Mini 1501: We're On A Boat! (END?! results inside)

[pitoli]

LolWagons has been prodded!

[SpyreX]

I can see why the neighborhood would make town-NotSci freaking paranoid.

Except he wasn't - until there was a wagon.

And you don't think that seeing other people voting and expressing concerns might fan niggles and reservations into flames?

If there's a difference or a revaluation of things (see SK) sure. That happens all the time. There is an ebb and flow.

What we saw was something that was

from the beginning

becoming a vote only when there was traction. That's not niggles and reservations, thats scum or lazy. Which is why I'll skip ahead in answering:

So NS is scum?

I'm not convinced of that. However, if I had a bullet you'd see little pieces of NS brainstem all over the thread. I'd rather lynch for usefulness then spite right now because I know I'm too close to judge that entirely rationally.

Well that happened quicker than I thought.

Mod:

Apologies for the prods - I don't need V/LA, I just need to get off my arse and post more. Steps are being taken.

Re: Spyrex: The below from CTD interests me. I've turned the scenario over a couple of times in my head and it doesn't quite feel like a consistent mentality from Spyrex.

The big issue for me here is that you're calling Brian

town

while at the same time stating that he should be lynched later on. If you're against lynching him today for stated reasoning that you think he is town, why are you preemptively in favor of lynching him later? Again, the "we could town-sweep" argument is hogwash, because a mislynch or two has zero bearing on Brian's alignment.

Ffery - why YYR?

I dont know why I'm having such a hard time explaining this and why it makes me want to choke someone but i'll try again.

Lets pretend there's a game, and there's a guy being a stud. The towniest town that ever towned. Then you lynch a framer. Then you find a cop's breadcrumbs clearly saying mr town is guilty.

Does he get lynched? You bet your ass - unless the town wins before it gets to that point. You dont leave dangling things like that around at lylo, because they lose games. Now, if you think he's town you keep him around just long enough to try and let him finish it off before he has to die.

Millers are a lot like that. There's a lot of scenarios where Brian has to go, but none of those change

that I think he's town

. He can't be here at lylo. So, either he dies or we win before that point.

Which kind of ties into this ball of garbage once again:

I'm not sure what glasses you're using when you read my posts but lets get one thing clear: Being cognizant of something that will happen is not the same as being in favor of it. It is in no way shape or form a leap or a Nostradamus prediction that Brian will end up dead unless the game is in a state where that doesn't need to happen. So, go ahead and drink your own hogwash if you think that the game state doesn't have any affect on the lynch.

And never, never ever did I make any statements about Brian's alignment. He's town, but that doesn't change the fact down the road. This isn't even car science, much less rocket science.

The essence of this is still "Brian is town, but if the game gets to a certain stage (i.e. not a clean sweep), he needs to die", and it still doesn't make any sense.

Nope. I'm not playing speak and spell. If you dont see why I think he's scum from a post you are quoting you're either being willfully obtuse or *gasp* dont care enough to look. Its almost like its a trend.

Don't give me that crap. I hate it when people play "I see something that you don't see" in mafia. All you've had to say about Maestro is that he's lazy and needs to "step up or die". That's awfully thin reasoning to say that Empire is "probably scum", particularly when the "lazyness" in question on Maestro's part has resulted in dropping out.

There's not a "defense". There's nothing to defend. What I did say, and just reiterated is that notscience is lying. The original statement was a lie. End point. You either think I am lying about his lie, or telling the truth. End point.

So NS is scum?

Spyre's neighborhood with notscience and the interactions regarding it are actually solidifying my townread on the former.

I actually empathize with this to a degree. While I find aspects of it hair-raisingly asinine (Spyrex suggesting that a town/town neighborhood is "far more likely" than a town/scum neighborhood, Spyrex anticipating a fake neighbor claim), the manner of the claim did strike me as the first thing out of Spyrex's mouth that feels more likely to come from town than scum.

You know what, I'll pretend for a minute you're going to actually read the words before I get to the heart of this.

A Maestro wagon D1 is lazy. Maestro, as owner of the slot, did nothing. Empire came in and managed in one post to say very little concrete with a lot of feelings (and junk) that just magically happened to coincide with a wagon that sprung up as he was rereading. Masterful. More importantly,

one has nothing to do with the other

. Maestro=nothing=bad. Empire=words=bad. One feeds into the other because its the same slot but that read is entirely from Empire.

Now, I get to do something I don't think I've ever done before because you've got this knack for getting right under my skin.

