Mini 1492: Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets GAME OVER

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

I thought I acknowledged that in my post last night? That I was seeing strong defense in some posts and interpreting it as offense in my first readthrough.

You said that you had interpreted strong defense as offense in a lot of posts and decided not to mention those posts. I was referring to the post I quoted where you said "aggressive questioning" in response to a defense.

[Nachomamma8]

I also don't use differing reads as a scumtell for players unless I know them pretty well; a strong attack on me from this point by someone like Rach would be far different than if ffery were to attack me.

How so?

Rach calling me scum and attacking the shit out of me would be something that scumRach is extremely unlikely to do. You calling me scum and attacking the shit out of me would be something different entirely; it's a move I wouldn't expect, but it would be a move that I'd have to analyze and wouldn't be able to write off as "oh she's attacking me she's town".

Well alright I'll slap together a big-o list.

I like the start of this; interested in seeing where this is going.

I actually think fferyllt is being aggressive in a different way than normal for her town game. It's a less productive aggression? I'm not sure, and it's late, almost 2 AM; I'll come back to this tomorrow (or, well, later today...)

being too aggressive to be ffery's towngame is something i've never heard before

Not bleeding with time right now, so I'll be back soon.

[penguin_alien]

Maybe I'm used to reading fferyllt as a hydra, maybe I'm expecting her replacement game. But she makes a huge case on me Day Two, doesn't vote. Doesn't like Stubbs's mismatched claim, and when Stubbs flips scum, she doesn't seem to actually re-evaluate and reach new conclusions. There's discussion of things she thought about, but none of them actually impact her reads list as presented so far. The aggression I was talking about stems from that--she's saying things that sound like they probe the game state, but it's all past tense.

WRT Stubbs, reading fferyllt's ISO reminded me of his self-hammer. At the risk of jumping into bad territory, it seems more likely that scum would self-hammer with at least one teammate positioned to get town cred. His wagon was Amrun, RachMarie, Toomai, MSG, and me. I think he was doomed by Day Three anyways, because scum couldn't afford to let all the PRs live, and once one flipped his claim would look lousier. So the question is, how did his self-hammer benefit his faction? I'd say ending discussion, but the LnGrrrR NK didn't remove a super-vocal player.

I'd like to hear from Amrun and RachMarie here, given their early position on the scum wagon.

[fferyllt]

Rach calling me scum and attacking the shit out of me would be something that scumRach is extremely unlikely to do. You calling me scum and attacking the shit out of me would be something different entirely; it's a move I wouldn't expect, but it would be a move that I'd have to analyze and wouldn't be able to write off as "oh she's attacking me she's town".

I don't think I've ever attacked you when you were town. Including the MS games we've played where I was scum. At some point my scum game might grow in that direction, but I wouldn't hold my breath.

I have taken a few runs at you when you were scum though.

[fferyllt]

Maybe I'm used to reading fferyllt as a hydra, maybe I'm expecting her replacement game. But she makes a huge case on me Day Two, doesn't vote. Doesn't like Stubbs's mismatched claim, and when Stubbs flips scum, she doesn't seem to actually re-evaluate and reach new conclusions. There's discussion of things she thought about, but none of them actually impact her reads list as presented so far. The aggression I was talking about stems from that--she's saying things that sound like they probe the game state, but it's all past tense.

WRT Stubbs, reading fferyllt's ISO reminded me of his self-hammer. At the risk of jumping into bad territory, it seems more likely that scum would self-hammer with at least one teammate positioned to get town cred. His wagon was Amrun, RachMarie, Toomai, MSG, and me. I think he was doomed by Day Three anyways, because scum couldn't afford to let all the PRs live, and once one flipped his claim would look lousier. So the question is, how did his self-hammer benefit his faction? I'd say ending discussion, but the LnGrrrR NK didn't remove a super-vocal player.

I'd like to hear from Amrun and RachMarie here, given their early position on the scum wagon.

You have a lot to say about me. But, you're not trying to engage me.

[penguin_alien]

OK, straight out--how did Stubbs flipping scum change your take on this game?

[fferyllt]

OK, straight out--how did Stubbs flipping scum change your take on this game?

It put Jason in solid town territory. It also called some of Syr's day 1 play into question. I was more than half-expecting a scum flip after F16's arguments about the ability names. I wanted Syr's reactions to the day 2 arguments made for scum-Stubbs before the day closed.

