Mini 1492: Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets GAME OVER

[fferyllt]

Also, re Penguin we have no completed games together.

[fferyllt]

Looking at one of Stubbs' meatier posts:

I'm having a hard time getting reads, but here's an attempt. Only slight scumreads on Jason for refusing to participate, Squilly for empty votes and Rach for having 2 reads. I'm having especially a lot of difficulty reading Amrun, so I just put him at null. LNG I think is just frustrated town.

Town

oriole

Fegelein

Leaning Town

ChannelDelibird

fferyllt

LnGrrrR

Null

Syryana

penguin_alien

Toomai

Amrun

Leaning Scum

JasonWazza

RachMarie

Squilly

Scum

N/A


P-Edit: Okay so Rach might be town too.

Colors are mine, FTR. Green is conf-town to me, blue is my current strong town reads.

I tend to think that he put one buddy in null and one in leaning town. That makes fferyllt and either Nacho or Toomai scum based on my current reads. I think RachMarie and MSG are town. I need to read the spate of posts that made Toomai such a strong town read for people, but if I concur I'd want to lynch from {fferyllt, Nacho}.

Stubbs' ISO is also rather sparse in interactions with both of those slots, but I might be working from confirmation bias.

Here's my big takeaway from Stubbs' flip. You even commented on it in #726, saying that at least I wasn't going after low-hanging fruit.

As of #741, you have Syryana as town for Day One play. And in #681, you said that if Syr was scum with Stubbs you thought he'd have bussed for town cred, not a change from your general town read on him.

Why did you need a Stubbs flip to have Amrun and Fegelin/F16 in your town pile?

I don't understand what you are asking about 681?

[penguin_alien]

I'm saying that your read on Syr's play didn't actually change with Stubbs' flip. You solidified your town read on him, that's all.

Amrun and F-16 were already town reads.

(We do have Narnia as a completed game...although we weren't alive at the same time, I did read your part in it in detail)

Mod, I need to go V/LA for 48 hours; time-intensive company is in town. Thanks!

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

Jason, why is Toomai a good vote? Talk to me about your suspects and who you think is town, possible scumteams etc.

[fferyllt]

I'm saying that your read on Syr's play didn't actually change with Stubbs' flip. You solidified your town read on him, that's all.

Amrun and F-16 were already town reads.

(We do have Narnia as a completed game...although we weren't alive at the same time, I did read your part in it in detail)

Mod, I need to go V/LA for 48 hours; time-intensive company is in town. Thanks!

Yeah, my first thoughts were that scum-Syr would probably not have moved his vote after putting it on Stubbs on day 1. I remember Nacho saying something in the Perpetual MYLO game to the effect that you can find scum-Syr via wagon analysis after a few scum-flips because he busses. But, that discounts Stubbs' role value. And it also discounts his lack of presence on day 2.

[fferyllt]

Still, on balance I lean town on what Syr put into the game. Nacho's kinda worrying me, but...Nacho. I haven't been getting strong day 1 town reads of him recently. And this isn't day 1.

[Nachomamma8]

Nacho, the degree to which you're defending me is freaking me out.

Why would it?

[fferyllt]

Nacho, the degree to which you're defending me is freaking me out.

Why would it?

Because you're not doing much else.

[Nachomamma8]

The only people who have done anything worth anything lately are you, me, and F-16. I'm not interested in talking things out with you at the moment, and instead am waiting for Toomai to finish reads and MSG replacement to arrive and do things. Why else are you paranoid of me?

[fferyllt]

The only people who have done anything worth anything lately are you, me, and F-16. I'm not interested in talking things out with you at the moment, and instead am waiting for Toomai to finish reads and MSG replacement to arrive and do things. Why else are you paranoid of me?

Lack of enough content to develop a read

is

what makes me paranoid. Always.

[Toomai]

Okay going to try and get this finished now.

Nachomamma8/Syryana:

• 163 (-1%) Vote with no reason. JW did have 2 votes at the time, but neither were recent.
  
• 165 (+1%) Explained previous vote with same reasons I had.
  
• 193 (+1%) Looks like town questioning.
  
• 298 (-3%) I said it in 304 - "catchup post" that followed the leading wagon with nothing else.
  
