Mini 1492: Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets GAME OVER

[penguin_alien]

Umm Toomai was scum in that game if you see similar posting here how does that make it town here instead of scum?

No, he's town here. As F-16 linked. Nacho reads him as scum and is wrong. Meanwhile, he's wandering around there with no clue and using his percentage points gimmick, just like here. And like I said, I would expect scum being run up to know who the next most viable lynch is without detouring onto JS.

[RachMarie]

http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=31030 this is the game on the link scum game that Falcon posted. Dude is scum in this game the Mafia Encryptor.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

Umm Toomai was scum in that game if you see similar posting here how does that make it town here instead of scum?

No, he's town here. As F-16 linked. Nacho reads him as scum and is wrong. Meanwhile,

he's wandering around there with no clue and using his percentage points gimmick, just like here.

And like I said, I would expect scum being run up to know who the next most viable lynch is without detouring onto JS.

The bolded was extensively discussed by Nacho, ffery, and me earlier. Why no comment then?

Pedit: Rach, I posted several links. PA must have been referring to the town games.

[RachMarie]

Since your comments were about the scum game that just finished, I figured that was what you meant by same as.

[RachMarie]

I can definitely see a resemblance tween that scum game and here.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

Okay, but that is not really a good way of using meta. The "resemblance" could just be his personality. That's about as good as Marquis claiming that you blaming your inactivity on being sick.

A better way to think about it is whether you read his town games and whether his behavior here matches up more closely with the town games or the scum one.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

*Marquis claiming that you blaming your inactivity on being sick is indicative of you being scum.

[penguin_alien]

And the linked town game and here, RachMarie?

F-16, I was focusing on other things. I've had times in the past where I don't mesh with people's styles and thought they were scum for it and been wrong; other aspects of this game in general and Toomai's posts in particular made me scum-read him.

P-edit: who's sick?

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

No one is sick. I was explaining to Rach that using a single data point as the basis of a meta-read is flawed. Marquis apparently played a game where Rach was scum and sick, then started scumreading Rach here because she was sick.

What other things were you focussing on? Can you talk about those other aspects of the game that made you scumread Toomai? At what point in the game did you read Toomai's town games? How much of them did you read?

[RachMarie]

ok I misunderstood, I thought you were saying he was scum Falcon and that PA misunderstood you.

I already thought Toomai was scum based on his game here before you shared the links.

[RachMarie]

PA NS, his son, and I have all been sick off and on for the past several weeks, plus I had a bad knee injury and severe tooth pain which resulted in a dentist removing 2 teeth (one whole, one partially gone).

[penguin_alien]

Sorry to hear about that, RachMarie; hope everyone's on the mend soon!

F-16, I've explained why I was voting Toomai in my ISO. You can also see there where my focus was during this day phase.

I read some of the town game you linked, mostly in ISO mode.

[fferyllt]

Okay, I'd like to hear Nacho's and ffery's take on it before we make a final decision. Toomai not voting Penguin who is the only counterwagon is puzzling me as well.

My preliminary thoughts on this are that the level of certainty he exhibited in his scum game is much higher than what he did in his town games. In his town games, there were times when he just felt lost and didn't know what to do. In his scum game, I don't see that tendency. He casts a vote on the L-2 wagon immediately upon replacing in. He seems sure of what he wants and where to place his votes. He has a "scummy" read, a "scummish" read, and a null read in his initial catchup with the rest of them being null town or town to some degree. It certainly looks like someone who is image-conscious in that he needs to provide scumreads, nullreads, and townreads. In this game I see none of it. He doesn't seem to give a crap about who is a "scumread" and who is a "townread." His list contains all nulls and he seems a lot more lost and uninformed.

Nacho, I find your certainty about Toomai flipping scum very troubling. In this game, you were sure that Toomai was scum and were wrong. Yet, here you show not the slightest hesitation in saying that he is scum. If I strongly ead someone as scum when they were town, I think I would be a bit more wary about scumreading them immediately in the next game and wonder how much of it is a playstyle issue and how much they naturally play scummily.

---

I want to hear what ffery thinks as well but I am don't feel good about lynching Toomai based on my meta-read.

I am going to reread through Amrun's case and note his interactions with Stubbs. She makes a lot of good points about his in-game behavior which undermine my meta-read but I'd like to go over each point in detail so we know we are making the right decision.

15 posts and a game where he replaced in during the final 10 pages. I'm not sure how that's going to compare to a game where he's scum from the start. It's definitely different from his other games. Less moving the vote around, but at that point in a game there aren't as many places to move a vote and it looked like town had pretty firm ideas about where they were going next mostly, and as scum the options probably seem more limited than they really are. Interesting to see that he did keep at least the semblance of his processes in that game.

[fferyllt]

I can definitely see a resemblance tween that scum game and here.

What resemblance are you seeing?

[RachMarie]

Righto, D1 votes.