Even with taking the last year mostly off, I am still one of the most prolific posters on this site. There's a couple handfuls, if that, players that have actually played more games than I have. I've been active in the running of this site, moderating and

research

. I've been around long enough to remember the great neighbor versus mason discussions because, even then, all it REALLY was was a scare tactic to make sure they weren't confirmed. In all of my games I can count the number of times neighbors have been mixed on one hand. I'm not new to this block even a little bit.

You add to that the simple fact that a no daytalk neighborhood is FAR more useful as a tool for town then scum and, every time, I'm gonna bank on town coming out of the gate until proven otherwise. Kind of like the default state of the game.

And setting up to bait a fake neighbor claim? That is a low-risk high-reward maneuver. If I'm thinking, I'd suggest that in every single neighborhood ever.

So, you can take your "asinine", fold it up into a nice sandwich and take a big bite. And then choke on it. This ivory tower you like to sit in is kinda flaky and falling apart. Maybe you should come down and join the plebs.

-----

@CDB, Ffery, SK:
Help. I want to see some direction here and its time to start pulling the cart like good horsies. Kaze's new pendulum swing is starting to give me some seeerious doubts. Sell me on a wagon or tell me why Kaze shouldn't die.

[SleepyKrew]

I need to reevaluate Kaze (and everything else) myself.

[fferyllt]

@CDB, Ffery, SK:Help. I want to see some direction here and its time to start pulling the cart like good horsies. Kaze's new pendulum swing is starting to give me some seeerious doubts. Sell me on a wagon or tell me why Kaze shouldn't die.

I haven't cared much for the Kaze wagon since its inception and I still don't care for it, especially since he decided to pull up his socks.

I posted my reasons for voting YYR earlier. Thoughts?

Empire also bothers me, but it's a subtle thing, unlike YYR's posts. More data could help.

[SpyreX]

@CDB, Ffery, SK:Help. I want to see some direction here and its time to start pulling the cart like good horsies. Kaze's new pendulum swing is starting to give me some seeerious doubts. Sell me on a wagon or tell me why Kaze shouldn't die.

I haven't cared much for the Kaze wagon since its inception and I still don't care for it, especially since he decided to pull up his socks.

I posted my reasons for voting YYR earlier. Thoughts?

Empire also bothers me, but it's a subtle thing, unlike YYR's posts. More data could help.

YYR kind of goes both ways. I can see where he's coming from in regards to Brians claim and Kaze's flip. I'd like a little more. On the surface, he's cleaner than Empire from the stance of fabricating to make it fit. There's no depth, but he's...trying? at least. 8 posts with no substance makes it hard to sell that without a smoking gun. Of course, I know I get jaded when I'm the focal point and that may be some of my Empire hate.

Kaze worries me because he was sword out before, but there hasn't been anything when I've fought tooth and nail to continue his lynch. He keeps agreeing with me and that makes me a little paranoid.

[fferyllt]

Fabricating to make it fit is how it comes off. Like I said, I expected at least one read to run counter to my thoughts because I feel like I've taken a shallow view of the game so far in some ways. The main events are almost mafia memes. The bulk of player attention going to stuff like whether to condemn hardcore lurking or not, what to make of a day 1 miller claim, OMG L-1 on page 2, etc seems lazy somehow.

[SpyreX]

Actually, and I'm tired and would like a set of eyes - what are the parallels of the main wagons today? Care to do a comparison?

[fferyllt]

Sure.

What do you mean by parallels of the main wagons?

[Brian Skies]

What is my trajectory on your claim? Kaze's too if you wish.

Your trajectory: You were involved pretty heavily in the early game trying to decide whether or not to believe my claim. You asked me questions, checked meta, and considered my newbiness. Aero's vote on me may have had something to do with it as well. The only issue I have with it is post 90, where you quote me telling Smudger not to over-complicate things. I'm still not understanding how you are believing me from that.

I'm reading you as town because you are actively engaging other players, generating discussion, and trying to formulate reads. You don't feel as hollow as you did as scum in Mismatched.

Kaze's trajectory: Although it's already been explained, I'll give you my perception. There was also deliberation on his part. He avoided taking a stance early on, but was convinced it was either town-motivated or scum-motivated. I inferred that he read my claim based on other people's reactions and his reaction to Aero's vote. He openly admits to this by post 146.

Plus, I think he's town. I don't know if I said this earlier, but he's been actively scumhunting and he's been extremely transparent. If there's any misgivings about his slot, it's that as a self-proclaimed aggressive player who loves wagons, he's not pushing his wagons very hard. To each their own though.

this is bad but the worst thing is there IS NO FUCKING VOTE WITH LIKE A POOL OF FOUR PEOPLE TO VOTE WTF IS THIS

One thing you should note about me is that I don't vote or move my vote when I should. It's a bad habit, but I don't care because I like to see people's reactions (your reaction reads town to me btw).