• 376 (+1%) It strikes me as unlikely that scum would admit to not knowing who they want to vote for.
  
• 437 (+1%) After having reread, these reads mostly match what my own (re-evaluated) reads are as of this post.
  
• No post since then has stood out to me as net towny or net scummy. If anything, most of Nacho's posts are swingy-null (as opposed to static-null).
  
• Result:
  0%

penguin_alien:

• 24 (+1%) It could still be RVS at this point; scum would probably want to continue that instead of asking this question.
  
• 190 (+1%) Similar question as 24, in a way.
  
• 538 (+1%) I agreed with the MSG sentiment.
  
• 549 (-1%) I liked this case on p_a.
  
• 566 (-1%) This one too, despite focusing on a post I previously agreed with.
  
• 719 (+1%) I like the line of thinking in here.
  
• 802 (+1%) I'm not sure I agree with it, but this thinking is also reasonable.
  
• Result:
  +3%

MSG/oriole:

• 23 (-1%) Okay it's RVS, but this didn't look RVS-y and lacked reasoning.
  
• 25 (+1%) Reasoning was then given here.
  
• 28 (-1%) ...and then it was pointed out here that he only answered half the question.
  
• 321 (+1%) Don't think scum would try to ruin a buddy's fakeclaim this early.
  
• 381 (-1%) Don't really like the "have my doubts" part. Gut I guess.
  
• 437 (-1%) Calls out 433. I didn't have a problem with it originally, but seeing it spelled out here changed my mind.
  
• 509 (-1%) Brought up the "how do you know you were blocked" question again, after it had died down somewhat. I don't see how that helps.
  
• 530 (-1%) This just bugs me, I don't know why. Unnecessary post at best.
  
• 596 (-1%) Stubbs didn't really ignore the questions in my opinion.
  
• 653 (+1%) I might have asked this question too.
  
• 742 (+3%) Towncasepost. I can't find anything significant wrong with it.
  
• Result:
  -1%

RachMarie:

• 47 (+1%) I agreed with this.
  
• 99 (-1%) This post is a fat lot of nothing. Okay, "been sick", but I think the post might have actually been better if "been sick, more later" was its only content, instead of filling it up with filler.
  
• 161 (+1%) Asked question about at-the-time baseless read.
  
• 264 (+1%) Poking of Marquis to actually do something.
  
• 355 (+1%) Flavour counter-evidence. Not sure why scum would bring it up at this point.
  
• 480 (-1%) I feel this is an "Obvious much?" post. I.e. filler.
  
• 603 (+1%) Setup speculation, but positively. Raising Stubbs as potential scum-JOAT made his claim look kind of worse in my opinion.
  
• 689 (-1%) This speculation however rubs me the wrong way. Not entirely sure why.
  
• Result:
  +2%

[Nachomamma8]

Who do you want to vote?

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

Okay, questions. I'll just quote since I'd rather the links show up as well.

Okay going to try and get this finished now.

Nachomamma8/Syryana:

• 163 (-1%) Vote with no reason. JW did have 2 votes at the time, but neither were recent.
  
• 165 (+1%) Explained previous vote with same reasons I had.
  
• 193 (+1%) Looks like town questioning.
  
• 298 (-3%) I said it in 304 - "catchup post" that followed the leading wagon with nothing else.
  
• 376 (+1%) It strikes me as unlikely that scum would admit to not knowing who they want to vote for.
  
• 437 (+1%) After having reread, these reads mostly match what my own (re-evaluated) reads are as of this post.
  
• No post since then has stood out to me as net towny or net scummy. If anything, most of Nacho's posts are swingy-null (as opposed to static-null).
  
• Result:
  0%

Why is a vote with no reasoning more likely to come from scum? Is this coming from your experience with scum voting for no reason?
How is 193 town questioning? What about the questions made them more likely to come from town?
How so? You seem to read Penguin as slight town, me as town, and if you are town, it should be obvious that he is wrong.

penguin_alien:

• 24 (+1%) It could still be RVS at this point; scum would probably want to continue that instead of asking this question.
  
• 190 (+1%) Similar question as 24, in a way.
  
• 538 (+1%) I agreed with the MSG sentiment.
  
• 549 (-1%) I liked this case on p_a.
  
