NY 164: Maniacal Street Mafia (Anticlimatically finished.)

[penguin_alien]

In that case, apologies for the interruption. I'll hush now.

[PeregrineV]

Hmmm, nice predicament here. Reminds me of Cold war mafia.

And this is a Saturday post, meaning this may be it until Monday.

[mastin2]

One-Hundred-Eightieth Votecount

:

(First Votecount of Day Eight,

AKA, the "AP still mods this game, but makes little technical glitches. " votecount.

)

penguin_alien - 1 (Nachomamma8)

Not Voting - 3 (PeregrineV, penguin_alien, ffullisade)

With

4

alive, it's

3

to lynch.

Day Eight's deadline is Thursday, October 8th, @ 12:30 PM PST, which is in (expired on 2013-10-24 12:30:00).

If deadline were to hit now,

penguin_alien

would be lynched.

Spoiler: Changes from last votecount

penguin_alien - 1 (

Nachomamma8

)

Not Voting - 3 (

Nachomamma8

, penguin_alien, ffullisade, PeregrineV)

(People voted.)

Spoiler: Player Vote History D8

Nachomamma8: penguin_alien
PeregrineV:
penguin_alien:
ffullisade:

Spoiler: Vote History D8

On Fri, Oct 10/04/13 @ 5:09p,

Nachomamma8

votes

penguin_alien

in post 6343.

[ffullisade]

Hmmm, nice predicament here.

Reminds me of Cold war mafia

.

And this is a Saturday post, meaning this may be it until Monday.

How so?

[ffullisade]

Why Mara?

Who benefits from her not being in the game today?

Thoughts about no lynch?

[Nachomamma8]

Nacho, talk to me about PA's vote switch to you and then back to bulba near nightfall.


What was she thinking?

I think that her initial plan was to stall out until deadline and bring the day to a 4 alive tomorrow; she unvoted pretty late in the game because she started to think that Bulbazak was the bigger threat and she wasn't going to get him lynched in 4p if he brought her there since he's a roleblocker and she's just a goon (probably), and I think she took that route because she was looking to use plurality lynch to her advantage, considering the unvote came after Peregrine made the "good vote" comment to me.

[ffullisade]

Why would she have risked losing the bulba lynch?

[Nachomamma8]

I don't think there was ever a big risk of that.

[ffullisade]

Would also like your thoughts on my questions in 6354.

[Nachomamma8]

Why Mara?

Who benefits from her not being in the game today?

Thoughts about no lynch?

Mara probably because she voted Bulbazak early and stayed there, also because you and I were like hell no will never lynch. Mara kill also follows along the whole "Nacho is killing his detractors" line of thought; she might have been afraid of killing you because you were reading me as town, but it was a weird kill, so I don't really have a good handle on why she died.

Every one benefits from her being in the game, but I benefit the most from it.

I don't want to no lynch and have you dead.

[ffullisade]

Why do you think you are here at MYLO?

[Nachomamma8]

I felt like Nacho wasn't engaging the same way most of the rest of the town was.

I have 570 posts. Where the hell wasn't I engaging?

His reaction to my vote tipped his hand and made him try to mislynch me earlier than he'd obviously planned. Suddenly with half an hour before deadline he wants to talk about my theories? Sure, when he's afraid I might not help him lynch red scum. Especially his comment here:

That describes my mindset pretty solidly, minus the use of "mislynch". If you didn't want to lynch opposing scum, then of course I'm going to see if Bulbazak. Why wouldn't I? Otherwise I'm pretty fucking dead thanks to plurality rules, and that doesn't leave a beautiful MyLo the next day, especially if Bulba blocked scum and killed town.

He had no reason to think for certain we were at one red scum and one blue scum rather than 2:1.

Yet he suddenly wants to wagon me? That's a blue scum-last-man-standing attitude who'd rather see anyone but himself swing.

Why do you say that? Being a survivalist becomes less scummy as the days go on and the room for error dwindles.

Why wouldn't he block me that night? Answer: he probably did, and three kills went through, surprise, surprise. He blocked someone else the next night and saw only one kill. But he had to spin me as scum because I wouldn't drop the issue of him being protected from ThAd's vig shot. Seeing as I had been all over Seanald he knew he couldn't paint me red, so he went with blue based on the fact that I didn't think thezmon221 would be foolish enough to use a fake role claim his scum team had been caught using in a recent game with a significant overlap in player base. Which, yeah, I expect a certain level of competency from people around here. Waving a universal back-up claim in front of Slandaar as scum in that situation doesn't match up.

