Big Brother: HoH Mafia (We have a winner at last)

[BBmolla]

Shower thoughts.

If Minion's claim is true, I see only two possible balanced possibilities:

1. Scum are informed about this cop and given 3 day vigs. One was expended on RBD/Jake because someone on the scumteam was afraid of them and felt it worth getting rid of them before they scumread that person. The other two were for the cop targets.

2. It's a scum ability meant to make the scum player seem town.

[Imperium]

Imperium. All I am asking is for one night to prove my power.

And all I'm asking for you to defend yourself and not try to coast on a claim. Right now, every piece of evidence in game points to you being scum and I don't really give a shit if you can confirm your role or not if you can't even do that?

I wanted to do a re-read and update them so held out on them.

Weird.

Need to re-read. Will get to this when I post my analysis.

I don't need that much rereading; I ask you that question because Rach's Desperado push was a bit weaker than her Minions push, which I'm sure you've read by now.

I think it unlikely that scum would fake-claim it. Even if they did, we could still let him confirm someone and then lynch him. That way, in the case that he is town, we would have a confirmed townie.

I don't think that there's a reason why we should let him confirm it if there's nothing suggesting that the claim is true. Why do you disagree?

I think Voided can come up with some pretty non-clean flips like mistrusted vanilla townie (aka miller) so I am not sold on that.

In my mind, a clean flip is a role that can be explained with a standard rolename (miller, encryptor). An unclean flip is a role that can't be (think most Vi roles, miller vigilante). Voided's "mistrusted townie" was nothing more than a namechange; it was still a miller.

But it is also likely that the mafia have a few more kills and they are saving the kills for later.

How many more kills? Why haven't they shot me yet?

As for the all vanilla theory, I think I remember someone claiming something about wagon distribution (who was on what wagons), but I don't have the time or the will to look for it right now.

BBMolla, who later said that he thought that it was an all-vanilla setup.

Nacho have Minions use his ability on me and you so we can lynch everyone but us and autowin.

I'll have him use his ability on the person we don't lynch.

[Bulbazak]

As for the all vanilla theory, I think I remember someone claiming something about wagon distribution (who was on what wagons), but I don't have the time or the will to look for it right now.

BBMolla, who later said that he thought that it was an all-vanilla setup.

I was going to ask him why he hadn't used the ability yet.

[Imperium]

Can you link the games where you saw the Minions claiming PRs to avoid being lynched?

He was run up Day 1, claimed one-shot vigilante. I would rather not link the game since off-site and minions is an anonymous hydra; all you need to know is that claiming confirmable roles as scum is something that he does often.

1. Scum are informed about this cop and given 3 day vigs. One was expended on RBD/Jake because someone on the scumteam was afraid of them and felt it worth getting rid of them before they scumread that person. The other two were for the cop targets.

When a role is so powerful that scumteam need to be informed of it AND given three daykills to take care of it, the role probably isn't in the game. Not to mention that there's no particular reason to put two shot cop vs three daykills unless you're forcing scum to kill specific innocents, which seems stupid. I also have trouble believing scum bussed Gnomeo in a (we need two mislynches to win) scenario, so there's also that.

[Imperium]

Ah, my mistake; didn't notice Generic slipped in thread already.

Generic-scum claims vig.

[BBmolla]

I agree, it just baffles me that they'd claim it for nothing and then... what, claim roleblocked?

Like what the shit?

[Voidedmafia]

Votecount 3.1:

Titus - Bulbazak
Imperium - Titus, RachMarie, minions, Toogeloo (L-2)
BBmolla - Desp, Toasty

Not Voting - BBmolla, f-16, keyblade, Imperium

With 11 alive it takes 6 to elect an HoH. Currently Imperium will be nominated as the next HoH, as they have the most votes.

Deadline is in (expired on 2013-10-02 12:06:45) or by 11:05 AM on October 2nd, 2013.

Keybladewielder is always V/LA Wednesday through Saturday.