• 566 (-1%) This one too, despite focusing on a post I previously agreed with.
  
• 719 (+1%) I like the line of thinking in here.
  
• 802 (+1%) I'm not sure I agree with it, but this thinking is also reasonable.
  
• Result:
  +3%

In your graph in post 739, you have Penguin Alien as the scummiest player in the game. In 757, you have Penguin as weak-scum (your only scumread). In 778, she changes to weak null-town. The only post she had made in between that change of reads is 771. So, this must have been the post that changed your read. Why not comment on it? Also, what about that post changed your read from a weak scumread to a weak townread?

MSG/oriole:

• 23 (-1%) Okay it's RVS, but this didn't look RVS-y and lacked reasoning.
  
• 25 (+1%) Reasoning was then given here.
  
• 28 (-1%) ...and then it was pointed out here that he only answered half the question.
  
• 321 (+1%) Don't think scum would try to ruin a buddy's fakeclaim this early.
  
• 381 (-1%) Don't really like the "have my doubts" part. Gut I guess.
  
• 437 (-1%) Calls out 433. I didn't have a problem with it originally, but seeing it spelled out here changed my mind.
  
• 509 (-1%) Brought up the "how do you know you were blocked" question again, after it had died down somewhat. I don't see how that helps.
  
• 530 (-1%) This just bugs me, I don't know why. Unnecessary post at best.
  
• 596 (-1%) Stubbs didn't really ignore the questions in my opinion.
  
• 653 (+1%) I might have asked this question too.
  
• 742 (+3%) Towncasepost. I can't find anything significant wrong with it.
  
• Result:
  -1%

Syryana called out MSG because he was voting on flavor i.e. he was voting based on which claims he bought and which claims he didn't buy. Why is this scummy? So far, you have two strong townreads and they are both based on claims to the point that you did no behavioral analysis. It follows that you consider claims to be of at least significance importance. Why do you agree with an argument claiming that voting based on flavor is bad?

RachMarie:

• 47 (+1%) I agreed with this.
  
• 99 (-1%) This post is a fat lot of nothing. Okay, "been sick", but I think the post might have actually been better if "been sick, more later" was its only content, instead of filling it up with filler.
  
• 161 (+1%) Asked question about at-the-time baseless read.
  
• 264 (+1%) Poking of Marquis to actually do something.
  
• 355 (+1%) Flavour counter-evidence. Not sure why scum would bring it up at this point.
  
• 480 (-1%) I feel this is an "Obvious much?" post. I.e. filler.
  
• 603 (+1%) Setup speculation, but positively. Raising Stubbs as potential scum-JOAT made his claim look kind of worse in my opinion.
  
• 689 (-1%) This speculation however rubs me the wrong way. Not entirely sure why.
  
• Result:
  +2%

I like the Rach-read. It makes sense.

[Nachomamma8]

If anything, most of Nacho's posts are swingy-null (as opposed to static-null).

Break them down, then. What are the your scumleans/townleans in my individual posts?

[RachMarie]

I am confused by all the math stuffs, what does it mean in terms of scum, null, town reads?

Nacho why so concerned with fery being a tad paranoid? I would think it would be understandable. You are a very good player who knows how to blend in well as scum, as well as being a very solid town player. Hence my comment about how I generally start out putting you in the town pile but take you with a grain of salt. I can understand her paranoia.

At this point though both of you are in my town pile.

I would like to hear from the replacement however.

I also feel pretty good about Jason as town.

[Toomai]

Why is a vote with no reasoning more likely to come from scum? Is this coming from your experience with scum voting for no reason?
How is 193 town questioning? What about the questions made them more likely to come from town?
How so? You seem to read Penguin as slight town, me as town, and if you are town, it should be obvious that he is wrong.

At best voting without a reason is anti-town. Note that whenever a reason was shortly provided I undid the negative change.
"Why isn't Jason interesting?" "Why should I vote Stubbs over Jason?" Stuff like that. Scum generally does not care as much when town is squablling with each other.
I don't understand what #3 here is referring to.

In your graph in post 739, you have Penguin Alien as the scummiest player in the game. In 757, you have Penguin as weak-scum (your only scumread). In 778, she changes to weak null-town. The only post she had made in between that change of reads is 771. So, this must have been the post that changed your read. Why not comment on it? Also, what about that post changed your read from a weak scumread to a weak townread?