I see you trying to clear yourself with a Bulbazak block.
It's an interesting attempt.

So we have Bulbazak keeping me in his pocket as a mislynch. Funny, Nacho's doing the same thing. I come in Day One into a slot Nacho's reading as scum, and he figures out I'm town pronto. We go all the way to Day Six, and only then does Nacho even start to 'waver' on that read, saying:

I haven't been paying attention to you for the past few days, as you can probably imagine. I also didn't really waver on Bulbazak until that day (if i recall correctly), so I don't understand why this is scum mislynching town as opposed to town pushing who they think is scum and you don't post any reasoning to explain that.

(I can explain why I'm not blue, but really, if you consider my play here, unless you really think I'd sit around arguing with a teammate over a poor faked claim, I'd say it's pretty clear)

Why not?

as almost guaranteed town. Odds that he's try to slip a scum buddy in there? Pretty good.

He could have also posted genuine reads.

Then he's mostly not engaged with flipped blue scum. Since two were dead by the end of Day Two, there's not as much anyways, but he really doesn't engage with CTD after the show of the first day. He gets into it a bit WRT Rena, who he strongly pushes. Rena was scummy and suspect, but places like this:

I've engaged plenty with CTD and CTD's interacted plenty with me.
I'm 100% confident we've interacted more than you two!

[Nachomamma8]

I wasn't shot by red because I had Bulbazak as a strong townread. I wasn't shot by blue because I had penguin/CTD as strong townreads.

[ffullisade]

I wasn't shot by red because I had Bulbazak as a strong townread. I wasn't shot by blue because I had penguin/CTD as strong townreads.

I feel like Pere is here because either he's expected to mislynch or he's scum.

Peng is here because she's expected to be myslynched or she's scum.

I'm here because fill-in-the-blank. I think it's because I'm more likely to mislynch than Mara.

Why are you here?

[Nachomamma8]

I'm the mislynch! Peregrine is expected to wind up against me and you're the one penguin wants to lynch.
Peregrine couldn't be mislynched because everyone thinks he's town.
You can't be mislynched because everyone thinks your town (although it's not explicit).
Mara couldn't be mislynched after replace out business.
I'm a hard sell, but at least there's a possibility of it.

[fferyllt]

We are all last men standing today. Unless we nolynch. The survivalist arguments are p much shit at this point.

[ffullisade]

We are all last men standing today. Unless we nolynch. The survivalist arguments are p much shit at this point.

gah.

[ffullisade]

Mollie and I have been talking about this game off and on since before daybreak. We know how we want to vote. I'm holding off until everyone has had a chance to put their thoughts into the thread.

[penguin_alien]

I felt like Nacho wasn't engaging the same way most of the rest of the town was.

I have 570 posts. Where the hell wasn't I engaging?

I'm not talking about the whole game. Last day phase didn't feel like you were as dedicated to figuring out scum so much as figuring out the distribution. You perked up when you were under fire though.

His reaction to my vote tipped his hand and made him try to mislynch me earlier than he'd obviously planned. Suddenly with half an hour before deadline he wants to talk about my theories? Sure, when he's afraid I might not help him lynch red scum. Especially his comment here:

That describes my mindset pretty solidly, minus the use of "mislynch". If you didn't want to lynch opposing scum, then of course I'm going to see if Bulbazak. Why wouldn't I? Otherwise I'm pretty fucking dead thanks to plurality rules, and that doesn't leave a beautiful MyLo the next day, especially if Bulba blocked scum and killed town.

Yeah, but I'm not scum. So lynching me yesterday would have left you worse off, stuck with Bulbazak apparently blocking you and picking you off at his leisure.

Yet he suddenly wants to wagon me? That's a blue scum-last-man-standing attitude who'd rather see anyone but himself swing.

Why do you say that? Being a survivalist becomes less scummy as the days go on and the room for error dwindles.

Why not actually argue for your chosen lynch then? Vaguely going for a mislynch doesn't help. If you were a townie, being mislynched doesn't utterly destroy your side's hope for victory, but being lynched as last scum standing sure does.

