...or you can ask me?
Although I didn't actually get my vote back on Bulbazak before nightfall, it's true that if I'd favored Nacho's lynch over Bulbazak's, I think my vote there would have made it so.
I felt like Nacho wasn't engaging the same way most of the rest of the town was. His reaction to my vote tipped his hand and made him try to mislynch me earlier than he'd obviously planned. Suddenly with half an hour before deadline he wants to talk about my theories? Sure, when he's afraid I might not help him lynch red scum. Especially his comment here:
He had no reason to think for certain we were at one red scum and one blue scum rather than 2:1. (Heck, we're still not guaranteed that such is the case if red scum no-killed to support the uneven scum team numbers theory. But if that's the case we're screwed anyways, so we might as well assume we're down to one blue scum.) Yet he suddenly wants to wagon me? That's a blue scum-last-man-standing attitude who'd rather see anyone but himself swing.
Let's think about what the red team did after CTD's lynch. That was the night where ThAd killed Cephrir, plus Baezu and ThAd died. Bulbazak obviously didn't block ThAd that night. Why not? With the level of town power revealed at that point, red scum had to be pretty confident that all the town PRs were either revealed or dead. Given that their biggest night threat was being killed, either by the vig or a remaining blue scum (and even if there were only the three of them that flipped, they had to assume that blue being Ninja-goon-goon didn't balance against Doc-Tracker-RB), their roleblocker should have been cutting off one of these threats. Even if they couldn't kill and PR while there was more than one alive, the roleblocker was more use than the tracker. Bulbazak had me as his top blue scum suspect at the end of Day Five here:
In post 5785, Bulbazak wrote:2 teams of 4:
Blue - CTD and PA. She appeared to soft defend Thez on d2, and that stuck out for me at the time and made me think that she could possibly be blue. The only other thing that sticks out scum-wise for me is BS's crappy Nacho case d1, which seemed awfully stretched to me. PA has given me more of a town vibe recently, though, so I may be way off here. Outside chance that HD might be blue scum for similar, albeit more subtle, reasons.
Why wouldn't he block me that night? Answer: he probably did, and three kills went through, surprise, surprise. He blocked someone else the next night and saw only one kill. But he had to spin me as scum because I wouldn't drop the issue of him being protected from ThAd's vig shot. Seeing as I had been all over Seanald he knew he couldn't paint me red, so he went with blue based on the fact that I didn't think thezmon221 would be foolish enough to use a fake role claim his scum team had been caught using in a recent game with a significant overlap in player base. Which, yeah, I expect a certain level of competency from people around here. Waving a universal back-up claim in front of Slandaar as scum in that situation doesn't match up.
So we have Bulbazak keeping me in his pocket as a mislynch. Funny, Nacho's doing the same thing. I come in Day One into a slot Nacho's reading as scum, and he figures out I'm town pronto. We go all the way to Day Six, and only then does Nacho even start to 'waver' on that read, saying:
In post 5878, Nachomamma8 wrote:i waffle on pa and ak because if they are scum this is the best damn scumplay i've seem from them. i would LOVE to see what happens after we lynch human destroyer because no one is even marginally reading him as town but for some reason they still don't want to lynch them.
This doesn't track. He's setting up for a mislynch because he knows HD isn't going to flip blue. And then by Day Seven he's merrily going along with his scum read Bulbazak's read on me. Can't imagine where the motivation is for that.
Having established that Nacho's raring to mislynch me, having shepherded me along since I replaced in, let's look at why he's blue. (I can explain why I'm not blue, but really, if you consider my play here, unless you really think I'd sit around arguing with a teammate over a poor faked claim, I'd say it's pretty clear)
Here as Desperado pointed out, CTD puts this whole list of people:
-Nachomamma8
-Desperado
-Om the Destroyer
-Thor
-ActionDan
-fuzzy
as almost guaranteed town. Odds that he's try to slip a scum buddy in there? Pretty good.
Actually, just go check out Desperado's post; he runs down lists from Red Ryu, thezmon221, and CTD. All of them put Nacho in places where scum would put a buddy. Red Ryu lists him as a read without actually assigning him an alignment, thez has him as his only legit scum read to start, then moves him up the list as he nears being lynched, CTD distances in his later reads.
Meanwhile, quick-reading Nacho's ISO starting from the beginning of Day One has him in a weird synergy with CTD. CTD's letting himself be persuaded of Nacho's scumminess, and Nacho is just going with the flow, not pushing back like I'd expect. Example:
In post 1642, Nachomamma8 wrote:It surprises me that you take so much issue with me voting Desperado above DLG. I'm sorting Desperado out because I don't think he's DLG's scumbuddy and he is the stronger read. It doesn't mean that I'm unwilling to compromise; that's a misrep. Why do you take so much issue with it?
