Open 521: Jungle Republic (Alright. We'll call it a draw)

[Lord Mhork]

The deadline is hereby suspended at 6 days until such a time that we get out replacements. Prods are frozen as well. A PM will be sent to everyone when we reconvene. Players are still permitted to post in thread and are encouraged to contact friends who might be interested in replacing in. The vote count will also be frozen.

[Alduskkel]

^That's unusual.

@elle: Okay, you obviously have no clue what I'm talking about. You told me to consider that Aeronaut might not be a wolf. If that's true, that means you and Om have to be wolves, which I don't think is the case.

[Lord Mhork]

Llamafluff replaces Aeronaut. Please give a lot of love.

In addition there is an adendum to the previous post. The vote count will not be locked, however I will leave the deadline freeze until I find a replacement for Om of the Nom as well.

PEDIT:
Apparently deadline freezes are not unusual. Learn something new every day.

[Lord Mhork]

Vote Count 4.05

BOOMSHAKALAKA (1) LlamaFluff
Alduskkel (0)
elleheathen (1) BOOMSHAKALAKA
LlamaFluff (2) Om of the Nom, Alduskkel
Yggdra Union (0)
Om of the Nom (1) elleheathen

Not Voting:

Yggdra Union

With 6 alive, it takes 4 to lynch.


V/LA-

Now I'm just seeking a replacement for Om of the Nom. Tell your friends!

Night falls in [FROZEN]

[Alduskkel]

Interesting replacement.

I'm aware deadline freezes aren't unusual, but freezing prods/votes was.

[Lord Mhork]

I had personally never heard of/seen a deadline freeze so I went with my gut. I have since corrected the vote count to not be frozen.

[LlamaFluff]

Kinda skimmed last little bit.

I actually should be most obvious town out of the ones who could be wolf because Aero apparently had no clue what was going on seer wise, when wolves would be fully aware of what is happening there.

If the goon gets votes they need to claim, any goon claim we don't lynch. Goon is playing for the 1-1-1 endgame, goon will only claim (since they will only be under pressure) if they are in the wolf group, where at that point they get a somewhat prisoners dilemma situation.

Actually I wonder if this is a forced draw if goon is in the four wolf group.

It is. Awesome.

@Goon - If you are elle/Ald/OOTN claim now I have a forced draw for you. Right now you need to lynch wolf, dodge the kill, lynch wolf and then lynch town. All while not getting lynched. Good luck with that. You have... minimum 67% chance draw though my way and you cant lose outside of wolf gamethrow.

Need to think about this. I almost want to say Ald is town on a competence argument since the N2 kill had claimed VT day one. Gut is making me want the OOTN vote though as competence I can call Ald town (although the VT claim wasn't exceedingly obvious) and 1023 from elle is not-wolf like.

[LlamaFluff]

Yeah I ran the numbers... goon claims today they are assured a draw if he hit wolf as long as the other wolf doesn't essentially make a move that force loses them the game.

Cant believe I replaced into a draw. That's a first.

[Yggdra Union]

Finally soneone who have a sense

But the point is that aero wasn't the only one who wasn't aware of the seer thing.
Om was unaware of it too.

Also we still have a chance if we lynch two wolves in a row.

3:1:2

3:1:1

2:1:1

2:1

[Alduskkel]

I don't think there's a draw situation in this game...?

[Alduskkel]

The special mechanics rules are as follows:
-The mafia

DO NOT

possess a night kill
-Seer receives results in Werewolf or Not Werewolf
-

Note the special endgame rules:

--The mafia or the werewolves win if they make up a full majority of the living players OR if they make up half and at least one protown role remains.
--If mafia and werewolves ever make up equal numbers with no protown players left, the mafia wins.
--The mafia wins if a day begins with 1 mafia goon, 1 werewolf, and 1 protown role.

[Yggdra Union]

And Om and Ald are wolves.

Read the thread.

Let us lynch om

for great justice

-Aegina

[elleheathen]

^That's unusual.

@elle: Okay, you obviously have no clue what I'm talking about. You told me to consider that Aeronaut might not be a wolf. If that's true, that means you and Om have to be wolves, which I don't think is the case.

