Mini 1492: Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets GAME OVER

[Nexus]

JacobSavage replaces MSG. Deadline is extended until Sunday 6th October 2013, at 10pm BST. Also mass prod going out (ignore it if you've posted recently

[JacobSavage]

Hi, Jason you scum?
If your not would you mind condensing the main points over the last few days?
Going to read

[fferyllt]

Hi JacobSavage. Jason's all but conftown.

What have you come up with?

[JasonWazza]

Why did you ask if i was scum out of the entire player list? >.>

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

Nacho, how sure are you about Toomai being scum?

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

I am going to post a few quick scenarios. More detailed analysis will have to wait till the weekend. I discount Amrun, Jason, Rach, and JacobSavage being scum. I gave extensive reasoning for it and am convinced they are all town. Toomai is a little more difficult to determine. Nacho/ffery/Penguin are almost unreadable. I won't completely discount any of them being scum. That leaves us with 6 scenarios:

1) ffery/Penguin

- This is the least likely. If you are scum together, then mad props to both of you. I discount this pairing.

2) Nacho/Penguin

- Possible. Nacho sees Penguin in trouble and has her as a top scumread bussing her. Then he kills Jason or me tonight. Amrun helps him mislynch Toomai after which he kills the other of me/Jason. That leaves him with ffery, Jacob, Rach, and Amrun. Jacob mislynch is easy. Perhaps he kills ffery and gets Rach or Amrun to vote each other? Alternatively, he kills Amrun instead of me and gets me (and possibly MSG who was in the slot at that time) to vote ffery to lynch her. Then kills Amrun and gets Rach to vote MSG/Jacob.

3) Toomai/Penguin

- Possible. If this is the case, they pretty much already lost. They can't go for any of the obvtown players (me, Amrun, Jason, Rach). Their only choice is to go for the less obviously town but more difficult to lynch players (ffery, Nacho) or to go for the only relatively easy mislynch (MSG/Jacob). They have both certainly expressed suspicion of MSG. I find MSG suspicion unjustified considering his ffery-trajectory only makes sense as town.

4) ffery/Toomai

- Not very likely. ffery sees Toomai getting heat and starts looking for reasons to suspect him? It is somewhat of a stretch. Besides, I can't see ffery-scum with Nacho-town. Nacho is way too sure about his ffery-read so either he is town and right, scum and buddying town-ffery, or scum and protecting his partner. I am definitely using burden of proficiency on Nacho and I think it is justified considering what I learned of his and ffery's background. On the other hand, I can see Nacho fooling ffery but I can't see it happening the other way around.

5) Nacho/Toomai

- Possible. Nacho wants Penguin lynch but sees Amrun deciding to go for Toomai. He decides that a bus is the best shot at towncred. After all, there are PRs for the mafia to kill and a good player like Nacho reaching 3P LYLO won't raise too many eyebrows in this situation. After the Toomai bus, possibly kill Jason. Use my help to mislynch Penguin, and then kill me. That leaves him with ffery, Amrun, Rach, and MSG/Jacob. Amrun and Rach help him kill MSG, then he kills Amrun/ffery and convinces Rach to vote the other. It is not optimal but it would be his best shot.

6) Nacho/ffery

- Possible and likely. This is the pairing that I most fear. Their gameplan would be fairly straightforward. Lynch Toomai now. Kill Jason. Mislynch Penguin, then kill me. That leaves them at 5P LYLO with Amrun, MSG/Jacob, and Rach. Getting one of Amrun/Rach to vote MSG slot would be a cakewalk. Although, the paranoia would be high and they would have to sell someone as being in a scumteam with Jacob.

---

The only person who closed off the MSG/Jacob as scum option is ffery. Nacho/Penguin/Toomai are all going for MSG. That and the fact that there is no way that ffery is scum with Nacho town means ffery is a bad choice of lynch.

Any of the other 3 (Nacho/Penguin/Toomai) are fair game. I'll get to the three of them this weekend.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

I need to update this since there is no way Nacho can vote ffery before LYLO. So, the scumplan would actually be like this:

2) Nacho/Penguin (updated)

- Possible. Nacho sees Penguin in trouble and has her as a top scumread. Then he does a bait and switch and mislynches Toomai. He kills Jason tonight. Then busses Penguin hard and kills me. That leaves him with ffery, Jacob, Rach, and Amrun. Jacob mislynch is easy. Kills ffery and gets Rach or Amrun to vote each other.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

For the sake of completeness, I'll include MSG/Jacob. This is a bit simplistic but I am of the opinion that among players that are intimately familiar with each other, the better player usually doesn't read the other incorrectly - at least not to the extent as shown here. So:

1) ffery/MSG (Jacob)

- Unlikely as ffery-scum, Nacho-town doesn't make sense.

2) Nacho/MSG (Jacob)

- Unlikely as ffery wouldn't have such a strong townread on MSG.

3) Penguin/MSG (Jacob)

- Same as (2)

4) Toomai/MSG (Jacob)

- Same as (2)

@ ffery, how sure are you that MSG/Jacob is town?