As far as why I'm not voting anyone yet, it's because I've been put in this awkward dilemma. I usually like to gauge early reads based on how people are reading the way I'm playing. The problem is that I claimed my role with a terrible opening post and I haven't done anything to seem town. On the contrary, I've been playing pretty poorly and I'm a miller. Although I want people to read me as town, I can't tell if it's because they legitimately believe me, buddying me, or trying to use my flip as an excuse to get towncred. On the other hand, I can't tell if people that are reading me as scum are trying to push a mislynch on me or if they're legitimately reading me as scum for my play. And then there's Spyrex, who isn't even reading me at all.

Because I've been having trouble scumreading the players thus far, I've been trying to townread players and sort by PoE. The reason I haven't voted for anybody is because I'm not leaning heavily on any person being scum yet. Furthermore, I feel there has been pretty good discussion being generated by other players such as SK and I haven't felt the need to pressure vote anyone (other players have already been doing it).

I've been playing pretty passively because of this and trying to make opinions based on other events of the game. This works for me anyways, because I hate Day 1 and I'm generally more passive anyways. Also, I haven't been following the thread very well due to school, taking on too many games, and other non-mafia related stuff that may or may not be related to real life stuff.

If Brian is scum, I don't think he came up with the miller strat all on his own as he seems to be a newer player. My guess is that, if he's scum, a more experienced player suggested the claim to him and coached him on how to do it ahead of time.

Or I'm a miller and I decided to claim with my opening post.

It almost feels like a WIFOMy dare to get him lynched. As far as his scumhunting goes, it's all very surface-level / cursory and I just don't get a sense that he's strongly engaging with the thread.

It's not a dare. If you want me lynched, then push my lynch. I won't stop you.

As far as not strongly engaging the thread, you're right. I've already explained this a few times. I took a heavy game load and I considered this game low priority based on prod timers and deadlines. I also have other non-mafia related stuff to worry about such as school and such. Weekdays I'll probably be busy. Weekends are my lifeline.

What I find interesting here is that you're assuming I thought you were scum claiming miller to begin with.

Rereading the thread, yes, it does seem like you were just pushing my claim.

FMPOV as the game was occurring, however, it did feel like you were pushing my lynch. Notscience voting me right after post 34 didn't help either. As for whether it's scum or town motivated, I judged it based on you saying you believe my claim without giving any reasoning. Three people consecutively say they believed my claim. You were one of them, and the other two have trajectories that are either clear or can be inferred. No matter how you look at it, it's suspicious.




Other thoughts:
-I'm still liking Plum for town. Her posts just feel town to me. Especially since she's trying to hit more underlying issues.
-SK feels town because I like her stance on attacking anything that moves.
-I'm also still liking CTD for town. He's taken a pretty hard stance of not believing my claim and he's the most outspoken about my play thus far. CTD has also been pushing other people and, generally, I'm liking the arguments he's been putting forth.
-I liked Lolwagons catch-up post. It felt town to me, especially his reaction to me not voting. As for CTD's argument against Lolwagon changing his vote, I disagree. If he doesn't like the way his wagon formed, then he needs to reanalyze what's going on. It feels town-motivated.
-The notscience-Spyrex mess is just whatever to me. There's no guarantee that both of them are town. This was confirmed by notscience, which means I get to read them independently of their role. I can't read notscience worth a damn, but notscience feels like scum to me, and the more people townread him based on his meta (which he wants to change anyways), the more skeptical I become. I don't like how easily swayed he was by CDB early on and I don't like his "obvtown" pleas. There's a weird little contradiction pointed out already in post 56 where he lists both me and aero as scum. His prevention of the early lynch on me could have been done by anyone.

Still debating Garmr, Empire, Spyrex.

[fferyllt]

Your trajectory: You were involved pretty heavily in the early game trying to decide whether or not to believe my claim. You asked me questions, checked meta, and considered my newbiness. Aero's vote on me may have had something to do with it as well. The only issue I have with it is post 90, where you quote me telling Smudger not to over-complicate things. I'm still not understanding how you are believing me from that.I'm reading you as town because you are actively engaging other players, generating discussion, and trying to formulate reads. You don't feel as hollow as you did as scum in Mismatched.Kaze's trajectory: Although it's already been explained, I'll give you my perception. There was also deliberation on his part. He avoided taking a stance early on, but was convinced it was either town-motivated or scum-motivated. I inferred that he read my claim based on other people's reactions and his reaction to Aero's vote. He openly admits to this by post 146.Plus, I think he's town. I don't know if I said this earlier, but he's been actively scumhunting and he's been extremely transparent. If there's any misgivings about his slot, it's that as a self-proclaimed aggressive player who loves wagons, he's not pushing his wagons very hard. To each their own though.

