more transparent and engaged as I am in this game, at least not since maybe Popcorn.

I wouldn't no kill. But the thing is I guess I can see a no kill that first night after I claimed because they might not have wanted to take a chance that I could see them. However, yesterday I confessed that I'm only a blind watcher. I don't see identities; I just know if someone else visited. So, there was no reason not to take a chance and kill last night. Unless they thought I was still bluffing, but then that would have to be someone who's never really played with me. I'm not a big gambiter.

I guess it could be someone who is on Mara's town list so doesn't really have to worry about getting poisoned and could be no killing to get the poison + lynch. I don't know.

[Tammy]

If matt isn't getting lynched today, he's getting poisoned tonight

I thought you said you weren't poisoning tonight if Generic came back town.

[Bert]

Nacho bussing Desperado for towncred does make sense. His argument can be "I had no need to do that, why would I ever do that as scum."

And isn't it interesting how Nacho suddenly said Shadoweh was scum on D2 when he had been against a Shadoweh-lynch on D1? On D2, I called him out on that and he answered me weirdly.

My last scum game, Desperado explicitly said in the QT during N1 that he was the one that would likely not be able to go far, and that it was important that Penguin and I stay alive. He literally suicided on D3 via gambit, and also took one for the team on D2 by quickhammering a bodyguard who had not claimed because he would likely have been next to go. In addition, he remarked he had been playing poorly throughout. That's not much confidence right there.

Nacho has not felt right, in the way he has been pushing lynches.

No, I started endorsing Shadoweh as town in order to stop a flashwagon. I was willing to vote llamarble then because he wasn't really looking that town yet, and he was a better lynch than Shadoweh because a Llamarble flip would at least help sort out Desperado.

It's weird that he started talking about Shadoweh as a scumread only after D2 began, which makes me wonder if Shadoweh knew about the poisoning and relayed it to Nacho before it was revealed to all the town.

Nacho's not going to be poisoned, ever. If Mara's not scum, and Matt's not, Nacho is a real possibility. I mean, even he has me as his weakest townread. Has he tried to figure you out the way he should? Or do you think he's just reading you as town town town and you're OK with that?

The no-NKing thing is all WIFOM unless scum really has no kill-ability left.

[Tammy]

Tbf I really don't question it come day 4 when the people who should be reading me as town are reading me as town, and there are probably at least a couple handfuls of things I couldn't/wouldn't have been able to do or replicate as scum. It would probably make me turn my head if he did have to sort me out.

I thought it was odd he had to sort you out and am interested in how that develops.

I am still bothered by his lack of reaction to you and I voting him day two and the push for a quicklynch yesterday.

I'm going to reread the game over the next opulent days though and go from there.

I just can't accept there's scum left without a killing ability if Mara is town.

[Empire]

I'm catching up right now but need to respond to these two things first before I ponder the setup.

She announced the Generic kill in the neighborhood beforehand?

Yeah but I wasn't around to stop it from happening and I'm honestly just hating myself for it.

Like, the gravity of how shitty that poisoning was only hit me just recently.

I've been kind of tuned out since it looks like an autowin.

Let's be honest here, you were never tuned in.

[Tammy]

Oh Bert - I answered you about empire in 2237 but I fucked up the quotes.

[Empire]

For anyone who cares, I just looked up the setup in FG's last game and it had a Mafia Ninja, just food for thought.

(Almost done catching up.)

[Empire]

My last scum game, Desperado explicitly said in the QT during N1 that he was the one that would likely not be able to go far, and that it was important that Penguin and I stay alive. He literally suicided on D3 via gambit, and also took one for the team on D2 by quickhammering a bodyguard who had not claimed because he would likely have been next to go. In addition, he remarked he had been playing poorly throughout. That's not much confidence right there.

Ok this is something that actually really needs to get looked at. Maybe I'm just tired but if discussion in the scum QT pregame centered around Desperado getting bussed, it could explain why he fakeclaimed something impossible and why he just generally seemed distant.

[Empire]

Ok so the way I understand it is that we basically have two scenarios here:

1) Desperado/Shadoweh was one entire scum team and the missing NKs are due to the fact that they're gone now. Marangal/qwints are basically a weird second scum team with a poison shot as their NK. While this theory does explain why we've been having trouble finding the scum in this game (as both scum teams could have been genuinely hunting the other team), it basically requires Llamarble to have been a town PR and even then I find this theory kind of stretchy (two town PRs vs. two scum teams, both with factional NKs? How is that balanced at all?).

2) We only have one scum team (Desperado/Shadoweh/???) and the final member of the team is either a Ninja who whiffed twice due to Tammy's protect or has been intentionally no-killing for god knows what reason.

Honestly, I'm not sure Llamarble was a town PR. The way I had the setup pictured in my head w.r.t. the Neighborhood distribution was:
Guests -> Town PR, Town Vanilla, Town Vanilla
Wingates -> Town PR, Town Lover there to balance the Town PR's power, Scum Vanilla, Town Vanilla (I do think Shadoweh was Vanilla, as that seems to make sense given what we know + there was a Mafia Neighbor in the last FG game with no additional power)

Someone (Bert?) asked me how sure I am about Tammy's alignment and all I have to say about that I'll be pretty surprised to say the least if she turns out to be scum here somehow (she won't).