Between 772 and 778 I did a total reread of the game, dropping (but archiving) all my previous reads. 771 did not change anything aside from convincing me I should reread.

Syryana called out MSG because he was voting on flavor i.e. he was voting based on which claims he bought and which claims he didn't buy. Why is this scummy? So far, you have two strong townreads and they are both based on claims to the point that you did no behavioral analysis. It follows that you consider claims to be of at least significance importance. Why do you agree with an argument claiming that voting based on flavor is bad?

It was still Day 1 at the time, and it's my feeing that only the totally ridiculous PR claims should be lynched D1. Stubbs's claim was only farfetched, not ridiculous, and there were arguments about power vs. flavour that made it less appealing to poke.

If anything, most of Nacho's posts are swingy-null (as opposed to static-null).

Break them down, then. What are the your scumleans/townleans in my individual posts?

I'll see if I can try this later.

I am confused by all the math stuffs, what does it mean in terms of scum, null, town reads?

The general gist is: Positive numbers are town, negative numbers are scum, numbers near 0 (say within 1 or maybe 2) are null. But can also be interpreted relatively; if I read everyone as positive (town), whoever's the least positive would be scum. Using "%" as a unit is kind of arbitrary.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

I don't understand what #3 here is referring to.

You said that after having re-read, Syryana's reads mostly match your own. However, Syryana was suspecting me, you, and Penguin. You seem to read Penguin as slight town, me as town, and if you are town, it should be obvious that he is wrong. How did they match your reads?

It was still Day 1 at the time, and it's my feeling that only the totally ridiculous PR claims should be lynched D1. Stubbs's claim was only farfetched, not ridiculous, and there were arguments about power vs. flavor that made it less appealing to poke.

Okay, this makes sense but I have another question:

You had no problem voting Jason and Marquis D1. Why didn't you want to vote for Stubbs until "he could reply to all this?"

[fferyllt]

I am confused by all the math stuffs, what does it mean in terms of scum, null, town reads?

Nacho why so concerned with fery being a tad paranoid? I would think it would be understandable. You are a very good player who knows how to blend in well as scum, as well as being a very solid town player. Hence my comment about how I generally start out putting you in the town pile but take you with a grain of salt. I can understand her paranoia.

At this point though both of you are in my town pile.

I would like to hear from the replacement however.

I also feel pretty good about Jason as town.

Who do you have as scum?

[Nachomamma8]

Nacho why so concerned with fery being a tad paranoid? I would think it would be understandable. You are a very good player who knows how to blend in well as scum, as well as being a very solid town player. Hence my comment about how I generally start out putting you in the town pile but take you with a grain of salt. I can understand her paranoia.

I was mostly just trying to see where it was coming from.

[RachMarie]

I am wondering about the MSG who replaced Oriole IIRC Which is why I want to hear from the replacement. It was the top town read for the other scum. And since by process of elimination he was clearly not bussing

Leaning Scum
JasonWazza Town
RachMarie I know I am Town
Squilly Flipped Town confirmed.

Scum
N/A No names at all here.

That means his scum bud would be in either the town or null sections

Town
oriole (MSG) Probably scum
Fegelein (Falcon) leaning town read for me though I have seen a Mafia fruit vendor before the fact there was a kill makes me think town.

Leaning Town
ChannelDelibird Flipped Conf town
fferyllt probably town
LnGrrrR Flilled Conf town

Null
Syryana (Nacho) meh probably town though keeping an eye on him as always
penguin_alien probably town
Toomai Need to look at his ISO
Amrun weak town read.


I hope that makes it clearer

[RachMarie]

EBWOP Flipped not Flilled

[Nachomamma8]

you're thinking msg/toomai, then?

[penguin_alien]

Rach, do you think Stubbs would put a buddy in the straight-up town pile?

[RachMarie]

yes after all he had no scum pile and his leaning scum pile is townies. Not everyone busses.

[Toomai]

Not gonna lie I've currently lost most interest in this game, pending that replacement. If it wasn't MSG I would be voting him just for being my bottomest read with 5-ish days in the deadline.