The quote I replied to in 90 didn't solidify my read, though I thought it was a good post and something I would have wanted to say if I were miller and reacting to Smudger's posts. It's just the point at which I decided to make my stance unambiguous.

[Brian Skies]

I see. You quoting it just seemed off to me.

Also, I forgot to mention YYR. I could be hypocritical and say he's scummy for the reasoning you provided. Considering how I've been playing this game, I owe it to him to at least come in, defend himself, and make a case for himself being town. But by PoE, he's not looking too good at all right now.

[fferyllt]

I see. You quoting it just seemed off to me.

Crystallizations and tangents tend to become artifacts in my ISO. I probably don't explain them as often or as well as I should, but I get data from how they affect (or don't affect) the flow of the game.

Also, I forgot to mention YYR. I could be hypocritical and say he's scummy for the reasoning you provided. Considering how I've been playing this game, I owe it to him to at least come in, defend himself, and make a case for himself being town. But by PoE, he's not looking too good at all right now.

What did you think of Empire's YYR read? What do you think of Empire in general?

[fferyllt]

VCA isn't really my thing, especially pre-flip, so I'm not sure how useful this is going to be.

I've bolded the votes by players I currently have on the scummy side of null.

Brian Skies: Garmr, Kazekirimaru, ChannelDelibird, CrashTextDummie, Aeronaut (L-2)
Garmr: Brian Skies, Smudger

NotSci unvoted Brian and brought the count down from L-1. Garmr, Kaze and CDB were RVS votes down prior to Brian's claim. After the claim, CTD, NS and Aeronaut voted. It could be due to the earliness of the game day, but it's notable to me that none of the players I have south of null had votes down at this point.

Maestro: fferyllt
notscience: Garmr
Aeronaut: notscience,

YYR

, Kazekirimaru, Smudger (L-3)
Brian Skies: ChannelDelibird, CrashTextDummie, Aeronaut
Garmr: Brian Skies

I think this was the high water mark of the Aeronaut wagon. All of the RVS votes on Brian moved off.

Maestro: fferyllt, Smudger, Kazekimaru
notscience: Garmr
SleepyKrew: notscience
Brian Skies: ChannelDelibird, CrashTextDummie
Kazekirimaru:

YYR

, SleepyKrew, Plum

Maestro wagon at high water mark. This wagon bled off votes from Aero/Sleepy. The Kaze wagon also started to develop steam at this point.


Maestro: Smudger
SleepyKrew: notscience
Garmr: Kazekimaru
Smudger: CrashTextDummie
Kazekirimaru:

YYR

, SleepyKrew, Plum, Garmr, SpyreX
Brian Skies: ChannelDelibird

High water mark for Kaze wagon. Interesting how many vanity wagons are going at this point.

Spyrex: LolWagons, Plum,

Empire

, Notscience
YYR: CrashTextDummie
Garmr: Kazekimaru
Kazekirimaru:

YYR

, SleepyKrew, Garmr, SpyreX
Brian Skies: ChannelDelibird

SpyreX and YYR wagons appear. SpyreX wagon pulls some votes that had been benched.

I toyed with the idea of bolding Smudger/Lolwagons, that's a null slot to me atm. CDB is also hovering around null. I like his posts but there aren't enough of them and I don't feel like he's scumhunting or pushing his vote with conviction. Parking the vote on Brian feels almost lazy.

[Brian Skies]

What did you think of Empire's YYR read?

I like his argument against YYR.

What do you think of Empire in general?

- If Brian is scum, I don't think he came up with the miller strat all on his own as he seems to be a newer player. My guess is that, if he's scum, a more experienced player suggested the claim to him and coached him on how to do it ahead of time.

I can see a veteran town player thinking this. But it feels like reaching to me.

- Brian / CTD are unlikely to be scum together given the strong policy-type push from the latter in the early game (wouldn't make sense for CTDscum to agree to the claim only to strongly push a lynch on him early, especially given the site's general antipathy towards miller claims - he's be committing to a hardbus too early).

I like this analysis.

- Smudger's ignorance of what a miller is supposed to be in #63 makes me think he's not scum with Brian either.

Ignorance can be faked.

Kazekirimaru:

Really not understanding why this dude has votes on him.