Player	Game start	StubbsKVM claim (257)	JW claim (306)	LnGrrrR claim (409)	Final vote
Syryana	LnGrrrR (2), JW (3), StubbsKVM (3)	JW (4)	unvote	MSG (1), Marquis (4)	Marquis (4)
penguin_alien	Amrun (1), Marquis (1), unvote , StubbsKVM (6)	JW (2)	unvote	StubbsKVM (3)	StubbsKVM (2)
fferyllt	StubbsKVM (4)	unvote	JW (6)	unvote	[no vote]
JasonWazza	Amrun (3)				Amrun (1)
StubbsKVM	Marquis (4)				Marquis (2)
Amrun	CDb (1), Marquis (3), MSG (1), LnGrrrR (2), StubbsKVM (2)	LnGrrrR (1)			LnGrrrR (1)
LnGrrrR	RM (1), Marquis (2)	JW (5)	unvote , Marquis (4)	StubbsKVM (1), unvote , Marquis (6)	Marquis (6)
Toomai	LnGrrrR (1), Marquis (3), JW (2)	Marquis (4)			Marquis (3)
MSG	Amrun (3), unvote			Marquis (5), StubbsKVM (1)	StubbsKVM (1)
F-16_Fighting_Falcon	JW (1), StubbsKVM (5)	JW (2)		StubbsKVM (2), unvote , Marquis (7)	Marquis (7)
RachMarie	Marquis (4)				Marquis (1)
Marquis	Toomai (1), Amrun (4), CDb (2), Amrun (4), RM (1)			LnGrrrR (3), unvote , JW (2)	JW (1)
ChannelDelibird	Amrun (2), LnGrrrR (3), StubbsKVM (1)	unvote , LnGrrrR (2), JW (3)	LnGrrrR (2)	Marquis (5)	Marquis (5)

Columns named by event that started them; last column shows final votes, not vote changes. Random votes counted. unvotes noted. Wagon positions noted.

dead

,

conf-town

,

self-conf-town

What I see when I look at this:

• Three people (JW, Stubbs, and RM) never changed their votes throughout the day. JW claims he scumread Amrun, but still needs to explain why. Stubbs confirmed his vote once throughout the day with 242; RM kinda did with 264.
  
• fferyllt is the only person to not vote for Squilly/Marquis at some point, aside from JW.
  
• Something's bugging me about how Syryana's votes on the two claiming wagons and the lynching wagon are all in about the same place (midpoint/just before midpoint).

271 where he says Jason has been more helpful doesn't sit right either. Jason had not done anything up until that point other than promise reads.

That was my point. I felt Marquis had done less than promise reads.

How so? Marquis had at that point provided reads and explained her read on Rach in 222.

That was one very specific meta note. Aside from that he had posted two one-liner reads ("Rach is scum", "Feg is probably scum") with no promise of explanation.

Like this a nice handy chart that makes him look at towny

[RachMarie]

err EBWOP ALL towny not at towny

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

15 posts and a game where he replaced in during the final 10 pages. I'm not sure how that's going to compare to a game where he's scum from the start. It's definitely different from his other games. Less moving the vote around, but at that point in a game there aren't as many places to move a vote and it looked like town had pretty firm ideas about where they were going next mostly, and as scum the options probably seem more limited than they really are. Interesting to see that he did keep at least the semblance of his processes in that game.

So, you are still saying Toomai and Penguin are scum?

[fferyllt]

Rach he has posted that kind of chart in town games. He's also used the same color scheme in his reads list, and the color scheme ties back to his graphed, quantified reactions to posts.

He pretty much has to show that kind of work when he's scum unless he wants to drop it when he's town.

[fferyllt]

15 posts and a game where he replaced in during the final 10 pages. I'm not sure how that's going to compare to a game where he's scum from the start. It's definitely different from his other games. Less moving the vote around, but at that point in a game there aren't as many places to move a vote and it looked like town had pretty firm ideas about where they were going next mostly, and as scum the options probably seem more limited than they really are. Interesting to see that he did keep at least the semblance of his processes in that game.

So, you are still saying Toomai and Penguin are scum?

It's shaken my read up. I'm working through the other reasons for thinking he's scum to see what that case looks like sans meta component.

What are you thinking?

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

I think we should lynch Nacho.

UNVOTE:

by the way. I'll think about this.

[fferyllt]

Oh god.

I better dump the wifom bucket and start fresh.

[Nexus]

Votecount 3.5:

Toomai (3)-

Nachomamma8, Amrun, JasonWazza

fferyllt (1)-

JacobSavage

penguin_alien (2)-

fferyllt, Toomai

Nachomamma8 (1)-

penguin_alien

Not voting (2)-

F16_Fighting_Falcon, RachMarie


With 9 alive it takes 5 to lynch. Deadline is at 10pm BST Sunday 6th October 2013. That's in uh...13 hours.

[JasonWazza]

With 9 alive it takes 5 to lynch. Deadline is at 10pm BST Sunday 6th October 2013.

That's in uh...13 hours.

Those of you that are dumb fucks and are disbanding the fucking wagon, read the bolded.

[penguin_alien]

Fine. Better an iffy lynch than no-lynch.

VOTE: Toomai

L-1

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

7 more hours. I don't see the point in waiting till 5 minutes before deadline.

VOTE: Toomai