Why wouldn't he block me that night? Answer: he probably did, and three kills went through, surprise, surprise. He blocked someone else the next night and saw only one kill. But he had to spin me as scum because I wouldn't drop the issue of him being protected from ThAd's vig shot. Seeing as I had been all over Seanald he knew he couldn't paint me red, so he went with blue based on the fact that I didn't think thezmon221 would be foolish enough to use a fake role claim his scum team had been caught using in a recent game with a significant overlap in player base. Which, yeah, I expect a certain level of competency from people around here. Waving a universal back-up claim in front of Slandaar as scum in that situation doesn't match up.

I see you trying to clear yourself with a Bulbazak block.
It's an interesting attempt.

So it's N5, there's no more than one blue scum left, red scum doesn't opt to block ThAd as NKs show. Cephrir and Bulbazak were pushing me as blue scum. Why wouldn't they block me? I contend that they would have. Yes, it's night action speculation, but it was bang on with Bulbazak being protected as far as I can tell.

So we have Bulbazak keeping me in his pocket as a mislynch. Funny, Nacho's doing the same thing. I come in Day One into a slot Nacho's reading as scum, and he figures out I'm town pronto. We go all the way to Day Six, and only then does Nacho even start to 'waver' on that read, saying:

I haven't been paying attention to you for the past few days, as you can probably imagine. I also didn't really waver on Bulbazak until that day (if i recall correctly), so I don't understand why this is scum mislynching town as opposed to town pushing who they think is scum and you don't post any reasoning to explain that.

First off, I'm town, so I know my lynch would be a mislynch. You say you haven't been paying attention to me--not sure why when we've been at fewer than ten players the last two days, me not being a high-volume poster aside. You going from town reading me to saying that if AK or I is scum it's better scum play than you've seen from us to flipping a coin to vote me is what lacks reasoning. Your stance on Bulbazak actually makes sense for scum; you also figured he was scum for the N3 shenanigans, but you wanted him around as an easy target to 'see the light' about down the road, hence pretending to town read him against all logic.

(I can explain why I'm not blue, but really, if you consider my play here, unless you really think I'd sit around arguing with a teammate over a poor faked claim, I'd say it's pretty clear)

Why not?

What motivation would I have to see a teammate fake claim, see town pick it apart, and give it any credence? If I were scum with him, knowing his history with having his scum teammate fakeclaim that role in a game with overlapping players, at the least I'd be distancing myself if not bussing outright.

as almost guaranteed town. Odds that he's try to slip a scum buddy in there? Pretty good.

He could have also posted genuine reads.

And he could have thrown darts at a board to pick his reads. Doesn't mean he did; it's more likely he called a buddy town when he could do so conveniently.

Then he's mostly not engaged with flipped blue scum. Since two were dead by the end of Day Two, there's not as much anyways, but he really doesn't engage with CTD after the show of the first day. He gets into it a bit WRT Rena, who he strongly pushes. Rena was scummy and suspect, but places like this:

I've engaged plenty with CTD and CTD's interacted plenty with me.
I'm 100% confident we've interacted more than you two!

Am I missing interactions between you two?

I wasn't shot by red because I had Bulbazak as a strong townread. I wasn't shot by blue because I had penguin/CTD as strong townreads.

I NK people who strong town read me as scum. If I were last blue standing, I'd have NK'd you over ThAd or Baezu on Night Five.

I'm the mislynch! Peregrine is expected to wind up against me and you're the one penguin wants to lynch.
Peregrine couldn't be mislynched because everyone thinks he's town.
You can't be mislynched because everyone thinks your town (although it's not explicit).
Mara couldn't be mislynched after replace out business.
I'm a hard sell, but at least there's a possibility of it.

I don't want to lynch ffullisade...?


Given that I don't see PV as possible scum, and ffullisade reads as sincerely trying to figure out where scum is today:

VOTE: Nacho

[Nachomamma8]

I'm not talking about the whole game. Last day phase didn't feel like you were as dedicated to figuring out scum so much as figuring out the distribution. You perked up when you were under fire though.

I figured out scum, so yeah that's pretty true.