[Imperium]

I voted IceGuy as well. I initially was going to put my vote down for Desperado, but changed my mind in the eleventh hour because Desperado's activity was at least better and worth keeping one more day just to see if he brought something else, where as IceGuy wasn't participating at all making it impossible to get a read om him beyond what was already established. Both nominees were good choices, and as a consolation we got rid of a liability, and I don't really regret changing my vote.


The vote as close as it is affirms to me that Desperado is scum though.

Okay, so I was starting to get a little bit paranoid about my town read on toogeloo, though nacho isn't at all, but this really looks like a town tell.

Iceguy originally flipped town, so it makes total sense that someone who voted for the guy who flipped town would explain it. Would he explain it this way if his partner flipped town? Would you think of doing this?

I think it's more likely that he's town who thought that he helped vote out town over scum.

[Imperium]

The fact that there is a liar makes it more likely that the votes were split, and it's more likely that the scum put two votes on Gnomeo and 1 vote on you if anything.

^This is Toog slipping that scum had 3 votes N1 and not 2 even though he was pushing the "Desp and Gnomeo are both scum!" narrative all day.

except Toogeloo, just like you, thought all of you guys had votes that night. If you look back to when I was saying that you didn't have a vote when you were saying you did, he quoted part of the first rules that made it look like you all had votes. I was the one who commented on that and then quoted part of the rules that showed that you didn't.

[Imperium]

IceGuy - (Molla, Toogeloo, F-16, Minions, Toast)
Desperado - (Rach, Titus, Bulbazak)

quoting other me to look at in a few.

[Imperium]

A quick note for Tammy regarding meta: I felt that you would suspect me based on meta for several reasons. First, I am lazy as scum but put a ton of effort into my town games in general. Second, I know you think of Empire's meta-case on me as flawless and try to go by it to determine my affiliation as evidenced by your read on me in Swagtown. I don't think you realize that Empire's case was not comprehensive enough to cover for how I play as scum. It is a little bit simplistic because he assumes I never tunnel players as town and I am always uncertain where I am usually a lot more certain as scum. The fact that he is wrong is proven when he believes that I am scum in Rarefaction II in the dead thread where he was spectating. I did spend an inordinate amount of time tunneling.

In this game, I've mostly been tunneling Bulbazak for a large portion of the later game. When you claimed that I was scum, I sort of had a feeling that I knew where you were coming from. But I think you should look at games we've played together instead of relying on cases made by other players. (If you already have, great). I can explain the town motivation behind all of my posting on a meta-basis if you want but first I need to know what it is that you feel off about my posts which is why I was asking you to explain your suspicions.

The tunneling issue is not close to an issue I'm having. I just went and read the dead qt of the game you're talking about, and I'm not seeing where empire was mistakenly reading you as scum. He was arguing that your meta case on Tierce was 10000% off, but he didn't argue for you being scum. And I think that the argument against his case is a bit simplistic. I know that he doesn't think you don't tunnel as town, because when we were all playing in Black Flag, and I was worried about you guys and you not posting, he linked me to a game in which you were playing where you were trying to get your scum read lynched, by tunneling quite hard, near deadline as a reason for why you weren't posting in our game.

Also, while I do take empire's case into consideration, I'm not completely beholden to anything. So, let's just say even if empire was in the dead qt arguing for you being scum in that game, I was arguing for you being pretty strong town, and yes, in empire's normal I read empire's case against you to help me sort out the read on you, I still read you as town pretty early on.

But here is part of my problem. In this reads post, you mention doing "tons of meta" on Rachmarie and conclude that this is how she behaves as town. But you've been pushing bulbazack as scum but you haven't done that research. You really haven't been that inquisitive towards the people that you are suspecting, nor are you doing the research that I associate with you. You are playing against the empire scum case in that you are displaying a wilingness to rethink your reads, which I really like, but your meta reads tend to be a bit more in depth, and you tend to be a bit more inquisitive to the people you suspect, and you're not really doing any of this.