Pretty much all of his posts and the way he's approached arguments with various players have a "I have the higher moral ground"-type tone to them (ex: "you're being stupid" / "you're just wrong") which is far more likely to come from town than scum -- town are far more likely to have a greater attachment to arguments like the one he's having with SKrew because they want to be right / feel vindicated; scum just see these kinds of back and forths as a way to contribute but as nothing more. His progression from #62 to #100 based on the reasoning he provides in #146 is something that makes A LOT of sense from a player with his experience -- a lot of newer town players do tend to take into account interactions with their scumreads in this fashion / consider what other people have to say. His abrasive playstyle is something I consider a towntell as I'd expect him to conform to expected behavior as scum. His reaction to the wagon + his frustration that people are not listening to him in #337 reads incredibly genuine. The more and more I read this guy's posts, the more depressed I get that he was wagoned to L-2.

I've been liking Kaze as town thus far, so I don't really have an issue with this read as a whole. The only problem is that he doesn't understand why people were voting him. People thought he was scummy, so they pressured him. There could also have been scum voting him. It's nitpicking, but it's meh to me.

Other than that, it's mostly based on meta that I'm unfamiliar with. And it feels somewhat informed, but he might just be that strong of a player. His posts read like town posts and I would like for him to be town. But to be honest, I'm not confident in reading him at all, especially with such a small sample to base my read off of. Not to mention he replaced Maestro who just lurked all day. Regardless, the basis for his reads make sense to me. The null-read on Smudger especially reads genuine to me. I'm willing to call him town for now.

Regardless of his alignment, I feel like his reads list is pretty strong and should help people sort in some way.

[YYR]

In regards to my vote on Kaze, I can see where Kaze is gathering townreads from people. The matter in which he carries himself is rather confident and he appears proactive. This doesn't really convince me, though. I don't associate confidence with a town role PM, and it's much more related to the personality of the player. He explains away his scumminess simply by dismissing it as something he does as a player (I'm thinking specifically when questioned on his wagon hopping and his change of reads based on the mentality of other town players). It's not about framing them in a town mindset but appealing it to some character trait. It does little to appease my scumread because I have no reason to trust him when he says these things about himself. Even assuming it's true, the scum motivation to do these things still exist, and I can't leave that alone. His 'proactive' game feels cheapened when he constantly switches wagons, and it feels like he rarely follows through with questioning and ideas because of this.

Despite all of that, his recent post on Spyrex makes me look at my read again, mostly because his read on Spyrex seems very much more town motivated than scum motivated. It's already been brought up that Spyrex has a good history as a player, and I find it unlikely that scum would pass the opportunity to let the wagon go through when the repercussions of that wagon would most likely fall on other players. I'm willing to take a step back at the very least and reevaluate at a later time.

Unvote

I'm not seeing where the Spyrex wagon is coming from. I've kind of skimmed the thread and focused more on ISO's on relevant players right now since I missed a lot and wanted to reread a lot. Based on Spyrex's ISO, I'm not getting the huge scumread people are getting from him. Maybe I missed something along the way, but for him to be the leading (or second leading?) wagon seems disproportionate to what I've read from him. I'll do a more in-depth look at the thread itself, but eh, the guy looks town to me.

[SleepyKrew]

Oh wow I've been lazymode since Wednesday.
Will correct that today.

[notscience]

Ffery what are you thinking about night neighbors?

I really find it hard to believe we got duo-town neighbors.

[fferyllt]

Ffery what are you thinking about night neighbors?

I really find it hard to believe we got duo-town neighbors.

I would treat it as an opportunity to get a better read on the player and start from a neutral perspective. I hate letting set-up spec trump reads, though it is sometimes the right thing to do. But, going with set-up spec on day 1? Not me.

From a set-up perspective, though, a duo neighborhood is not overwhelmingly likely to be mixed alignment. A trio neighborhood, or multiple neighborhoods in the same game raise the likelihood of a scum player amongst the neighbors to near-certainty in my experience.

[pitoli]

Prodding Plum~~

[Kazekirimaru]

I have some business with Kaze, but I need Empire to post first.

I ponder what business that would be.

[Garmr]

I think I missed the boat here but which two players are neighbors.

[fferyllt]

notsci and SpireX

[Garmr]

I find spirex a null but I still don't think notsci is town.

[fferyllt]

This game is stalling pretty hard.

SleepyKrew, are you out of lazymode?

CDB, Empire, Plum some content would be nice.

[Empire]

Hey guys, just wanted to let you know that I'm back. Sorry for the long absence. Heading out to lunch right now but I will be fully caught up at some point today (fair warning: expect A Lot Of Massposting and I'm also hungover, it's gonna own).