I'm leaning towards #2 right now but this has been basically a long, useless waffly post because I have no idea what's going on in this game anymore.

[Empire]

Marangal and qwints, the next time you get in here, can you guys paraphrase your flavor?

Also, Bert, are you allowed to link the scum QT to the Castle game here?

Thanks in advance.

I need to think about this some more, this game's been really bizarre.

[Nachomamma8]

What incentive does Matt have to not have shot ANYONE (even Empire or any other universal townread - not to mention the claimed PR's), knowing he's next to the top of the list (if not at the top) and about to be poisoned due to (1) a neighborhood being "clear" and (2) "town" claimed lovers. That, and replacing a relatively null-scum slot.

When a scum slot is absolutely and completely fucked, the incentive they have to do ridiculous gambits are always high reward/low risk gambits. Think of me-scum in the newbie game that lasted until Day 7. What incentive did I have to keep playing?

I am not suggesting that you are crazy, but this is a bundle of WIFOM. That's like Tammy asking during that Skype game whether I would ever be so blatant as to buddy my scumbuddy (you, Nacho) as blatantly as I did during that Skype game. Please don't do this.

No. Would Ms Marangal, as a human being playing multiball scum who is a CLAIMED MASON LOVER POISONER, put in a skype game third party lovers with a kill? No, probably not. You would not have even thought of this possibility until Ms Marangal put it in herself, no?

Why would he not kill Tammy or take a shot at the lovers before they take him out? This does not add up.

Why would any other player in the game not shoot the lovers?
Why wouldn't Marangal poison Generic earlier?

Please tell me you would lynch Mara or qwints over empire or tammy. Please.

Of course. I'd lynch either of them before you, Empire, or Tammy.

Let's say I'm scum and have a kill. I would take a shot at the lovers (or Tammy first), if I were Matt, as I would know that my shelf-life is absurdly short due to overall perceived scumminess. No-killing several nights in a row, no. Where is the incentive, Nacho? I don't see it, unless the scum likes bringing confirmed towns and letting these threats (Empire, Tammy, you) live a long time and figure everything out. I seriously doubt scum will act in such a moronic manner as such.

If you were scum who was guaranteed to lose the next day, what would you do?

Con Mafia, where a sudden daykill ruined our chances.

In CON MAFIA, we were ruined for not using all of our weapons against a scum setup. In CON MAFIA, what were the bad suspicions? The bad suspicions were suspicions based on paranoia (suspicion against us).

That's the kind of pressure that has been present with you. I think you're town, don't get me wrong.

But the entire time, the pressure has been to do the protown thing.
Matt has done absolutely nothing townish this entire fucking game; mara hunted and killed scum. Shadoweh pretended to be town after she was poisoned; why would she do that if she was the last one on her team???

I'm biased but also can't say I'm pleased with how receptive you are about our theorizing.

I am perfectly receptive to logical theorizing. In fact, I can't remember a time where I freaked out about theorizing being completely off the wall and bad.
There is no evidence of it being multiball.
Mara poisoned Shadoweh Day 2.
Mara's play has been town as fuck.

But no, a no kill comes and it's multiball and the claimed town lovers are actually a third party scumteam even though it was fucking YESTERDAY when no one would let me lynch matt while shoe was dying because "oh everyone is town". Can you feel my frustration? Can you feel my pain? Every loss in every mafia game comes from stupid lynches. In Con Mafia, Stubbs and Marquis were both stupid lynches. Now, you're lynching Mara because of a NO KILL. NOT a guilty. NOT any role-related information. A NO KILL. You know the scumteam has a no kill in their disposal. Why wouldn't they use it? Why would Mara counterclaim actual scum as otherscum team? Why did she get that fakeclaim? Nothing towards Mara scum adds up in the least bit and I can rant against that all I like but I won't be able to talk about it or refute it because there is nothing to refute there is no logic no meaning to the madness it's all just madness.

First of all, I don't think Generic is mafia. There is almost certainly one mafia left and if he was actually going to die for sure today, you think he would just give up. Considering he's towntold pretty strongly this game though, I'm more than a little disappointed that was your choice.

OH THANKS MATT
APPRECIATE THIS CONTRIBUTION QUITE A BIT

Nacho, I don't know how to get you
to firm up your read on me, but seriously I don't think I've ever been more transparent and engaged as I am in this game, at least not since maybe Popcorn.

you're town it's OK

[Nachomamma8]

She announced the Generic kill in the neighborhood beforehand?

Yeah but I wasn't around to stop it from happening and I'm honestly just hating myself for it.

Like, the gravity of how shitty that poisoning was only hit me just recently.

^confirmed evidence Mara wasn't trying to make the mislynch pool smaller^
my god, mara's paranoia is LEGENDARY
she was still waffling us in con mafia, why would she be able to wipe generic out of her head completely?
you people are paranoid of FUCKING MARANGAL
the hypocrisy is outstanding

[Nachomamma8]

but honestly that's OK
i'm not as frustrated as my overly ranty nature might make me seem
there's just gonna be a giant heap of i told you so served in this postgame

next: what matt's done lately, set to "rolling in the deep" by adele