It also gave me pause about MSG's slot, but I think I've got that sorted to buddying town rather than scum associatives.

[fferyllt]

Same question back. How did his flip affect your take on the game state?

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

I was more than half-expecting a scum flip after F16's arguments about the ability names.

What are you talking about? You said you didn't buy my argument about ability names and that Stubbs was scum for different reasons.

I point out my concerns:

I don't buy it. All the abilities both in this game and in the previous one are based on the theme.

1) Fred and George's sibling abilities are called "Gred and Forge"
2) Snape's Jailkeeper ability is called "Detention"
3) Peeves's vanilla cop ability is called "Haunting"
4) Lockhart's useless ability is called "Vend"
5) Filch's abilities are called "Follower" "Reporter" and "Voyeur"

Yours doesn't fit in. There is no way I can see Colin's abilities actually being "cop" "doc" and roleblock"

And you reply:

The Filch abilities are actual abilities/roles listed in the mafiascum wiki.

That's not where my discomfort lies. It's more about the power differences in their abilities.

[fferyllt]

Right, and then F16 and I talked about it a page or two later and it clicked. Filches abilities are real role names, and that was what threw me at first.

[penguin_alien]

Looking at one of Stubbs' meatier posts:

I'm having a hard time getting reads, but here's an attempt. Only slight scumreads on Jason for refusing to participate, Squilly for empty votes and Rach for having 2 reads. I'm having especially a lot of difficulty reading Amrun, so I just put him at null. LNG I think is just frustrated town.

Town

oriole

Fegelein

Leaning Town

ChannelDelibird

fferyllt

LnGrrrR

Null

Syryana

penguin_alien

Toomai

Amrun

Leaning Scum

JasonWazza

RachMarie

Squilly

Scum

N/A


P-Edit: Okay so Rach might be town too.

Colors are mine, FTR. Green is conf-town to me, blue is my current strong town reads.

I tend to think that he put one buddy in null and one in leaning town. That makes fferyllt and either Nacho or Toomai scum based on my current reads. I think RachMarie and MSG are town. I need to read the spate of posts that made Toomai such a strong town read for people, but if I concur I'd want to lynch from {fferyllt, Nacho}.

Stubbs' ISO is also rather sparse in interactions with both of those slots, but I might be working from confirmation bias.

Here's my big takeaway from Stubbs' flip. You even commented on it in #726, saying that at least I wasn't going after low-hanging fruit.

As of #741, you have Syryana as town for Day One play. And in #681, you said that if Syr was scum with Stubbs you thought he'd have bussed for town cred, not a change from your general town read on him.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

Penguin, can you answer my question about MSG?

Can you elaborate on what this difference was as far as reading MSG's posts in his ISO and reading them in thread? I want to see what your thought process was here. How did it lead you to different conclusions? (I am assuming you meant "weakest scum read" in 791).

Also, when did this change happen? You voted MSG Day 2 and continued to push him as scummy. Day 3, you came out saying that MSG is town. What happened in the interim to change your mind?

[RachMarie]

sorry all will be back tomorrow as if life had not done enough my net went down for several hours and it is now after 4 AM. bleh

Also when did I do that Nacho? I usually assume you are town early on then narrow you down later though until I am more confident you are town, I tend to take you with a fair pound of salt.

[fferyllt]

I was more than half-expecting a scum flip after F16's arguments about the ability names.

What are you talking about? You said you didn't buy my argument about ability names and that Stubbs was scum for different reasons.

I point out my concerns:

I don't buy it. All the abilities both in this game and in the previous one are based on the theme.

1) Fred and George's sibling abilities are called "Gred and Forge"
2) Snape's Jailkeeper ability is called "Detention"
3) Peeves's vanilla cop ability is called "Haunting"
4) Lockhart's useless ability is called "Vend"
5) Filch's abilities are called "Follower" "Reporter" and "Voyeur"

Yours doesn't fit in. There is no way I can see Colin's abilities actually being "cop" "doc" and roleblock"

And you reply:

The Filch abilities are actual abilities/roles listed in the mafiascum wiki.

That's not where my discomfort lies. It's more about the power differences in their abilities.

I need to quit staying up late to play mafia. I thought PA made this post when I read it.

F16, I did not really buy into the whole package when you first posted it because the Filch abilities are actual roles, not flavorful synonyms. But, they do fit the flavor much better than Stubbs' claimed abilities did. At the time of this back and forth, I was more convinced that the strong vs weak JOAT abilities pointed to scum-Stubbs, but the ability names argument did sink in.