These combined with my independent townread on MSG leads me to discount all three pairings. Rach, Penguin, Nacho and everyone else that suspects MSG/Jacob: who do you think he is paired up with? I find 3 and 4 rather unlikely which is what you seem to be getting at. The assumption is that he got ffery who has played plenty of games with him completely fooled while he is scum. I don't find this likely. It is possible - no one is infallible - but not probable.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

I want to think this through without the BOPing anyone as well since anyone can be fooled.

I have my reasoning for MSG/Jacob that I feel confident about regardless of anybody else's read on him.

That just leaves ffery/Toomai scumteam with Nacho as town. I don't really see an endgame there. ffery starts moving towards a Toomai bus. Once that is done, kill Jason and lynch Penguin. Once that is done, kill me and lynch MSG. Then kill Nacho and get one of Rach/Amrun to vote each other? There are one problem there. She can't lynch MSG without backpedaling really hard. Nacho's presence would be a difficult to deal with.

[Amrun]

oh thank goodness I'm not replaced. had a bit of craziness.

[Amrun]

I am inclined to vote Toomai.

[Amrun]

We need a flip. We're going around in circles.

VOTE: Toomai

[RachMarie]

WB Amrun what do you think of the Oriole/MSG/Jacob slot?

[Amrun]

I believe that is one of the few slots in my "lynch with fire and win the game" list.

[Nachomamma8]

you're thinking msg/toomai, then?

^^Rach.

Not gonna lie I've currently lost most interest in this game, pending that replacement. If it wasn't MSG I would be voting him just for being my bottomest read with 5-ish days in the deadline.

I don't actually understand why you're voting him right now.

Nacho, how sure are you about Toomai being scum?

He's a strong scumread at this point.

[fferyllt]

I am going to post a few quick scenarios. More detailed analysis will have to wait till the weekend. I discount Amrun, Jason, Rach, and JacobSavage being scum. I gave extensive reasoning for it and am convinced they are all town. Toomai is a little more difficult to determine. Nacho/ffery/Penguin are almost unreadable. I won't completely discount any of them being scum. That leaves us with 6 scenarios:

1) ffery/Penguin

- This is the least likely. If you are scum together, then mad props to both of you. I discount this pairing.

meh.

2) Nacho/Penguin

- Possible. Nacho sees Penguin in trouble and has her as a top scumread bussing her. Then he kills Jason or me tonight. Amrun helps him mislynch Toomai after which he kills the other of me/Jason. That leaves him with ffery, Jacob, Rach, and Amrun. Jacob mislynch is easy. Perhaps he kills ffery and gets Rach or Amrun to vote each other? Alternatively, he kills Amrun instead of me and gets me (and possibly MSG who was in the slot at that time) to vote ffery to lynch her. Then kills Amrun and gets Rach to vote MSG/Jacob.

I think Nacho could get me lynched pretty easily if he set his mind to it. But he has always NKed me when he been scum in our games.

3) Toomai/Penguin

- Possible. If this is the case, they pretty much already lost. They can't go for any of the obvtown players (me, Amrun, Jason, Rach). Their only choice is to go for the less obviously town but more difficult to lynch players (ffery, Nacho) or to go for the only relatively easy mislynch (MSG/Jacob). They have both certainly expressed suspicion of MSG. I find MSG suspicion unjustified considering his ffery-trajectory only makes sense as town.

I don't think MSG/Jacob will be an easy lynch, at least while I'm alive. I could be wrong about the slot. If so, I'm adamantly wrong and it will take some doing to convince me of it.

4) ffery/Toomai

- Not very likely. ffery sees Toomai getting heat and starts looking for reasons to suspect him? It is somewhat of a stretch. Besides, I can't see ffery-scum with Nacho-town. Nacho is way too sure about his ffery-read so either he is town and right, scum and buddying town-ffery, or scum and protecting his partner. I am definitely using burden of proficiency on Nacho and I think it is justified considering what I learned of his and ffery's background. On the other hand, I can see Nacho fooling ffery but I can't see it happening the other way around.

I doubt that scum-me would see bussing as a good strategy.

5) Nacho/Toomai

- Possible. Nacho wants Penguin lynch but sees Amrun deciding to go for Toomai. He decides that a bus is the best shot at towncred. After all, there are PRs for the mafia to kill and a good player like Nacho reaching 3P LYLO won't raise too many eyebrows in this situation. After the Toomai bus, possibly kill Jason. Use my help to mislynch Penguin, and then kill me. That leaves him with ffery, Amrun, Rach, and MSG/Jacob. Amrun and Rach help him kill MSG, then he kills Amrun/ffery and convinces Rach to vote the other. It is not optimal but it would be his best shot.

Maybe. I haven't seen that Nacho busses as a first-line strategy and it would surprise me if he did that here. Have you seen him do this in other games?

6) Nacho/ffery

- Possible and likely. This is the pairing that I most fear. Their gameplan would be fairly straightforward. Lynch Toomai now. Kill Jason. Mislynch Penguin, then kill me. That leaves them at 5P LYLO with Amrun, MSG/Jacob, and Rach. Getting one of Amrun/Rach to vote MSG slot would be a cakewalk. Although, the paranoia would be high and they would have to sell someone as being in a scumteam with Jacob.