Then he's mostly not engaged with flipped blue scum. Since two were dead by the end of Day Two, there's not as much anyways, but he really doesn't engage with CTD after the show of the first day. He gets into it a bit WRT Rena, who he strongly pushes. Rena was scummy and suspect, but places like this:
In post 5181, Nachomamma8 wrote: In post 5176, CrashTextDummie wrote:Nacho suggests that ThAd should be lynched if he keeps getting blocked, but his entire point here is that ThAd was blocked and Rena was not, so there should be no reason to assume that he won't be blocked in the future (unless Rena flips roleblocker herself). If we lynch Rena and she flips town, we actually make it easier for scum to block ThAd because they have one PR less to juggle. Nacho also suggests that ThAd should be lynched if Rena flips town, which is convenient as fuck if my suspicions are true that scum blocked Rena last night.
Any power role should be lynched if they "keep getting blocked". You understand the reasoning for that, don't you? I also believe that Rena and ThAd didn't just happen to both get blocked last night because that doesn't make any sense at all; you can say "oh, maybe KK protected Bulbazak or mafia doc protected Bulbazak" but I believe that those situations are unlikely; I don't think that KK would target Rena or Bulbazak or ThAd last night, and I find it unlikely that there is an additional blocking role to one scum roleblocker, and I don't find it likely that scumdoc would be targetting bulbazak over their own buddies (since I find it highly unlikely bulbazak is scum) when there is a vig and an opposing scumteam to worry about.
read as him and CTD establishing themselves on opposite sides of the argument. And this whole time they're arguing over Bulbazak in circles.
When it comes to actually lynching CTD, here's how he started that day:
His vote's then on him for most of the day. When Nacho does actually opt to lynch CTD it's off set-up spec. Set-up spec that gives him room to push ThAd if ThAd survives, since he knows CTD won't flip roleblocker.
This actually makes me think Nacho wouldn't have NK'd ThAd, which segues into the NK analysis:
Full list of kills, colors added when we know who likely shot them. PV, if any of these were unclaimed ThAd vig shots from early in the game that change the results, speak up:
Syryana (Friendly Neighbor)
Red Ryu (Blue Mafia Ninja)
shot Night One.
EddieFenix (Town Rolecop)
Thor665 (Vanilla Townie)
shot Night Two.
Kublai Khan (Town Jailkeeper) ArcAngel9 (Vanilla Townie) shot Night Three.
Nero Cain (Vanilla Townie)
Rena (Haylen) (Town Watcher)
shot Night Four.
Cephrir, Red Mafia Tracker, shot Night Five.
(vig shot)
Baezu (Vanilla Townie)
ThAdmiral (3-shot Vigilante)
shot Night Five.
Desperado (Vanilla Neighbor) shot Night Six.
MS Marangal (Vanilla Townie) shot Night Seven.
Nights 2-5 are murky. But I'd guess Nacho's team shot Thor. Night Three, hard to say; if both teams thought the Watcher was legit, they'd have avoided high profile targets. My money's on Nacho's team shooting AA9, as she was a strong town read, although if they were setting up AK, they could have shot KK here too. I'd guess red actually shot Nero, since if Bulbazak wasn't lynched after the doc protect saved him under such dubious circumstances, they probably thought he was good to go and killing off his detractor was worth the risk. That lines up with Nacho failing to get Rena lynched and resorting to NKing her. ThAd seemed to have a bead on red scum with shooting at Bulbazak, which makes him more likely to be a red kill than blue. That has Nacho getting rid of Bacde, someone he was 'strongly townreading' for quite some time and would have trouble reversing on at XyLo.
I'm pretty sure Nacho is the blue scum. Given that if there was a red scum they were probably better off shooting last night to be at 1:1:1 or 2:1 today, I think it's simple MyLo.
As such, I'm very confident that PV is town; I doubt blue scum got 1-2 PRs and had two members in neighborhoods versus a red team of three PRs and one neighborhood member.
ffullisade, I have a general sense of fferyllt and a better one of pirate mollie; I'd be surprised if you were blue scum. Going through Nacho's game took a while here, and I want to do that for your various hydra incarnations here before I vote (when it's not after 2 AM my time), but I tend to think that Nacho brought me as the mislynch bait and you as the buddy, jettisoning AK/MM and going all-in on me.