No, I asked you why that made you think wolf when it made me think mafia.

[elleheathen]

And Om and Ald are wolves.

Read the thread.

Let us lynch om

for great justice

-Aegina

Yesplz.

[Alduskkel]

No, I asked you why that made you think wolf when it made me think mafia.

TK being on 3 town wagons makes me think he's scum, but that's not specifically related to why I think he's a wolf. You can check my iso for why I think he's a wolf specifically.

@Aegina: Why's Om scummier than Aeronaut?

[Yggdra Union]

Uh nvm my number.
I forgot something.

Also llama isn't mafia if anyone realized yet.

[Yggdra Union]

I'm telling you that aldus is mafia, not areo/llama.

Just look how shows keen interest in mafia's wincon and mafia's benefit.
-L

[Yggdra Union]

How he shows

[LlamaFluff]

I don't think there's a draw situation in this game...?

Game stalls at 4P realistically here. The way I see it:

We lynch wolf today. If the last goon is not "cleared" we know who wolves are. That means we are probably headed to a 2:1:1 where at that point the game just stops as it probably loses for wolf or mafia to lynch. The only way we can actually win is for the wolf to hit mafia tonight. Which basically means they just kill the least likely slot to be mafia because that forces in the draw.

So its drawn as long as we hit a wolf today. I would rather strip out our win chances and take what essentially will be a guaranteed draw if it means we cant lose.

Its a draw. The game will just no lynch (by force) forever at F4.

I'm telling you that aldus is mafia, not areo/llama.

Just look how shows keen interest in mafia's wincon and mafia's benefit.
-L

Problem is that just about everyone familiar with this setup know that as well, that's why its a drawn situation.

[Yggdra Union]

Yeah I forgot that scum will force nl tomorrow
When I realized that it made me sad.
-L

[LlamaFluff]

Also interesting if wolf is one of Adul/OOTN/elle they are 100% guaranteed a draw because wolves need the goon alive to force the draw as there are suddenly three confirmed not-wolf players.

If one of you three are the goon you need to immediately claim. If you don't, you basically are resigning to a loss. Even if its one of the "not wolf" players they may want to claim because wolf still loses ground with a kill of mafia.

@YG - Im happy enough finding a forced draw in a situation where we realistically need massive massive help from scum to possibly win. Least happy about this are going to be wolves who up until just now probably thought they had this one won.

[Alduskkel]

I don't get it. Once we get to 4p why don't we just lynch a Werewolf? Then it's 3p -- 2 Town and 1 Mafia.

[Alduskkel]

Also, I'd like to remind you that the rule is "play to win" not "play to not lose."

[Alduskkel]

Also... even if the last Mafia is not one of the confirmed not-Wolves, the pool if we lynch a wolf today is still 2 -- enough for the last wolf to hide in.

As an example, suppose elle claims Mafia. That reduces our pool to 3 -- myself, Om, and LF. If we lynch LF (who is clearly a wolf), then Om (who is clearly the other wolf if elle has claimed Mafia) will kill either YU or Boom. Let's say he kills YU.

That would mean the next Day consists of myself, Om, Boom, and elle. Om can hypothetically attempt to get me lynched instead of himself, at which point he wins by NKing elle. Alternatively, we the town can lynch Om and then lynch elle and win.

[LlamaFluff]

Also, I'd like to remind you that the rule is "play to win" not "play to not lose."

I would rather take a forced draw than rely on wolf playing badly to have a chance at winning. There is a point where playing to your win condition means playing to not lose. I will take a massive chance at the half point over a near zero chance of the no point.

I don't get it. Once we get to 4p why don't we just lynch a Werewolf? Then it's 3p -- 2 Town and 1 Mafia.

Because if mafia is at all worried about their chances of winning, or if they have claimed, they just back the no lynch. This is just endgame mechanics 101. Mafia should be happy with a draw as they need two correct lynches AND to avoid a kill. Wolves want mafia alive so if they get in trouble they can force a no lynch. We at this point basically need three correct lynches in the correct order in such a scenario where if we even run up last mafia we cannot possibly win.

I want a near 100% draw, even if it means we cant win.