[Toomai]

Well I got blammed and had no free time, so I'll try again to finish the rest of the players shortly. Wanted to respond to this though:

Toomai's latest list of individual posts and his reactions to them--some of it revolves around people pointing things out. Some of it's approving of the content of posts, but there's no personal investment there. Such as saying something is sensible, or reasonable--scum are rarely gibbering idiots; scum can be reasonable and sensible and make good points. His reads aren't based on alignment-indicative things from what I can tell. In the above list, his negatives are for filler (if it's coming from town) and an argument he doesn't like. Not one that he's refuting or pointing out problems with--he just doesn't like it. And nearly everything is weighted the same, except the one Amrun post that's 'just town' with no further qualifiers.

My general rationale is that, while scum can (and do) make rational and sensible posts, in the long run town should make more of them overall. Townies want to find new points of view, holes in arguments, links, and the like; scum only really want to find as many as necessary to look town and avoid bringing the more dissonant ones to the forefront. There's not much negative with what I've done so far because they were both comparatively strong town reads.

[Nexus]

“You will find that I will only truly have left this school when none here are loyal to me. You will also find that help will be given at Hogwarts to those who ask for it.” ”

- Dumbledore

Votecount 3.2:

Toomai (1)-

Nachomamma8

fferyllt (1)-

MSG

Not voting (7)-

penguin_alien, fferyllt, JasonWazza, Amrun, Toomai, F16_Fighting_Falcon, RachMarie

Still waiting on an MSG replacement. JasonWazza and Amrun have been prodded.

With 9 alive it takes 5 to lynch. Deadline is at 10pm BST Friday 4th October 2013

[Nachomamma8]

But she makes a huge case on me Day Two, doesn't vote.

Why does this matter?

Also when did I do that Nacho? I usually assume you are town early on then narrow you down later though until I am more confident you are town, I tend to take you with a fair pound of salt.

That was a hypothetical.

[Nachomamma8]

Nachomamma8: unchanged, still null

I've been bleeding content since I replaced in; what is this?

fferyllt is more overtly aggressive and less bridge-buildy than normal?

Why do you dislike fferyllt case on you without a vote then? It doesn't seem aggressive if she's not using her vote to lynch the hell out of you; it seems more like a sorting than anything, which is not that aggressive and decently bridge-buildy. Do you disagree?

not seeing town-Nacho based on other games of actually playing with him,

What does town-Nacho look like, exactly?

The aggression I was talking about stems from that--she's saying things that sound like they probe the game state, but it's all past tense.

This is not being overly aggressive; this is talking about old things that don't matter and I don't think ffery is doing that either.

[Amrun]

oops, catch up tonight

[JasonWazza]

Post, honestly at this point i can't really find any motivation to post.

VOTE: Toomai

Feels like a good vote.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

I don't like Toomai lynch.

I was looking through Nacho's meta in Amnesiac mafia and instead fferyllt's posts caught my eye. Her play here is nothing like her town game.

[fferyllt]

This exchange is from a recently completed game where one of the Amnesiac players had me in his suspect list from day 1 onward because my play (though in my opinion was as obvtown as I know how to be) was not like that game.

Spoiler: Cephrir and me-SoS in Open 527

ffery still isn't doing what I expect of her but she's getting closer.

What do you expect her to do?

This

Fun fact: I was playing from zero to two other games while day 1 of that game was in progress. I usually have between 8-12 active games these days.

I still post tons occasionally but not in every game.

That was my second game on site, and my first game as town on MS. As well as playing very few games at the time, I was also still pacing my games more like the 24-hour game days I'd always played prior to joining MS. I was so burnt out by the end of day 1 that it was almost a relief to be dead that night.

My game has become way slower and way more deliberative since then.

[fferyllt]

Nacho, the degree to which you're defending me is freaking me out.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

@ ffery, okay. I understand that not all play as town/scum is similar so that has to be accounted for. I still need to meta more of you/Nacho/Penguin to sort the 3 of you out. What are all the possible scum pairs that you can think of and how likely to be believe each of them are?

I read as Toomai as town and prefer not to lynch him although I do want him to come and finish up all his reads before I can definitely either defend him to the death or go with his lynch.

[fferyllt]

Something else to keep in mind about the amnesiac game, then, is that Nacho had no idea who I was at the time or that we had played offsite games together.