Yeah, but I'm not scum. So lynching me yesterday would have left you worse off, stuck with Bulbazak apparently blocking you and picking you off at his leisure.

Boring.

Why not actually argue for your chosen lynch then? Vaguely going for a mislynch doesn't help. If you were a townie, being mislynched doesn't utterly destroy your side's hope for victory, but being lynched as last scum standing sure does.

I did argue for Bulba.
Getting lynched yesterday would mean that our chances for victory would plummet pretty low.

So it's N5, there's no more than one blue scum left, red scum doesn't opt to block ThAd as NKs show. Cephrir and Bulbazak were pushing me as blue scum. Why wouldn't they block me? I contend that they would have. Yes, it's night action speculation, but it was bang on with Bulbazak being protected as far as I can tell.

They probably blocked/tracked both of us and stances in thread don't really have anything to do with actual thoughts.

You say you haven't been paying attention to me--not sure why when we've been at fewer than ten players the last two days, me not being a high-volume poster aside. You going from town reading me to saying that if AK or I is scum it's better scum play than you've seen from us to flipping a coin to vote me is what lacks reasoning. Your stance on Bulbazak actually makes sense for scum; you also figured he was scum for the N3 shenanigans, but you wanted him around as an easy target to 'see the light' about down the road, hence pretending to town read him against all logic.

What part of "Peregrine town due to neighborhood, AK town due to replace out business, ffery/mollie town because I'm pretty good at reading both of them = bulbazak/penguin scum" don't you understand?

Doesn't mean he did; it's more likely he called a buddy town when he could do so conveniently.

Why?

Am I missing interactions between you two?

Probably, yeah.

I NK people who strong town read me as scum. If I were last blue standing, I'd have NK'd you over ThAd or Baezu on Night Five.

You couldn't NK me when you don't really have any room for mislynching.

[penguin_alien]

How do you figure blue scum couldn't afford a mislynch at N5/D6?

My take in your classification of us yesterday is 'PV town for neighborhood, ffullisade likely to agree with me since I've been calling them town and linking that town read to my supposed towniness, Bulbazak opposite scum, AK/MM and PA my final mislynch bait choices'

Why wouldn't CTD call a buddy town in the middle of that kind of strongly worded case? Otherwise he's just eliminated a swath of town/not blue scum as lynchable.

[Nachomamma8]

How do you figure blue scum couldn't afford a mislynch at N5/D6?

What?

My take in your classification of us yesterday is 'PV town for neighborhood, ffullisade likely to agree with me since I've been calling them town and linking that town read to my supposed towniness, Bulbazak opposite scum, AK/MM and PA my final mislynch bait choices'

You can say "mislynch bait choices" instead of "suspects" but it doesn't mean you have an actual point.

Why wouldn't CTD call a buddy town in the middle of that kind of strongly worded case? Otherwise he's just eliminated a swath of town/not blue scum as lynchable.

And looking town as fuck in the meantime.

[PeregrineV]

Hmmm, nice predicament here.

Reminds me of Cold war mafia

.

And this is a Saturday post, meaning this may be it until Monday.

How so?

Two things going on there.

http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 7#p3085757

One was that both teams killed ThAdmiral on night6. There was only two kills due to the vig.

The other was that the final Soviet mafia was BP, meaning scum couldn't kill him anyway.

My first question to everyone, do we think Marangal was a double kill, or a single kill?

And I haven't read yet, so if anyone's already stated it then TIA.

[penguin_alien]

At this point, I can't think of any role for blue scum that would balance red having three decent PRs with a fourth member. Maybe a JOAT with major powers, but it doesn't seem likely. If you think that's possible, we need to no-lynch. Otherwise I think it was a single kill. The Desperado shot on the other hand could be overlapping kills, as both teams would have motive to eliminate him, I suppose.

[ffullisade]

At this point, I can't think of any role for blue scum that would balance red having three decent PRs with a fourth member. Maybe a JOAT with major powers, but it doesn't seem likely. If you think that's possible, we need to no-lynch. Otherwise I think it was a single kill. The Desperado shot on the other hand could be overlapping kills, as both teams would have motive to eliminate him, I suppose.

Or Bulba blocked the Blue kill. Given the resurgence of your interest in the roleblocker theory, I've kinda thought that's what happened.

That's quite a hole in your speculation.