[Imperium]

weird - that post above should be addressed to falcon.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

I am not going to do meta-research on every single player in the game every game. It is too time consuming. Sometimes I do it, sometimes not. For example, I didn't research Trevor's meta or Parama's meta much at all before tunneling hard on them for nearly the entire first half of the day in Rarefaction II. I only did Tierce's. In Swagtown, I said I'd do MattP's meta research but the only person out of all the players in the game that I actually made a detailed explanation for was implosion. I can't and likely won't meta every player in this game. I just don't have the time to do it and asking for it is an quite unrealistic. I will meta-read

some

players though.

I do tend to be more inquisitive and I haven't done that as much. I've been thinking about why and I guess it is because the game dynamics this game haven't encouraged that trait in me as much. It doesn't seem to matter whether or not I sort people out because at the end of the day you are going to nominate who you want and for the most part, you have been right. I only needed to sort out which of the two nominated players were likely scum because that is where I make my vote count. It is different from a normal game since the focus rests more on convincing the HoH to actually nominate my scumreads as opposed to convincing the rest of the town to vote for them. Also, I haven't fully caught up with this game either. There were plenty of pages in the middle that I missed and will catch up tonight or tomorrow.

For reference: Empire said "I actually thought you were scum at first until some time after the IC claim and your case with all the graphs and shit" in post 12.

[Imperium]

Ok, bored now of the shit being flung around.

Two shot cop. When the HoH chooses two nominees, we get to investigate one of them and the result is sent to the HoH via the mod.

Suck on it punks.

~ doug

so, for two days in a row desperado was put up. You didn't vote him either day, but you didn't think it would be valuable to investigate him after he'd been put up twice and you didn't vote him?

what were you waiting for?

[RachMarie]

Yeah that is a great point. Had I cop powers you bet your sweet bippy I would have investigated Des

[Imperium]

Okay so I've been thinking about some things. Voided ran the nightless game not too long ago in which scum had nothing - no kill, no day talk, no communication past night zero, nothing. It does make sense that he would spice up this game a little. So the day one day kill makes sense, but they probably have another. They have to have another if minions is telling the truth about their role.

But, there was a way to basically break the nightless game right? So, that should be the same here, right? If we can get enough town reads to take us through any kills the scum team might have we should still be able to win this without a problem (let's hope!).

Anyway, so town reads that I feel pretty confident about: bbmolla, toogeloo (i have bits of paranoia here or there but don't think it amounts to anything), kbw (I guess, I'll read that game titus left if I can this weekend), titus, and probably desperado.

need to talk to nacho.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

Can you explain your townread on Toogeloo?

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

Titus, RBD tends to be like that, and he was the one speaking. They're town.

Have you played with RBD before? What about their posts made you believe that they are town?

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

are you trying to discount meta?

I will discount meta for you plenty. 99% off all meta. Free wifom included for all those who are self-aware and actualized. Call now. Don't delay.

Yet your entire case on KBW is based on meta. Why discount it? Also, can you explain in detail what you think of the cop claim?

[ToastyToast]

I agree, it just baffles me that they'd claim it for nothing and then... what, claim roleblocked?

Like what the shit?

Maybe it was a given fake-claim? In my experience scum will generally use them regardless, because they are supposed to be guaranteed safe.

[Minions]

For two night phases one of us had a strong town read on desp. So we saw no need to use one shot up. Given the scum reads on us I was fairly confident we weren't likely to be earmarked for a scum kill and since the only death was on a HoH nominee we are even LESS likely to be a target.

But your trying to link a false claim of vig against a cop claim that we don't get the result of and the mod will hand to imperium if he is HoH... Someone explain to me how lying about that is something we can get out of?

[Titus]

Prod dodge

[Titus]

Dumb question, why would scum have a cop if we are all vts?

Should we treat eviction vote time as night?

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

Titus, can you explain why you made meta your entire reason for suspecting KBW if you generally discount it?

[Desperado]

Dumb question, why would scum have a cop if we are all vts?

Should we treat eviction vote time as night?

It could be a false lead. There's no guarantee we can even trust the report that the HoH gets. Maybe Minions is scum who frames one of the two nominees: if used properly it allows scum to mislynch two consecutive townies.

F-16, you got that stuff going up today or tomorrow?