Nacho and I have never been scum together. I don't know how we'd approach a game but I would probably leave strategy to him. What I've seen from playing against him when he's scum is that he thinks a lot like you're thinking from the opposite perspective here. Who is hard to lynch and dangerous. Who is hard to lynch and easier to delude. Who is easier to lynch and how to set them up as the game progresses.

---

The only person who closed off the MSG/Jacob as scum option is ffery. Nacho/Penguin/Toomai are all going for MSG. That and the fact that there is no way that ffery is scum with Nacho town means ffery is a bad choice of lynch.

I don't really follow this. Why am I a bad choice of lynch?

Any of the other 3 (Nacho/Penguin/Toomai) are fair game. I'll get to the three of them this weekend.

Yeah, agree with this.

Your post points up one of my weaknesses as town. Although I put thought into this kind of strategy as scum, as town I focus on read refinement and don't think very far ahead at all in terms of what strategies scum as a team may be working. I should work on this.

[fferyllt]

@ ffery, how sure are you that MSG/Jacob is town?

Pretty damn sure. I'm finding that most players (of the handful at MS who have played with me extensively elsewhere) are pretty suspicious of my play style at MS on first encounter. In some cases, even after they have played a game or two with me here, they're still paranoid about my tendencies toward slow-ish starts and dithering.

[penguin_alien]

Amrun, why do you think Toomai is the most useful flip right now? What's your take on F-16's breakdown?

Based on F-16's analysis, I tend to agree that fferyllt isn't a good lynch. I'm very interested to hear JacobSavage's thoughts on the game, given my most recent read on MSG.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

3)

Toomai/Penguin

I don't think MSG/Jacob will be an easy lynch, at least while I'm alive. I could be wrong about the slot. If so, I'm adamantly wrong and it will take some doing to convince me of it.

But this is the pairing you are pushing as the most likely one, isn't it? I guess it is possible. Penguin isn't playing to her town OR scum meta and Toomai has been inactive. Perhaps, they realized they were trapped - their only easy mislynch being MSG but if you adamantly oppose it, that becomes hard as well.

5) Nacho/Toomai

Maybe. I haven't seen that Nacho busses as a first-line strategy and it would surprise me if he did that here. Have you seen him do this in other games?

Based on your Nacho-scum model (surely you have one, don't you?), what would he do as scum if he replaced into a scum slot with Toomai as his buddy and Toomai is under imminent threat of being lynched? Would he bus? Would he try to divert the lynch? If so, who would he try to divert it to?

The only person who closed off the MSG/Jacob as scum option is ffery. Nacho/Penguin/Toomai are all going for MSG. That and the fact that there is no way that ffery is scum with Nacho town means ffery is a bad choice of lynch.

I don't really follow this. Why am I a bad choice of lynch?

Because the only person I can reasonably see as your partner is Nacho whereas I can see Nacho-scum and you-town. Also, you are the only one who shut down MSG as a lynch option - all of Penguin, Nacho, and Toomai pushed for MSG-scum and I think that scum are more likely to not have him townread because it takes away an easy lynch. I think MSG suspicion is unjustified and we see eye to eye on that so less likely that you are scum.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

Amrun, why do you think Toomai is the most useful flip right now? What's your take on F-16's breakdown?

Based on F-16's analysis, I tend to agree that fferyllt isn't a good lynch. I'm very interested to hear JacobSavage's thoughts on the game, given my most recent read on MSG.

Do you disagree with Amrun that Toomai is a good choice of lynch? What is your most recent read on MSG? Who do you think is the best choice of lynch right now?

[fferyllt]

Based on your Nacho-scum model (surely you have one, don't you?), what would he do as scum if he replaced into a scum slot with Toomai as his buddy and Toomai is under imminent threat of being lynched? Would he bus? Would he try to divert the lynch? If so, who would he try to divert it to?

My nacho-scum model has some holes. Open 527 still stings.

I think Nacho-scum replacing into midgame would be working under constraints he might be able to avoid if he played a game from the start. So, bussing a partner who is under fire isn't out of the question. But, if he and toomai were partners I'd expect him to be making more noise about some of the alternative lynches.

[Toomai]

If you think I'm a good flip, then go ahead, I'm kind of a distractional detriment to town right now.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

If you think I'm a good flip, then go ahead, I'm kind of a distractional detriment to town right now.

If you are town, allowing yourself to be mislynched is pro-scum. In a Mini, scum need to mislynch 4 townies to win. Town need to lynch 3 scum. So far, we are at 1-1. Why give up and make it 2-1?

If you don't want to play, the ideal solution is to ask to be replaced, not lynched.

[JacobSavage]

@F-16 why do you CONSTANTLY refer to Philosophers stone?

[Toomai]

give up

I'm not giving up. I'm saying that if the purpose of my lynch is for information, then I'm fine with that and won't bother wasting time defending against it.